The True Report on Sugar May 11 (May 6 to 12)

The True Report on Sugar 11 ( May 6 to 12 )

The global financial community is widely deployed to a rise in prices of Sugar 11 in the medium term . The question that many are making me is: When Sugar price increase? This question I wanted to turn to major players in the sugar world . Obviously this was not possible, but a sufficiently representative sample supported by explanatory data is collected and unmistakable present in this special weekly report .


Brazil

According Canaplan , consulting firms , the prospect of a lower sugar production in Brazil , the largest global manufacturer and a reduction in the supply of other manufacturers will be unable to meet the growing demand for sugar , which will have a deficit of 2 to 3 million tonnes harvested in 2014/15 (October / September) , raising the price of sugar in the second half of this year. "Brazil should produce and export less then a bit ' less . This will become more evident when the effect of drought in south-central will bring higher prices in the fourth quarter ," said Caio Carvalho, director of Canaplan during the workshop on sugar cane held in São Paulo last week. According to Carvalho , the average price will tend to increase throughout the semester , but has the potential to break 20-21 cents per pound on the New York Stock Exchange in the fourth quarter. The senior consultant for risk management INTL FCStone , Bruno Lima , also believes that the international price of sugar is expected to resume the up trend since July, when the impact of drought on sugar plantations become more apparent. " Since July , the prices of sugar should start to recover , since the impact of the drought is already beginning to be felt. And it is also the time that the rains of El Niño should begin ," Lima said at the conference. On the demand side , explained that importers who once relied on higher stocks , such as China and Indonesia, could return to the market , having long since consumed most of their stocks .
Although sugarcane known as a peasant culture that is resistant to harsh conditions, in reality it is not. It ' obvious that its productivity depends on the favorable growth conditions , such as the management and the availability of water. So the lack of rainfall recorded between November 2013 and February 2014 has influenced the initial estimates of productivity of sugarcane in south-central 9.9% . This scenario was outlined by a survey conducted by GIFC ( Grupo de irrigacao and Fertirrigação de Cana -de- açúcar do Brasil ) in the states of São Paulo, Goiás and Minas Gerais. The survey allows us to estimate the lower productivity of sugarcane from 5% in Minas Gerais , 8% in Goiás , to end at ' 11 % in São Paulo . The survey showed a decrease in rainfall during the reporting period , compared with historical rates in the order of 50% in São Paulo, and 39% in Goiás .
A further confirmation of the decline in production of sugar cane , even the Associação das Indústrias Sucroenergéticas de Minas Gerais ( Siamig ) estimated a harvest of sugar cane for the 2014/15 to 59.5 million tonnes, 3 % below production year 2013/14 , which was 61.2 million tons. According to its president, Mario Campos , the reduction will occur due to the severe financial crisis and drastic drought that hit the area earlier this year.
Another good news for the prices of Sugar 11 is that the Brazilian government may take early measures to encourage the production of ethanol, as reported by the Minister of Agriculture, Neri Geller . According to him , the government is investigating what can be done to stimulate the sector . He declined to reveal details , but indicated that the dialogue with the Ministry of Finance, which met a few days ago in a meeting with the Minister Guido Mantega , is wider than the simple tax cuts to improve the competitiveness of ethanol compared to gasoline service stations . '

China

The Department of Agriculture in Beijing has cut its estimate of the production of sugar cane in China this season than 465,000 tons to 13.54 million tons due to the damage to crops caused by frost - setting the production in 2014-15 12.86 million tons.
The production of sugar cane in China is expected to decline in the next big season , potentially 1 million tons , as we have seen the country's first cases of arrears in payment of sugar cane . This , coupled with low sugar prices , he directed the farmers to other crops . This trend does not give the impression of decline.
Despite having witnessed this phenomenon in Brazil and especially in India , had never been seen before in China, given the willingness of the country until a short time ago to support the values ​​of the sugar.
Mr. Shaw is expected that China's output of sugar cane (which represents over 90 % of the total sugar production in the country, dwarfing the sugar beet and its derivatives) will fall even more next season , potentially 12.3 million tons.
The growers of sugar cane in the main production areas are planting more profitable crops . In Hainan, it is expected that the area devoted to the cultivation of sugar cane fall by 11%. In Guangxi , the largest province that produces sugar cane with more than 63% of national production is expected to decline by 6% of the areas for the cultivation of sugar cane because of the passage of farmers in fast-growing tree species for industrial use .

India

In the current season , sugar production has fallen by 13 percent to 6.42 million tonnes (Mt ) in Uttar Pradesh. During 2012-13 , the production of sugar in the state stood at 7.4 million tonnes . So there was a considerable drop as much as 1 million tons of sugar produced .
With regard to the serious problem of which I mentioned above , in this report , in the section devoted to China, namely the impossibility of sugar mills to pay wages to farmers , Agriculture Minister Krishna Byregowda said that the stance of the sugar is not justified : " We want the sugar mills to pay all arrears with interest to farmers. Unlike previous years, the factories were exempted from the payment of Rs. 13 for each pound of sugar. wait for a couple of days before to adopt more stringent measures , "he threatened .
As for shipments of sugar from India , the second largest world producer of sugar, are seen in the continuous slowing down after prices on the domestic market rose to a maximum of 15 months.
How will India's sugar exports in the six months ending in September? " Exports may be about 300,000 tons , compared to 1.5 million tonnes in the previous six months," he said Narendra Murkumbi , Shree Renuka Sugars CEO ( SHRS ) Ltd., on May 5.
The lower -than-expected shipments from India may support prices in New York along with the predictions of the first global deficit in five years due to the drought in Brazil and Australia.
"I think because of the uncertainty about the subsidy there can be a lot of sugar exports in the second half of the year ," said Murkumbi . " Domestic prices have risen . Then the parity is no longer there . Domestic demand has been very encouraging this time . And ' certainly more solid than last year."
" I think there are a lot of weather hazards related to sugar in the next six to eight months ," said Murkumbi . "Sugar may be volatile because of this. "
Sugar production in India will be a total of 23.8 million tons in the 12 months that will end on September 30, the lowest level in four years , compared with 25.1 million tons a year earlier after the excess rains have reduced yields , according to an estimate of the association of sugar . Stocks fall to around 6 million tonnes from Oct. 1, from 9.3 million tonnes the previous year , said Murkumbi , reiterating the concept of which I have mentioned in previous reports , that the prospects for the production next year will depend on the monsoon rains ( provided in sharp decline due to El Nino ) .
To get a better idea on exports , remember the words of Abinash Verma, director general ISMA (Indian Sugar Mills Association ) who recently said: " With prices finally looking attractive here in India, I believe any major export deal will only happen if global prices jump to 18.5 cents per pound . " In essence confirms that the Indians have no interest in sugar export at prices below $ 18.50 , insofar as they accomplish more on the domestic market .

U.S.A.

The Mexican sugar industry - 20% of which is owned by the Mexican government - has increased exports to the United States from 9% of the U.S. market in fiscal year 2012 to almost 18% in 2013.
The growth of Mexico's exports to the United States is fueled by substantial subsidies in higher dumping margins of 45% or more , according to the ASA ( American Sugar Alliance). It is argued that Mexico is directly responsible for the collapse of sugar prices in the United States , which have fallen by 50 % since the end of 2011 and are back to the lows of 1980. , The positive closing of this dispute may also have positive effects on Sugar 11 , at least from a psychological viewpoint .

El Nino

The Indian Meteorological Department said this month that the summer rains are likely to be below normal levels due to El Niño . In 2009, the year of the last El Niño event , the monsoon rains in India were 23% below normal levels , and have sharply reduced the production of sugar , helping to drive prices to record levels of Sugar 11 .

"The expectation is that El Niño is “more likely to affect Australia, Southeast Asia , and Latin American countries such as Brazil and Peru ," said Zhou Jun , an analyst at Zheshang Tianma Futures Co.

The India Meteorological Department ( IMD) has predicted a 60 percent chance of El Nino this year with monsoon rains below the average . I repeat for the umpteenth time that El Nino can cause extreme drought conditions . As is well known : the repetition is the mother of memory.
El Nino is a weather condition that lasts for about a year on average. This period coincides with the warming of sea surface temperatures that affect wind patterns , floods and drought in different parts of the world.
According Skymet , a private meteorologist , El Nino and the Indian monsoon are inversely proportional . The major drought in India since 1871 have been El Nino drought , including the recent ones in 2002 and 2009 , he said.
A moderate El Nino in 2002 caused one of the worst droughts.
The historical data of 126 years ( 1880-2005 ) compiled by Skymet show that about 90 percent of all the evolution of El Nino led to below normal rainfall and 65 per cent of the evolution of El Nino led to drought. As already stated in previous reports, one thing is clear that El Nino affects the monsoon rains in India. During this time, the rain is generally lower than normal , this obviously has its impact on agricultural production , particularly sugar cane .
The temperature of the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean began to rise in the values ​​: in early May is already 0.5 ° C above average in all regions. Moreover, according to NOAA , the U.S. agency in April , there were wind anomalies along the Pacific , which indicates a continuing trend toward El Niño . According to meteorologist of Somar , Celso Oliveira , the expectation is that these temperatures remain above normal at least until September , which is the consolidation of the phenomenon in the coming months . " The impression of what is happening is that we have a classic and intense El Niño , but in the short term ," said meteorologist Celso Oliveira . The figures that have been presented so far indicate a 60% probability that El Nino could develop in June, the figure rises to 65% in the month from July to September , and the possibility of the emergence of the phenomenon is more than 70% . The simulations show that in the month of June, in Rio Grande do Sul will feel more of the first effects of El Niño : rain intensified in the first half , due to the formation of cold fronts , which will be stationed in the state. This will cause difficulty in harvesting sugar cane.

Some hedge funds continue to hold their net long positions with the tacit agreement to keep them up to that El Nino has not reached the apex of its devastating effects. In other words, The Power will continue to support prices until then. This is the best choice , which demonstrates acute foresight.
If Brazil are expecting higher prices of Sugar July 11 (without taking into account the latest forecasts on a strong El Nino since June) , an overview of the major producing and consuming countries , it makes me conclude that prices are coming a rise as early as June , if not this month. And ' likely that someone wants to play early.

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translated from brazian and Italian, Errors and omissions excepted

The True Report on Sugar 11 ( 13 to 19 May )

Last week, producers , traders and consumers gathered in New York for the week of sugar. What are the unanimous conclusions ?
The end of " phase surplus" in the supply of sugar in the world is rapidly approaching, and a "phase deficiency " approaches , it finally had to admit the International Sugar Organisation (ISO) , last week. I say that by three months . Nevertheless, things are made ​​worse state than ISO, and we will see below why.
ISO also confirms that the global demand , meanwhile, is seen growing at the average rate of 2.2%. Also reports that " the phase of deficit could finally start to develop." It also provides a production deficit of about 4 million tonnes in 2014/15 .
The ISO also provides a production surplus of 4.4 million tonnes in the 2013/14 season , against 11.2 million tonnes in the previous year . And here I disagree , because I believe truly over- estimates for the current season. On the other hand I'm not the only one to see it like that , although very probably I was the first to say it. We will see below how they see other analysts interviewed on this special occasion .
Returning ISO. The organization also predicted that the production of sugar cane in the Center -South of Brazil (90 % of national production) will drop to 575 million tons in the season 2014/15 , compared with 597 million in estimated 2013/14 season .
As regards sugar production in the center -south of Brazil, the ISO is expected in 2014/15 to 33.4 million tonnes compared to 34.3 million tons planned for 2013/14 . On this I think ISO has overestimated the quantities produced . In fact they are not in any way taking into account not only the devastating effects of El Nino , but also a number of issues of which I will mention later in this report.
I agree , however the decline in production in India, Brazil , EU , Ukraine and Mexico always provided by the Organization.
Another note analyst firm , perhaps most famous for his over- estimates the surplus production worldwide , Platts Kingsman had to revise his ideas of a strong global sugar surplus of 2.1 million tonnes in 2014-15 , lowering , however, prediction to a production deficit of 239,000 tons.
Copersucar also sees a deficit of 2-3 million tons in the next season together with a small surplus for that year, due to the drop in cane production in the Center -South of Brazil in the season 2014/15 ( April-March ) , falling to about 570 million tonnes from 596 million in the previous harvest, but "the risk is to the downside ," said Chief Executive Officer Paulo Roberto de Souza .
The most interesting thing was said by Bruno Lima INTL FCStone , Brazil : "The transition to the deficit may be as early as this season."

I mention last, and you must excuse me if I could not appoint in this report all the players of world sugar , Pliny Nastari , president of Datagro , asserts that " The surplus world is fading very quickly." The occasion which has confirmed the damage caused by drought production for the cultivation of cane Brazilian Center South, which has planned to 574.6m tonnes.

Am I the most pessimistic about the production of Brazilian sugar cane ? I would say the most realistic . Consider with me the following reasons , then give me wrong if you can :

1. The ATR in sharp decline . In April it was only 107.62 .
The director of Unica , Antonio de Padua Rodrigues confirmed what I told you in the penultimate report: " There is a significant volume of sugar cane that is not collected at optimum ripeness , because the management of the cultivation is done to correct problems arising both frost occurred in the last season as the drought of early 2014 . "

2 . Reduced production due to financial difficulties.

In this regard, Rodrigues says that " in times of crisis , it is natural that the production units in financial difficulties reduce the cultivation and maintenance of industrial and agricultural machinery. This, together with the prospect of a more humid climate in the second half , can affect the grinding during the remaining months. "

3 . Closure of several plants for the processing of sugar cane .
UNIQUE estimated in January that 256 plants had planned to begin operations by the end of April. However, only 215 companies were already at work , a number significantly lower than expected and is also below the 236 units recorded on the same date of the harvest 2013/2014.

4 . Reduced yield per hectare.
With regard to agricultural productivity, a survey conducted by the CTC indicates that the average yield of the product collected in April stood at only 75.30 tons of sugar cane per hectare , compared to 83.00 tonnes calculated in the same month the ' the previous year - a reduction of 9.28% .

5 . A lower quantity of cane for the production of sugar to the advantage of enhanced production of ethanol.
The total volume of sugar cane processed since the beginning of the season 2014/2015 until 30 April , only 35.69 % went to the production of sugar , a significant decline compared to 39.36 % for the same period of 2013.

6 . Reduced production of sugar.
The production of sugar accumulated since the beginning of the season until the end of April stood at 1.47 million tons , a decrease of 13.33 % compared to the same period in the previous harvest. Over the last fortnight ( April 16 to 30 ) , the production of sugar has increased greatly decrease the 930 560 tonnes , against 1,460,000 tons last year (down 36.12 %).

7 . Increased ethanol consumption on the domestic market .
Sales of ethanol mills in the south -central region in April totaled 1,810 million liters , an increase of 10.65% compared to the same period last year (1,640 million liters) . This growth is mainly due to the expansion of the internal market , equal to 1.64 billion liters , up from 1.57 billion liters recorded in April 2013 ( an increase of 4.63% ) .

8 . Demands for more ethanol from abroad.
Exports totaled 170.28 million liters in April, more than double the quantity exported in the same month of 2013. This increase was due to exports to the U.S. market, whose salary was about 4.0 % higher than the national market.

9 . Demand for biofuels in Brazil will grow in the coming weeks .
Rodrigues explains that "over the past 27 days, while the price received by the producer of ethanol hydrate in the State of São Paulo fell by 19.31% , in service stations the pump price fell by only 0.49% ." The expectation is that the demand for biofuels increases in the coming weeks , when the decline in the producer price will actually be transferred to the final consumer .

10 . Plantations old , not renovated , they will produce less.
" The productivity and yields may worsen. When the market is so , you do not renew the barrel as it should be , "said de Souza ( Copersucar ) . Fact, the oldest barrel is more susceptible to the effects of bad weather , including the major rains that Brazil might expect with the coming Nino .
Do not think that these reasons are more than plausible to expect an immediate production deficit ? To these could be added the devastating effects of El Nino .

U.S.A.

Food manufacturers who are facing a decline in stocks of sugar in the United States can exert pressure on the government for increases in import quotas . The fear is that a trade dispute with Mexico could curb inflows from that country.
The supply of domestic sugar will drop by as much as one-third will end imports from Mexico , reported the U.S. Department of Agriculture . There is concern that the threat of sanctions could hinder Mexican imports and supplies close . The USDA requires that the ratio stocks / usage , which indicates the adequacy of the supply will drop to 9.1 percent . This would be the lowest since 2012, when the government intervened to allow more imports from countries such as Brazil. The latest forecast is well below the range 13.5 to 15.5 per cent used by the government to assess the adequacy of the estate or sweetener in one of the largest sugar markets in the world. The reduced supplies specified by the USDA report and the ITC ruling reinforced concerns that the availability could collapse by the end of the year at levels considered too low by food producers and the government. "Many sugar quotas will be necessary unless there is an agreement, " said Frank Jenkins, President of JSG Commodities in South Norwalk , Connecticut.
It provides a hot summer for sugar. Hot Sugar Prices

What are the predictions for the immediate price of Sugar 11 ?
Responds Julio Llorente , the commercial director of Sucre, a merchant of St. Paul, " The rally will probably extend to 23 cents by July ."

Of the same opinion are many hedge funds , who see Sugar 11 as a medium term investment .
Now you also think that sugar 11 is the best commodity in the medium term ? If you still have any doubt, do not miss it with the next report.

The True Study Centre

If you appreciate this exclusive report you can prove it by helping the Pay Pal account: [size=3][i][u][b][email protected][/b][/u][/i][/size] this will be able to continue to provide a weekly report on sugar and other initiatives

translated from brazian and Italian, Errors and omissions excepted

The True Report on Sugar 11 (20-26 May) at this link:

http://www.finanzaeinvestimenti.it/c...ggio-2-14.html

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This link is available the new report of July Sugar:

http://www.finanzaeinvestimenti.it/r...-agricole.html

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Sugar, The True Report: started a long bullish phase

Quando a guidare i prezzi è l'analisi tecnica solamente ed è sganciata completamente dai valori fondamentali del bene, allora siamo in pieno rischio bolla. I prezzi possono esplodere tra le mani ed alcuni (o molti) malcapitati possono farsi veramente male.
Può avvenire anche che i prezzi siano particolarmente depressi, e che l'analisi tecnica incoraggi un approccio bearish sul bene. Anche qui il rischio di farsi male è concreto, reale, perchè come la bolla può esplodere tra le mani, i prezzi troppo depressi possono improvvisamente impennarsi in una curva così ripida da bruciare in poco tempo anche i traders più esperti.

E' possibile allora conciliare analisi tecnica e fondamentale? Certamente. Non solo, possiamo includere anche un'analisi statistica basata sulla stagionalità delle varie commodities.
Ora, è proprio Sugar 11 a mettere d'accordo tutte e tre le analisi e vedere per almeno i prossimi mesi un trend estremamente bullish per il nostro beneamato zucchero.

Ora vedremo in estrema sintesi il lavoro del The True Centro Studi, in questi giorni caldi e di sole, che portano a lavorare a mezzo servizio.

Partiamo dall'analisi statistica: i minimi di prezzo vengono toccati in primavera, i massimi in inverno, a cavallo tra la fine dell'anno in corso ed l'inizio del nuovo anno (cfr grafico 2010-2014).

Per quanto riguarda l'analisi tecnica facciamo riferimento al grafico del 2013-2014: nel rettangolo dell'anno 2013 potete notare una figura identica a quella formatasi recentemente, nello stesso identico periodo: la prima metà di luglio . Nel 2013 ha dato origine ad un movimento rialzista interessante, durato per alcuni mesi.

Per quanto riguarda i fondamentali, prendo in esame il più grosso produttore ed esportatore: il Brasile. Ebbene le esportazioni maggiori, quelle che per intenderci hanno superato i tre milioni di tonnellate mensili, sono avvenute tutte nei mesi che vanno da luglio a novembre.
Nello specifico sono state 8: Agosto, Settembre, Ottobre e Novembre 2010, Luglio e Agosto 2011, Ottobre 2012 e Agosto 2013.
Come si sa, una maggior richiesta del bene porta ad un aumento dei prezzi a parità di quantità prodotta, ma in questo caso siamo abbastanza certi che la produzione possa essere in calo, anche del 10%, vista l'estrema siccità che ha indebolito e ridotto la quantità di zucchero (ATR) nella canna.

Queste sono solo alcune delle tante evidenze che portano razionalmente a credere che rivedremo anche questo fine anno un aumento dei prezzi. Se a ciò si dovesse aggiungere El Nino, con le sue disastrose manifestazioni, beh allora il quadro sarà completo. E a chi mi diceva quando inizierà questa lunga fase bullish (che a mio avviso sarà più estesa in termini temporali delle altre), io rispondo che è iniziata lunedi 14 luglio 2014, pur essendo in un momento poco favorevole alle commodities.

Ah, dimenticavo una cosa, per essere completo il quadro rialzista, dovremmo vedere i produttori brasiliani esitare a vendere a questi bassi livelli di prezzo e importanti hedge funds più o meno silentemente avere la bocca zuccherina.
E a me risulta che ciò si stia verificando, cosicchè i 25,57 $ di quotazione nel medio periodo (12-18 mesi), saranno superati di slancio.

The True Centro Studi