The Coin-Flip Theory | Page 7 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Flip The Coin System 72 replies

flip indicator 3 replies

The Coin Trade System aka Flip The Coin 67 replies

Coin Flip Reloaded 18 replies

Coin Flip with correct Money Management system. Will it profit ? 25 replies

Attachments: The Coin-Flip Theory
Exit Attachments

The Coin-Flip Theory

  • #121
  • Jul 25, 2014 7:16am Jul 25, 2014 7:16am
Quoting Jysticim
The Coin-Flip Theory Hello everybody, I would like to tell you something about this strategy http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=494447 (more a system, because there is no MM included etc.) I am a student 19 years old, I study economics. I traded demo since my 16th and real when I was 18 years old. I saw alot strategy's and systems, made my own out of others and after alot tweaking it was finally done. It made and still does make a steady x% monthly. Everyday I had to do the same thing preparation mental, read somewhat about...

Hi there,


The sell date 8 and sell date 9 seems to be wrong or may be not calculated properly both look the same, in essence sell date 9 should become 00 at the end of the day,







Sell Day 8:
Open 1.36138
Close 1.36172 Gain: -34 Pips
-34Pips x (0.00001/1.36172)x(280,421$ x 2000) = -140,210$ +280,421$ = 140,210$

Sell Day 9:
Open 1.36115
Close 1.36149 Gain: -34 Pips
-34Pips x (0.00001/1.36149 )x(280,421$ x 2000) = -140,210$ +280,421$ = 140,210$
  • #122
  • Jul 25, 2014 10:43am Jul 25, 2014 10:43am
Quoting TerryTibbs
woops sorry the picture had a naughty word in it! i somehow ended up deleting the whole post! bear with me.... also, i have just realised my broker timings are all wrong.... even though its Alpari UK its not at GMT or GMT+1 even, the MT4i also has a delayed entry, one or two candles after...im trying to figure out what candles i was actually getting in at and what candles i was getting out at. they are different to Jysticim timings. have also just realised i was not getting out of a trade and in a trade at the same candle.... its a bit of a mess,...
well, actually from jyticsm we can learn about many think and broaden our mind.

his key is being stick to the rules as simple as should be regardless any indicator or templates.

and the stick to the rules part is :

just use that 1 candlestick as your point of view and make it as your starting entry and exit point.

example,

my broker is pepperstone with GMT +3

my eurusd candletime i set is at 12:00 in H1
and
my xauusd candletime i set is at 13:00 in H1

i use 100 USD real,

and try to break the rules first to see how things went.

what is the limit of the movement, and about using no SL rules.. well i already applied that in my past experience, and i can say i really2 i can't suggest that.

because according to our vision and backtest... well it is profitable, but how bout the next time?
are you willing to risk 90% of your money to earn the 10% of the profit if things are sour?

example :
we take buy, where the movement is going down..

how big is the lot is?

if you take 100 pips = Margin out/ Margin Call/ Stop out

and the movement is 101 pips going sour (going down) before land the right direction (going up).

dont you feel and think its kinda risky to do that?

i think it's much wiser to put the SL with some certain rules like SL on higher or lower yesterday high and low.

but than again, if you want to risk all your money so, your money is your own SL. well why not?

it's 50 usd or 100 usd we risk on it. not like a few grand or something.
  • #123
  • Jul 26, 2014 1:09am Jul 26, 2014 1:09am
Quoting sinexcellent
{quote} well, actually from jyticsm we can learn about many think and broaden our mind. his key is being stick to the rules as simple as should be regardless any indicator or templates. and the stick to the rules part is : just use that 1 candlestick as your point of view and make it as your starting entry and exit point. example, my broker is pepperstone with GMT +3 my eurusd candletime i set is at 12:00 in H1 and my xauusd candletime i set is at 13:00 in H1 i use 100 USD real, and try to break the rules first to see how things went. what is the...
yep i agree stop loss is needed! i did two more runs on different dates and margin called on both tries! looks like i just had one lucky run before. if i had employed the strategy jyticsm has laid out here in months jan and feb of this year with real money, i wouldve been millionaire by now! its possible guys.... but you still have to be lucky. this isnt trading, this is more like lottery, but with much better odds. youre risking $100 each "lottery ticket" to potentially make $100k+. its bette odds than the lottery thats for sure and i think in the future i might give this a go now and then, but it is no trading plan
  • #124
  • Jul 26, 2014 1:37am Jul 26, 2014 1:37am
I see that I have to explain alot, I am home in about 3 days.
  • #125
  • Jul 26, 2014 2:50am Jul 26, 2014 2:50am
Quoting Jysticim
I see that I have to explain alot, I am home in about 3 days.
Probably so, considering people have used your own data and trades you posted, and have not come up with the same results you posted.

Also, almost every broker in the world uses 5 digits and almost no broker in the world use 1:2000 leverage. Considering your thread is 7 pages long and everyone is still confused about whether your stop is 3.4 or 34, maybe you can help clear it up. Also, GMT time is standard, yet you don't clearly define "opening day, candle, etc", by GMT. Just a few thoughts.
  • #126
  • Jul 26, 2014 3:51am Jul 26, 2014 3:51am
Quoting Jysticim
I see that I have to explain alot, I am home in about 3 days.

Please do..... I am waiting for your explanation on the dependency in the trade which I have mentioned in the post #121??????
  • #127
  • Edited 6:42am Jul 26, 2014 6:14am | Edited 6:42am
Quoting TerryTibbs
woops sorry the picture had a naughty word in it! i somehow ended up deleting the whole post! bear with me.... also, i have just realised my broker timings are all wrong.... even though its Alpari UK its not at GMT or GMT+1 even, the MT4i also has a delayed entry, one or two candles after...im trying to figure out what candles i was actually getting in at and what candles i was getting out at. they are different to Jysticim timings. have also just realised i was not getting out of a trade and in a trade at the same candle.... its a bit of a mess,...
Yes, the time can be confusing.........just use the time on your watch / wall clock. Since you are in UK, should be easier.......
The hourly candle that starts when its 10:00am in UK close yesterday's trade if it still open
When this candle that started at 10:00am closes, (at 11:00am) get ready to open the days trade. If that candle that opened at 10:00am and is about to close at 11:00am is bullish, go long, if bearish, go short.

I think Jysticim is trying with having two positions opened with diff TPs, that has SL of yesterdays Hi/Lo if the Hi or Lo is more than 34 pips..........if less than use 34pip SL and TP of one trade having 34 pips and the other trade you leave and close till 10:00am the next day.
  • #128
  • Jul 26, 2014 6:27am Jul 26, 2014 6:27am
@ Jysticim


Is it possible to show a chart next time or the one from last Friday. So we can see exactly which candle gives the signal according your rules.
Thanks anyway for this thread and your work.
  • #129
  • Jul 26, 2014 5:06pm Jul 26, 2014 5:06pm
You guys are making this way too tough. The OP already said it doesn't matter what bar you use. Pick a time that's good for you. (For me it's the Tokyo open as I'm using the UsdJpy) and be consistent with that one. Don't over complicate it.
  • #130
  • Jul 26, 2014 5:17pm Jul 26, 2014 5:17pm
Quoting TerryTibbs
{quote} yep i agree stop loss is needed! i did two more runs on different dates and margin called on both tries! looks like i just had one lucky run before. if i had employed the strategy jyticsm has laid out here in months jan and feb of this year with real money, i wouldve been millionaire by now! its possible guys.... but you still have to be lucky. this isnt trading, this is more like lottery, but with much better odds. youre risking $100 each "lottery ticket" to potentially make $100k+. its bette odds than the lottery thats for sure and i think...
i am gonna try this. but not gonna try to do some grand amusement dream. like making $100k USD just using $100.

i'm gonna set start from $100 make it until $500 and then $1000 and then $10000, and last will be $50k USD

why stop at 50K USD?

because if i reach this point, i'm gonna trade using a safer way and that way, i can support my family.
and maybe, "maybe" i gonna make another round using this for a very long trade until reach some point.

Quoting Jysticim
I see that I have to explain alot, I am home in about 3 days.
yes please do.

Quoting spyderman
You guys are making this way too tough. The OP already said it doesn't matter what bar you use. Pick a time that's good for you. (For me it's the Tokyo open as I'm using the UsdJpy) and be consistent with that one. Don't over complicate it.
i'm agree.

nice to see our friendly neighborhood here
  • #131
  • Edited 10:06pm Jul 26, 2014 7:14pm | Edited 10:06pm
sinexcellent,

You are wrong to stop at 50,000

Some time your mind is clouded by "safety"...

How about this solution: if you even get to 50,000$... You should withdraw 1000$ which give you 10x 100$ tries...

Use the 49,000$ to play safely and then "re-start the gamble game for the other 10 x 100$.. so you have 10 tries.. "

That way you can get...another 50,000$..

----

On another note that people should notice: The author is using "sonic R" system but the rule is not from sonic R..

----

I would say the only people who can succeed gambling is the people who have a job where.. 100$ is not a problem to lose per month..
------

Since the author already claimed he withdraw 27,000$ profit from a initial 100$ balance.

It would be nice if he post a screen shot of his "trades statement" of wining 100$ to 27,000$... which is I would say incredible accomplishment.
  • #132
  • Jul 26, 2014 9:38pm Jul 26, 2014 9:38pm
Quoting victor_ray
I would say the only people who can succeed gambling is the people who have a job where.. 100$ is not a problem to lose per month.. ------ Since the author already claimed he with draw 27,000$ profit from a initial 100$ balance.
I think this random, high leverage & High DD method needs an EA for live trading. That way our nerves don't stop it in the remote scenario it could reach 1 million or more.
  • #133
  • Jul 26, 2014 10:05pm Jul 26, 2014 10:05pm
HyperD,

Yes I agree 100%. Using EA would follow your trading plan 100%.

However, some system is too complex to be code to EA so it require manual gut action to keep following the rule.

For this thread purpose, the author "rule is simple enough to code EA." So it's applicable in the author scenario.

----

Just another suggestion to help some people out, it's best that you "own a RE-Loadable DEBIT visa/master card". Because you going to be blowing 100$ SO FAST... that you need the FASTEST way to deposit new 100$. Deposit by check take 2 week to clear .. and deposit by bankwire cost you 20$ and 3 day clear..
While Debit card take 1 day clear.

Step #1 Open a New Gambling mini account

Step #2 Deposit 100$ using DEBIT card (NOT your bank debit card... but your Re-Loadable Debit card)

Step #3 Gamble Away (if you have an EA it would be so much easier too)
  • #134
  • Jul 26, 2014 10:57pm Jul 26, 2014 10:57pm
Quoting Jysticim
The Coin-Flip Theory Hello everybody, I would like to tell you something about this strategy http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=494447 (more a system, because there is no MM included etc.) I am a student 19 years old, I study economics. I traded demo since my 16th and real when I was 18 years old. I saw alot strategy's and systems, made my own out of others and after alot tweaking it was finally done. It made and still does make a steady x% monthly. Everyday I had to do the same thing preparation mental, read somewhat about...
Interesting thread. When you say the 2nd candle for entry, what time frame are you talking about? Thanks.
  • #135
  • Edited 11:36pm Jul 26, 2014 11:08pm | Edited 11:36pm
After reading this thread carefully I will say that Jysticim's intend to help other gambler succeed is really strong.

I think you should lower the risk to 30% instead of 50% you should get "good result"

If you want the BEST volatility candle then pick candle during London session.

If you want the LOWEST risk candle then pick candle during Asian session (why? because sometime asian session move down 50 pip... you can only set sl at previous day high.. so what happen if previous day high is 50 pip. You won't be able to bet a trade during london sessions... Although it's not like it will kill you to not trade for a day lol )

I think i'll just going to test this out for a month on demo and see. I am not going to use 50% though just only 30% because 30% is enough for me.

Also just to help some other people out: Don't gamble on anything but EURusd <-- you have been warn.... (don't event think about trading on usdjpy because average daily range is below 34 pip so your tp usually never get hit...)

EurUsd = cheap spread and decent volatility that is enough to tp 34 pip but still not hit your stoploss most of the time

Here are some average daily range stats....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu_average_daily_range_7-26-2014.png Size: 87 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj_average_daily_range_7-26-2014.png Size: 78 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd_average_daily_range_7-26-2014.png Size: 79 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej_average_daily_range_7-26-2014.png Size: 74 KB
  • #136
  • Jul 26, 2014 11:58pm Jul 26, 2014 11:58pm
Quoting victor_ray
EurUsd = cheap spread and decent volatility that is enough...
Sorry Victor, I have to disagree a bit. Eurusd has a low ADR since some time - only slightly better than UsdJpy.
As we want to catch some bigger move we should always use a pair with higher ADR.
The 20 pairs ADR indicator from this thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post7603174 may help to choose the right pair.
  • #137
  • Edited 1:14am Jul 27, 2014 12:29am | Edited 1:14am
hello chjungen,

Too much volatility is not good, it will hit the stop loss more often. Too little volatility you won't hit tp 34 pip.
We are not trying to catch big move. The main objective is to get : Risk 1: Reward 1 consistently without your stoploss hit.

But anyway: I have did that math for the "USA" people since I live in usa so I am am force to obey NFA broker rule 50:1 leverage.

So the math come out to: If you set SL at 34 pip the maximum risk you can take is 15% PER TRADE only.... (boooooo...)

But whatever 15% is still ok more chance for survival rate.

I have upload an excel for people to play around if they are not living in USA where they can get access to leverage greater than 50:1...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: compound 15% daily risk at 50-1 leverage.png Size: 111 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Compound Excel.xls   76 KB | 352 downloads
  • #138
  • Jul 27, 2014 12:32am Jul 27, 2014 12:32am
hi
I just wondering since his SL could not be higher than 34 pips,then he stated yesterday's high and low is his SL
i really dont understand which one is his SL? 34 pips or yesterday's high or low.
because yesterday's high and low could be much higher than 34 pips.
plus 5 times in the row losing trades and still surviving without margin call?????
with $100 bank deposit and leverage1: 2000 and 5 times losing trades in the row and no margin call?????
Come on guys,we are smarter than to believe this.
I think he is a new magician, chis angel.
Regards
Fred
  • #139
  • Edited 1:00am Jul 27, 2014 12:39am | Edited 1:00am
hello fredgold3434,

From what I have read, it seem his stoploss "max number is 34 pip"

But if the previous day high/low is SMALLER than 34 pip say ....it's 25 pip difference . Then you set your trade at 25 pip sl instead of 34 pip.

Also about the margin call, all of this is base on 50% loss not $... so the balance just get "half every time he loss and his lot size get cut in half for obvious reason." But there will be a point where his balance is too low to even "bet 1 cent per pip"

If small balance is too hard to think... you can alway Magnify the problem:
Imagine a 1 million$ balance

1st trade : Lose 50% = 500,000$ balance left

2nd trade lose 50% = 250,000$ balance left

3rd trade lose 50% = 125,000$ balance left

4th trade lose 50% = 62,500$ balance left

5th trade lose 50% = 31,250$ balance left

as you can see in this example losing 5 trade in a row doesn't mean you are unable to keep making Lower Lot size bet to lose less.


Out of curiosity I download his january trade log... some day he lose only -13.2 pip, -8.8 pip, -17.9 pip, -22.6 pip (it's obviously because he have trade that doesn't have TP so if it doesn't tp 34 pip it could retrace back to -17 pip making him forcefully close out the trade because HIS rule is hold the 1 trade until the 24hr period end. Where after he close the trade in a small loss, he will open a new trade at the same time....

This is why low volatility is important but too low votality is just bad.... (sorry usdjpy fan....)

Question are good, when he come back from wherever he is, he'll probably answer the question..

Like I have suggest earlier, if people want to gamble and have better success rate.. lower that 50% to 30% risk.. If you live in USA you have no choice so your Max risk is 15% ..which is still good. 66 trades win...you are rich. To be honest 15% risk look so safe on that excel....
  • #140
  • Jul 27, 2014 1:03am Jul 27, 2014 1:03am
Quoting victor_ray
hello fredgold3434, From what I have read, it seem his stoploss "max number is 34 pip" But if the previous day high/low is SMALLER than 34 pip say ....it's 25 pip difference . Then you set your trade at 25 pip sl instead of 34 pip. Also about the margin call, all of this is base on 50% loss not $... so the balance just get "half every time he loss and his lot size get cut in half for obvious reason." But there will be a point where his balance is to low to even "bet 1 cent per pip" If small balance is to hard to think... you can alway Magnify the...
hi victor
we are saying you are %100 right.
you calculate with $1 million for us.
just calculate with $100 bank deposit how is possible even your lot size every time gets the smallest possible allowed with that broker,and still surviving?
plus the EA which take care of his SL, is waiting to close the candle 34 pips or more then EA close his trade?
how that could be possible the candle closed for example 60 pip losing,and then the EA closes his trade only 34 pips? how that could be possible?
EA is just a code to do whatever we program it for,they can not do magic.
thanks
fred
0 traders viewing now