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  • #4,201
  • Jul 27, 2014 3:29pm Jul 27, 2014 3:29pm
just looked at the SPY daily chart and to me its poised for a drop when markets open tomorrow, certainly it will test the 50 day which is standing around 194 area but I think 190 may be tested after NFP
  • #4,202
  • Edited 6:10pm Jul 27, 2014 5:59pm | Edited 6:10pm
looking that way, there've been some big ER slips and macro influences are bearish - nothing resolved in Gaza or Ukraine, etc. SnP is long overdue for a real correction. If we get a mushy message out of the FOMC and then a weak NFP, we could see SPY <190 by 1st week of Aug no problem. 5% pullback in SnP gets ~1,880; 10% gets 1,780, etc....

I don't trade SSO/SDS much anymore because I didn't like the spreads, but they're fine for a directional play now and then. a 5% drop in the SnP would give a 10% drop in SSO, or $117 down to $105 m/l. Looking at bear call credit spreads for SSO, Sep 20 $120/$122 gets $2.81/$1.87 - $0.94 net credit - not bad for a $2 spread...

What do you think gold will do, Cecil? I was encouraged to see it move contrary to equities at the end of the week, but I need to see more of that to believe it's gonna act like a safe haven asset.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,203
  • Jul 27, 2014 6:55pm Jul 27, 2014 6:55pm
Quoting The Fool
looking that way, there've been some big ER slips and macro influences are bearish - nothing resolved in Gaza or Ukraine, etc. SnP is long overdue for a real correction. If we get a mushy message out of the FOMC and then a weak NFP, we could see SPY <190 by 1st week of Aug no problem. 5% pullback in SnP gets ~1,880; 10% gets 1,780, etc.... I don't trade SSO/SDS much anymore because I didn't like the spreads, but they're fine for a directional play now and then. a 5% drop in the SnP would give a 10% drop in SSO, or $117 down to $105 m/l. Looking...
Gold climbing higher near term
  • #4,204
  • Jul 27, 2014 7:12pm Jul 27, 2014 7:12pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} Gold climbing higher near term
I wouldn't go near gold, safe haven or not. The Fed QE is a different story but I stopped looking for safe haven in gold, no correlation so far.
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #4,205
  • Jul 27, 2014 9:09pm Jul 27, 2014 9:09pm
Quoting Panco
{quote} I wouldn't go near gold, safe haven or not. The Fed QE is a different story but I stopped looking for safe haven in gold, no correlation so far.
well there's easier things to trade, that's for sure. But when it does move, it can really move...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,206
  • Jul 27, 2014 10:08pm Jul 27, 2014 10:08pm
On my radar for ER plays this week:

7/30: AKAM, YELP
7/31: LNKD, MA, TMUS, TSLA
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,207
  • Jul 27, 2014 11:19pm Jul 27, 2014 11:19pm
http://www.simpleroptions.com/public...ca12bf48673572

JC makes a good point re: selling premium on names that have just had their earnings in the prior week - iv still high and selling premium via the next week's weekly options, see AMZN FB etc....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,208
  • Jul 28, 2014 9:11am Jul 28, 2014 9:11am
This could be a week that actually is good to buy volatility, so I entered (late... but had some other things to do) small amount of weekly VXX 29.5 calls @ $0.75
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,209
  • Jul 28, 2014 9:32am Jul 28, 2014 9:32am
Quoting StrayDog
Lets say 350/355 for Sep 19th expiration. We could get at least $0.80 credit for it, and possibly more.
Re AMZN... Did not get a fill on Friday... nor today. It was actually nice to play just with weekly puts on the open today, since weekly spreads are way to cheap to sell.
Let us have some more volatility... Advance GDP q/q on Wednesday, with FOMC, ADP Non-Farm etc... lots of stuff this week.

VXST +19% (short term volatility - this tells me that VIX and its derivatives has some more room to the upside)
VIX +6.7%
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,210
  • Jul 28, 2014 10:18am Jul 28, 2014 10:18am
Hm.... this gotta be Aug 15th expiry on VXX, since OI is highest... but strike 36? Majority of transactions on Friday was @ $0.36 and $0.37

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,211
  • Jul 28, 2014 12:38pm Jul 28, 2014 12:38pm
Quoting StrayDog
This could be a week that actually is good to buy volatility, so I entered (late... but had some other things to do) small amount of weekly VXX 29.5 calls @ $0.75
Did not hold on that for long, since I told myself gazillion of times that shorting VIX spikes is far more reliable than anticipating a move and buying it... So luckily I slapped myself on the wrist and sold that on time, forgot to post it... I only risked $150 on it, but why waste money. Whenever one thinks it is a time to go long on VIX - don't. Wait and sell the spike.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: vxx-calls.PNG Size: 8 KB
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,212
  • Jul 28, 2014 12:46pm Jul 28, 2014 12:46pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Did not hold on that for long, since I told myself gazillion of times that shorting VIX spikes is far more reliable than anticipating a move and buying it... So luckily I slapped myself on the wrist and sold that on time, forgot to post it... I only risked $150 on it, but why waste money. Whenever one thinks it is a time to go long on VIX - don't. Wait and sell the spike. {image}
buying volatility is tough when in a market up trend but we would say the same on selling volatility in a market downtrend, a rejection from the high again could make it easier after Wednesday FOMC
  • #4,213
  • Jul 28, 2014 12:59pm Jul 28, 2014 12:59pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} buying volatility is tough when in a market up trend but we would say the same on selling volatility in a market downtrend, a rejection from the high again could make it easier after Wednesday FOMC
True. I would love to see some direction after this week. SnP is close to 2000, Nasdaq 100 is close to 4000, just break those levels or sink... It is not normal situation now. Not to have any sort of correction last 3 years. That hiccup in February was nothing. Double digit correction is a win/win situation for everyone. Bears would get their short show, and bulls would get lower levels for reloading. Seems that nothing can initiate such a thing expect lowering interest rates which is due to happen in spring of 2015... I almost forgot what was the reason for that nice fall in 2011...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,214
  • Jul 28, 2014 1:13pm Jul 28, 2014 1:13pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Did not hold on that for long, since I told myself gazillion of times that shorting VIX spikes is far more reliable than anticipating a move and buying it... So luckily I slapped myself on the wrist and sold that on time, forgot to post it... I only risked $150 on it, but why waste money. Whenever one thinks it is a time to go long on VIX - don't. Wait and sell the spike. {image}
I agree fully, VIX selling the only way to go - and even that is dicey. Volatility clusters, so a hard move up may be followed by more up moves, so difficult to pick a top on a VIX rise. I haven't traded a VIX option product in many months & most of the VIX options volume you see in the high-volume lists are probably insurance for stock sellers...I'd bet.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,215
  • Jul 28, 2014 1:16pm Jul 28, 2014 1:16pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} True. I would love to see some direction after this week. SnP is close to 2000, Nasdaq 100 is close to 4000, just break those levels or sink... It is not normal situation now. Not to have any sort of correction last 3 years. That hiccup in February was nothing. Double digit correction is a win/win situation for everyone. Bears would get their short show, and bulls would get lower levels for reloading. Seems that nothing can initiate such a thing expect lowering interest rates which is due to happen in spring of 2015... I almost forgot...
S.D. when buying volatility compare charts of VIX with S/P and other indicies before pulling the trigger and always buy mid week as a lot of the premium is eaten away so your getting better value
  • #4,216
  • Jul 28, 2014 1:23pm Jul 28, 2014 1:23pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} True. I would love to see some direction after this week. SnP is close to 2000, Nasdaq 100 is close to 4000, just break those levels or sink... It is not normal situation now. Not to have any sort of correction last 3 years. That hiccup in February was nothing. Double digit correction is a win/win situation for everyone. Bears would get their short show, and bulls would get lower levels for reloading. Seems that nothing can initiate such a thing expect lowering interest rates which is due to happen in spring of 2015... I almost forgot...
I have just been doing SnP bear call credit spreads and bearish put debit spreads, watching it drift up a bit today and looking for an entry later in the week. Maybe they'll let it kiss 2,000 after all. I'll watch ADP on Wed morning for a clue on NFP, then GDP will print, but I bet it misses the 3.1% consensus, we'll see. I am gonna be screentime short every day this week except Wednesday. I'd like to see a drift up in the SnP from here to Tuesday close, anyway, as I still am considering an SnP bearish call spread via SSO.

Everything might be peachy though and we will be watching SnP trade above 2k next week. Where is my crystal ball....?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,217
  • Jul 29, 2014 8:50am Jul 29, 2014 8:50am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Maybe they'll let it kiss 2,000 after all.....?
Probably the more likely scenario. With bond yields tanking all over why not pile into Chipotle Mexican Grill stock until it's big enough to buy Argentina? I've been looking for ^TNX to bounce back to 2.65...looks ready...prolly won't happen....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-07-29_tnx.png Size: 83 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,218
  • Jul 29, 2014 9:38am Jul 29, 2014 9:38am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} ... why not pile into Chipotle Mexican Grill stock until it's big enough to buy Argentina? ... {image}
TF, I like your sense of humor... I am sitting on my hands, waiting for GDP numbers tomorrow.

Working ideas
Bullish put spread on FB, 65/67.5 for September expiry... about $0.42 or so credit... Tempted to go naked here... FB proves to be a beast, and SnP best performer...
Also looking at bearish call spreads for AMZN, looking to enter when this pullback on it is over. That would be like 350/355...

AAPL is looking to test 100, that would drive Nasdaq100 to 4000
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,219
  • Jul 29, 2014 10:45am Jul 29, 2014 10:45am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} ...Bullish put spread on FB, 65/67.5 for September expiry... about $0.42 or so credit...
Entered this for $0.5 credit. Will add more if FB goes lower. I think buyers will defend last high ~72.40
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,220
  • Jul 29, 2014 11:40am Jul 29, 2014 11:40am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I did do CSCO 9/20 $24/$28 for $0.49 net debit....
I did sell against both legs of this for 8/8 expiry $25.50/$26.50 for $0.18 credit net, shoulda done it earlier. I am at the limit of not hving enough time to even think about trading & probably should be shutting down until September when I will have time to breathe. But I'm a junkie, so.....

Hoping CSCO will flatline around $26.00 for the next week or so, ER's 8/16....I have until 9/20 to milk this.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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