What I've learned so far

I'm more with the people who think they will come with a "virtual dollar" along the lines of bitcoin. The banks already transact in virtual currency anyways so they may come up with a official cryptocurrency and people will be forced to accept it. About the brics bank.....hummm....it may drain some volatility out of the main pairs...who knows.

Never heard about the term VIRTUAL DOLLAR before, where did you see it?

I don't think the BRICS bank will intervene in the Forex market so its influence in this area will be minimal ( if any ) IMHO.

According to what I saw so far they will be focused on funding projects within the BRICS.

Where they can help is if a currency gets under attack ( expediting swaps ) among them.

Due to the lack of volatility I'm having some spare time so I was reading some of my old journals.

Having fun reading what I wrote years ago, I saw a entry from around mid 2009 when a broker was offering 300 dollars if you made 100 trades in a certain period of time.

The broker mentioned it as a "opportunity" for their clients!


I decided to take the "opportunity" and thought it would be possible to end up profitable and on top of it win the 300 dollars.

well the results.

After only 34 trades I was 520 dollars on the hole!

Plus carrying a draw dawn of 233 dollars.

Reading a few pages down I see that my draw down ended in a 350 dollars loss!

I ended getting out of the "opportunity" with only 36 trades.

So the broker made over 90 dollars in commission alone with my trades.

They probably took the other side of my positions and banked close to 900 bucks from my losses.

I don't think I was the only dumb trader to try to profit from this "opportunity" so they made good money with it.

From my side at least I learned not to mess with professionals

Some people know when the probabilities are on their side.

Another very important thing I learned is how wise old sayings are.

Particularly the quote " the more things change the more they stay the same" has been proven to be extremely accurate.

At least for me.

We live in a world of real time information.

TV, satellite, internet, cell phones etc keeps you updated every second on what is happening around the world.

A few years ago we did not have this flexibility of knowing stuff real time.

What about 100 years ago when the majority of regular people got their news though newspapers or word of mouth.

In face of the fact that today we have access to news fast and thats definitely a change.

I wonder if in terms of fast enough and reliability the information we have access today is the same or even worst.

According to history, Nathan Rothschild trough a proprietary news service got to know of the Waterloo's outcome way ahead of official news outlets.

It is said that he went to the London stock market and with a "sad face" started to sell.

The other traders realized he knew something they don't and very aware of Nathan skills as a trader they started to copy his trades and dumping their shares making the price plunge.

But little they knew Nathan had his traders secretly buying everything they could, so when the official news came and it was good the market rebounded.

Nathan Rothschild made a killing and the pigs got slaughtered.

If you analyze our situation today, despite all technology we ( regular people) are pretty much in the same situation of 1811.

Just as an example take a look at the situation of the Malaysia flight in Ukraine.

what do you know about it?

What you saw om TV right?

Or on the internet, or on your phone through a news feed, correct?

So more than 200 years after Nathan Rothschild screw the traders on the London exchange we are subject to the same " interpretation" or "straight face misleading" of somebody that got the news before you.

You go to CNN they have an "interpretation" of the "fact". RT has another "view" of the same "fact".

Thousands of other versions around the net.

The bottom line is that just like from the beginning of human history you are still dependent on WHO brings you the news.

I wonder how much truth is in our school history books.

And to close with another quote:

"History is written by the winners"

I'm noticing something .

I can't say for sure ( it may be just my bias ) but I'm hearing and reading the words "retail traders" too much in the media lately.

What is more interesting is to hear the words retail traders right after millions and even billions.

BBC just released a video about regular people that could very well be your neighbor making millions trading from home.

Bloomberg has an article today about a Japanese day trader making millions and aiming for billions while in his pajamas.

FXCM just slashed their prices making Forex even more affordable to the masses.

Is there a invisible hand ( the one that inflate bubbles ) behind all that?

Will we see a retail Forex bubble in this next bull market?

In a few years you may risk to have the guy washing your car suddenly give you a card where is written " Forex money manager"

People on the very top of the financial food chain know where money is hiding.

They also know how to mesmerize the masses.

One thing that I learned is that where there's smoke there's fire.

One thing I learned in my life is that if you stick with the biggest you have a bigger chance

So I'm gonna talk a little about the pair I trade the most.

Forex market has the biggest turnover (per 24 hours) in the world, the EUR/USD is the biggest part of this market.

I love to trade it, even if the lack of volatility has made my life a little harder lately.

I believe the EUR/USD is around 500 pips from fair value.

This area has been support for years, and at least for the last decade the pair could not stay too long below 1.21 without springing back up.

So I'm trying to figure out if the re test of this area will yield the same results of the last attempts.

One thing I learned is to pay attention to fundamentals, but in the opposite direction.

When the so called "experts" turn bearish I will start buying.

People advise you to trade differently from the herd but I learned that trading against the "experts" is a lot more rewarding.

Take a look at the various "traders sentiment indexes" available ( even the one here on FF) and you will notice that the trend changes first. Than the crowd follows, so no prediction here.

Now something that consistently precedes trend changes is how the "experts" around the media outlets get really berish at the bottom and bullish at the top.

So I'm basically waiting for those idiots to start talking about the euro as a currency disappearing. Or Europe's complete melt down, for me to start going long.

We hear this things all the time from the permabears but I'm not talking about them.

I want to see CNBC , Bloomberg and Reuters really talking about it.

On the brokers side I want to see the "experts" at FXCM , Oanda etc talking about it.

So far I still see them aiming for a bounce so if a bounce happens it will be a really small one.

In july 2012, which is not that long ago, I remember perfectly a "expert" from a highly regarded forex website saying that " the EUR/USD will go to parity", and that comment market the exact bottom.

As I said above we are close to 500 pips from fair price so another 500 pip drop may do it.

Before the media and their "experts" turn really bearish I would expect small bounces and fake breakouts.

Today the "experts" at places like FXCM were quite bearish on EUR/USD.

Mainstream media as Bloomberg and CNBC, also starting to talk more about Europe.

Some predictions on the pair going to 1.20 and even 1.15 hitting the wires.

As the talks pick up and people start to really buy the dollar I will sell it to them.

Fair value around 420 pips away.

Around 350 pips from fair value on EUR/USD and it seems the " experts " are really turning bullish. The "super-experts" at FXCM just threw the towel and are buying dollars. So we should be at or very near a significant retracement.

We need to keep our eyes open on Market news before take any steps for sure.

Nice recovery on the pair already.

Now we have to see if a higher low will be printed over this week.

Funny how the " expert " at FXCM called for buying the dollar yesterday.

At oanda the ratio long/short already flipped.

Hello,

I also join here to know little bit. i am a new trader and my progress slowly. But I believe my experience and people opinion help me to be a good trader. Now a day`s trading become my life. I can`t thought anything without Forex. I am also looking a community where I can talk about that. I think this is the best place for me….Here I can share also get something good……..

Thanks