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  • #4,121
  • Jul 19, 2014 7:35pm Jul 19, 2014 7:35pm
AMZN big big dumps last 2 ER's
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,122
  • Edited Jul 20, 2014 12:21am Jul 19, 2014 11:46pm | Edited Jul 20, 2014 12:21am
I might start a new thread. It might be called "Follow the Big Money". Focus would be sharing info and tips about big money "activist" investors & other market moving players. One such below I had never heard of...

http://compoundingmyinterests.com/co...one-knows.html
http://blogs.cfainstitute.org/invest...fill-the-void/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,123
  • Jul 20, 2014 12:38am Jul 20, 2014 12:38am
CONN ranging $40-$50 last few months, next ER Sep, Aug bull put credit spread $35/$40 $0.25/$0.90 nets $0.65
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,124
  • Jul 20, 2014 1:00am Jul 20, 2014 1:00am
SCCO reports ah Monday, it moves.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,125
  • Jul 20, 2014 1:15am Jul 20, 2014 1:15am
MSFT reports ah 7/22. big spike on the layoff news could run further on strong earnings, which I would be eager to fade...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,126
  • Jul 20, 2014 4:15am Jul 20, 2014 4:15am
Hey TF - I know your a fan of the fade! This one's for you

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/daily_...episodes/12557
  • #4,127
  • Jul 20, 2014 1:49pm Jul 20, 2014 1:49pm
Quoting njr
Hey TF - I know your a fan of the fade! This one's for you https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/daily_...episodes/12557
thanks for that, njr. As they note, they've defined a 2sd Bolli band, see MSFT below w/ 20d lookback. One might suggest an additional spike long for MSFT on earnings is a special case, as earnings trading volume is inflated and overpopulated with greedy vultures like me who are looking to grab quick profits. So I still think a long spike would have to revert, and that's the only thing I would trade, if even that.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,128
  • Jul 21, 2014 1:55am Jul 21, 2014 1:55am
https://sp1.yimg.com/ib/th?id=HN.608...1&pid=15.1&P=0

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/least-...154925945.html

http://www.site-by-site.com/adr/latin/adr_arg.htm
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,129
  • Jul 21, 2014 8:19am Jul 21, 2014 8:19am
Hi The Fool.
I am interested in ER plays with following - NFLX, AAPL, JNPR, FB, GILD, AMZN, BIDU and P for this week. Will choose maybe 2 or 3 out of that bunch. Will look at IV of those options and then decide if I would try strangle or bear call spreads. BIDU for instance is at history high, maybe bear call spread would be nice.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,130
  • Jul 21, 2014 11:02am Jul 21, 2014 11:02am
Quoting StrayDog
Hi The Fool. I am interested in ER plays with following - NFLX, AAPL, JNPR, FB, GILD, AMZN, BIDU and P for this week. Will choose maybe 2 or 3 out of that bunch. Will look at IV of those options and then decide if I would try strangle or bear call spreads. BIDU for instance is at history high, maybe bear call spread would be nice.
market risk-on sentiment seems quite teetery, indices been having trouble stringing together positive days, so I still think call selling looks good, generally. I have not made any decisions about any ER plays for the week. I rather prefer shooting down long spikes if they come, but I might enter a pre-ER strangle or two yet if I have time. Good luck with your trades StrayDog & let us know what you are thinking....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,131
  • Jul 21, 2014 11:51am Jul 21, 2014 11:51am
taking a shot at a earnings play for FCX which is on Wednesday, the R-R is pretty good at the moment as the strike range for this trade is only 50c and the options are relatively cheap for a weekly ER expiring Friday

A total of 79c or $79 per strangle position makes this attractive while the real time price is at $38.57. FCX can move when it wants plus with an extra 2 days of time was a must for me

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)
-NYSE
38.57 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.22(0.57%) 17:47 - NYSE Real Time Price


long $39 call for 33c

FCX Jul 2014 39.000 call (FCX140725C00039000)
-OPR
0.33 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.02(6.45%) 17:24

long $38.50 for 46c

FCX Jul 2014 38.500 put (FCX140725P00038500)
-OPR
0.46 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.20(30.30%) 17:31
  • #4,132
  • Jul 21, 2014 11:56am Jul 21, 2014 11:56am
Reluctant to pull a trigger on any of these from my list above... So far, IV on Pandora is the highest, did not expect that. Was looking at 25.5 / 27.5 strangle for July 25th expiration, and IV is about 130%. Made nice money on FB before, maybe I will do some strangle, still thinking.

Looking at next week, thinking of buying strangles in advance. Interesting shares for me would be YELP, AKAM and DDD.
AKAM moved a lot after every earnings, I am looking the last 10 ER. Looking at 57/60 strangle.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,133
  • Jul 21, 2014 12:44pm Jul 21, 2014 12:44pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
taking a shot at a earnings play for FCX which is on Wednesday, the R-R is pretty good at the moment as the strike range for this trade is only 50c and the options are relatively cheap for a weekly ER expiring Friday A total of 79c or $79 per strangle position makes this attractive while the real time price is at $38.57. FCX can move when it wants plus with an extra 2 days of time was a must for me Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) -NYSE 38.57 {image} 0.22(0.57%) 17:47 - NYSE Real Time Price long $39 call for 33c FCX Jul 2014 39.000 call (FCX140725C00039000)...
Hey, CG. Yes I was looking at SCCO and FCX as well. SCCO may have something to say about FCX later today. Thinking about a little more risk @ FCX with an Aug strangle: $37p/$40c @ $0.31/$0.35, $0.66 net....will probably watch SCCO forst though...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,134
  • Jul 21, 2014 1:23pm Jul 21, 2014 1:23pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Hey, CG. Yes I was looking at SCCO and FCX as well. SCCO may have something to say about FCX later today. Thinking about a little more risk @ FCX with an Aug strangle: $37p/$40c @ $0.31/$0.35, $0.66 net....will probably watch SCCO forst though...
not bad prices for AUG
  • #4,135
  • Jul 21, 2014 2:39pm Jul 21, 2014 2:39pm
Interesting video from tastytrade re earnings plays


Chicken Iron Condors for Earnings
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/daily_...episodes/12567


So, NFLX 452 (? 452.5) straddle is priced for about 8.1% move according to news on IB platform ....

I did my calculation on straddle 452.5 strike, it is $37.00 now, so 85% of that is $31.50.... So estimated move would be $31.50 up or down from 452.50, or $421 to $484 estimated range. Bear call spread 490/495 is about $0.95 credit.

Thinking of bear call spreads even further than that, lets say 500/505, which is now about $0.65 credit.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,136
  • Jul 21, 2014 2:49pm Jul 21, 2014 2:49pm
Well... took a punt on NFLX with 415/420 + 490/495 Iron Condor for July 25th expiration.
Got $2.03 credit for it.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,137
  • Jul 21, 2014 2:57pm Jul 21, 2014 2:57pm
Quoting StrayDog
Well... took a punt on NFLX with 415/420 + 490/495 Iron Condor for July 25th expiration. Got $2.03 credit for it.
Good luck with it SD, I'd bet on a pop long for NFLX, but I am content to wait for some post-ER opps.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4,138
  • Jul 21, 2014 3:06pm Jul 21, 2014 3:06pm
I am watching Bloomberg TV, seems that both EPS and Revenues was the same as estimates...

That said, just hoping that it wont move much on guidance and that IV crush would be colossal
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #4,139
  • Jul 21, 2014 3:18pm Jul 21, 2014 3:18pm
Quoting StrayDog
I am watching Bloomberg TV, seems that both EPS and Revenues was the same as estimates... That said, just hoping that it wont move much on guidance and that IV crush would be colossal
you should do well with this trade because of the volume, can't see this moving too much
  • #4,140
  • Jul 21, 2014 3:19pm Jul 21, 2014 3:19pm
Quoting StrayDog
I am watching Bloomberg TV, seems that both EPS and Revenues was the same as estimates... That said, just hoping that it wont move much on guidance and that IV crush would be colossal
that's lookin good, SD - no explosions, just a nice little move up. Look at CMG, up $50+, ~9%, I wish I had a burrito right now...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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