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  • #4,141
  • Jul 21, 2014 3:37pm Jul 21, 2014 3:37pm
watching to see if Haliburton will move big
  • #4,142
  • Jul 21, 2014 4:08pm Jul 21, 2014 4:08pm
just reading about NFLX earnings results - Q2 earnings DOUBLED and it's only up 3% on the day? Maybe risk is weighted shortside on these overblown names. Unless it's tacos....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,143
  • Edited 10:40pm Jul 21, 2014 10:28pm | Edited 10:40pm
Scams upon scams. Would you go long HLF after Ackman's expozay tomorrow? HLF down today....

http://www.businessinsider.com/tilso...webcast-2014-7
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-07-21_hlf.png Size: 21 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,144
  • Jul 21, 2014 10:59pm Jul 21, 2014 10:59pm
NUS usually sneezes when HLF catches cold, as good a chance for a bounce as not....after the smoke clears, if there be any...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-07-21_nus.png Size: 21 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,145
  • Jul 21, 2014 11:30pm Jul 21, 2014 11:30pm
Hello Brother The Fool, mostly trade spot fx. I am now looking to expand on a secondary front. Two things, one you can trade spot fx with your roth Ira. It is technical but you have to have a outside company handle the account. I will get you some details. I am going to look at you couple of references. May take me a few days, but I will try to join the thread over the next 3 weeks. Thanks for taking the time and effort. I will go back and read the whole thread also, to try not to bring up old stuff.
  • #4,146
  • Jul 22, 2014 12:17am Jul 22, 2014 12:17am
Quoting Peachpro
Hello Brother The Fool, mostly trade spot fx. I am now looking to expand on a secondary front. Two things, one you can trade spot fx with your roth Ira. It is technical but you have to have a outside company handle the account. I will get you some details. I am going to look at you couple of references. May take me a few days, but I will try to join the thread over the next 3 weeks. Thanks for taking the time and effort. I will go back and read the whole thread also, to try not to bring up old stuff.
Hey Peachpro,

welcome & feel free to share whatever. If you're new to options best to just dive in and start paper trading. Sure I can trade spot fx from the IRA's I have but only with 1:1 leverage. I know what you're referring to, though, and that'd be a way to trade via an IRA with no restrictions. In fact, you can trade almost anything and I know several people who buy/sell real estate in their custodial IRA's...

Anyway, throw up some trade ideas when you're ready.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,147
  • Jul 22, 2014 2:05am Jul 22, 2014 2:05am
does anyone believe Argentina will go into default?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...t-or-boom.html

some decent volume in the YPF Aug puts, @ $27 and $30.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-07-22_ypf.png Size: 59 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,148
  • Jul 22, 2014 8:04am Jul 22, 2014 8:04am
Quoting The Fool
just reading about NFLX earnings results - Q2 earnings DOUBLED and it's only up 3% on the day? Maybe risk is weighted shortside on these overblown names. Unless it's tacos....

Down today in premarket... an hour ago "JPMorgan raised its price target for Netflix shares to $550 (from $500) citing the company's solid Q2 results with continued international subscription strength. The firm reiterates an Overweight rating on the stock."
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,149
  • Jul 22, 2014 8:44am Jul 22, 2014 8:44am
Quoting StrayDog
Well... took a punt on NFLX with 415/420 + 490/495 Iron Condor for July 25th expiration. Got $2.03 credit for it.
Since the stock is going down, my idea was either to close put side, or close the entire IC.
IV crush was nice, since IV dropped from 92-98% down to 50-59%...

At the end I decided to close entire IC, so I bought it back for $0.76.
It was better to close just put side, but... not bad after all, since I am not a experienced in IC.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,150
  • Jul 22, 2014 9:04am Jul 22, 2014 9:04am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Since the stock is going down, my idea was either to close put side, or close the entire IC. IV crush was nice, since IV dropped from 92-98% down to 50-59%... At the end I decided to close entire IC, so I bought it back for $0.76. It was better to close just put side, but... not bad after all, since I am not a experienced in IC.
good trade, you walked away with a healthy net gain and now have that margin freed up to hunt for your next victim.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,151
  • Jul 22, 2014 10:11am Jul 22, 2014 10:11am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} good trade, you walked away with a healthy net gain and now have that margin freed up to hunt for your next victim.
Thanks.

Looking at Pandora, IV of weeklies are very high, about 135-140% now. I am interested in selling that. On ER day I will calculate estimated move and then decide what to do. Also will monitor for such data on my platform. Leaning to bear call spread or IC again.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,152
  • Jul 22, 2014 10:35am Jul 22, 2014 10:35am
There is interesting article I read a few weeks ago regarding ER plays:



http://seekingalpha.com/article/8738...-over-earnings

It is about Iron Condors built in 2 steps. First you buy a wide strangle in advance, (wings) looking to profit from raising IV and maybe a nice pre-earnings move. Then, if necessary, you sell another strangle to form body of IC. Hm....
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,153
  • Edited 11:59am Jul 22, 2014 11:43am | Edited 11:59am
Quoting StrayDog
There is interesting article I read a few weeks ago regarding ER plays: http://seekingalpha.com/article/8738...-over-earnings It is about Iron Condors built in 2 steps. First you buy a wide strangle in advance, (wings) looking to profit from raising IV and maybe a nice pre-earnings move. Then, if necessary, you sell another strangle to form body of IC. Hm....
cool, will read when I have some time. That's what I like about options, though - flexibility. One needs to be always thinking ahead about how one leg may be added to another to build a safer more profitable position.

S&P 2K is within striking distance now, I will not be surprised to see it touched this week. I wonder if there will be a battle at that level?

I have Sep Spy $200 calls that are up net 30% as of today, been holding a while, need patience.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,154
  • Jul 22, 2014 11:46am Jul 22, 2014 11:46am
Quoting The Fool
Scams upon scams. Would you go long HLF after Ackman's expozay tomorrow? HLF down today.... http://www.businessinsider.com/tilso...webcast-2014-7 {image}
sure enough, HLF rebounded, back up >$60 today....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,155
  • Jul 23, 2014 9:18am Jul 23, 2014 9:18am
From one of tastytrades videos:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Expected Move Calculation.jpg Size: 47 KB
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,156
  • Jul 23, 2014 9:23am Jul 23, 2014 9:23am
Using the formula from the picture above, I calculated the expected move for FB when it was $70.50 to be about $4.5 ...
Liz and Jenny (from Liz&Jnny show @ tastytrade) just take 85% of the ATM Straddle... Earnings are today in AH.

Thinking of another Iron Condor here... like 65/66 + 75/76... currently about $0.45 credit.
Could it stay in $4.5... or 6.4%?

Options keeps getting more and more expensive as IV is rising by the minute....
Will do another calculation just one hour prior to market closing.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,157
  • Jul 23, 2014 2:33pm Jul 23, 2014 2:33pm
hey StrayDog,

Are you gonna do the IC on FB? I'm looking at it too. Have had no screentime this morning, but now have enough to get in something before the close...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,158
  • Jul 23, 2014 2:43pm Jul 23, 2014 2:43pm
To tell you the truth, if I had cojones for this I would do it, but moved call spread a bit, since FB is now at 71.

So the IC would be 65/66 + 76/77... now about $0.38 credit.

But still I am not convinced that it would rest in $4.5 range. Maybe it was better strategy for FB and other momentum stock to just buy a strangle but in advance, to profit from rising IV and possible pre-earnings move, and then close the profitable side on ER evening.

Thinking of doing that for next week, for TWTR and AKAM... and I would probably skip the guessing game for FB.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,159
  • Jul 23, 2014 2:44pm Jul 23, 2014 2:44pm
Quoting The Fool
hey StrayDog, Are you gonna do the IC on FB? I'm looking at it too. Have had no screentime this morning, but now have enough to get in something before the close...
em now a few cents over $5, 76/77 & 65/64 nets $0.19 + $0.14 = $0.33....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,160
  • Jul 23, 2014 2:49pm Jul 23, 2014 2:49pm
Quoting StrayDog
Maybe it was better strategy for FB and other momentum stock to just buy a strangle but in advance, to profit from rising IV and possible pre-earnings move, and then close the profitable side on ER evening. Thinking of doing that for next week, for TWTR and AKAM... and I would probably skip the guessing game for FB.
Yep, that usually is the best way to go, leg in 1-2-3 weeks in advance. If we had done that couple weeks ago, when FB was down <$65, we could have made enough on a $60/$70 strangle to close now and call it good.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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