http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...42#post6466742
VSA is 1/3 and that last part of my trading I will keep secret.
All 3 parts are things that does not change.
They have been always same and they will be always same.
Is this the reason why you don't want to share your Holy Grail?
- #83
- Edited 10:03pm Jul 25, 2014 9:31pm | Edited 10:03pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Winning | 1,859 Posts
The system is inefficient. To be consistently profitably means that you have found where the system is inefficient and exploiting that failure. It's a bit like if you can hack into an ATM to get free money. If you're discreet, you may have a very good side income or even never work a day in your life again. But if you go out and tell everybody, the bank will plug the loophole. If everybody traded the same method, that method would cease to work, it's as simple as that.
I respect Mr. Hanover very, very much, but I do not agree with him that there will or may never be a holy grail. I believe it DOES exist, and in many different forms, at that. You just will never hear about them... unless you meet an exceptionally friendly person like myself, who is still working on it
I have add Jay Walker as my friend now, because I believe he knows what he is talking about (the first time I had read your posts, I thought you were a gooooof, but now I will trust you
). I will not even try to paraphrase what Jay Walker said, because I think he said it perfectly.It's not so much a matter of a self-fulling prophecy, but rather the fact that you have captured an advantage that so many others have failed to see... and that can only go on for so long.
PS: Here is another reason, perhaps the second-best one, about why you would not share the holy grail:
Who ever finds Holy Grail probably lost a lot of money in process of learning and invested years of stress, sweet, and blood. Of course later they don't want to share it with total strangers on the internet for free.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
- #84
- Jul 25, 2014 9:33pm Jul 25, 2014 9:33pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Winning | 1,859 Posts
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
- #85
- Jul 25, 2014 9:39pm Jul 25, 2014 9:39pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Winning | 1,859 Posts
On the issue of Holy Grail, when I started programing many years ago I came across a humorous observation on commenting code to the effect that "real programers" did not because it was hard to write and therefore should be hard to read. I suspect there may be an element of this in why people don't usually share their hard won methods.
From my own experience(s) with programming, I have found the same thing to be true.
Mr. Hanover could probably attest to this matter much better than I could. But then again, I am still a "noobie" programmer that "comments" my code.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
- #86
- Edited 10:36pm Jul 25, 2014 9:59pm | Edited 10:36pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Winning | 1,859 Posts
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
- #87
- Jul 26, 2014 4:27am Jul 26, 2014 4:27am
- Joined Mar 2011 | Status: I should be on your ignore list | 5,597 Posts
- #88
- Jul 26, 2014 5:38am Jul 26, 2014 5:38am
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: ... | 8,112 Posts
{quote} I know why, and I know Mr. "genius" Hanover knows why too. It all stems from your money management, or your lack thereof.
IMO it stems from RR rather than MM. But then that depends on how you define MM.
And as for being a genius, haha, rest assured that I know nothing about forex. Want to know whether EURUSD will be above or below its current price in 7 days' time? I haven't a friggin' clue.
Whether there's a HG or not, well that depends on your definition of HG. If you have a profitable strategy, how can you know with absolute certainty that it will still be profitable 5 years from now? What about 10 years from now? 20 years? (Will the euro, or even retail forex, still be around in 20 years? LOL). But my definition of HG is much more onerous than that: it's a system that guarantees a 100% win rate with zero risk from today until hell freezes over. That's why I say it can't possibly exist. I gave a list of reasons in post #2.
The holy grail in trading is when you win 50% + 1% of your trades
Must admit I've reached the point where I find these debates on semantics to be somewhat pointless.
But I have a few more minutes to kill before my TV movie starts. And I believe that you deserve the courtesy of a reply, sir.
Re making Jay Walker a friend. I see that Jay hasn't posted for around 15 months now. I wonder where he is.
Anyway, good trading my friend,
David
- #92
- Jul 26, 2014 7:59am Jul 26, 2014 7:59am
- Joined Mar 2011 | Status: I should be on your ignore list | 5,597 Posts
- #96
- Jul 26, 2014 8:32am Jul 26, 2014 8:32am
- | Commercial User | Joined Sep 2005 | 2,784 Posts
I can only speak for myself, actually the reason why i sometime visit this website is the same reason of why sometime i watch the television/movies or visit facebook or read the newspapera etc.
To read or watch or hear what other people say or think, interact with other human beings, it's not that if you have the holy grail you would live in a cave for the rest of your life.
Many people think that when they will finally have success (be it money or love or position/respect or whatever) anything will change in their life, in some way success bring many changes, but at the same time anything stay the same.
Now we are talking about the holy grail, i think even the few that have it, they still do all the things that others do, eat, sleep, make love with their partners, have a social life, relax, watch tv, read newspapers, and some do even visit forexfactory
To read or watch or hear what other people say or think, interact with other human beings, it's not that if you have the holy grail you would live in a cave for the rest of your life.
Many people think that when they will finally have success (be it money or love or position/respect or whatever) anything will change in their life, in some way success bring many changes, but at the same time anything stay the same.
Now we are talking about the holy grail, i think even the few that have it, they still do all the things that others do, eat, sleep, make love with their partners, have a social life, relax, watch tv, read newspapers, and some do even visit forexfactory
- #99
- Edited 11:29am Jul 26, 2014 10:59am | Edited 11:29am
- | Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Trader | 264 Posts
What if I say that a holy grail is only a limited of time?
You know what they say "It's only the best until it's broken"
Sometime what's broken can't be fix, so the holy grail is a one time deal in this case
What if i say that the holy grail can be simple as a Mac D divergence or simple rainbow EMA that work only "one time" for 6 month?
Because in the end, the holy grail broke therefore it lose the holy grail status.
I'll give you another analogy:
A Car is built 1st time in TOP quality with guarantee 10 year or 100,000 mile driven before warranty "expire"
Does that mean after 10 year and 100,000 year the car broke down and can NEVER be driven again?
If there is NO MECHANIC left in this world after 10 year... and you are not a mechanic... do you think you can FIX the car to drive again? (No...)
Luckily there is mechanic so that if you can't fix your car, some OTHER mechanic will FIX your car for you for a "price"....
So the holy grail is the same thing, some Holy Grail LAST LONGER than other holy grail....
But unless you have the "skill/LOT of market experience/knowledge" you are unable to fix the grail to make it work again...
-----
I was so focus focus on teaching the "rookies" the real definition of Holy grail that I forgot to answer the Thread original question:
I don't share the holy grail because like tunera said: Whether I share it or DO NOT share it.. I would still win lot of money. The holy grail is also the system that everyone want (because it make lot of money).. So obviously there is value. The one that last the Longest for 20 year would cost at least 10 million$ and can be easily sold to any bank (guarantee... ) Look at LTCM hedgefund... September 23, 1998, a group of fourteen banks and brokerage firms invested $3.6 billion in Long-Term Capital Management...
So if your holy grail is good as LTCM you can easy have 1 billion$ in your hand from greedy bank/investor that want fast cash ...
But to be nice and share to the people in forex factory free or even a small amount of money is laughable lollllllll
-----
One last interesting note: You have read lot of "systems that shared on forex factory". The authors of those system claim that they trade their system form 1 year to 4 years with great result and NOW they want to "Share" the forex factory...
However, the people who test the author system do not become rich as time went forward the AUTHOR CHANGE the system rule and even add new or remove some system mechanic (fibo, trendline or whatever you name here etc..)... If the system is truly profitable there there is no need for change at all....(aka holy grail)..
So that lead to one thing: The author of the system originally gain good "consistence" profit for 1-4 year ... But suddenly he can't gain profit consistently anymore. He is just ONE person, obviously there are other people better than him in some other way. So he use the "sharing" method to get HELP from forex factory ... so if 1000 people test his system they all modify here and there differently which is thousands hour of work and fixing that he can't fix it himself.....
- That's all I have to say....
You know what they say "It's only the best until it's broken"
Sometime what's broken can't be fix, so the holy grail is a one time deal in this case
What if i say that the holy grail can be simple as a Mac D divergence or simple rainbow EMA that work only "one time" for 6 month?
Because in the end, the holy grail broke therefore it lose the holy grail status.
I'll give you another analogy:
A Car is built 1st time in TOP quality with guarantee 10 year or 100,000 mile driven before warranty "expire"
Does that mean after 10 year and 100,000 year the car broke down and can NEVER be driven again?
If there is NO MECHANIC left in this world after 10 year... and you are not a mechanic... do you think you can FIX the car to drive again? (No...)
Luckily there is mechanic so that if you can't fix your car, some OTHER mechanic will FIX your car for you for a "price"....
So the holy grail is the same thing, some Holy Grail LAST LONGER than other holy grail....
But unless you have the "skill/LOT of market experience/knowledge" you are unable to fix the grail to make it work again...
-----
I was so focus focus on teaching the "rookies" the real definition of Holy grail that I forgot to answer the Thread original question:
I don't share the holy grail because like tunera said: Whether I share it or DO NOT share it.. I would still win lot of money. The holy grail is also the system that everyone want (because it make lot of money).. So obviously there is value. The one that last the Longest for 20 year would cost at least 10 million$ and can be easily sold to any bank (guarantee... ) Look at LTCM hedgefund... September 23, 1998, a group of fourteen banks and brokerage firms invested $3.6 billion in Long-Term Capital Management...
So if your holy grail is good as LTCM you can easy have 1 billion$ in your hand from greedy bank/investor that want fast cash ...
But to be nice and share to the people in forex factory free or even a small amount of money is laughable lollllllll
-----
One last interesting note: You have read lot of "systems that shared on forex factory". The authors of those system claim that they trade their system form 1 year to 4 years with great result and NOW they want to "Share" the forex factory...
However, the people who test the author system do not become rich as time went forward the AUTHOR CHANGE the system rule and even add new or remove some system mechanic (fibo, trendline or whatever you name here etc..)... If the system is truly profitable there there is no need for change at all....(aka holy grail)..
So that lead to one thing: The author of the system originally gain good "consistence" profit for 1-4 year ... But suddenly he can't gain profit consistently anymore. He is just ONE person, obviously there are other people better than him in some other way. So he use the "sharing" method to get HELP from forex factory ... so if 1000 people test his system they all modify here and there differently which is thousands hour of work and fixing that he can't fix it himself.....
- That's all I have to say....
