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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #15,581
  • Jul 26, 2014 6:54am Jul 26, 2014 6:54am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} all red got triggered and filled I stay net short so far with net 20% of my original long term short position when we move to at least 3413 I will be net long with a smaller position

since the entry of my short position was around 3970, I have gained so far over 500 pips on this position. Add to that counter move trades, which have so far been successful (some of them reported here).

I think that it is a really good strategy to hold the long time positions, and only "hedge" or "partially hedge" them with counter positions when appropriate.

With doing this, one is able to literally catch 100% of every swing.
  • #15,582
  • Jul 26, 2014 8:39am Jul 26, 2014 8:39am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} since the entry of my short position was around 3970, I have gained so far over 500 pips on this position. Add to that counter move trades, which have so far been successful (some of them reported here). I think that it is a really good strategy to hold the long time positions, and only "hedge" or "partially hedge" them with counter positions when appropriate. With doing this, one is able to literally catch 100% of every swing.
Wow short from 3970 thats nice pips gain, good job. Funny enough if you check any other EUR pair you would have double or tripple that if you would shorted those.
  • #15,583
  • Jul 26, 2014 9:02am Jul 26, 2014 9:02am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Wow short from 3970 thats nice pips gain, good job. Funny enough if you check any other EUR pair you would have double or tripple that if you would shorted those.

Hi Jan,

since I am not a full time trader, as you know, trading multiple instruments not only come with an increase in analytical work, but also with higher risk (you can not be an expert for all the pairs).

So I mainly focus on EU.

Another reason is, that my volume based system is so far not tested on instruments, which have lower trading volume.

I also look/trade regularly GU and UJ. Lately I also have an eye on NZDUSD. Last week I missed a very good opportunity there (short), because I waited too long for one more push higher. Might be a nice short, when it retraces a bit.


Wish you a nice weekend,


Markus
  • #15,584
  • Jul 26, 2014 11:00am Jul 26, 2014 11:00am
Settlements and Fines from TBTF Institutions Since the Crisis


who can tell me where this money, in the end, stems from?


how much money got the banks post Lehman for bailouts?

is the state stealing us via the banks?
  • #15,585
  • Jul 26, 2014 11:01am Jul 26, 2014 11:01am
Quoting rbetancor
{quote} My numbers said ... 1.3394, then 3W corrective upmove to a max of 1.3567 ... then more down
Quoting infinitus
EU EW count short term we are in a wave 3 of 3 down inside this wave 3 we are most likely in an extending wave 5 so I see good probability for another move lower towards the 3400 area. Speaking in terms of Murrey Math the levels would be 3413 and 3397 extended Probably we will go Sunday night first a bit higher, maybe 3439, then the move lower. The next bigger move should occur to the upper side as a wave 4, which may terminate in the (roughly) 3490-3520 area There is a chance, that the wave 3 has already finished @3420 or even 3437 low. {image}...
If she wants to play, then we will play.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #15,586
  • Jul 27, 2014 1:57am Jul 27, 2014 1:57am
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...omplete-charts

"London Fix" Gold Rigging By Bullion Bank Exposed In Class Action Lawsuit: The Complete Charts
  • #15,587
  • Jul 27, 2014 1:59am Jul 27, 2014 1:59am
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
"It Can't Be A Bubble!"
  • #15,588
  • Jul 27, 2014 4:21am Jul 27, 2014 4:21am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} the only thing I am worrying about, is a slight possibility, that we are in a multiple 1-2's setup to the downside, which would be able to propel us in a hurry to the downside without much of retracements. That would suck a bit, I have to admit
Yes ... but all TF's are exauted ... only Weekly have a sligth more down room ... till 1.32-1.30 or even 1.2979 zone ... but a retrace of 100 pips is needed.

For this coming morning London open I have that the invalidation level it's 1.3485 ... if that levet get hitted ... low it's in ... and we should see at least a 3W pullback.

EU have been going downside while other risk instruments haven't fall ... and they should, as SPX, that it's a equal legs up ... and need a 3w pullback

We will have an early retrace, maybe monday London open ... as last week, and then all week down.
  • #15,589
  • Jul 27, 2014 4:32am Jul 27, 2014 4:32am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} 1.27-1.29 may be the end of a wave 3 here. After a wave 4 correction we may even see the 1.14 to parity level (at least that is what I would love to see)
From Daily point of view ... we have, from the 1.3966 top ... 3W down to 1.3503 (A), 3W up to 1.3797 (B), and now 3W down to 0.618 ext. of A-B 1.3394 (C), I must admit that internal extructure of the (C) wave, it's a last leg of 1.618 ext. of a-b, what could lead on a short 4 wave, and a five that let us reach 1.32075 (1.0 ext. of A-B) or 1.30913 (1.236 ext. of A-B), BUT that's a 3-3-3 on Daily (if move ends 1.3394), or 3-3-5 if move ends on 1.32075-1.30913 ..., that will let us with a FLAT correction on Daily, reseting indicators on Weekly ... and let us resume the upmove rally to 1.4250
I think that this coming weeks will be absolutly dessisive to know where we go on the coming months.
  • #15,590
  • Edited 11:20am Jul 27, 2014 11:07am | Edited 11:20am
Quoting infinitus
Settlements and Fines from TBTF Institutions Since the Crisis who can tell me where this money, in the end, stems from? how much money got the banks post Lehman for bailouts? is the state stealing us via the banks?
Ye there was posted picture on ZH about plans to steal from depositors of most major EU banks so defenetly along stealing trough money printing inflation they seem to now have this new idea. Its bit scary as it doesnt mentions any percentage, so who knows how rough will they go. ECB rate cut was just a tease, there is more to come. They dont need such improvisation in USA becouse they have reserve currency and can print shitloads but EU and Japan are more experimental couse they are closer to the floor.


As for EU here is my minimal target on downside: 3340
http://prntscr.com/46urzb
Second targets are deeper down.

Backed nicely by USD.
http://prntscr.com/46ut9m

Now if you throw GU in picture its bit more confused, daily calls for bounce on GU, would be rather unlikely to see that going straight down, however lower tfs do give option of going straight trough as there was no bottom formed:
http://prntscr.com/46utq8
http://prntscr.com/46uua8

And AU
http://prntscr.com/46uus6

So overall all looks dollar bullish in longer term, but shorter term its more gloomy it could result in temporary dollar weakness maybe in Monday to Wednesday and then US data could turn it around to fit with actual technical view over longer term.


Interesting ones are JPYs

http://prntscr.com/46uw1n
http://prntscr.com/46uwhx
http://prntscr.com/46uwpp


Looks like that there is coming strenght from JPY especially nicely seen on AUDJPY where it calls for break higher with typical cumulation before resistance, while rest of JPYs call for down move (even though currently testing strong demand) which views on JPY strenght. However it would be rather crazy to short right now on demand zones so small TFs maybe yes but anything higher could still bounce. But in the end structures call for break on JPYs with exception of AJ which is buddy of JPY.

Additionally GCAD, very nice bull cumulation and setup for higher break on weekly and daily charts, H4 is against it but i am thinking H4 will fail to deliver down side.
http://prntscr.com/46v0rn
  • #15,591
  • Jul 28, 2014 5:48am Jul 28, 2014 5:48am
We have nice setup for EA down.
http://prntscr.com/4740js
  • #15,592
  • Jul 28, 2014 9:31am Jul 28, 2014 9:31am
Quoting janpec1000
We have nice setup for EA down. http://prntscr.com/4740js
I've taken the plunge off the Daily Pivot, in @ 14287 - let's see what happens
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #15,593
  • Jul 29, 2014 3:29am Jul 29, 2014 3:29am
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...n-yukos-ruling

We are fucked.
  • #15,594
  • Jul 29, 2014 3:47am Jul 29, 2014 3:47am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} I've taken the plunge off the Daily Pivot, in @ 14287 - let's see what happens
Hehe... I forgot about this post. I believe I scalped a nice healthy 10 pips x 2 lots on that move.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #15,595
  • Jul 29, 2014 3:49am Jul 29, 2014 3:49am
Quoting janpec1000
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...n-yukos-ruling We are fucked.
The start of Euro ascendancy?
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #15,596
  • Jul 29, 2014 3:53am Jul 29, 2014 3:53am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} The start of Euro ascendancy?
Rather a full double confirmation of stronger dollar reserve standard when war starts. That counting if those idiots really think Aegis is as good as it was tested.
  • #15,597
  • Jul 29, 2014 8:10am Jul 29, 2014 8:10am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} all red got triggered and filled I stay net short so far with net 20% of my original long term short position when we move to at least 3413 I will be net long with a smaller position

OK, got triggered

now waiting

if lower, will load more towards 3380 and 3360
  • #15,598
  • Jul 29, 2014 10:36am Jul 29, 2014 10:36am
Quoting janpec1000
Three amigos of gold short entries (possible max DD 200 pips): http://prntscr.com/44aced BTC noone selling on order book, buy 628, SL 4 bucks lower, let profits run, big pendings on 630+. http://prntscr.com/44aetu
Forgot to mention last weeks gold shorts went well, down target reached. This is temporary down target, i am still completly set on 1260-1250 as down minimum.
  • #15,599
  • Jul 29, 2014 10:38am Jul 29, 2014 10:38am
Quoting janpec1000
AU http://prntscr.com/4652ar Gold http://prntscr.com/465usw
Also both AU and GCAD following drawn direction. GCAD down move however is now in question and most likely canceled.
  • #15,600
  • Jul 29, 2014 11:40am Jul 29, 2014 11:40am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Forgot to mention last weeks gold shorts went well, down target reached. This is temporary down target, i am still completly set on 1260-1250 as down minimum.


was a nice trade

I mentioned 1280 as the low and got 1287.50

From what I see on EW, it should now go up towards the 1360 level
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