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  • #19,701
  • Jul 29, 2014 6:17am Jul 29, 2014 6:17am
AUDCAD is in uptrend and what we currently have is a retracement in uptrend. Trend should resume after the retracement and what we see now is Head and Shoulders pattern which I would treat as a RETRACEMENT not REVERSAL pattern. POC 1 is supported by l4, 61.8 fib and previous hidden bullish divergence (continuation ) while POC2 suggests deeper retracement. Anyhow i expect H3 level to be tested again and for next level it should be either broken with a strong momentum ( news ) or by a technical breakout ( Breakout - Retest or BPC ).

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  • #19,702
  • Jul 29, 2014 6:30am Jul 29, 2014 6:30am
Hi Tarantula,

I just have a question regarding risk. Just say if my risk tolerance is 2% of my account and I have 3 setups (they are different pairs) do you........
A) 2% per pair or
B) 3 pairs / 2% risk giving a risk of 0.66 % risk per pair.

I hope my question makes sense,

Kind regards,
Marty
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose
  • #19,703
  • Jul 29, 2014 6:33am Jul 29, 2014 6:33am
Quoting T@rantula
CHFJPY is showing HIDDEN BEARISH divergence which is a sign of a downtrend continuation. The price has broken an intraday zig zag swing line (red) and now on a lower high (LH) and close to H3 camarilla is showing Hidden Bearish divergence. 112.85 zone needs to hold ( triangle trendline top ) for next targets 112.30 and 112.10 {image}
Finally some movement.. +15 on this one
  • #19,704
  • Jul 29, 2014 6:35am Jul 29, 2014 6:35am
Quoting martyhype
B) 3 pairs / 2% risk giving a risk of 0.66 % risk per pair. I hope my question makes sense, Kind regards, Marty
It makes much sense! this ^^
  • #19,705
  • Jul 29, 2014 7:31am Jul 29, 2014 7:31am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} Finally some movement.. +15 on this one
I missed waiting for 112.85... And main point is as the Bearish Divergence is completed I doubted the down move. I hope there could be one more upmove for to 112.20.
  • #19,706
  • Jul 29, 2014 8:31am Jul 29, 2014 8:31am
Quoting T@rantula
AUDCAD is in uptrend and what we currently have is a retracement in uptrend. Trend should resume after the retracement and what we see now is Head and Shoulders pattern which I would treat as a RETRACEMENT not REVERSAL pattern. POC 1 is supported by l4, 61.8 fib and previous hidden bullish divergence (continuation ) while POC2 suggests deeper retracement. Anyhow i expect H3 level to be tested again and for next level it should be either broken with a strong momentum ( news ) or by a technical breakout ( Breakout - Retest or BPC ). {image}
Price barely waited for POC...
  • #19,707
  • Jul 29, 2014 2:30pm Jul 29, 2014 2:30pm
Quoting MrNow
Hi there USDCAD Daily. An inside bar....but most important is what happened before...... I set a buy stop order 1 pip +spread above yesterday candle with a stop 1 pip + spread below it. {image}
I am in.... many news release coming......not sure where I will place my sl.......another day will give me more clues.
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  • #19,708
  • Jul 29, 2014 9:17pm Jul 29, 2014 9:17pm
Still short this T.. stop at point of enter.. 11044 OZ/K1W1
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  • #19,709
  • Jul 30, 2014 1:27am Jul 30, 2014 1:27am
Quoting danc
Still short this T.. stop at point of enter.. 11044 OZ/K1W1 {image}
Well done Danc!!
  • #19,710
  • Edited 3:55am Jul 30, 2014 1:35am | Edited 3:55am
Quoting MrNow
{quote} I am in.... many news release coming......not sure where I will place my sl.......another day will give me more clues. {image}
Packed up at 1.08611, made 36.4 pips, risked 29.4 (1%)...........

I was also short aussy and kiwi and closed, made 0.5% on each of them.....

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...14#post7634414

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...82#post7636582

To many news are coming today......I do not like to give away profits......yes they could go my way or they could not......or they could go up and down to trigger my stops just to continue in the same direction which I think is worst.......anyway.....not taking any trades today ....
  • #19,711
  • Jul 30, 2014 1:46am Jul 30, 2014 1:46am
Quoting danc
Still short this T.. stop at point of enter.. 11044 OZ/K1W1 {image}
I short on this pair, too. But my yesterday's entry was on harmonic shark pattern
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  • #19,712
  • Jul 30, 2014 4:55am Jul 30, 2014 4:55am
Quoting martyhype
Hi Tarantula, I just have a question regarding risk. Just say if my risk tolerance is 2% of my account and I have 3 setups (they are different pairs) do you........ A) 2% per pair or B) 3 pairs / 2% risk giving a risk of 0.66 % risk per pair. I hope my question makes sense, Kind regards, Marty
do you know how many positions you will open in the next few days?....

No. So you make it per trade.
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #19,713
  • Jul 30, 2014 5:02am Jul 30, 2014 5:02am
Quoting PhAnTi'
{quote} do you know how many positions you will open in the next few days?.... No. So you make it per trade.
It's up to trader to be honest but You SHOULD also got an risk level which canot be exceed with x positions, if You're willing to ristk 2% per trade then there should still be an number for x trades, let's say 5% or 10% depends on Your trading style and what's even more important on corellation.. Tarantula posted an great example of how correlations works on Forex markets few pages ago, Having 5 long trades on diffrent xxx/JPY pairs would mean You're exposed to Jen weaknes or strenght 5 times and that wouldn't be fine with 2% per trade for each of thoose 5 then I'd say.
  • #19,714
  • Jul 30, 2014 5:34am Jul 30, 2014 5:34am
Quoting Wuza
{quote} It's up to trader to be honest but You SHOULD also got an risk level which canot be exceed with x positions, if You're willing to ristk 2% per trade then there should still be an number for x trades, let's say 5% or 10% depends on Your trading style and what's even more important on corellation.. Tarantula posted an great example of how correlations works on Forex markets few pages ago, Having 5 long trades on diffrent xxx/JPY pairs would mean You're exposed to Jen weaknes or strenght 5 times and that wouldn't be fine with 2% per trade for...
Wow...10 % I would never ever recommend. And I agree, correlations are VERY important ( I already made a post about it ). Especially if you trade many pairs. Cross correlation is ok, but double exposure should be avoided. My usual risk is 0.5 % per trade. i dont know how many pairs I will trade today as Phanti said, so I ALWAYS use 0.5 % sometimes even 0.3 %
  • #19,715
  • Jul 30, 2014 5:34am Jul 30, 2014 5:34am
Quoting PhAnTi'
{quote} do you know how many positions you will open in the next few days?.... No. So you make it per trade.
^^ this

Quoting T@rantula
{quote} Wow...10 % I would never ever recommend. And I agree, correlations are VERY important ( I already made a post about it ). Especially if you trade many pairs. Cross correlation is ok, but double exposure should be avoided. My usual risk is 0.5 % per trade. i dont know how many pairs I will trade today as Phanti said, so I ALWAYS use 0.5 % sometimes even 0.3 %
Also I need to add that many traders use small stops and big leverage. Just imagine - small stop will usually lead to the "death by thousand cuts" and huge leverage to revenge trading due to unprofessional trading and trader instability- 30 pip stop with 1 full lot on 10.000 account is 3 % of a risk in a single trade (!)
  • #19,716
  • Jul 30, 2014 5:43am Jul 30, 2014 5:43am
Quoting PhAnTi'
{quote} do you know how many positions you will open in the next few days?.... No. So you make it per trade.
Thankyou both Tarantula, PhAnTi and Wuza for your input and much appreciated. PhAnTi you are correct that I do not know entirely who many pairs I will trade to begin with unless I decide that I will only trade a certain amount of pairs. At the moment I had been trading pairs that had setups which there where 5. I had noticed that my margin usage went into alarm for being over 10%, I was up at 19% margin usage which was 2% risk on each of the 5 pairs, which meant I was trading 10% risk on the account. I can fully understand if I am using 2% risk on a pair and there is a zone at two different prices on that pair I will split it by 2. eg. $5000 at 2% risk with 30 pip stop loss will be 0.33 lots. Split this by 2 = 0.33/2 = 0.16 lots for 2 entries on a particular (1) pair.

I just wasn't sure what to do for multiple pairs ie. 2% per pair. I think I might just drop this down to 1% per pair. I will definitely look back to find the correlation, this will be very important,

Once again thank-you all for your help, and do appreciate your time,

Kind regards,
Marty
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose
  • #19,717
  • Jul 30, 2014 5:47am Jul 30, 2014 5:47am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} ^^ this {quote} Also I need to add that many traders use small stops and big leverage. Just imagine - small stop will usually lead to the "death by thousand cuts" and huge leverage to revenge trading due to unprofessional trading and trader instability- 30 pip stop with 1 full lot on 10.000 account is 3 % of a risk in a single trade (!)
I think I will drop even further to .5% per pair
Thanks,
Marty
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose
  • #19,718
  • Jul 30, 2014 5:49am Jul 30, 2014 5:49am
Quoting martyhype
{quote} I think I will drop even further to .5% per pair Thanks, Marty
Very wise. Trade wisely.
  • #19,719
  • Jul 30, 2014 5:55am Jul 30, 2014 5:55am
And last session recap !! EURUSD + 40 USDCAD +50
  • #19,720
  • Jul 30, 2014 6:44am Jul 30, 2014 6:44am
Quoting T@rantula
And last session recap !! EURUSD + 40 USDCAD +50
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