Market View; World Stock Indexes; Trading Journal

Natural caution against the geopolitical events and the fact that the expected correction didn’t occurred yet are increasing the anxiety among investors.
DAX30, FTSE100, SP500 Indexes declined today, and the slide in Dax30 was the most expressive.
I maintain my view reported in my previous analysis and expect the continuation of the decline.
Happy trading.

I never do this but I was so sure Dax would fall today that I left a short open from yesterday.
Today a significant Gap Up did make me sufer. I shorted again believing the Gap would close but did not.
At 7:42h I closed both losing positions, considered this as a validation of the Island Reversal from yesterday and waited for a trigger to get long in a reversal entry and gess what: “Jackpot”. :-)
Today, 22nd July, DAX presented a good trading opportunity and I’ve made my Long entry:
Financial Instrument: Ger30 -> Entry rule: Reversal
TP29739.0TP2/Entry distance70.5TP2 RR2.2
TP19712.0TP1/Entry distance43.5TP1 RR1.3
LONG9668.5
STOP9636.0Stop/Entry distance32.5
RR -> Reward / Risk
Both Targets were reached. :-)

It’s incredible how this Index rise and the market don’t care about bad financial or geopolitical news.
The earning season and the FED are boosting the stock market and it doesn’t even pause to rest.
It has been said by several experts, that SP500 has still more space to rise, at least until 2150/2200.
The famous and expected retracement is still to came.
I’ve to be honest, I miss a good short. :-)

It’s recommended to trade cautiously with the current volatility, so today I closed my trading by 09:28 h.
It was very quick and pretty clean. :-)
TicketOpen TimeTypeSizeItemPriceS / LT / PClose TimePriceCommissionTaxesSwapProfit
4057554272014.07.23 18:36:32sell0.44ger30sep149753.597549480.52014.07.24 09:09:099708.5000495
4057628612014.07.24 09:17:44buy0.1ger30sep149705.5002014.07.24 09:19:519696.5000-22.5
4057629162014.07.24 09:19:54sell0.1ger30sep149696.5002014.07.24 09:20:379702000-13.75
4057629962014.07.24 09:24:37buy0.1ger30sep149704097782014.07.24 10:09:569754000125
4057646362014.07.24 10:10:21buy0.05ger30sep149768002014.07.24 10:11:299767000-1.25
4057647572014.07.24 10:13:07buy0.05ger30sep149782.5002014.07.24 10:28:299771000-14.38
000568.12
Closed P/L:568.12
Happy trading!

During the following days we might be presented with the so expected retraction in the equities Market.
The fall of the Amazon was crucial to the behavior of the markets during the day and the good news of the “Durable goods orders ” weren't able to hold the stock prices in the Major Indexes.

The leading World Index SP500 fell today confirming the strong bearish pattern from last week.
FTSE100 and Dax30 also declined mainly after the opening of the american session.
Gladly my short target in Dax was reached today (9536.5). :-)

U.S. stocks are ranging after the adoption of sanctions against Russia from the European Union.
The last “Momentum”, which have been fueled by profits that topped analysts’ estimates, is slowing down.
Today, the trading volume was relatively high in the SP500.
The geopolitical risk remains high but corporate profits have supported the valuations in the main Indexes.

The Earning Season continues to support the rising markets.
Twitter has presented exceptional results, beating analyst estimates and today the market will be impacted with a day filled with relevant news.
Geopolitics and the direction of U.S. interest rates are the major risk factors.

With overvalued markets and the Fed stepping out of the way, the presentation of results below expectations lead investors to take profits and the markets today slided significantly.
For the particular case of DAX30, the barrier of 9456.5, identified in previous analyzes, was broken today.
Tomorrow we will have the famous NFP (Non Farm Payrolls), which could push the index to the next support @ 9212.

Just like a friend off mine said, “It pains me to think that I profit from such a disaster”.
The day was filled with relevant news and the numbers weren't so Bad, but prices are looking to find some support.
The Analysis posted yesterday was fulfilled and the first target @ 9212, was reached today.
I'm grateful for the extraordinary trading week. :-)

I enjoy watching and reading the financial news throughout the day and observe the change in the headings and opinion from Bullish to Bearish and vice versa.
Today I was presented with a Bullish morning and a Bearish afternoon … A better definition for this: “A cloudy day”. :-)
After the significant slump from last week it’s difficult to find buyers at the major Indexes, so we will most likely observe a continuation of the decline, as we still haven’t reached a major support.

Stocks have been consolidating throughout the day and at the end of the day, by 18:30H they slided significantly. The daily range of prices have been falling, and the market is getting ready for the next move. DAX30 Index (Spot Market) ended today’s session with an “Inside Day”, while Dax Futures broke yesterday’s minimum by 18:30h, i.e., two hours after the close of the European session. Dax Futures priced @ 9186.50 at European Market Close (16:30h), it reached a minimum @ 9080.5 and Closed @ 9101.0, ie, 85.5 points below the Spot Market.
With this major difference ​​between Spot and Futures, tomorrow we will certainly be a very interesting day in the markets.
The correct interpretation of the relevant news that will impact the markets tomorrow, can help us to increase our trading success

Major Stock Indexes were little changed and closed near the opening, creating a “Doji” Daily Candle.
The slump occurred since the end of July, did not stop, not evan to “breath”, although not yet been touched we are close to major supports in all Indexes, the uncertainty of a “Doji” Candle, should not be interpreted as a potential unambiguous inversion, since there is still room for the decline.
At these levels, buyers begin to appear, so we will probably be presented with an increase of the Intraday noise.
Relevant Facts:
- Yesterday we witnessed an increase in tensions in Ukraine.
- In the last two days, important companies have announced disappointing results.
- Argentina defaulted
- Creation of “Novo Banco” in response to the collapse of Banco Espírito Santo SA.

Today, 7th August, DAX presented a good trading opportunity and I’ve made my Short entry:
Financial Instrument: Ger30 -> Entry rule: Reversal
STOP9176.0Stop/Entry distance40.5
SHORT9135.5
TP19062.0TP1/Entry distance73.5TP1 RR1.8
TP29001.0TP2/Entry distance134.5TP2 RR3.3
RR -> Reward / Risk
Both Targets were reached. :-)

I’m making a break for vacation and will return in the beginning of September, to continue to analyze the market and publish my posts.
The last few weeks have been really very profitable and markets gave us a few trading opportunities that only occur from time to time.
Wish you all a very pleasant summer holiday.
Happy Trading. :-)

Returning from vacation, I realize the significant changes in the prices of various assets and try to align myself with the market. I can see the strong fall of the EURUSD pair, I realize the strength of the dollar and the weakness of the euro and its implications.
The month of August and the beginning of September pushed the value of the pair to values ​​approaching the prediction I’ve made on 23rd May, which points to 1.27 as the next support.
The long term trend is still down. The weaker euro has it’s fundamentals well established. The ECB has made it’s move to get the pair down and it seems it’s not over yet.
We are getting close to a support zone and we shall have a consolidation before a continuation of the downward move.

After the sharp drop and incredible market recovery seen in August, the main index, i.e. S&P 500, seems to have entered in consolidation.
Despite the easing of tensions among the involved parts in the conflict of Ukraine, investors remain cautious and concerned, since it is not yet in sight a solution to bring peace to the region.
The referendum of 18th September in Scotland is also motive of attention, where the victory of independence may increase instability in the markets.
We should consider the possibility of a profit taking by investors, as we had a very fast rise since August 8th and these overbought levels may lead to a shrinkage in the short term, which wouldn't be bad before pointing to new highs.

Stocks have been consolidating throughout the day but I believe they’ll slide until the end of the session. The daily range of prices have been falling, and the market is getting ready for the next move.
The economic calendar does presents no major news for today but the main issue of concern is whether the Federal Reserve changes its timing of interest-rate moves to the upside.
S&P 500 maintained a string of 14 straight days without a move of 0.5 percent in either direction until yesterday’s decline. We shouldn’t ignore this pattern as it occurred previously to significant corrections in the past.

The way we trade have emotional implications, such as how our emotions impact our decisions.
To succeed in the financial markets there are rules that must not be disregarded. Emotional problems such as depression, anxiety and relationship conflicts, substantially interfere with our concentration and ability to deal the normal ups and downs of markets.
Additive patterns can be extremely harmful to the trader. Many trade of need and impulse, without being identified a real opportunity.
In case you are dealing more with your own problems than the markets, the best deal you can do is invest in your emotional well being, getting the right help.

The S & P 500 index is losing strength and has ended the string of five weeks of gains, with the idea that the Fed will raise interest rates sooner than expected.
The rise in retail sales was in line with the predictions of many economists.
The consumer sentiment index rose to 84.6 in September from 82.5 in the previous month.
The central bank, which meets on September 16-17, informed that the reference rates will remain low for a considerable time.
The S&P 500 closed at historical maximum in September 05, after a rally of five consecutive weeks, the longest streak of gains of the year. The index did not show a single sequence of four days of losses in all 2014, and the last time it fell more than 10 percent was three years ago.
Major industries in the S&P 500 fell today. Oil prices dropped on concern that global oil demand is slowing.