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Funny Looking Rectangles & Useless Drivel

  • #61
  • Edited 3:38pm Jul 28, 2014 3:17pm | Edited 3:38pm
Quoting j4d
{quote} Who am I to judge such a superior trader ? I'm sure you would blow my humble annual returns sideways with your incredible returns.. In-fact...I'm sure you would crush everyone in this forum who dare to live with your superior returns.. You are obviously the "don" and I apologise if I doubted your unique skills...foolish me. One thing is for sure, the traders who I know who return a positive annual return are humble people, traders who know how to respectfully go about their business in such a harsh environment.. iDoubleStoch.. I wish you...
Go take a look at some of the posts made by arrogant SOBs in the other thread as well as this one - then come back and remind me of how humble I should be when the same clueless type go on the offensive. My level of patience for those types is nil at this point. I just don't need them around my threads - they always destroy things they don't understand.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #62
  • Jul 28, 2014 3:37pm Jul 28, 2014 3:37pm
Quoting albchr
I "think" I see where you're going here. However I will not pretend to comment on such yet. I'll need time to work out identifying and drawing the "funny little" boxes on my own charts over and over first.
No problem. I appreciate your post on the merits. These funny little boxes that keep demonstrating themselves to be rather interesting can be drawn on the hour - every hour. The first two connecting vectors start at the Open Price of each hour and run to the Highest High and Lowest Low (as stated earlier). From that point, you simply replicate those same two lines but move them to the opposite end of their starting points to make the parallelogram. So, the Open:Low line is copied and dragged up, so the open end connects to the Highest High of that hour. The Open:High line is copied and dragged down, so the open end connects to the Lowest Low of that hour. That's it. Where those copied lines meet in the future is called the Intersection or Fall Line.

The B2i box you just drew is completed only when the hour comes to an end. If price exits the box and moves past the Intersection point (where the two copied lines meet out in the future) from Above, then price typically has the tendency to move down to or through the Fall Line. If price exits the box and moves past the intersection point (where the two copied lines meet out in the future) from Below, then price typically has the tendency to move up to or through the Fall Line.

That's the prototype concept. Version 1.0. It has a fairly decent rate of accuracy but you will need to improve it with other long-term directionally biased indicators. B2i is a Non-Trending Prediction Class Indicator. You should probably use a good Trending Prediction Class Indicator to go along with it. Furthermore, the size of the box matters a great deal. The distance between where price exists the box and the Fall Line, determines your profit potential. The risk potential is found in the statistical analysis when testing these patterns for when they fail to return to the Fall Line.

The last few pics here were of a tiny box, not worthy of trading given the magnitude of EURJPY right now. I only posted them to explain the mechanics of how the box should work in near real-time.


Quoting albchr
Even without the long range ma's, that can be done. I would however be interested in where the "other thread" is. A PM would be nice if that's more..... appropriate. Unlike many, exploring new and especially unconventional things intrigues me. I appreciate the week.
That thread is the most recent thread (I think) on the forum related to the "Randomness" of the markets. But, I don't post in that thread anymore. I went there to demonstrate the clear point that patterns do indeed exist in the market and then I left as the typical smart people begin to get rude. I don't come here for them. I come here to hopefully inspire a novice trader to start thinking Outside the Box of convention for all the right reason.

Time to grab a bite to eat. I hope you can glean something from this.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #63
  • Jul 28, 2014 3:52pm Jul 28, 2014 3:52pm
Before I go grab a bite to eat, let's play with the current 2200 box and extend it a bit. The original 2200 Highest High was tight at $136.856 EURJPY. That led to a small tight funny little useless rectangle. Well, things look a little different if you extend the box through to the 2300 hour. Keep in mind that B2i needs higher Volatility than the end of trading sessions typically provide and I do not normally trade end of day B2i for that reason. However, let's take a look at how you extend the B2i.

Recall the last box.

Now, look at what an extension would provide:

http://i57.tinypic.com/153nyfk.jpg


This is the exact same "tiny" box we just looked at. Now, she's grown-up a bit as we extended it behind a mere 1 hour framework and into the 2300 hour, for a 2 hour framework. Remember, size does matter with B2i. So, we are now tracking a 2 hour B2i structure. At 2340, the Highest High was made at $136.886 (a slightly higher high point was made, but I can't type and post at the same time). Notice the new Intersection which will provide you with a new Fall Line. Also, notice how price is pegged up into the Highest High area of the Box. This is what you WANT to see before entry into the position. Allow the box time to complete. Since this is now a 2 hour B2i pattern the completion time will be 2359.

See what happens. I've got to grab some food before I starve - I may miss this one, but practice it yourself. Decide when you would take the trade.

Know that the current OS1 condition is Short which aligns itself perfectly with the current B2i formation in near real-time.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #64
  • Jul 28, 2014 3:58pm Jul 28, 2014 3:58pm
Quoting iDoubleStoch
Before I go grab a bite to eat, let's play with the current 2200 box and extend it a bit. The original 2200 Highest High was tight at $136.856 EURJPY. That led to a small tight funny little useless rectangle. Well, things look a little different if you extend the box ....
Are we trying to short from the high of the box down to the fall line? Or are we waiting until price hits the fall line? If so, what do we do once it does, aim for the top, again? My guess is the first one.
Too close for pips, switching to points.
  • #65
  • Jul 28, 2014 4:00pm Jul 28, 2014 4:00pm
Quoting iDoubleStoch
{quote} No problem. I appreciate your post on the merits. These funny little boxes that keep demonstrating themselves to be rather interesting can be drawn on the hour - every hour. The first two connecting vectors start at the Open Price of each hour and run to the Highest High and Lowest Low (as stated earlier). From that point, you simply replicate those same two lines but move them to the opposite end of their starting points to make the parallelogram. So, the Open:Low line is copied and dragged up, so the open end connects to the Highest High...
I appreciate the additional details beyond your previous post on how to draw them. I was following along on your EJ example on my EJ chart. However it would appear our times are different so I had to go by price and the candle structure to find out where you started from. I have the concept and understand the difference in price range thus trade worthiness on larger versus smaller time frames. I shall investigate further.

Go eat...lol
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #66
  • Jul 28, 2014 4:22pm Jul 28, 2014 4:22pm
Quoting iDoubleStoch
Before I go grab a bite to eat, let's play with the current 2200 box and extend it a bit. The original 2200 Highest High was tight at $136.856 EURJPY. That led to a small tight funny little useless rectangle. Well, things look a little different if you extend the box through to the 2300 hour. Keep in mind that B2i needs higher Volatility than the end of trading sessions typically provide and I do not normally trade end of day B2i for that reason. However, let's take a look at how you extend the B2i. Recall the last box. Now, look at what an extension...
Haven't you heard? Patterns don't exist! I can see what's going on here! You're a witch!
  • #67
  • Jul 28, 2014 4:47pm Jul 28, 2014 4:47pm
Not sure if this is "precisely" right but it's what I'm looking at right now. I'll get better. Fall line at 136.861
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpymm1.png Size: 47 KB
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #68
  • Jul 28, 2014 5:04pm Jul 28, 2014 5:04pm
Back from a late lunch as price fall back through the Fall Line to the Short side. As you progress through enough of these little "annoying rectangles" that have absolutely "no meaning whatsoever," you begin to see the behavioral pattern emerging as a consistent theme - where prices somehow wants to connect with the Fall Line. If you have been very observant, then you have seen that sometimes price makes its move towards the Fall Line from inside the box itself - before the box is validated by the ending of the current hour in which it is drawn.

This is a very important observation because it lead me to creating Version 2.x of the B2i indicator. In order to accomplish that task, I had to search for another indicator that would give me detailed volatility information about the current hour. That came through another indicator that I called Distinct Vega (now, Distinct Vega Prime). DVP is now in its 4th Generation of code and in the trading system it provides real-time information about the relationship of the Highest High and Lowest Low relative to the Open and Close of the Time Frame under observation. To make a very long story short, DVP provides me with a Timing Mechanism that enables better insight into B2i Patterns that show the most probability for striking the Fall Line before the end of the B2i time frame - ie, before the box completes and is validated.

What that really gave me the ability to do, was shift B2i itself into another class of indicators that I call: Real Time Dynamic, or Class RTDi. Out of the 117 indicators in the system, there are only 11 Class RTDi on-board. They are not easy to come by because they are a pain in the butt to optimize to a level of acceptable stability. They are the most frustrating class of indicator I have ever worked on. We won't be getting into any of those here, I just wanted to show how B2i developed over time and WHY it was necessary to push the performance of the indicator beyond this prototype Version 1.0 that I am sharing in this thread.

As you can see, the B2i Short call tendency was correct (back to the Fall Line), but the Timing was not correct. A note of advise for the novice. When you find a good indicator that has some timing issues, don't scrap the entire indicator. Go look for something that you've developed in the past. Typically, you will find output from something you've created in the past, that unlocks the potential of something you are working with in the present and raises its effectiveness overall.

Never throw away your old work - you NEVER know when you will need an older design that you thought had no real potential. You may have designed a better indicator BACKWARDS - meaning the part you thought was no good, might have been developed FIRST, and the part you thought was good might have been developed LAST, without you knowing it. The more system development you do, the more you will realize just how true this statement can be. Never (EVER) throw away your old work. You just might need it someday.

Once again, where is price in this pic:
http://i58.tinypic.com/zjcllz.jpg

That's right - hanging out on the Fall Line, yet again. Unless you had something like DVP to alert you to the fact that the Short move would come early, before the box fully validated, then there was no way for you to trade that sharp move down. However, that's not the point. The point is to show the tendency of the move relative to these silly little rectangles that just keep popping up when you least expect them to.

In the pic above, you can see that price exited the box from Below the Fall Line and then immediately went up to touch the Fall Line. The problem is that OS1 Green Line is Below the Fall Line and that creates conflict in the price behavior which I am certain we will see play out until the next valid box comes along. Had the EURJPY closed well above the Fall Line, then (as stated earlier before this move happened) it would have matched OS1 perfectly and lead to a nice little Short, as predicted (the tendency for which we see now).
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #69
  • Jul 28, 2014 5:13pm Jul 28, 2014 5:13pm
Quoting albchr
Not sure if this is "precisely" right but it's what I'm looking at right now. I'll get better. Fall line at 136.861 {image}

That B2i looks exactly like mine - though I cannot see the Start time - it does look like you used the Open of 2200, which is what I used. Your post also brings up another very interesting highlight. Notice (clearly) that on my chart between 2358 and 0000 hours you see a dramatic drop in the price on the M1, which is (clearly) not showing up on your M1 chart. This has everything in the world to do with the way Bucket Shop Brokers play with their price feeds.

On my M1 chart, you can see a price spooling all the way down to $136.800 at 0000 hrs. This is no seen on your chart.

Bucket Shops. I am soooo glad I no longer trade with them. However, I do keep all of my developmental work off of my production trading platform, which is what I call a "Commercial Account." Not fully Institutional and certainly not Retail. However, I do get institutional type spreads - frequently inside the pip spreads.

I just thought this "anomaly" in prices between different platforms was interesting, given how all the retail brokers out there love to talk about how "fair" their pricing is compared to the competition.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #70
  • Jul 28, 2014 5:21pm Jul 28, 2014 5:21pm
Quoting iDoubleStoch
{quote} That B2i looks exactly like mine - though I cannot see the Start time - it does look like you used the Open of 2200, which is what I used. Your post also brings up another very interesting highlight. Notice (clearly) that on my chart between 2358 and 0000 hours you see a dramatic drop in the price on the M1, which is (clearly) not showing up on your M1 chart. This has everything in the world to do with the way Bucket Shop Brokers play with their price feeds. On my M1 chart, you can see a price spooling all the way down to $136.800 at 0000...
Yes, how well I know about the "feeds" from these bucket shops. One tip if you can. It would be easier (and faster) to view your charts if they didn't send us to another site when clicked on. Could you possibly just save them through the MT4 and post? Not really necessary but, just a thought.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #71
  • Jul 28, 2014 5:33pm Jul 28, 2014 5:33pm
You have a very interesting system, definitely attention worthy.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #72
  • Jul 28, 2014 5:36pm Jul 28, 2014 5:36pm
Quoting Thepipster
{quote} Are we trying to short from the high of the box down to the fall line? Or are we waiting until price hits the fall line? If so, what do we do once it does, aim for the top, again? My guess is the first one.
It was the former idea as I stated just above that last post before lunch. You need good Timing indication relative to the structure of the box, in order to jump on internal Fall Line moves. However, with enough time on B2i, you can visually begin to conclude when an internal Fall Line move is going to be made. That is, when price will have a good tendency to makes its move for the Fall Line before the box validates.

Either way, there are plenty of these things floating around out there - find those that Conform. I wanted to catch a couple developing in real-time like this to show what to look for and how to approach it.

B2i is a geometric shape with timing components built-in. Once the Fall Line is truck, that particular box deactivates and you hunt for a new box. Market volatility is highly desirable and sideways markets are rather easy pickings. Vertical markets where trending is strong within the range of time that makes up the B2i Pattern, are NOT good trading conditions for this indicator as stated earlier.

B2i is what I call a Market Phase 2, 3 and 4 indicator. Market Phases 1 and 5 are not advisable for B2i.

Market Phases:

1) Strong Bullish (vertical up)
2) Bullish to Flat Transition (horizontal)
3) Flat (horizontal)
4) Bearish to Flat Transition (horizontal)
5) Strong Bearish (vertical down)

A Flat to Bullish Phase is the same as Condition 2. A Flat to Bearish Phase is the same as Condition 4. Thus, they are omitted from the phase count.

A trader needs indicators that assist him/her with each of these five (5) conditions and their two (2) associated Transition Phases (2 & 4). I call it: Trader's Situational Awareness. You need to know what Market Phase your pair is in at all times and in all Time Frames. Not all Time Frames are in the same Phase. This is something that most traders simply overlook and way underestimate in their routine trading. You need to be aware of the Market Phase in Each Time Frame and its potential impact on your position. There is no way I can do that in real-time without a computer and without a specific sub-set of my system dedicated to Situational Awareness. Thus, my trading system has a dedicated Situational Awareness Module as part of its Signal Engine.

How you calculate and assign the definition of each Phase above makes all the difference. One trader's Phase 3, could be another trader's Phase 4. But, at no time should a Phase 1 be misconstrued with a Phase 5 condition. Nor, should a Phase 4 be confused with a Phase 2 condition. If that is the case, then there is a fundamental misunderstanding of Market Phase Conditions and a review of the basics regarding Market Momentum should be reviewed by the trader.

That's a bit advanced for this thread, but I thought I would toss that in there.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #73
  • Jul 28, 2014 5:44pm Jul 28, 2014 5:44pm
BTW - the place where B2i will fail the most are in the inverse conditions of Market Phases 2 and 4. This is a Flat to Phase 1, or a Flat to Phase 5 condition. Why? Because, these two inverse conditions only happen when the market is about to rip to the upside or rip to the downside, never to been again. Meaning, that market is on its way up for a long time, or down for a long time - far longer than you can remain solvent. So, holding that position is pointless.

And, as you have probably figured out by now, I leave no stone unturned. Therefore, I have developed a set of indicators that do a decent job of predicting Inverse Phase 2 and 4 conditions. One of the ways that you can get hurt the least during an Inverse Market Condition, is to disproportionately take a number of positions that are in the direction of your successfully consistent long range indicators.

This is a "form" of cheating - but I don't care. I cheat to the strong side of the trading system, in other words. That does not mean that my system won't take positions against the longer, stronger indicators. It simply means that in the aggregate, the system forces a disproportionate number of positions into the long term side of the equation. Of course, this is deeply philosophical and again, not a part of this thread.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #74
  • Jul 28, 2014 5:58pm Jul 28, 2014 5:58pm
Quoting palabara
You have a very interesting system, definitely attention worthy.
Thanks, but you are by no means witnessing the entirety of the system. I'm just trying to show how 1 of 117 signals works in the entirety of the system. I have not spewed as much about OS1 because it is a very simple indicator that provides background and context in which to make some good choices about what to do with B2i. B2i by itself is limited. It is only 70+% accurate by itself in Version 1.0 configuration. Some people would give their right arm to trade at 70%. That is too much empirical risk for my taste.

However, B2i V1 is good for starting the novice trader who only knows about conventional indicators to get outside conventional wisdom and start thinking like real traders do - completely antithetical to what the masses are doing. The masses are getting fleeced and ambushed. As a trader, I feel like I need to get inside what the "Big Boys" are doing, carve out some space, get in and be gone before they make their next move.

Keep the higher time frames in mind, think multidimensional at all times and even the basic B2i (with the aide of a good long term outlook indicator) can do pretty well. If you are going to error, then error to the side of the long term indicator and use B2i as the Triggering Mechanism into the trade. That is another way to use B2i. Not for Direction (that would come from your well tested long term indicator), but as a General Trigger.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #75
  • Edited 6:37pm Jul 28, 2014 6:06pm | Edited 6:37pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Haven't you heard? Patterns don't exist! I can see what's going on here! You're a witch!
No, no, no, no, no - you've just got it wrong. I'm a Magician. Pulling Rabbits out of hats used to be my specialty. Now, I just pull price back to Fall Lines.

Some will say: Yeah, but that's just simple retracement! To that I will say: A retracement of what? O:H is different than O:L and both are never the same distance twice, nor do they draw the same retracement levels twice. There is something inside the "magic pattern" that the market is not outright telling anyone.

Here we are a full two hours later and price is still sitting where?
http://i57.tinypic.com/8yvrqo.jpg

Bid/Ask straddling the Fall Line which was projected more than two hours ago. That's simply not possible - that's not supposed to happen - that's not doable - that's just "hogwash," LOL! (I love it)
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #76
  • Jul 28, 2014 6:31pm Jul 28, 2014 6:31pm
Ok, folks. The $2.50 Magic Show is over for today. Volatility has gone to bed on the JPY and so has B2i.

We never looked at it today, but this was the D1 (Daily) B2i Pattern: (D1 B2i plotted on an H1 Chart)
http://i60.tinypic.com/2csgu88.jpg

This box was present in the market (whether I drew it or not) starting at 0000 hrs on 7/25/14. Its Highest High was achieve in the 1000 hour and its Lowest Low was achieved in the 2000 hour, setting its Projected Fall Line at the Intersection of $136.824. Once again it is noted that after price moves out of the bottom of the box and clears the Projected Intersection a full 10 hours previously, price demonstrates the tendency to move back into the Fall Line.

A simple, fairly low risk, yet effective means of trading when you are "aware" of the current Market Phase and you have the pulse of the Long Range Market Bias.

Jusqu'à demain. Au revoir!
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #77
  • Jul 28, 2014 6:43pm Jul 28, 2014 6:43pm
Probably a good idea to visually keep track of the D1 B2i plotted on the H1 chart, though the focus in this thread is on the H1 B2i plotted on the M1 chart.

http://i60.tinypic.com/290phj5.jpg
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #78
  • Jul 28, 2014 6:56pm Jul 28, 2014 6:56pm
And, here is another splicing of the B2i. The Yellow Shape is the 12 hours B2i plotted on the same H1 chart that the D1 (24 hour) B2i is plotted on. You can see that after exiting the Top Side of the 12 hrs B2i, price jack hammered through the Fall Line BEFORE making moving on:

http://i58.tinypic.com/2dbng9z.jpg

Proof that you can run but you cannot hide from the B2i. All you need to do is locate a B2i with good elevation above or below its Fall Line upon completion, or you need a good internal indicator that can tell you when price has exhausted its limits within the framework of the B2i structure you are observing, so you can take advantage of those Internal Fall Line strikes that happen BEFORE the baseline pattern completes. These are geometric patterns and shapes that take place in the market sort of behind the scenes and out of sight of most traders.

Added - Notice the stacking of Fall Lines painted with blue circles? A definite indication of market contraction, but also an indication of an explosive move on the way when these D1 levels get painted so close to each other.

I call this genre of tools Digital Geometry, by the way. It seemed to be the most fitting name I could give to these particular set of tools. B2i is one of several Digital Geometry tools in the system.

Until tomorrow.
F-X-C-M | A Classic Retail Bucket Shop Scam Artist Who Manipulates Prices
  • #79
  • Jul 28, 2014 6:57pm Jul 28, 2014 6:57pm
Quoting iDoubleStoch
{quote} Thanks, but you are by no means witnessing the entirety of the system. I'm just trying to show how 1 of 117 signals works in the entirety of the system. I have not spewed as much about OS1 because it is a very simple indicator that provides background and context in which to make some good choices about what to do with B2i. B2i by itself is limited. It is only 70+% accurate by itself in Version 1.0 configuration. Some people would give their right arm to trade at 70%. That is too much empirical risk for my taste. However, B2i V1 is good...
Your on the right track, I've seen a lot of systems. Just from a Visual perspective what you've posted hits the target right on the market. Its actually quite brilliant, because I've seen a similar approach, and this is much slicker.

70% Is a good start point. Always can optimize, but the real key lays in simplicity.. Not to over think something, but the most simplest approach tends to be the most effective. I am sure their is more ways to skin this type of System and get better filtering. My system also uses general approach to what your doing which is O - H/L - But my Open tends to start from the point of entry and then everything else is measured from that point. This could give great general indication of the next movement, because it works. Can see just from the SS that it works. I will keep observing.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #80
  • Jul 28, 2014 7:00pm Jul 28, 2014 7:00pm
Hi idoublestoch. I've been following your posts with keen interest right from the 'is random really random' thread.
Your style is quite unique and i don't yet have a clue what draws price to these mysterious boxes and the fall line.
I've been drawing boxes for 2 days now and i want to ask you how to determine start point/end point on a daily chart.
I use 5pm EDT (fxdd) as the start time. I noticed almost 90% hit rate but also noticed a 400+ pips draw down on GN and there is also one on EURSUD for last week. I'll post the chart when i get the chance although the GN did come back to hit the fall line.
Below is the mysterious box for GU. Please i'll appreciate your comment on it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BOX.png Size: 191 KB
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