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  • #4,161
  • Jul 23, 2014 2:59pm Jul 23, 2014 2:59pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Yep, that usually is the best way to go, leg in 1-2-3 weeks in advance. If we had done that couple weeks ago, when FB was down <$65, we could have made enough on a $60/$70 strangle to close now and call it good.
Exactly. I like Iron Condors... but will try that on some other stocks. That would be fantastic for example on IBM, EBAY and other "after ER non-movers".
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,162
  • Jul 23, 2014 3:01pm Jul 23, 2014 3:01pm
here's the bell & I'm in nothing new, looked at a GILD bear call credit spread, no go, will look for more in coming days weeks, just been short of time to chew on trading data lately....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,163
  • Jul 23, 2014 3:04pm Jul 23, 2014 3:04pm
Quoting The Fool
here's the bell & I'm in nothing new, looked at a GILD bear call credit spread, no go, will look for more in coming days weeks, just been short of time to chew on trading data lately....
Trading halted on GILD for some reason. Was looking at it also, did not liked it.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,164
  • Jul 23, 2014 3:07pm Jul 23, 2014 3:07pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Trading halted on GILD for some reason. Was looking at it also, did not liked it.
no worries, there'll be more, like shooting fish in a barrel, just be thinking on how you gonna spend all that green. Ciao, buddy, catchya later....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,165
  • Jul 23, 2014 3:12pm Jul 23, 2014 3:12pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} no worries, there'll be more, like shooting fish in a barrel, just be thinking on how you gonna spend all that green. Ciao, buddy, catchya later....
Have a nice day, I am gonna hit the sack...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,166
  • Jul 24, 2014 2:31am Jul 24, 2014 2:31am
Looking out to winddown of Q2 earnings season, all the way out to Jackson Hole:

(just a quick scan, but definitely saw some worth a shot

8/5: ADM, GRPN
8/6: CTL, CHK, NUS, MNKD, SCCO, YPF, ZNGA
8/12: CREE, FOSL
8/13: CSCO, NTAP
8/14: KSS, WMT
8/18: GME, JCP, PETM
8/19: HD, MDT
8/20: HPQ, LOW, SPLS, TGT
8/22: QIHU
8/26: BBY
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,167
  • Jul 24, 2014 2:44am Jul 24, 2014 2:44am
I was right about the move in natgas (UNG) over the last couple months, I knew it were gonna be a mild summer in the east USA and tried to get in back in late May, but I was a couple weeks early and gave up, lost money. Now looking for a dip below $20 in late summer, perhaps a bounce off $18....

doesn't pay to be right if you're not right on time....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-07-24_UNG.png Size: 58 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,168
  • Jul 24, 2014 6:22am Jul 24, 2014 6:22am
Quoting Cecil Gee
taking a shot at a earnings play for FCX which is on Wednesday, the R-R is pretty good at the moment as the strike range for this trade is only 50c and the options are relatively cheap for a weekly ER expiring Friday A total of 79c or $79 per strangle position makes this attractive while the real time price is at $38.57. FCX can move when it wants plus with an extra 2 days of time was a must for me Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) -NYSE 38.57 {image} 0.22(0.57%) 17:47 - NYSE Real Time Price long $39 call for 33c FCX Jul 2014 39.000 call (FCX140725C00039000)...
pre market $38.29, the move has started. I need 37.50 by Fridays close for some profit. lower the better
  • #4,169
  • Jul 24, 2014 7:20am Jul 24, 2014 7:20am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} pre market $38.29, the move has started. I need 37.50 by Fridays close for some profit. lower the better
I wish you all the best.

Hey TF, FB broke the estimated move again, good thing that we did not enter that IC. Did not had good gut feeling about it.

Market makers are usually right, I think in over 80% of time, but when I try to think logically - I would assume that is far more easier to calculate move on older companies, and far more reliable, not on the momentum stocks and "next big thing company that never made a penny but it would make billions..." Far more reliable on MCD, MSFT, AAPL, EBAY, IBM, F, GM, CSCO.... you now, the old school ones. The ones that you don't expect that have capability to dazzle the market, the ones that lost their "wow effect"... What do you (and others by all means) think about that?
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,170
  • Jul 24, 2014 9:37am Jul 24, 2014 9:37am
Thinking about buying an Aug 01 strangle on TWTR... Earnings are next Tuesday AH.
TWTR is now 38.20... That could be 37/40 strangle, currently about $3.15 up to $3.20 debit. Maybe even wider, since I think that estimated move on this stock could be about $4, or 10%.

Maybe something similar for AKAM (ER next Wednesday AH), but I don't like those options... big bid/ask spreads.

For tonight I am monitoring P, BIDU and SBUX for possible Chicken Iron Condors ...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,171
  • Jul 24, 2014 10:08am Jul 24, 2014 10:08am
I will try that Iron Condor in 2 steps strategy, on TWTR, when it was $38. I just bought a wide strangle 34/42 Aug 01 exp for $1.61.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,172
  • Jul 24, 2014 1:20pm Jul 24, 2014 1:20pm
Expected moves for tonight ERs:

SBUX @ $80 - about $2.16 or 2.7%
P @ 28 - about $2.22 or 7.9%
BIDU @ 205 - about $12 or 6% give or take some
AMZN @ 360 - about $25 or 6.1%
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,173
  • Jul 24, 2014 1:51pm Jul 24, 2014 1:51pm
Quoting StrayDog
Expected moves for tonight ERs: SBUX @ $80 - about $2.16 or 2.7% P @ 28 - about $2.22 or 7.9% BIDU @ 205 - about $12 or 6% give or take some AMZN @ 360 - about $25 or 6.1%
AMZN scares me, but I'm still thinking of doing a call credit spread for 7/25. Prolly chicken out.

Looking at getting in a long strangle on CSCO: Sep $24/$28 costs $0.26/$0.22 - $0.48 net debit. CSCO ER's 8/13, so I would have many ways to add on for spreads out to 9/20, maybe make my nut on IC's at the ER and spread some more thereafter.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,174
  • Jul 24, 2014 2:00pm Jul 24, 2014 2:00pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} AMZN scares me, but I'm still thinking of doing a call credit spread for 7/25. Prolly chicken out. Looking at getting in a long strangle on CSCO: Sep $24/$28 costs $0.26/$0.22 - $0.48 net debit. CSCO ER's 8/13, so I would have many ways to add on for spreads out to 9/20, maybe make my nut on IC's at the ER and spread some more thereafter.
Nice idea on CSCO.

I am trying to get a fill for $0.8 credit on BIDU IC 185/187.5 + 217.5/220... Since the price of stock is now 202.50, I am going $12.5 wide

Also interested in SBUX IC (76/77 + 83/84), and will skip AMZN and P.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,175
  • Jul 24, 2014 2:22pm Jul 24, 2014 2:22pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Nice idea on CSCO. I am trying to get a fill for $0.8 credit on BIDU IC 185/187.5 + 217.5/220... Since the price of stock is now 202.50, I am going $12.5 wide Also interested in SBUX IC (76/77 + 83/84), and will skip AMZN and P.
BIDU looks good, maybe a little tight for me though. I am skipping any last minute credit spread entries today and looking a couple weeks + out at the names on my list, above.

I did do CSCO 9/20 $24/$28 for $0.49 net debit....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,176
  • Edited 2:58pm Jul 24, 2014 2:36pm | Edited 2:58pm
At the end, I got filled on SBUX and BIDU.... Chicken Iron Condors

SBUX 76/77 + 83/84 for $0.28 credit

BIDU 187.5/190 + 220/222.5 for $0.73 credit

Will hold my pants now...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,177
  • Jul 24, 2014 3:03pm Jul 24, 2014 3:03pm
last for me today was a 9/20 SCCO long strangle, $30/$36 for $0.34/$0.37, $0.71 net debit. SCCO ER's 8/6....

Good luck to us!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,178
  • Jul 24, 2014 3:08pm Jul 24, 2014 3:08pm
Quoting The Fool
last for me today was a 9/20 SCCO long strangle, $30/$36 for $0.34/$0.37, $0.71 net debit. SCCO ER's 8/6.... Good luck to us!
Yep. Luck is always a good thing to have... So, you bought strangles both for CSCO and SCCO in advance, 3 weeks and 2 weeks ahead.

Looks like SBUX is in line... no movement so far
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,179
  • Jul 24, 2014 3:15pm Jul 24, 2014 3:15pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yep. Luck is always a good thing to have... So, you bought strangles bot for CSCO and SCCO in advance, 3 weeks and 2 weeks ahead. Looks like SBUX is in line... no movement so far
yes, looking for whatever might pay, will IC on both if that makes sense, or if they move much either way may roll up or down or close altogether if the pre-ER moves are large enough. Anyway, chances are I will break even or make money by the days after the ER and still will have 4-6 weeks to squeeze something else out of whatever legs are left....

...that's the plan, anyway, we'll see what happens.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,180
  • Jul 24, 2014 3:30pm Jul 24, 2014 3:30pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} S&P 2K is within striking distance now, I will not be surprised to see it touched this week. I wonder if there will be a battle at that level? I have Sep Spy $200 calls that are up net 30% as of today, been holding a while, need patience.....
Closed those calls today for $0.80 net, I still think SnP will motor on, break 2k, but it might take a while, glad to have the cash gain....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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