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  • #701
  • Jul 23, 2014 8:34am Jul 23, 2014 8:34am
This is really great system ... beside Fibo (harmonic) system, this is the second i know that can predict exactly the LEVEL , where price will go ...
Does any one know, how Eurusdd calculates "how far away the price can move before snapping back" ??

Quoting diceman555
On the 4hr chart I am calculating how far away price can move before snapping back.
Thanks
  • #702
  • Jul 23, 2014 5:00pm Jul 23, 2014 5:00pm
Quoting tbird2121
This is really great system ... beside Fibo (harmonic) system, this is the second i know that can predict exactly the LEVEL , where price will go ... Does any one know, how Eurusdd calculates "how far away the price can move before snapping back" ?? {quote} Thanks
im playing around with measurments and potentials.

ive transfered my particular method on to a 4 hour chart which is quite interesting.in a fast falling market the target levels are very diferent to those in a more structered move,the chart shows better than my words
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  • #703
  • Jul 23, 2014 7:16pm Jul 23, 2014 7:16pm
Quoting diceman555
{quote} im playing around with measurments and potentials. ive transfered my particular method on to a 4 hour chart which is quite interesting.in a fast falling market the target levels are very diferent to those in a more structered move,the chart shows better than my words {image}
Hi Diceman555,

Do you also use Fibo numbers for calculating the retrace level ?

Thanks
  • #704
  • Jul 24, 2014 8:40am Jul 24, 2014 8:40am
if u think about moments and then collective moments one can begin to see the picture as far as return target percentage what is target, where is entry and why to know 100% these are all questions and im sure with more dedicated moments one can look to see about the few that turn

trying to understand why someone who figured this out would share to anyone i cant take credit for anything even my minds workings so how can eurusdd when we have such an amazing god that allows us universals law and significance of learning and having tools of love, action, belief living.

i have learned so much more from my applied psychology that has benefited me than from all the lessons based on trading skill applied learning. the facilitated the psychology to make it applied science is more befitting

to day i would like to say thankyou for to the people that made it possible ie Jesus, thankyou Sir , CEO, Mate, Brother, Lord, Life, Love

Jesus Said I AM, he said I AM the True Vine
John 15:1 - the Bible
  • #705
  • Jul 24, 2014 10:52am Jul 24, 2014 10:52am
Attached is a screenshot using crodzilla's mtf indicator from this thread. The thicker lines represent higher time frames, the thin/dashed represent lower. Is anyone using this indicator with success? Is there a best method for entry?

Thanks
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  • #706
  • Edited 11:25am Jul 24, 2014 11:07am | Edited 11:25am
Quoting forexdave1
Attached is a screenshot using crodzilla's mtf indicator from this thread. The thicker lines represent higher time frames, the thin/dashed represent lower. Is anyone using this indicator with success? Is there a best method for entry? Thanks {image}
Personally I had more succes with other indicators, such as Mouteki with S/D confluence, but quite frankly it depends on the person, and if they can create a synergy with their already implemented variables/indicators such as the above that I quite often use.
  • #707
  • Jul 24, 2014 10:10pm Jul 24, 2014 10:10pm
I have to admit ...if were all looking for an indie that would produce these exact turns in the market then we wouldnt really need the levels...I just dont believe theres an indie out there (publicly anyway) thats gonna just magically give these exact points where to enter to catch these levels...if there was you wouldnt need the levels...its something deeper...hidden from plain site....if you want it bad it enough, you'll find it..best of luck, X
  • #708
  • Jul 26, 2014 8:52am Jul 26, 2014 8:52am
Good day,

Read through the thread and it made me go look..

I believe there is value in the views expressed. I guess the success or better probability is not in the entry, but rather in the decision where to let go of trades not adhering to the initial entry conditions. If one could find the 80% + probability setup and strictly apply an exit strategy to limit the damage of non conforming entries, one could build a sustainable setup.

But THAT is no simple task.

I have slapped together a few things and looked back through history - I believe the probability is higher than 80%. Will need some time to work out the cut for non conforming setups.

Here are the EU and CHF levels I believe could work out..

If they do not - will close at opposing signal for a start and measure the losses vs win ratio over time.

All the best
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  • #709
  • Jul 26, 2014 10:33am Jul 26, 2014 10:33am
Quoting TauTrader
Good day, Read through the thread and it made me go look.. I believe there is value in the views expressed. I guess the success or better probability is not in the entry, but rather in the decision where to let go of trades not adhering to the initial entry conditions. If one could find the 80% + probability setup and strictly apply an exit strategy to limit the damage of non conforming entries, one could build a sustainable setup. But THAT is no simple task. I have slapped together a few things and looked back through history - I believe the probability...
I'm not sure that a martingale approach to this system is the way to go. I have been taking entries every 50 pips that price moves from my designated "return level", entering with the same lot size on each entry. My rule, hypothetical so far, is that if price moves and triggers the entry at 200 pips I look to exit all positions at break even for that pair. If that level is not triggered I will not exit unless the return level is reached.

So far I have only had one occasion where I entered at the -150 pip level, and in that instance I gained 300 pips when price returned. The majority of my entries only get to the 50 pip level before returning, and I haven't had a losing trade in two months. I began trading this way at the end of may, and the image below shows what the approach has done for my trading results.
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  • #710
  • Jul 26, 2014 3:06pm Jul 26, 2014 3:06pm
Quoting Old_Dog
{quote} Hi Pedma Nothing complicated really!! I started with the Price Action indy and simply changed the dots to bars for ease of chart reading. Then I experimented with some different rules until I found one that (I thought ) came close to Eurusdd's signals.... .....Note that with parameterless rules the short rule is always the logical inverse of the long rule. In my seach, I am limiting the rule-set to 5 combinations and a lookback of 10 bars. Even so, there are 810551429688000 possible rules . So, let's see..... Best regards, Old...
Hello All,

Just a quick report from the bunker to let you know I am still alive and on the case. My Tesla machine (480 cores running at 1.44 Tflops ) is still churning on the EURUSDD data. There are some interesting results already -- but before you get excited it is not "good news".

Essentially, there are many rule sets that "work", that is, the price returns to those levels with very high probability (>95%). So this may be quite an arbitrary statistical phenomenon.

Also, a message and sincere apology to all those kind folk who PM me asking for this and that. Basically, I am bloody useless when it comes to logging into FF and reading mail etc. I do apologise and I will try to do better in future!!

I will report back further shortly when the first major run has finished and we have some stats we can put a proper Confidence Interval on.

Best wishes

Old Dog

.
  • #711
  • Jul 26, 2014 5:49pm Jul 26, 2014 5:49pm
Quoting Old_Dog
{quote} Hello All, Just a quick report from the bunker to let you know I am still alive and on the case. My Tesla machine (480 cores running at 1.44 Tflops ) is still churning on the EURUSDD data. There are some interesting results already -- but before you get excited it is not "good news". Essentially, there are many rule sets that "work", that is, the price returns to those levels with very high probability (>95%). So this may be quite an arbitrary statistical phenomenon. Also, a message and sincere apology to all those kind folk who PM...

yes you are right old dog.ive been trading this for a couple of years from a descreasionary way albeit on ftsr100 and the reason for that is indicies are smoother and have less variables in comparison to currencies.

the 95 % hit rate is similar to my logs.the frustrayinhg thing about this is regardless of entry the ratio always returns to 0 minus the spread,im trying to automate and have only found one set of entries concidering the r/r and % probability hit rate which does have a positive return above 5 % monthly.

there is also a way of forward trading this .there is also a way of increasing the probability resulting in a swing trading strat.

or taking a probability hit rate of 50 % which has 1 ;1 r/r and playing with entry almost trailing the entry as one does with stops.
  • #712
  • Jul 26, 2014 7:18pm Jul 26, 2014 7:18pm
Quoting Old_Dog
{quote} Essentially, there are many rule sets that "work", that is, the price returns to those levels with very high probability (>95%). So this may be quite an arbitrary statistical phenomenon.

This makes sense - or rather it's an understatement ?

Looking at eurusd since 1989, there can be, at most, only 2 prices which were never revisited: the highest high ask & the lowest low bid. Every other price has been revisited (crossedback).


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  • #713
  • Jul 27, 2014 11:10am Jul 27, 2014 11:10am
UP

Im completly agree, but in your theory is one minus. Nobody have for example ten years to take profit... We need work in lower timeframe to get the higest profit as is possible. in short time.
Somebody ask me, how to recognise disimilarity. In my opinion helpful will be this threat: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=37111
RSI/Stochstic is quite similar

How to use it?
Look
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  • #714
  • Jul 27, 2014 2:07pm Jul 27, 2014 2:07pm
these levels are created within the micro structer ,there are many ways of trading this .but its more to do with probability of return coupled with r/r ect.

there is also a further step .which completes the structer.this is a forward calculation if you look at the chart you will see what i mean,this calculates the energy going forward this also closes a previous level and more often than not will leave a new level on the o c l or high.this lead candle is very usefull.

notice the value of the lead candles after price completes one cycles ,exuasts retreats clears lower level ,leaves its signiture and the next wave begins ,you can see the order flow here also it shows in the value of those candles almost identical.if a new wave dosnt get suported then you can begin to short the lower levels.
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  • #715
  • Jul 27, 2014 3:42pm Jul 27, 2014 3:42pm
diceman....great chart and extremely interesting but could you simplify your explanation into some laymans terms ...I dont quite get it...what does "closing candles fall on calculated forward potentials " mean...? thanks for any explanation...X
  • #716
  • Jul 27, 2014 5:39pm Jul 27, 2014 5:39pm
Quoting Trader_X
diceman....great chart and extremely interesting but could you simplify your explanation into some laymans terms ...I dont quite get it...what does "closing candles fall on calculated forward potentials " mean...? thanks for any explanation...X
the price levels in the example were above price,there is a way of calculating the potential of a given candle stick,that potential as noted on the chart. not surprinsinly it exausts at the previous left behind price target, which completes a full cycle,the javalin thrower ,launches his javilin ,from launch one could measure various components such as velocity ect and project quite pricisely were it will land,the only variable that would adjust that would be wind conditions,unfortunatly there are many variables in the market.what you are actually seing is the full structer of the market.

price is rising ,initially it gets taken from its low quite often ticking up missing price levels.on wave 1 up ,it will exaust.that exaustion point can be calculated from the initial lead candle .on the retracement it will tick dowm missing price on the highs,if it fails to fill back down to the low then expect to see a new lead candle ,again ticking up leaving unfilled level at the new low,wave 2 begins,if you study this you can determine the structure and flows.your looking for momentum to miss prices .this in its self is a exellent scalping method reading the quotes.but in the case of this method were trying to understand the over all structure .the levels it leaves in larger cycles ,you can determine the turning points,working from one cycle up,
  • #717
  • Edited Jul 28, 2014 12:09am Jul 27, 2014 8:04pm | Edited Jul 28, 2014 12:09am
diceman...very interesting...thank you for the lesson...can you explain how ",there is a way of calculating the potential of a given candle stick," or is that a personal formula of yours that your not ready share? if thats the case, i understand, and appreciate your intial explanation...best regards, X

message to all:
I did want to contribute one small piece of information that im using ...instead of using the RSI (set to 2 on the 1M and 5M) combined with the MA (set to 1) Ive just been removing the MA all together and setting my chart to line graph instead of candles...the line graph seems to mimic the MA(1) and is easier for me to see and compare...not sure if anyone else suggested that...just adding my 2 cents...regards, X
  • #718
  • Jul 28, 2014 1:49am Jul 28, 2014 1:49am
Quoting diceman555
these levels are created within the micro structer ,there are many ways of trading this .but its more to do with probability of return coupled with r/r ect. there is also a further step .which completes the structer.this is a forward calculation if you look at the chart you will see what i mean,this calculates the energy going forward this also closes a previous level and more often than not will leave a new level on the o c l or high.this lead candle is very usefull. notice the value of the lead candles after price completes one cycles ,exuasts...
Yes! This is the eloquence that I could not describe in my post from weeks back. Great discovery of the lead candle. I can see there are many ways for its effect to be detected by others without specifically knowing about the lead candle. But to me it's essentially the first one to return to a level thus breaking the previous cycle. My entry would be to confirm this "lead" and I have another method to do this. But the concept is still the same, I believe. Test and retest.

edit:
because it's Monday. Look at the first lead candle then count 6 candles across. What do you see? Can you see the opportunity for Long? On a slightly longer scale, the same thing happened on the 3rd marked lead candle... Clear Long signal.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #719
  • Jul 30, 2014 6:22am Jul 30, 2014 6:22am
It seems that everything starts from, like a joke, "Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?"
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Folio
  • #720
  • Jul 30, 2014 11:05am Jul 30, 2014 11:05am
Quoting folio
It seems that everything starts from, like a joke, "Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?" {image} {image} {image} Folio
meaning what
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