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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #15,561
  • Jul 23, 2014 3:56am Jul 23, 2014 3:56am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} OK, I got it. Thanks. I am trying to understand why we are getting slightly different atr values

Maybe different time for close of day.

My closes at NY close (UTC+2h)


Look at the picture:

for the ATR calculation the data from 20140716 to 20140722 are involved
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  • #15,562
  • Jul 23, 2014 5:07am Jul 23, 2014 5:07am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Maybe different time for close of day. My closes at NY close (UTC+2h) Look at the picture: for the ATR calculation the data from 20140716 to 20140722 are involved {image}
Hi infinitus
Close of the day is same. Small differences in values.
Main reason I am using original Wilder formula in calculation which is more smoothed.
Thanks.
  • #15,563
  • Edited 1:59pm Jul 23, 2014 10:11am | Edited 1:59pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...61#post7624961


someone posted me this link in private


OK, we already new that this guy is ill, but I did not thought that it was so bad.........

The only confidential info this guy can have is my nice boot in his mouth.


Well, since he knows well where I live, I will invite him here and now to meet with me under 4 eyes. Will never happen, because he is such a wimp and pretender........
  • #15,564
  • Jul 23, 2014 11:09am Jul 23, 2014 11:09am
GU technical target. Technical means excluding some very bullish news from this perspective which could happen due to recent strikes. But until such news come here is direction i trade:
http://prntscr.com/45k7ds
  • #15,565
  • Jul 23, 2014 3:56pm Jul 23, 2014 3:56pm
woah, seems I am stranded in a hotel without internet connection - at least the little signal I get is only sometimes usable.

Have LTE - zero signal
Have 2 other UMTS cards from two different vendors - zero signal

Have two notebooks with WIFI - signal is so poor that no stable connection is established

Have placed one notebook now in another room which functions now as range extender for the other notebook LOL

And that in the near of Munich in a rather expensive hotel - damn it

Why is it in the year 2014 so difficult for some to care for good Internet access?
  • #15,566
  • Jul 23, 2014 4:23pm Jul 23, 2014 4:23pm
EU volume profiles
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  • #15,567
  • Jul 24, 2014 2:09am Jul 24, 2014 2:09am
EU

that seems to be the valid count right now:

2h TF
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  • #15,568
  • Jul 24, 2014 8:24am Jul 24, 2014 8:24am
Quoting janpec1000
GU technical target. Technical means excluding some very bullish news from this perspective which could happen due to recent strikes. But until such news come here is direction i trade: http://prntscr.com/45k7ds
Ok first arrow reached on GU, bumpity bump possible now.

Here is GCAD direction:
http://prntscr.com/45uybp
  • #15,569
  • Edited 5:20am Jul 25, 2014 3:06am | Edited 5:20am
AU
http://prntscr.com/4652ar

Gold
http://prntscr.com/465usw
  • #15,570
  • Jul 25, 2014 11:22am Jul 25, 2014 11:22am
Another one has enough

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...86#post7630186
  • #15,571
  • Jul 26, 2014 3:02am Jul 26, 2014 3:02am
EU

Murrey Math levels and direction (VWAP assisted)
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  • #15,572
  • Jul 26, 2014 3:05am Jul 26, 2014 3:05am
EU

volume profiles


next big hurdles on the downside:

S1 1,3408
S2 1,3362
S3 1,3315
S4 1,3177 (all +/- 9 pips)
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  • #15,573
  • Jul 26, 2014 3:06am Jul 26, 2014 3:06am
EU

playing field and virgin POC's

Attached Image
  • #15,574
  • Jul 26, 2014 3:36am Jul 26, 2014 3:36am
EU

EW count short term


we are in a wave 3 of 3 down

inside this wave 3 we are most likely in an extending wave 5

so I see good probability for another move lower towards the 3400 area.

Speaking in terms of Murrey Math the levels would be 3413 and 3397 extended

Probably we will go Sunday night first a bit higher, maybe 3439, then the move lower.


The next bigger move should occur to the upper side as a wave 4, which may terminate in the (roughly) 3490-3520 area


There is a chance, that the wave 3 has already finished @3420 or even 3437 low.
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  • #15,575
  • Jul 26, 2014 4:41am Jul 26, 2014 4:41am
Quoting infinitus
EU EW count short term we are in a wave 3 of 3 down inside this wave 3 we are most likely in an extending wave 5 so I see good probability for another move lower towards the 3400 area. Speaking in terms of Murrey Math the levels would be 3413 and 3397 extended Probably we will go Sunday night first a bit higher, maybe 3439, then the move lower. The next bigger move should occur to the upper side as a wave 4, which may terminate in the (roughly) 3490-3520 area There is a chance, that the wave 3 has already finished @3420 or even 3437 low. {image}...

My numbers said ... 1.3394, then 3W corrective upmove to a max of 1.3567 ... then more down
  • #15,576
  • Jul 26, 2014 5:31am Jul 26, 2014 5:31am
Quoting infinitus
EU EW count short term we are in a wave 3 of 3 down inside this wave 3 we are most likely in an extending wave 5 so I see good probability for another move lower towards the 3400 area. Speaking in terms of Murrey Math the levels would be 3413 and 3397 extended Probably we will go Sunday night first a bit higher, maybe 3439, then the move lower. The next bigger move should occur to the upper side as a wave 4, which may terminate in the (roughly) 3490-3520 area There is a chance, that the wave 3 has already finished @3420 or even 3437 low. {image}...
I like the sound of this. I'm a novice EW counter but find it very helpful against Fib retracement calcs. I also have 3397 as a downside bounce target so there is still a risk of a sudden move towards this area, which I would prefer if a retrace to 3490/3520 were to occur - that would be a decent 100 pip retest.

I've been accumulating a lot of reading that projects EU to fundamentally reach 1.27 by early 2015 (Forbes) and others around 1.32 - 1.33 so every rally is definitely a short. It's the tricky countermoves that will be interesting, since as a day trader, you could still want to be riding that trend on lower time frames.

edit: incidentally, W1 was 124 pips... It would be a nice pattern for W3 to be 248 pips...which is 3400, with a bit of spillage could get us 3397
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A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #15,577
  • Jul 26, 2014 6:24am Jul 26, 2014 6:24am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} I like the sound of this. I'm a novice EW counter but find it very helpful against Fib retracement calcs. I also have 3397 as a downside bounce target so there is still a risk of a sudden move towards this area, which I would prefer if a retrace to 3490/3520 were to occur - that would be a decent 100 pip retest. I've been accumulating a lot of reading that projects EU to fundamentally reach 1.27 by early 2015 (Forbes) and others around 1.32 - 1.33 so every rally is definitely a short. It's the tricky countermoves that...
  • #15,578
  • Jul 26, 2014 6:42am Jul 26, 2014 6:42am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} I like the sound of this. I'm a novice EW counter but find it very helpful against Fib retracement calcs. I also have 3397 as a downside bounce target so there is still a risk of a sudden move towards this area, which I would prefer if a retrace to 3490/3520 were to occur - that would be a decent 100 pip retest. I've been accumulating a lot of reading that projects EU to fundamentally reach 1.27 by early 2015 (Forbes) and others around 1.32 - 1.33 so every rally is definitely a short. It's the tricky countermoves that will be interesting,...

1.27-1.29 may be the end of a wave 3 here. After a wave 4 correction we may even see the 1.14 to parity level (at least that is what I would love to see)
  • #15,579
  • Jul 26, 2014 6:44am Jul 26, 2014 6:44am
Quoting rbetancor
{quote} My numbers said ... 1.3394, then 3W corrective upmove to a max of 1.3567 ... then more down

the only thing I am worrying about, is a slight possibility, that we are in a multiple 1-2's setup to the downside, which would be able to propel us in a hurry to the downside without much of retracements.

That would suck a bit, I have to admit
  • #15,580
  • Jul 26, 2014 6:48am Jul 26, 2014 6:48am
Quoting infinitus
OK, I have decided the following: I have reduced my long term shorts by 40% now here @ 3465 with offsetting long positions I have following pending orders (all long) @ 3452 (10% of short) @3447 (10%) Edited: moved from 3443 to 3447 @3432 (10%) @3422 (10%) and biggy @ 3413 (30% - making me net long) Editet: wrote mistakenly 3408, but have it set to dailys pivot support 2

all red got triggered and filled

I stay net short so far with net 20% of my original long term short position

when we move to at least 3413 I will be net long with a smaller position
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