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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #15,641
  • Jul 30, 2014 1:29pm Jul 30, 2014 1:29pm
Quoting infinitus
EU EW counts maybe one of this two {image} {image}

seems like we should go with the second chart
  • #15,642
  • Jul 30, 2014 1:38pm Jul 30, 2014 1:38pm
ups.....


Recent Commentaries | Safehaven.com
Greenspan: U.S. Running Out of Buffer in Economy; Stocks to See Significant Correction
  • #15,643
  • Jul 30, 2014 1:45pm Jul 30, 2014 1:45pm
Mish

M.A.D. Sanctions; Two Games at Once
  • #15,644
  • Jul 30, 2014 1:54pm Jul 30, 2014 1:54pm
EU

EW count


note: the DX also seems to have completed a minor wave 3 of 3

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_2 Hours_snapshot.png Size: 76 KB
  • #15,645
  • Jul 30, 2014 2:05pm Jul 30, 2014 2:05pm
Quoting infinitus
Mish M.A.D. Sanctions; Two Games at Once
I say ban of Russian oil and gas exports soon, mark my words it will happen. Either that or attack on Crimea from neonazis.
Either of those two will be enough to drag Russia in.

The problem with link you posted is the same with those who were trying to predict that sanctions will not escalate further 3 months ago. They used rationality of economy as guide, which is complete fail. If there is bigger play behind that doesnt matter.
  • #15,646
  • Jul 30, 2014 4:48pm Jul 30, 2014 4:48pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi 2046, that seems to be a plan :nerd: hope all is well :-)
And what a plan that was ; less premature from todays low

All is well, as always. If life was supposed to consist of work, sleep and eat only, then all would be exceptionally well
Enjoy the mountains!
  • #15,647
  • Jul 30, 2014 6:21pm Jul 30, 2014 6:21pm
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred-...l_windows.html


FRED add in for Excel
  • #15,648
  • Jul 31, 2014 2:41am Jul 31, 2014 2:41am
I got burnt on yesterday's volatility, but nothing too serious. Today I am back where I started and slightly profitable. Still long USDJPY and short AUDUSD. So far 25 pips, but the trades are still in the 'danger zone'. AUDUSD will be in the clear if it falls another 15 pips and USDJPY has to rise 30 pips. The volatility as of yesterday really skewed the numbers.
  • #15,649
  • Jul 31, 2014 3:47am Jul 31, 2014 3:47am
Quoting EuroTrader37
I got burnt on yesterday's volatility, but nothing too serious. Today I am back where I started and slightly profitable. Still long USDJPY and short AUDUSD. So far 25 pips, but the trades are still in the 'danger zone'. AUDUSD will be in the clear if it falls another 15 pips and USDJPY has to rise 30 pips. The volatility as of yesterday really skewed the numbers.
Long on UJ as well. Missed out on AU and GU this morning but I have some EU shorts in play - not from the best position (3393), I'll admit.
Some conflicting reads on the short term - possibly just early positioning for the news.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #15,650
  • Jul 31, 2014 4:06am Jul 31, 2014 4:06am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Long on UJ as well. Missed out on AU and GU this morning but I have some EU shorts in play - not from the best position (3393), I'll admit. Some conflicting reads on the short term - possibly just early positioning for the news.

Good call on the UJ! Going short on EURUSD is also good, it's close to diagonal resistance. What price are you long on UJ?
  • #15,651
  • Jul 31, 2014 5:54am Jul 31, 2014 5:54am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Long on UJ as well. Missed out on AU and GU this morning but I have some EU shorts in play - not from the best position (3393), I'll admit. Some conflicting reads on the short term - possibly just early positioning for the news.
AU is still worth to short at 9300 as this previous strong demand will now serve as good supply.
  • #15,652
  • Jul 31, 2014 6:16am Jul 31, 2014 6:16am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} AU is still worth to short at 9300 as this previous strong demand will now serve as good supply.
Cheers Janpec! I closed my EU as I'm gonna opt out of the NFP. Keeping my UJ long and I'm just about to short the AU. Looking at GU as well, but I may sit that out depending on how good Japanese lunch is in 15 minutes

Edit: I short scalp on GU for 25 pips... or open tp... will decide over sushi. haha
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #15,653
  • Jul 31, 2014 6:21am Jul 31, 2014 6:21am
Quoting EuroTrader37
{quote} Good call on the UJ! Going short on EURUSD is also good, it's close to diagonal resistance. What price are you long on UJ?
UJ is at 102.83... didn't get the best fill late yesterday with too many things going on. I wanted to add this morning at 78 but I'm reserving some lots for EU. I want EU to pierce 3400 looking for anything between 3420 and 3400 to short.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #15,654
  • Jul 31, 2014 6:36am Jul 31, 2014 6:36am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} UJ is at 102.83... didn't get the best fill late yesterday with too many things going on. I wanted to add this morning at 78 but I'm reserving some lots for EU. I want EU to pierce 3400 looking for anything between 3420 and 3400 to short.

That's ok. UJ is still in the danger zone though. I am looking at holding it for +70 pips. Another 25 pips and it will be out of the danger zone. My AUDUSD trade is doing good. It's out of the danger zone and currently at 37 pips profit.
  • #15,655
  • Jul 31, 2014 7:09am Jul 31, 2014 7:09am
Quoting infinitus
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred-...l_windows.html FRED add in for Excel
Quite nice actually!
  • #15,656
  • Jul 31, 2014 11:35am Jul 31, 2014 11:35am
This is my play for GU today-tomorrow price needs to close above bottom red line for longs, SL used for longs is this red line itself (-2 pips), target upper red line.
For this play to be valid day has to first end and daily close has to be above bottom red line or very close to it.
http://prntscr.com/4872tw

Also expecting this play on EJ probably will miss long entry as it could develop trough Asia, but if not i will try to catch it, important part is for 137.4-137.2 demand to hold and drop must not be straight down to this zone.
http://prntscr.com/4874iw
  • #15,657
  • Jul 31, 2014 11:36am Jul 31, 2014 11:36am
Quoting EuroTrader37
{quote} That's ok. UJ is still in the danger zone though. I am looking at holding it for +70 pips. Another 25 pips and it will be out of the danger zone. My AUDUSD trade is doing good. It's out of the danger zone and currently at 37 pips profit.
Bit of consolidation now. UJ is underwater but I'm gonna hold. Same with AU and EU. Closed my GY for measly 7 pips drink money.
Oh well... month end eh!

Everyone have a good weekend!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #15,658
  • Jul 31, 2014 11:45am Jul 31, 2014 11:45am
Quoting janpec1000
This is my play for GU today-tomorrow price needs to close above bottom red line for longs, SL used for longs is this red line itself (-2 pips), target upper red line. For this play to be valid day has to first end and daily close has to be above bottom red line or very close to it. http://prntscr.com/4872tw Also expecting this play on EJ probably will miss long entry as it could develop trough Asia, but if not i will try to catch it, important part is for 137.4-137.2 demand to hold and drop must not be straight down to this zone. http://prntscr.com/4874iw...
Nice play on both - I'm liking GU and your target is almost to the pip where I would go. I personally measure not the bottom of the move down, but the bottom of the first counter move (next green bar).

I'm less sure on the EJ. Probably cos I think EJ and UJ are in sync, so I'm hoping it doesn't go down any further to 102.6 LOL! But, yes, I'm biased long as well

Good stuff!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #15,659
  • Jul 31, 2014 12:03pm Jul 31, 2014 12:03pm
Quoting janpec1000
This is my play for GU today-tomorrow price needs to close above bottom red line for longs, SL used for longs is this red line itself (-2 pips), target upper red line. For this play to be valid day has to first end and daily close has to be above bottom red line or very close to it. http://prntscr.com/4872tw Also expecting this play on EJ probably will miss long entry as it could develop trough Asia, but if not i will try to catch it, important part is for 137.4-137.2 demand to hold and drop must not be straight down to this zone. http://prntscr.com/4874iw...

Nice analysis! Please let us know how you went.


By the way, which broker do you use?
  • #15,660
  • Jul 31, 2014 12:06pm Jul 31, 2014 12:06pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Bit of consolidation now. UJ is underwater but I'm gonna hold. Same with AU and EU. Closed my GY for measly 7 pips drink money. Oh well... month end eh! Everyone have a good weekend!

Yes, mine was underwater too for a while. I am expecting the danger zone to be very nerve wrecking, but once resolved to be (hopefully) very profitable!

My AU trade is a bit worse off now, it's just 33 pips in profit. I am expecting another 80 pips move in the next week or 2.

Have a good weekend bro! Enjoy your drinks, and if single, enjoy the ladies too!
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