Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 229 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #4,561
  • Jul 23, 2014 5:16pm Jul 23, 2014 5:16pm
Quoting jmag4
Hello everyone. New to FF and this thread but not entirely new to the markets (still a beginner though). Looks like a great thread. How would you recommend I go through this thread? Would it be best to start reading from the beginning and slowly make my way through? Thanks!
definitely recommend reading page 1...a few times....worked for me.
piphunt11
  • #4,562
  • Jul 24, 2014 2:52am Jul 24, 2014 2:52am
Quoting jmag4
Hello everyone. New to FF and this thread but not entirely new to the markets (still a beginner though). Looks like a great thread. How would you recommend I go through this thread? Would it be best to start reading from the beginning and slowly make my way through? Thanks!
As piphunt recommented to you, start from the beginning my friend, post #1 and videos. You have a few weeks work there, take it easy and relax, it's gonna take you some time!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,563
  • Jul 24, 2014 8:29am Jul 24, 2014 8:29am
Quoting alegargano
{quote} Hi Alfonso thank you for the reply, i went into confusion if we must waiting a closure above\belov the level or not... so the situation is something like this {image}
Hello my friend!

Take a look at my comments on your Monthly chart. There are supply zones that have not taken out any opposing MN demand. There is a new MN demanz zone that is the one in control now that you didn't drew. Hope it makese sense!

Alfonso

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,564
  • Jul 24, 2014 8:31am Jul 24, 2014 8:31am
Quoting Funnypip
Hi everybody, Talking about GBP/CAD 4hrs: as long as the daily supply above the PA has been pierced, if the price will trend downward and if will hit the daily demand area and then reverse, where would you see the best long entry? And would this be a valid set-up overall (long at demand area)? Talking hypothetically, as price isn't there and may never reach that area at all. All comments appreciated, {image}
Without a multiple timeframe analysis, I can't tell you anything my friend. I will not make a trading decision by just looking at the D1 and H4. I need to know your whole top down analysis from Monthly down to your entry TF to see all the thinking process, price could do anything by just looking at the attached chart.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,565
  • Jul 24, 2014 8:34am Jul 24, 2014 8:34am
Quoting Funnypip
Alegargano, please have a look at my chart where I've marked the previous daily supply area. When I thought about the demand area (1.8204/1.8271) I thought it removed the previous daily supply at (1.8317 /1.8289) - marked white on my chart. So we had a supply, then a demand below it, then the price went upwards from demand area, removed the supply and went to further pierce (and invalidate) the other supply at 1.845 area. I see what you mean that the trade isn't that great, with the flip zone and all. But for now I really want to understand this...
On your attached D1 chart the D1 supply is not a supply area, it's just a couple of wicky that did not produce any imbalances xas per the rules and did not remove any D1 demand, so it's not D1 supply.

Alfonso

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,566
  • Jul 24, 2014 8:36am Jul 24, 2014 8:36am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hello my friend! Take a look at my comments on your Monthly chart. There are supply zones that have not taken out any opposing MN demand. There is a new MN demanz zone that is the one in control now that you didn't drew. Hope it makese sense! Alfonso {image}

Hi Alfonso thanks for the comment, i understand the mistake that i have made
  • #4,567
  • Jul 24, 2014 11:14am Jul 24, 2014 11:14am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} On your attached D1 chart the D1 supply is not a supply area, it's just a couple of wicky that did not produce any imbalances xas per the rules and did not remove any D1 demand, so it's not D1 supply. Alfonso {image}
Thanks Alfonso. I guess I'm going back to the famous page 1 and start re-reading the materials . The funny thing is that I've been using old school price action with s/r lines, candle formation and trend lines and been moderately successful over the last year (really far from Crassus' riches of course, but I'm in green).

Then I heard about your supply-demand thread and found your explanations really logical, far from the usual "let's draw this support line here and see what price will do about it" that's at the price action core. I feel it's one of the best explanations of why price moves the way it does, through the supply-demand mechanics. Yet, with all the obvious logic behind it there is something I personally fail to grasp, because all the trades S/D I took on a separate demo account were just plain losses so far . Actually I haven't seen so many losses in one place since the days I started trading in forex!

I'll start reading again and see if that enlightens me.
  • #4,568
  • Jul 25, 2014 12:33am Jul 25, 2014 12:33am
Quoting Funnypip
{quote} Thanks Alfonso. I guess I'm going back to the famous page 1 and start re-reading the materials . The funny thing is that I've been using old school price action with s/r lines, candle formation and trend lines and been moderately successful over the last year (really far from Crassus' riches of course, but I'm in green). Then I heard about your supply-demand thread and found your explanations really logical,...
There must be something you are missing in ur analysis and u are failing to apply the rules correctly. Having so many losses is not usual so it must be related to ur lack of experience with the rules set laid out in post 1. But that's normal. I have seen ur levels in previous post, if u draw them like that its very likely that most entries will be losses. If u keep on practising and trying to understand rules by reading the first post and watching the videos, I am sure the outcome will dramatically change. Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,569
  • Jul 25, 2014 4:14am Jul 25, 2014 4:14am
If D1 supply is taken out on Dollar Index we would have D1 demand at 80.62 confirmed.. this would probably mean that EURUSD will keep on dropping.

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,570
  • Edited 12:10pm Jul 25, 2014 11:06am | Edited 12:10pm
Hi everybody, i want to share with all of you a picture of a daily tf of usdcad pair.
I do this like an exercise and i would be really happy to know what do you think about this little point of view:


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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1 that zone was a tradable zone of demand: fresh, located in correspondence of proximal line of a valid zone of demand on the monthly (and at the same time, like Alfonso said, a flip zone)

2 this zone was an area of supply not valid (not tradable) as per the rules because it didn't remove any zone of demand

3 This Cp pattern remove the oppsing zone of supply marked with number two but the price after that start to trading in the zone not completing the formation of a zone of valid demand.

4 I can draw a trend line in that way because we have 3 cp pattern marked in ellipses and if we connect it we can see that it is broken more days ago

5 In that trading in the zone we had the formation of 4 bases. The last two representing a bullish engoulfing pattern and let us mark in a rectangle purple because the the formation is not complete: we expect the formation of a candle completly away from this area.
We have at this time the first characteristic that is 2:1.
But the most important thing we have to wait for the 6 area will be be remove and then we can say that the daily is in an uptrend.

are all those thoughts correct?
What do you think about my analysis process?
Any suggestions are welcome
  • #4,571
  • Jul 26, 2014 1:03am Jul 26, 2014 1:03am
Quoting alegargano
i want to share with all of you a picture of a daily tf of usdcad pair. I would be really happy to know what do you think about this little point of view:
1) that zone was a tradable zone of demand: fresh, located in correspondence of proximal line of a valid zone of demand on the monthly (and at the same time, like Alfonso said, a flip zone)
2) this zone was an area of supply not valid (not tradable) as per the rules because it didn't remove any zone of demand
3) This Cp pattern removed the opposing zone of supply marked with number 2, but the...
I am currently trading the USDCAD long (see my post 4470). I feel there are a few issues with your analysis as follows (I am no expert at this strategy yet so putting my thoughts into this thread will be a useful learning thing for me too):
1) I agree - and this DZ is what I used to trigger my current trade
2) I agree
3) I agree this is a valid CP, but price did not move away from the DZ far enough to create sufficient Reward:Risk to trade this as a DZ
4) The downwards STL was broken 4 days AFTER the long trade should have been triggered by the rules. I don't bother drawing these counter-trend STL when I am waiting for price to return to a zone for the first touch and trigger a trade. I just set a limit order and let the trade happen, then manage the risk.
5) I get confused about engulfing patterns - is it just the candle bodies we consider or is it the entire candle length? I am currently following the camp that says "only consider candle bodies" and so I agree with you about the engulfing pattern and that pattern got taken out with the last candle. The problem I always struggle with is when to enter the trade once the engulfing candle is taken out and on what TF.
6) I already feel we see 3 x Higher Highs and 2 x Higher Lows on your H4 timeframe so I have already drawn an upwards STL as shown in the images below.

I am currently managing this trade as follows:
a) I plan to move my SL up to 1.0700 at market open on Monday morning my time as price has taken out the previous high point 1.0793 from 2014-07-16. I always plan to keep my SL at 2 x H4 swing points behind the price so that I can lock in profits when the currency trends and not lose too much of the gains when price finally crosses over the H4 and D1 STL and retraces. I prefer to take some profit, then wait for the next setup and plan to use the profit to increase the number of positions I next trade with.
b) I am watching price react to the upwards STL I now have marked on H4/D1 TF (since 2014-07-11) and also on the W TF (since 2012.09.09)
c) I have a H4 DZ CP marked ready to consider as a potential add point if price returns to 1.0760ish by end of July
d) If price crosses over the D STL then I will watch for price coming back to a W DZ with proximal at 1.0735

Cheers
Greg
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,572
  • Jul 26, 2014 9:40am Jul 26, 2014 9:40am
Quoting GregT
{quote} I am currently trading the USDCAD long (see my post 4470). I feel there are a few issues with your analysis as follows (I am no expert at this strategy yet so putting my thoughts into this thread will be a useful learning thing for me too): 1) I agree - and this DZ is what I used to trigger my current trade 2) I agree 3) I agree this is a valid CP, but price did not move away from the DZ far enough to create sufficient Reward:Risk to trade this as a DZ 4) The downwards...

Hi Greg!
Let me answer to your doubt about the engoulfing on what I can tell (I'm not an expert in this method but I think it's beautiful and instructive to confront and talk about it) so: We must draw a zone of demand from the highest open and/or close to cover the minimum that candle engoulf. We do not cover the upper wick in this case, only the body.... take a look at my purple rectangle that is the demand zone on that time frame not valid yet.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADH4.png Size: 71 KB



For the managing of operation you should ask to Alfonso for your doubt I don't know what to tell you because I do not feel like giving my own, for the moment I am in the testing phase and then I do not comment for the moment, but if you take a look at the video of Alfonso where he uses the FT2 on USD \ JPY pair you can understand the different operations and managing
Swing traders entry into h4
position trader entry in D1


Cheers
  • #4,573
  • Jul 26, 2014 5:38pm Jul 26, 2014 5:38pm
Alfonso (group comments welcome)

I am going long on AUD/USD @ .9387 with stop .9366 t/p @ .9430 (half way up to previous supply fractal point)

I have another possible entry point lower at .9363 , in your opinion which is better and is the set-up in-line with rules?

Note 4 hr chart, daily trend up, entry on right side of trend previous supply taken out (see blue circles)

comments appreciated.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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piphunt11
  • #4,574
  • Jul 26, 2014 6:18pm Jul 26, 2014 6:18pm
Quoting piphunt11
Alfonso (group comments welcome) I am going long on AUD/USD @ .9387 with stop .9366 t/p @ .9430 (half way up to previous supply fractal point) I have another possible entry point lower at .9363 , in your opinion which is better and is the set-up in-line with rules? Note 4 hr chart, daily trend up, entry on right side of trend previous supply taken out (see blue circles) comments appreciated. {image}
Why not put SL right under demand zone rather than right on top of next demand zone?
  • #4,575
  • Edited 5:25am Jul 28, 2014 5:12am | Edited 5:25am
A new live webinar will be held this Thursday 31st July. It will be the last one before I go on holidays during the month of August. We'll cover a new concept that was introduced at the supply and demand trading community a few months ago. Don't miss this one!

  1. SUBJECT: Longer term position trading, the Sequence and the Realignment
  2. DATE: Thursday 31st July 2014
  3. TIME: 12:00 PM - 1:30 PM CEST (Central European Summer TIme), 2 hours before NY Market Open
  4. LINK TO JOIN: if you haven't joined one of the webinars before, fill out this form in order to obtain the link... you will get it in the confirmation email, check your spam folder just in case

You can join now, you will be notified by email 1 day and 1 hour before it starts. The webinar will be recorded as always

I will try to cover all these topics:

  1. Longer term position trading
  2. The Sequence and The Realignment, a new concept introduced a few months at the Set and Forget community
  3. How to trade with the D1 supply and demand imbalances
  4. Under which conditions we should hold a trade and how
  5. Will try to be as simple and specific as possible so everything is as clear as water to plan a trade

This webinar will be free so anybody can join, I wanted it to be like this since it will be the last one before my holidays.

Hope to see you there
Alfonso

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,576
  • Jul 28, 2014 5:26am Jul 28, 2014 5:26am
Hey Alfonso,


Recall my post regarding High Frequency trading (HFT) which you are yet to reply. I just thought you may find the piece in the link below, interesting http://money.cnn.com/2014/07/26/inve...ile/index.html

Given this trend, isn't the race getting too fast for us to catch up?

Regards,

Jamaa
  • #4,577
  • Edited 7:09am Jul 28, 2014 6:12am | Edited 7:09am
Quoting panoramia
A new live webinar will be held this Thursday 31st July. It will be the last one before I go on holidays during the month of August. We'll cover a new concept that was introduced at the supply and demand trading community a few months ago. Don't miss this one! SUBJECT: Longer term position trading, the Sequence and the Realignment DATE: Thursday 31st July 2014 TIME: 12:00 PM - 1:30 PM CEST (Central European Summer TIme), 2 hours before NY Market Open LINK TO JOIN: if...
hm I can't seem to find any "set and forget" videos on that link. Can you please provide a direct link to the video?

thanks

p.s. I found it sorry, I don't know how I missed it!
  • #4,578
  • Jul 28, 2014 6:59am Jul 28, 2014 6:59am
Quoting airmac
{quote} hm I can't seem to find any "set and forget" videos on that link. Can you please provide a direct link to the video? thanks
There is no video in that link, the link in my previous post was to subscribe to the supply and demand webinars, nothing else my friend. The videos are in the youtube channel available in the first post. I think you got confused, there is no mention to any video, just the webinar!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,579
  • Jul 28, 2014 7:44am Jul 28, 2014 7:44am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} There is no video in that link, the link in my previous post was to subscribe to the supply and demand webinars, nothing else my friend. The videos are in the youtube channel available in the first post. I think you got confused, there is no mention to any video, just the webinar! Alfonso
yeah my bad I know!
  • #4,580
  • Jul 28, 2014 8:44pm Jul 28, 2014 8:44pm
Dear Alfonso,

Is there any snd pocket indicators for 5 digits brokers? I'd happy if there's any pocket snd indicator for 5 digit brokers because I'd like to make precision snd in my chart.

Regards,
sonigl
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