Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 2458 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #49,141
  • Jul 31, 2014 8:26am Jul 31, 2014 8:26am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} yeh I get all that... thanks anyway
.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 25 KB
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #49,142
  • Jul 31, 2014 9:12am Jul 31, 2014 9:12am
Quoting Swis
{quote} 5-8 pip range? oh, you guise talking about the 5 pip pullback system? Finally at my level I see... just jesting: I thought fti mentioned the usual range of his trades were 3-7 candles. That's roughly the same # in the scenarios I get in my trades, if they're any good that is. Please don't be rigid and count 3-7 candles to make plays. PA shapes up differently, so watch it. Just keep playing with the market, & you'll eventually be guided to think when to make plays & when to sit out unless you use kamikaze scouts(gamble). Fti mentions...
fti says that an impulse is btw 3-7 candles and c. 50 pips move - needs to be nice looking to show strength I guess

Leigh mentions about keeping basis 5-8 pips away from current price in PB.
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #49,143
  • Jul 31, 2014 9:13am Jul 31, 2014 9:13am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} . {image}

nope - lost me with picture - ???????????????
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #49,144
  • Edited 10:00am Jul 31, 2014 9:20am | Edited 10:00am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} nope - lost me with picture - ???????????????
you understood wilder's table?

try visualizing the table in the market

take some time to explore and study that. i am still discovering things on the thread everytime i read it again. you have to understand that when fti started this thread and moved on to where it is today, one of his concerns is that people may abuse the information freely given and just package it into system, summary, etc to sell. so, a lot of things here needs work and thinking because those people who just want to abuse will not spend that effort and they will probably try fishing here and there.

this thread is already a summary of 26+ years experience of a trader condensed into forum. to his best effort, he presented his experience on a forum and plus the work of people who came before him to learn. the whole thread is a summary of so many peeps. that being said, nothing still beats face to face verbal instructions. this aside, yet there are people who wants a summary of the summary. i can see peeps further down the road who will want a summary of the summary of the summary.

let me then help them summarize in one sentence

the 3 components to be successful: market structure, capitalization and you.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #49,145
  • Jul 31, 2014 9:26am Jul 31, 2014 9:26am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} you understood wilder's table? try visualizing the table in the market

I understand that any loss takes % bigger to make back - -so to rescue some will take a larger party - is that your point?
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #49,146
  • Jul 31, 2014 9:34am Jul 31, 2014 9:34am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} fti says that an impulse is btw 3-7 candles and c. 50 pips move - needs to be nice looking to show strength I guess Leigh mentions about keeping basis 5-8 pips away from current price in PB.
There you are. Not sure where Leigh gets her keeping 5-8 pips basis away from current price. She's a math person, though, her excel sheet had me dazzled.

Now if you know what an impulse wave should ideally look like--based on fti's description of strength & niceness, shouldn't you be scanning for those initially? Can you tell what the difference of a real impulse wave and what a fake/distorted formation of one would be? Any wave can move 50 pips north or south, but what separates the legitimate moves from the fake ones?
  • #49,147
  • Jul 31, 2014 9:41am Jul 31, 2014 9:41am
anyone on this jap horse? suspected resting place 102.50 which me may look to buy a stable to house this sexy horse
Attached Image
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #49,148
  • Jul 31, 2014 10:02am Jul 31, 2014 10:02am
Quoting Jacque
anyone on this jap horse? suspected resting place 102.50 which me may look to buy a stable to house this sexy horse {image}
very very sexy horse be careful though, seems price not like 103 for now
I'll wait until it shows on the 5 mins because right now it looks like shit there; I'm at work, so like can't manage positions.
  • #49,149
  • Jul 31, 2014 10:07am Jul 31, 2014 10:07am
Quoting Swis
{quote} very very sexy horse I'll wait until it shows on the 5 mins because right now it looks like shit there; I'm at work, so like can't manage positions.
becareful though, the usd bull undertone seems still be the soup of the day, so my bias for now is to look for opportunities to buy usd
got a feeling though if it wants to go down, 102.5 seems a good place to park and is a good place for me to maybe build a stable, see how it goes, might end up building a palace instead

happy working
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #49,150
  • Jul 31, 2014 10:10am Jul 31, 2014 10:10am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} becareful though, the usd bull undertone seems still be the soup of the day, so my bias for now is to look for opportunities to buy usd got a feeling though if it wants to go down, 102.5 seems a good place to park and is a good place for me to maybe build a stable, see how it goes, might end up building a palace instead happy working
Eh, I can try to out scalp that range of pips, but it seems that's always risky tenure for me--mostly due to the assumption I think there would be continuation of range, so I try not engage. Becayse mkt, along with fti has shown me all about ASSuME lols
  • #49,151
  • Jul 31, 2014 4:30pm Jul 31, 2014 4:30pm
Quoting alexandria
{quote} sorry: pg 86 I was just trying to understand what was written...... and did not get that one - got prior based on martingale I was working on 5-8 pip range that Leigh mentioned.... Not sure how you know where it will PB in reality as price can do what it wants: I am guessing swings sweep zones after big moves supp/res areas candle patterns
I'm using pivots...actually I'm adopting FTIs trading philosophy and integrating it into my pivot trading....

For me that is: 1) Mindset (stay, sharp and focused, do not lose the price, and don't lose yourself in it)
2) No stops loss orders because the price swings
3) Re average to rescue - the welders table is shown for you to see how much you need to earn for each % of capital lost...so don't lose capital, only lose your profits if you must
4) Position size - do not over leverage - protect your capital

5) And always KISS (keep it simple, stupid)

Oh and read the "Beat the forex dealer book", some things that FTI says are mentioned in the book, also there is an excellent addendum at the end of the book about money management...
  • #49,152
  • Aug 1, 2014 3:01am Aug 1, 2014 3:01am
Quoting merquise
{quote} I'm using pivots...actually I'm adopting FTIs trading philosophy and integrating it into my pivot trading.... For me that is: 1) Mindset (stay, sharp and focused, do not lose the price, and don't lose yourself in it) 2) No stops loss orders because the price swings 3) Re average to rescue - the welders table is shown for you to see how much you need to earn for each % of capital lost...so don't lose capital, only lose your profits if you must 4) Position size - do not over leverage - protect your capital 5) And always KISS (keep it simple,...

thanks for your reply...very much appreciated

I am still confused about rescue - some people from thread past seem to rescue always but fti picks out a dead in the waters scenario =no rescue (or rescue only portion nearer to current PA) so I need to maybe read more and learn it for myself in the doing of it .. some people talk about rescue in a way that I would call attack....

If I enter scout --> he is not in profit - I think I can still enter checker but never attack until foreign capital on BOTH (not just 1 in profit)....

entering scout in 1st PB when you expect abc seems weird to me as price will most likely go against me (or not) ... so do not quite get that bit either....I know scout should be very small - do not want to be overexposed

I need to try out the rescue to understand it better and get feel for it... until then do not think I shall appreciate its power .. I can already see risks ......


thanks again....thanks for book tip
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #49,153
  • Aug 1, 2014 3:11am Aug 1, 2014 3:11am
Quoting Swis
{quote} There you are. Not sure where Leigh gets her keeping 5-8 pips basis away from current price. She's a math person, though, her excel sheet had me dazzled. Now if you know what an impulse wave should ideally look like--based on fti's description of strength & niceness, shouldn't you be scanning for those initially? Can you tell what the difference of a real impulse wave and what a fake/distorted formation of one would be? Any wave can move 50 pips north or south, but what separates the legitimate moves from the fake ones?
I think she means in PB you want to put in enough troops to get basis 5-8 pips from current price in a pair that you know will give you the 5-8 pips you need for rescue... well that is how I read it

.. that all depends on what you mean by impulse.... is it wave that makes HH in uptrend?.... or ....

Elliott .. wave with 5 waves...3 impulses in main direction and 2 x PB with PB variations in type & time....... etc etc

fti talks about it in terms of acceleration..... velocity.... time../distance.. I think
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #49,154
  • Aug 1, 2014 3:15am Aug 1, 2014 3:15am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} . {image}

I get what your picture is trying to say --it's Wilder's table...you are right, thank you, I will try to visualize it in market as I practice - great idea to have that in my mind....thanks again
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #49,155
  • Aug 1, 2014 3:52am Aug 1, 2014 3:52am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} thanks for your reply...very much appreciated I am still confused about rescue - some people from thread past seem to rescue always but fti picks out a dead in the waters scenario =no rescue (or rescue only portion nearer to current PA) so I need to maybe read more and learn it for myself in the doing of it .. some people talk about rescue in a way that I would call attack.... If I enter scout --> he is not in profit - I think I can still enter checker but never attack until foreign capital on BOTH (not just 1 in profit).... entering scout...

Hi alexandria

rescue/attack....... it is just trading/managing your situation.

try not to over analyze things, look for direction and if you are wrong just manage your way out with minimal loss or even turn to some profit, the hardest thing is to keep an open mind while trading especially if the initial part of the trade is badly timed, but over time and with practise you will learn to control these better.

first thing i look at when i am trading and it is badly timed is my emotions, if they are not were they should be i try to re-align them to a calm reasoning level.

emotions distort reality and make your do things at the wrong time.

there is no magic formula or equation that will save you or make you a great trader, you just need a mixture of different skills to survive.

regards

Phil.

Attached Image
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #49,156
  • Edited 10:28am Aug 1, 2014 8:53am | Edited 10:28am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} I think she means in PB you want to put in enough troops to get basis 5-8 pips from current price in a pair that you know will give you the 5-8 pips you need for rescue... well that is how I read it .. that all depends on what you mean by impulse.... is it wave that makes HH in uptrend?.... or .... Elliott .. wave with 5 waves...3 impulses in main direction and 2 x PB with PB variations in type & time....... etc etc fti talks about it in terms of acceleration..... velocity.... time../distance.. I think
Actually that photo right above me that Phil showed is how you should be seeing trading.The impulse has to be a break out in a sense. fti discussed terrain, so I'm only assuming you know how it looks in order to understand which cycle, phase or where you're at in the market. Those are patterns. That's key, actually number 1 priority, is understanding where you're at. Unless you put in a good couple of hundred of hours or if you're slow like me,1000 hrs actually managing positions, you won't be able to determine that. And I don't mean vaguely understanding"Oh, it seems I'm in a range DERP", I mean in market maker detail like fti has described-- and you won't understand anything he says unless you're watching the charts. I fear you're spending too much time reading, when all of the answers are on the chart. As a matter of fact, I'd probably just test out the martingale on demo, with no fucks given, to see how you react to PA. Also, do you have an obsession with Elliot? What did fti tell you in the beginning of the thread? Also, I already know fti talks about velocity, acceleration & time. Can't you see that when you look at a candle's formation with your eyes? Or how multiple candles form? Why are some slow, and others fast? I had already brought this up a while ago with the video I made for you. You're not asking the charts any questions.Sorry, I'm not teacher, so I'm easily frustrated.I will buy all of Elliot's books from Amazon in a jiffy, if I had known he'd made millionaires out of everyone with that pattern. You're way over thinking all of this. This is why fti says most of his HS traders were better than his MBA ones at one point of the thread. Here watch this video, maybe it'll help.
Inserted Video
  • #49,157
  • Aug 1, 2014 9:45am Aug 1, 2014 9:45am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi alexandria rescue/attack....... it is just trading/managing your situation. try not to over analyze things, look for direction and if you are wrong just manage your way out with minimal loss or even turn to some profit, the hardest thing is to keep an open mind while trading especially if the initial part of the trade is badly timed, but over time and with practise you will learn to control these better. first thing i look at when i am trading and it is badly timed is my emotions, if they are not were they should be i try to re-align...
... thanks so much -I need to study this........
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #49,158
  • Aug 1, 2014 9:48am Aug 1, 2014 9:48am
Quoting Swis
{quote} Actually that photo right above me that Phil showed is how you should be seeing trading. Though, I personally don't play on single break out candles with wicks. The impulse has to be a break out in a sense. fti discussed terrain, so I'm only assuming you know how it looks in order to understand which cycle, phase or where you're at in the market. Those are patterns. That's key, actually number 1 priority, is understanding where you're at. Unless you put in a good couple of hundred of hours or if you're slow like me,1000 hrs actually managing...

... so why you all talk about impulse.....? to me that is what I know of an impulse and IMO the market does not do that very often as it is mostly correcting...
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #49,159
  • Edited 11:56am Aug 1, 2014 11:33am | Edited 11:56am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} ... so why you all talk about impulse.....? to me that is what I know of an impulse and IMO the market does not do that very often as it is mostly correcting...
Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?

Well, to be fair I saw corrections and impulsive waves much differently when I was newish, than I do now.
Along with public book patterns that are defined to be predictive in their nature.
This must be the learning curve fti talks about.
I will leave it at a rest, before I punch my monitor. All of those years, I'd curse my math teacher for not giving me a detail explanation during lectures and her answering with"What, you don't see what I see?"; but now I know that it was her indirectly telling me to do my homework. Playing teacher is flat out just stressful. I'm starting to wonder how fti even managed to use his older years to do it. I thought he was a 007, F1 driver, hot shot trader, but now I realize he might just be a god.
  • #49,160
  • Aug 1, 2014 12:08pm Aug 1, 2014 12:08pm
Quoting Jacque
{quote} becareful though, the usd bull undertone seems still be the soup of the day, so my bias for now is to look for opportunities to buy usd got a feeling though if it wants to go down, 102.5 seems a good place to park and is a good place for me to maybe build a stable, see how it goes, might end up building a palace instead happy working

wah anyone watching chart? i just came back and the jap horse is parking at 102.5, nice place. but its look wobbly at the moment. going to try find a nice place to knock a few wood into the ground to build the stable
Attached Image
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
11 traders viewing now