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Let's Trade Options

  • #4,221
  • Jul 29, 2014 2:43pm Jul 29, 2014 2:43pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} S.D. when buying volatility compare charts of VIX with S/P and other indicies before pulling the trigger and always buy mid week as a lot of the premium is eaten away so your getting better value
time to take that VXX trade, rejection from indicies has swayed it for me, may butterlfy this
  • #4,222
  • Jul 29, 2014 3:22pm Jul 29, 2014 3:22pm
This is a test

just documenting from a options calculator of a SPY weekly butterfly expiring Friday this week, net debit $9 and max potential profit is $91 at expiration providing price finishes around 194 area

I'm starting to trade these OTM butterflies hence the test, low risk with better returns if all the criteria is met, you can close at anytime but your profit potential is less and this is on just a single contract

Estimated returns
SPY at $197.08 on 29th Jul 2014
Initial outlay: $9 (net debit)
Maximum risk: $9 at a price of $195 at expiry
Maximum return: $91 at a price of $194 at expiry
Breakevens at expiry: $194.90, $193.10
  • #4,223
  • Jul 29, 2014 4:47pm Jul 29, 2014 4:47pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
I'm starting to trade these OTM butterflies hence the test, low risk with better returns if all the criteria is met, you can close at anytime but your profit potential is less and this is on just a single contract
Can you show us all the legs of your fly SPY trade?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,224
  • Jul 29, 2014 5:51pm Jul 29, 2014 5:51pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Can you show us all the legs of your fly SPY trade?
long 1 $193 put AUG 1 EXP @18C
write 2 $194 put/ SAME @25X2=50C
long $195 put/SAME @ 41C

SO THE TWO LONGS =59C MINUS THE WRITE OF 50C= NET DEBIT 9C and max risk plus comms. obviously my bias is down

as this is testing there is no actual money in it
  • #4,225
  • Jul 29, 2014 6:04pm Jul 29, 2014 6:04pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} long 1 $193 put AUG 1 EXP @18C write 2 $194 put/ SAME @25X2=50C long $195 put/SAME @ 41C SO THE TWO LONGS =59C MINUS THE WRITE OF 50C= NET DEBIT 9C and max risk plus comms. obviously my bias is down as this is testing there is no actual money in it
so the best return is if SPY goes to near the short put $194 strike by the 8/1 close, right?

I have tomorrow off, will need to wake up early and pile up my spread plate again. I am looking for slippage in the US indices, too, perhaps out several months....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,226
  • Jul 29, 2014 6:17pm Jul 29, 2014 6:17pm
Quoting The Fool
last for me today was a 9/20 SCCO long strangle, $30/$36 for $0.34/$0.37, $0.71 net debit. SCCO ER's 8/6.... Good luck to us!
I had thought this was gonna be a mistake I had better close. I wasn't even sure when the ER was, thought it was next week. But looks like they put out a statement on earnings today, and the share price slipped to $32.83. I will likely sell Sep $35 calls tomorrow for $0.40 & cross fingers to break even on the long side, then watch and see what happens on the short side. A run of USD strength (likely soon) will weigh down commods (copper) and if Argentina defaults tomorrow the ripples from that event may rock boats all across south america,,,
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,227
  • Jul 29, 2014 6:22pm Jul 29, 2014 6:22pm
Hi The F. & Cecil Gee,

I am glad to see at least binary option traders on this forum since I joined recently. I am a novice to binary options and I will need assistance on how to start making good profits. I will also pay attention to your trading signals. Keep up the good work, thanks.

Sam
  • #4,228
  • Jul 29, 2014 9:48pm Jul 29, 2014 9:48pm
I have never tweeted. Gotta believe this spike will be erased, though.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,229
  • Jul 29, 2014 9:52pm Jul 29, 2014 9:52pm
Quoting samton92
Hi The F. & Cecil Gee, I am glad to see at least binary option traders on this forum since I joined recently. I am a novice to binary options and I will need assistance on how to start making good profits. I will also pay attention to your trading signals. Keep up the good work, thanks. Sam
you're welcome samton92, but nobody here is trading binaries.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,230
  • Jul 29, 2014 10:28pm Jul 29, 2014 10:28pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/limit-...170547719.html

http://www.thestreet.com/story/12824...o&cm_ven=YAHOO

some people just know when to trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-07-29_ctl.png Size: 49 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,231
  • Jul 29, 2014 10:58pm Jul 29, 2014 10:58pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} so the best return is if SPY goes to near the short put $194 strike by the 8/1 close, right? I have tomorrow off, will need to wake up early and pile up my spread plate again. I am looking for slippage in the US indices, too, perhaps out several months....
yes at vey best/ more than likely if it goes my way it will be more like 4or 5/1 in reality and these can be done weekly and multiple times
  • #4,232
  • Jul 30, 2014 1:04am Jul 30, 2014 1:04am
HLF whacked, but it has bygawd been a survivor, support at $50 tuff as nails, I might be a $50 put seller....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-07-29_hlf.png Size: 136 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,233
  • Jul 30, 2014 1:06am Jul 30, 2014 1:06am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} yes at vey best/ more than likely if it goes my way it will be more like 4or 5/1 in reality and these can be done weekly and multiple times
oh I see you thought I meant you might make 8:1 but I meant by 8/1, that's the Aug 1 expiry....

I need to paper trade some of these.

Thinking about opening an OptionsHouse account, they do $8.50/1st + $0.15/each additional contract...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,234
  • Jul 30, 2014 7:37am Jul 30, 2014 7:37am
Advance GDP really rocks....
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,235
  • Jul 30, 2014 10:37am Jul 30, 2014 10:37am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} oh I see you thought I meant you might make 8:1 but I meant by 8/1, that's the Aug 1 expiry.... I need to paper trade some of these. Thinking about opening an OptionsHouse account, they do $8.50/1st + $0.15/each additional contract...
that correct too, i misread
  • #4,236
  • Jul 30, 2014 10:48am Jul 30, 2014 10:48am
Quoting StrayDog
Advance GDP really rocks....
OK, so US economy is up 1% on the year, big whoop. Let me guess, Yellen and Co. will say the taper is on track and that they will keep ir's low low low for a long long time. Some day though the markets are gonna see the punch bowl is nearly empty. Perhaps that day is today?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,237
  • Jul 30, 2014 11:14am Jul 30, 2014 11:14am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} OK, so US economy is up 1% on the year, big whoop. Let me guess, Yellen and Co. will say the taper is on track and that they will keep ir's low low low for a long long time. Some day though the markets are gonna see the punch bowl is nearly empty. Perhaps that day is today?
DOW has a possibility to bounce from here as does the Euro from here too, I'm hoping the idicies keep falling as I'm testing the butterfly from yesterday but I'm buying the euro at 1.3377 with a s/l 13366
  • #4,238
  • Jul 30, 2014 11:30am Jul 30, 2014 11:30am
We are really living in amazing time...



Snapchat Said in Funding Talks With Alibaba at $10b Value
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,239
  • Jul 30, 2014 12:00pm Jul 30, 2014 12:00pm
Nice bump in the longer t-bond ir's today, ^TNX up 8 bps. I am in multiple TLT spreads, with short legs as high as $112, watching TLT dip into $114.xx....

I did do an SSO call spread - Sep 20 $125/$121, for $0.60/$1.80 - $1.20 net credit, a bet that SnP will be trading <2,000 in September....

Watching gold to see if it can bounce again from the $1,29x level. I am milking low yield spreads on GLD, as they were positioned bullish, but still making money. Otherwise, waiting to see the FOMC reaction, not betting the farm on a move either way but as told above, leaning bearish...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,240
  • Jul 30, 2014 12:29pm Jul 30, 2014 12:29pm
Quoting The Fool
Nice bump in the longer t-bond ir's today, ^TNX up 8 bps....
don't see 10 bp moves in the Treasury yields very often. What it mean? Bonds down equities up, right? ...hell. who knows anymore. Anyway I better turn on the tube maybe I can catch the clip of Santelli's head exploding....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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