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US Crude Oil with smart VSA and Dark Seasons [only]

  • #221
  • Jul 14, 2014 10:18am Jul 14, 2014 10:18am
99.89 is a very important level on the weekly chart... if price closes below this level on the weekly bar; this could signal more selling in the coming weeks...

Hopefully this level right now until 99.89 should hold and form a support layer....
  • #222
  • Jul 14, 2014 10:22am Jul 14, 2014 10:22am
99.89 is a very important level on the weekly chart... if price closes below this level on the weekly bar; this could signal more selling in the coming weeks...

Hopefully this level right now until 99.89 should hold and form a support layer....


*Something which should be noted and kept under the radar is that USDCAD has hit an important reversal point and should be going higher from here on... if this is the case this could prove bearish for usoil as it moves inversely with that pair! *
  • #223
  • Edited 9:09pm Jul 17, 2014 7:55pm | Edited 9:09pm
Oil rallied significantly today amidst fear in the global market due to the Rus/Ukr issue...

Currently it is still to soon to say what direction oil will take in the short term... if the issue escalates then oil will continue to move higher; if not then it is possible that oil will continue its progression down...

Below I am posting two scenario's where Oil could head in the coming days; if this price level currently does not break through resistance...

However if todays high is taken out and the price of oil extend and closes above the 61.8 (104.4) retracement then there could be more upside and that would implied that a new bullish impulse wave has begun...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usoildailyjuly17.png Size: 84 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USOilH1july17.png Size: 47 KB
  • #224
  • Jul 17, 2014 9:57pm Jul 17, 2014 9:57pm
I plan to begin investing in US Crude around Dec-End to Jan
Hello World!
  • #225
  • Jul 23, 2014 4:19pm Jul 23, 2014 4:19pm
Quoting waleed.khan
Oil rallied significantly today amidst fear in the global market due to the Rus/Ukr issue... Currently it is still to soon to say what direction oil will take in the short term... if the issue escalates then oil will continue to move higher; if not then it is possible that oil will continue its progression down... Below I am posting two scenario's where Oil could head in the coming days; if this price level currently does not break through resistance... However if todays high is taken out and the price of oil extend and closes above the 61.8 (104.4)...

Building from the last chart; two possibiities remain open...
A bearish contracting triangle that will extend the C wave and take crude below $100 and probably even more...

or then an alternate count would be bullish possibility of a butterfly forming at 104.54-105.39; which will also mean the completion on the 5 wave as suggested by the red lines...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: crudejuly23.png Size: 77 KB
  • #226
  • Jul 29, 2014 12:08pm Jul 29, 2014 12:08pm
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} Building from the last chart; two possibiities remain open... A bearish contracting triangle that will extend the C wave and take crude below $100 and probably even more... or then an alternate count would be bullish possibility of a butterfly forming at 104.54-105.39; which will also mean the completion on the 5 wave as suggested by the red lines... {image}
Waleed your first possibility has been bang on the money.

Anyone that has been trading JoeNY speed bumps would have ended up here as well.

It is a pity that he no longer contributes to this thread but any day traders that has studied and followed what was in his JoeNY Price Action Thoughts and what he shared here will not be disappointed.

So Clock Trader how about making your peace with him and then invite him back here.
  • #227
  • Jul 29, 2014 12:24pm Jul 29, 2014 12:24pm
Quoting don555
{quote} Waleed your first possibility has been bang on the money. Anyone that has been trading JoeNY speed bumps would have ended up here as well. It is a pity that he no longer contributes to this thread but any day traders that has studied and followed what was in his JoeNY Price Action Thoughts and what he shared here will not be disappointed. So Clock Trader how about making your peace with him and then invite him back here.

Hey Don...

yeah trade is half way there so far... got the trailing stop losses out as 99-100 is going to be tough resistance area... but once and if taken out we are going to get there...

Hope you have been in the money too with this one...

regards
Waleed
  • #228
  • Jul 29, 2014 12:35pm Jul 29, 2014 12:35pm
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} Hey Don... yeah trade is half way there so far... got the trailing stop losses out as 99-100 is going to be tough resistance area... but once and if taken out we are going to get there... Hope you have been in the money too with this one... regards Waleed

As far as Joeny is concerned... I never minded his input too... He is perhaps too clingy/extremist about his system..but I guess that is understandable; when one finds something that works for "them" -- they are bound to protect/promote it. I guess one should understand that there are many ways to trade; and there should be plenty of room to hear and understand/respect everyone else's point of view too..
  • #229
  • Jul 29, 2014 1:35pm Jul 29, 2014 1:35pm
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} Hey Don... yeah trade is half way there so far... got the trailing stop losses out as 99-100 is going to be tough resistance area... but once and if taken out we are going to get there... Hope you have been in the money too with this one... regards Waleed

Yes followed you on this one along with JoeNY speed bump method for entry.
I agree entirely with what you say that there are many ways to trade.

Now that I am following Joes simpler method I am still taking note of your elliot wave theory but it is not so easy for me to understand it but if you both come to the same conclusion for entries who am I to dismiss what works for both of you.
  • #230
  • Jul 29, 2014 8:23pm Jul 29, 2014 8:23pm
Quoting don555
{quote} Yes followed you on this one along with JoeNY speed bump method for entry. I agree entirely with what you say that there are many ways to trade. Now that I am following Joes simpler method I am still taking note of your elliot wave theory but it is not so easy for me to understand it but if you both come to the same conclusion for entries who am I to dismiss what works for both of you.

I don't think one could have distinguished entry point 2 or B with Joe's channelling method alone...?

Elliott wave theory is probably the best tool for projections; it encompasses channeling, vsa, supply and demand trading...

It's a great map to where the market is likely headed...and better yet it is very fluid; changes with the market structure.

Indeed it is a little complicated to understand initially and a bit tedious when it comes to "counting"...but it is time tested! To put it this way; if it doesn't work at all; then the counter has no idea what he/she is doing!

Glad to hear you were in the money and have found something to work for you!
  • #231
  • Jul 31, 2014 4:25am Jul 31, 2014 4:25am
Hello Waleed
I use Joes speed bump method without the channels and have incorporated pivot points along with the emas that you sorted out for me.
This time everything came together for me maybe I was just lucky.

In your opinion when do you think this oil will turn around ?
  • #232
  • Jul 31, 2014 10:36am Jul 31, 2014 10:36am
Quoting don555
Hello Waleed I use Joes speed bump method without the channels and have incorporated pivot points along with the emas that you sorted out for me. This time everything came together for me maybe I was just lucky. In your opinion when do you think this oil will turn around ?

well current price level should determine....if we get volumes at this level plus reversal price action candles...always a possibility of a double bottom... so have to watch out for that; otherwise coast should be clear for lower...
  • #233
  • Jul 31, 2014 10:52am Jul 31, 2014 10:52am
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} well current price level should determine....if we get volumes at this level plus reversal price action candles...always a possibility of a double bottom... so have to watch out for that; otherwise coast should be clear for lower...
What time-frame do you look for the double bottom on ?
  • #234
  • Jul 31, 2014 10:57am Jul 31, 2014 10:57am
Well longer the better....

but in this case all the charts show a pullback pinbar from $99 om july 15th last time it rallied!

Also on the daily just look back in the past few months and this price level; there are a few pinbars (first may), (first april)...

Guess whats tomorrow...first august (could be a time pattern developing - don't know as yet)

Right now I am not seeing it; not satisfied with the volume levels...
  • #235
  • Jul 31, 2014 1:48pm Jul 31, 2014 1:48pm
Price broken through

​https://www.tradingview.com/v/Nx6EAa2g/
  • #236
  • Jul 31, 2014 2:11pm Jul 31, 2014 2:11pm
Last thing I'd be doing is buying crude right now. It looks terrible and most people are going long. If anything wait for price jumps and short them. Can easily go to 90 and below in coming weeks/months.
  • #237
  • Aug 1, 2014 2:20am Aug 1, 2014 2:20am
Possibility map after target 1 was hit!

This is a critical support area for crude oil; if price holds then we could move sideways for a couple of days... However if we do get a close above the upper trend line then perhaps it is reasonable to assume that the bearish view is over.

If the price breaks below the support area then; there will be more down side...

It is still to early to know what will happen... For all we know this could only be he first part of the abc correction or maybe the beginning of a new bearish impulse cycle...

I will post a new elliottwave cycle in a few days as the direction becomes slightly clearer! https://www.tradingview.com/v/UAfM2W6Z/
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usoilaug1.png Size: 74 KB
  • #238
  • Aug 1, 2014 2:24am Aug 1, 2014 2:24am
Quoting Ck87
Last thing I'd be doing is buying crude right now. It looks terrible and most people are going long. If anything wait for price jumps and short them. Can easily go to 90 and below in coming weeks/months.
True... My view would remain bearish until we don't close above that upper trend line in the chart above.
  • #239
  • Aug 14, 2014 12:37pm Aug 14, 2014 12:37pm
Quoting waleed.khan
Possibility map after target 1 was hit! This is a critical support area for crude oil; if price holds then we could move sideways for a couple of days... However if we do get a close above the upper trend line then perhaps it is reasonable to assume that the bearish view is over. If the price breaks below the support area then; there will be more down side... It is still to early to know what will happen... For all we know this could only be he first part of the abc correction or maybe the beginning of a new bearish impulse cycle... I will post...

This trade (july 17th) has so far worked out so beautifully... i don't feel like taking profit on tp2...

Going to put a trailing stop!

*Patience pays*
  • #240
  • Aug 14, 2014 10:08pm Aug 14, 2014 10:08pm
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} This trade (july 17th) has so far worked out so beautifully... i don't feel like taking profit on tp2... Going to put a trailing stop! *Patience pays*
Glad for you :-)
Hello World!
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