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What I've learned so far

  • #121
  • Mar 3, 2014 5:13pm Mar 3, 2014 5:13pm
Quoting thehouse
{quote} I would be careful with trading rooms or groups while your trading. It can lead to too many distractions and you could be taking advice from someone who has no idea what their doing. My biggest thing I learned in trading over 7+ years of trading. The number of people who think they know how to trade 95% compared to the 5% who actually know how to trade.
I agree, that's well-known. Did you know that 95% loses money and 5% doesn't? About 3% doesn't win nor lose.. and only 2% makes actually money which is moreover Smart Money. These are not individual forex traders like us, but big banks, hedge funds etc.
95% of the people who are trading currency pairs do this to make profit. 5% do trading but NOT to make profit (examples are: if you travel to Turkey and change euros to Turkish lira; if Philips US made a new technological innovation then lots of dollars will be exchanged).
These 95% people who DO aim for making profit use (appearantly) different methods/strategies. The clue is, the most used methods/strategies work the best. That's how the market works. This means:
- of these 95% the gross will draw trendlines
- use Moving Average 100 and 200

These two work the best, because they are most used. Less used tools but still just enough so that they work are:
- fibonacci
- macd (since this consists of MAs it makes sense that it works well)

As you probably understand, most forex traders don't even know how every feature of macd works which makes this tool less trustworthy than for example drawing trendlines.

The rule in forex trading is: the less indicators, the better. Usually 3 indicators is best.
Other rule is: the more good signals, the better. Note: signals NOT from indicators. I did my best for you to accumulate over 60 good signals to cross (say: check) before entering a trade. (I wrote everything myself)

Good signals in a continuation:
- lower low (when main trend goes down)/ higher high (when main trend goes up)
- Triangle formation
- Good signal: first bond markets move, then forex moves. (so if gold/oil goes up, dollar goes down soon after)
- CAD/JPY and the price of oil: Canadian dollar imports 99% oil. So if the value of oil rises, then CAD rises and USD drops. When the value of gold rises, USD drops.
- Longer-term trendlines are more trustworthy than short-term trendlines
- Other pairs (with this currency) going the same direction
- High volume
- Next candle higher (in uptrend)
- Next candle lower (in downtrend)
- The larger the candle
- Candlesticks in continuation: Counter attack pattern
- Trendlines
- Counter-trendlines
- usually there is a continuation after news peek (when it went the wrong direction)
Good signal in a reversal:
- Trible top
- Double top
- trends usually go in the opposite direction of the spike
- The newer the (market price) level
- The longer the (white) candle than the previous (black) candle
- The longer round number hasn’t been seen
- Broken trendline
- Extremely overbought/oversold
- divergence
- Low volume- The longer the shadow to the wrong direction (compared to previous)
- The longer the consolidation
- Candlesticks:
Tweezers (only in weekly/monthly chart)
Doji
Spinning top
engulving pattern
Hammer
Hanging man
Morning star
Evening star
Belt-hold
Piercing pattern
Harami pattern
Harami cross
Railroad track
- Formations:
Head and shoulders
Break-formation
Wedge (2 lines getting smaller)(first oscillator then trend indicator)
123 (W/M)
3 pyramids
Mushroom/saucer
Good signals in a confluence:
- Breakout> retest> continuation
- Breakout (range: triangle/pennant/flag (not trustworthy))
- Breakout (divergence in indicator window)
- Old SR becomes new SR
- After 7-12 higher highs (it’s overbought), then usually the market goes down (on daily/weekly chart)
- if the upper shadow gets above the top red line (resistance 1)(aka retesting/crack and snap). No ‘real body’ (of a candle) closed above it.
- Long at overbought
- Short at oversold
- Higher timeframes (3 timeframes in 1 direction)
- High volume
- Next candle is higher/lower
- No news: 10PM-1AM (eastern time)
- High volatility timezone: 9-10, 14-18 (Dutch time)
- Within ATR (daily range)
- Pending order on resistance/support level (previous swing)
- Buy/sell at lowest/highest point
- Enter a bit before
- Round number
- Half number
- Breakout + Fibonacci
- Clean breakout
- Clean formation
- Clean candle pattern
- High volatility
- (suddenly) high volume is breakout
- At psychological price level
- The more times SR is bounced at
- The more current SR bounce is
- Fibonacci:
- the longer the timeframe (height of pips)
- double fib (eg. daily 50% and monthly 61.8%)
- Good RR
- Use trailing stop (instead of TP)
- Close trade before Wednesday 10PM (Dutch time)(avoid triple rollover)
- When entering a trade, don’t put it where you want to enter, but instead put it at stoploss level (as pending order)
- Bearish when market price is at the top
- Bullish when market price is at the bottom

Does anybody else know other good signals?
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  • #122
  • Mar 3, 2014 5:23pm Mar 3, 2014 5:23pm
Quoting MapTheMarket
What i have learned so far (lost 2 live accounts already): 1. Good Things happen to those who wait. 2. Forget about earning a hundred thousands, millions or being listed in Forbes billionaires list in a fast way. 3. Follow a strict MM and stick to it by any means necessary. (My hardest part of trading) 4. Plan your trade and trade your plan. Others: 1. This business is manipulated imo. 2. Jewish conspiracies. Bernanke is Jewish. -
I agree, and I suggest every beginner to start using a trading plan at for his next 5 trades. You can use my trading plan so you have a good insight what trading is all about.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trading plan.JPG Size: 56 KB
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  • #123
  • Mar 3, 2014 5:40pm Mar 3, 2014 5:40pm
Quoting MarginCalled
{quote} Vitez, I never traded futures so I can't comment on it. An appealing thing futures offers is real volume. I stopped using preset stops many years ago because of MM spikes and taking me off positions for nothing. I have a panic stop at around 200 pips. I doubt the broker will respect it in case of something going very bad but anyways it is there. I'm a 100% manual trader so TP are also manual. I don't use EAs because for me it is like showing your hand in a poker game. Sorry for a kind of empty post but I trade in a very simplistic way. My...
The first time when I heard of Forex I thought in myself: how is it possible that someone who is investing 10,000s of euros in forex loses all his money? How? It's impossible. The only way you could lose money is if you WANT to lose this money, is what I thought and I still agree with this. Because with at least a part of this money you can invest in trainings to learn MQL language and thus learn to program EAs and scripts. This way you enter a trade at the exact pip, and since every pip makes money you would be able to make even more money (and thus be able to raise your position lot size).

If you are more than 2 years in Forex I suggest to use EAs. For example, you have drawn a trendline and you want a pending order whenever the market price within 1 month touches this trendline, then you would use an EA. Open MT4, go to your terminal pane and click on the code base tab. Read through them and you'll see very handy EAs. For example:
- Stop Loss Mover. This allows you to automatically move your SL to breakeven at a predefined level. Come on! This is a direct forex rule which is: never let a winning trade, become a losing trade.
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  • #124
  • Mar 4, 2014 12:04am Mar 4, 2014 12:04am
Quoting michaellobry
{quote} The first time when I heard of Forex I thought in myself: how is it possible that someone who is investing 10,000s of euros in forex loses all his money? How? It's impossible. The only way you could lose money is if you WANT to lose this money, is what I thought and I still agree with this. Because with at least a part of this money you can invest in trainings to learn MQL language and thus learn to program EAs and scripts. This way you enter a trade at the exact pip, and since every pip makes money you would be able to make even more money...
Your post brought back some memories about my very first trades. I remember not understanding well how a account could be wiped out. Few months ago a friend called me asking about forex. I explained him how it works and gave him all the warnings possible. Few days later he called back and asked it there was any restrictions on when and how to close a position. I said no. you can close your position when you decide to do it. Than he asked , how can somebody lose his whole account if you can close your position as soon as it goes against you? Two months later he called in despair....his account hanging by a thread. Aren't we humans all the same!!
So, you think you have rights? LOL
  • #125
  • Mar 4, 2014 1:31am Mar 4, 2014 1:31am
I am not a guru by any means but my best insight in trading is
Learn to stay away from market for right time.
Nature teaches this beautifully.Big Cats waiting for right time to attack etc.This boils down to Patience! If you don't have it then actively practice patience.
When you see a "good" trade DON"T trade often times you will realize you were too early.

I have my own system which is base on Bollinger Bands.I can't teach you since I make discretionary decisions even with good signal what to take what not to.

This article I read summarizes my philosophy about trading.

What Crocodiles Can Teach You About Trading


Can trading be this simple? Yes.Nature is the best teacher.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #126
  • Mar 4, 2014 1:40am Mar 4, 2014 1:40am
Quoting MarginCalled
Another thing I learned over the years is not to trust in back testing. Nothing wrong with back testing in itself but the data available which your EA is based is trash. I found this video that seems to give a logical reason for back testing inaccuracy. To have a solid base on your strategy it is important to test it in various market scenarios. Markets change over time so you need a lot of years of data to get to some conclusions. But if you rely on metatrader alone and free data available on the internet you are wasting your time' MT5 is even...

thanks margin, excellent info
  • #127
  • Mar 4, 2014 1:40am Mar 4, 2014 1:40am
Margincalled thanks for an insightful thread. I particularly liked the comment about challenging the brain. I am discovering traits about myself that I didn't know I had. I also have discovered that when I am not good emotionally due to other problems in my life, that's when I make the dumbest mistakes like selling low and buying high. I have been trading for 3 years now and I am not ready to leave my job, but I really hope to by the end of this year. I have noticed that my brain is getting a good workout, whereby I was complacent in the beginning. Now I study like crazy and I have found that it's made me a stronger person who knows herself and limitations.
  • #128
  • Edited Mar 5, 2014 1:15am Mar 4, 2014 1:58am | Edited Mar 5, 2014 1:15am
Quote
I would like to challenge a point of the crocs metaphor.I'm against over trading. but if you don't trade often enough it builds up the "fear" part of fear and greed traders psychology. At least it does for me. If I'm not trading my signals I start to get nervous and second guess myself to the point of not being able to trade at all. It did happen in the past and it can happen again. I have to be in activity to stay sharp. Since this thread has a lot of videos let me post this one here from my youtube channel. Note how PTJ advise you to "always trade"!! Practice makes perfection.
Sorry guys the old video on the post was wrong....this is the correct video to put some basis on my point.

Inserted Video
So, you think you have rights? LOL
  • #129
  • Mar 4, 2014 2:12am Mar 4, 2014 2:12am
Quoting ForexOracle
{quote} I would like to challenge a point of the crocs metaphor.I'm against over trading. but if you don't trade often enough it builds up the "fear" part of fear and greed traders psychology. At least it does for me. If I'm not trading my signals I start to get nervous and second guess myself to the point of not being able to trade at all. It did happen in the past and it can happen again. I have to be in activity to stay sharp. Since this thread has a lot of videos let me post this one here from my youtube channel. Note how PTJ advise you to "always...
Depends what your goals are.
Croc metaphor is more about swing trader.For Scalper its pretty much not applicable although I rather trade 4 times a month and make 6-10% equity then trade 500 trades in same period make less with more stress and hours invested.
I find profitable traders generally trade Longer TF.Its a preference.I am not 25yrs old with endless time in my hands.I have family kids mortgage,wife etc.In short time is precious.
When one starts to learn to draw they draw a lot,cubes,fruits,animals etc.As your skill becomes proficient you start focusing yourself what you try to express yourself.To be able to do that prior steps are necessary.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #130
  • Mar 4, 2014 2:20am Mar 4, 2014 2:20am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Depends what your goals are. Croc metaphor is more about swing trader.For Scalper its pretty much not applicable although I rather trade 4 times a month and make 6-10% equity then trade 500 trades in same period make less with more stress and hours invested. I find profitable traders generally trade Longer TF.Its a preference.I am not 25yrs old with endless time in my hands.I have family kids mortgage,wife etc.In short time is precious. Regards
Got that. And I'm in no way advising over trading. But in my case the less I trade the more insecure I get to take the next signal and pull the trigger. Maybe its just me !! I'm not a scalper but trading lets say twice a month would make trading impossible for me....I think.
So, you think you have rights? LOL
  • #131
  • Mar 4, 2014 2:26am Mar 4, 2014 2:26am
Quoting ForexOracle
{quote} Got that. And I'm in no way advising over trading. But in my case the less I trade the more insecure I get to take the next signal and pull the trigger. Maybe its just me !! I'm not a scalper but trading lets say twice a month would make trading impossible for me....I think.
At least you know what your needs are.Its a process.Everyone is different.We all gravitate towards things that speak to us.
Difficulty being able to gravitate things that are profitable instead of chasing losing systems,ideas etc although I guess that's unavoidable.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #132
  • Mar 4, 2014 7:11am Mar 4, 2014 7:11am
Quoting ForexOracle
{quote} Your post brought back some memories about my very first trades. I remember not understanding well how a account could be wiped out. Few months ago a friend called me asking about forex. I explained him how it works and gave him all the warnings possible. Few days later he called back and asked it there was any restrictions on when and how to close a position. I said no. you can close your position when you decide to do it. Than he asked , how can somebody lose his whole account if you can close your position as soon as it goes against you?...
Exactly, in my circle of friends the exact same situation. How long does it take for a normal person to earn 10,000s of euros? Pretty long right? So my first thoughts when starting Forex was, why not take my time with learning Forex otherwise I just waste money. So instead of gambling my money in the beginning of my forex career, I read through 100s of ebooks and watched tons of video courses and wrote over 150 pages about forex. I even thought that I should train others which I then did.. just to feel comfortable with trading. All strategies that I had gathered (in my Word document) I practiced and that's pretty much my forex life.

Any advice on this? How could I have done better?
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  • #133
  • Mar 4, 2014 7:16am Mar 4, 2014 7:16am
Quoting Davit
I am not a guru by any means but my best insight in trading is Learn to stay away from market for right time. Nature teaches this beautifully.Big Cats waiting for right time to attack etc.This boils down to Patience! If you don't have it then actively practice patience. When you see a "good" trade DON"T trade often times you will realize you were too early. I have my own system which is base on Bollinger Bands.I can't teach you since I make discretionary decisions even with good signal what to take what not to. This article I read summarizes my...
I think I also test my patience which is definitely needed. Once my patience left me a very nice trade then still I won't trade immediately. In this situation I just put a pending order just above or below it just in case it touches it. Most of the time it doesn't touch my pending order so it won't activate (then I delete it after a while manually.. but sometimes I just 'removing pending trade automatically after 2 or 4 hours'). But in the case (which has 5 or 20% probability) of touching my pending order I usually make money. This way of trading is called, conservative trading. I miss a lot of trades and only focus on the ones with a high probability.
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  • #134
  • Mar 4, 2014 7:42am Mar 4, 2014 7:42am
Quoting michaellobry
{quote} Exactly, in my circle of friends the exact same situation. How long does it take for a normal person to earn 10,000s of euros? Pretty long right? So my first thoughts when starting Forex was, why not take my time with learning Forex otherwise I just waste money. So instead of gambling my money in the beginning of my forex career, I read through 100s of ebooks and watched tons of video courses and wrote over 150 pages about forex. I even thought that I should train others which I then did.. just to feel comfortable with trading. All strategies...
Since this thread is about learning there i go with my 2 cents!! What I learned is to be consistent. It does not matter if you can make 1000% in one month. If you are not CONSISTENT you will lose all money you made and some more. I burned a small fortune learning. You have to start with a relative small account. Enough to hurt but not enough to kill you. The pain will keep you focus. Nothing like a loss to open your eyes to how the markets moves. Than as you learn and become CONSISTENT, you add more money to the account.
So, you think you have rights? LOL
  • #135
  • Mar 4, 2014 11:19pm Mar 4, 2014 11:19pm
Quoting llonigro
Margincalled thanks for an insightful thread. I particularly liked the comment about challenging the brain. I am discovering traits about myself that I didn't know I had. I also have discovered that when I am not good emotionally due to other problems in my life, that's when I make the dumbest mistakes like selling low and buying high. I have been trading for 3 years now and I am not ready to leave my job, but I really hope to by the end of this year. I have noticed that my brain is getting a good workout, whereby I was complacent in the beginning....
You are welcome.

First goal here is to make friends and help people.

Mental development is a very good byproduct of trading, because your brain has to be on all the time.

The way I see it is just like a price level when it is broken, and a sell zone becomes a buy zone.

If you fight your mental laziness and overcome it, what was formally pain becomes pleasurable.

I really have a kick out of research and study!

What I used to procrastinate , I'm now eager to do.
Don't call me. I call you!
  • #136
  • Mar 4, 2014 11:25pm Mar 4, 2014 11:25pm
Informative video on how a small country with a strong currency can not only survive but thrive.
I'm probably biased because I live (and love) here, but I agree with everything they say in this documentary.

Inserted Video
Don't call me. I call you!
  • #137
  • Jul 8, 2014 10:57am Jul 8, 2014 10:57am
http://edition.cnn.com/video/?/video....google.com%2F

Another thing I learned is that to be a successful trader, one of the most important things that I do is making sure that I have my "finger on the pulse" of up and coming opportunities and trends in the marketplace.

And one area that I see becoming the "next big thing" is 3D printing. I believe that we are about to witness a revolution in manufacturing that will suppress everything we've witnessed since the turn of the 19th century.

Just imagine, the day to day appliances we now use, such as washers and dryers for example, will become obsolete. With an in-house 3D printer, you'll be able to print your own shoes, clothes, dishes, utensils, and much more.

All you will have to do is purchase the necessary, "raw material", download a specific software, and print all your items in house.

The items will not be built to last, but due to the low cost of producing it yourself, and the fact that it will be 100% recyclable, it won't matter.

Eventually, we will come to a point where you will be able to download and print everything we need, including big ticket items such as a car, appliances, and even homes.

The transition, will of course, be slow as many jobs will be lost in the process. However, I don't see any way for this to be avoided.

The rewards will be too great, and the possibilities will be endless!!!
Don't call me. I call you!
  • #138
  • Jul 15, 2014 9:33pm Jul 15, 2014 9:33pm
If there is something that I learned in this business is that " where there is smoke there is fire"

I'm keeping my eyes on the BRICS development and there is a lot of smoke coming out of it

So far, well, there is just smoke but I believe we will see some fire soon.

They are talking about trading in their own currencies for a while.

Now according to this article from ZH we can see a big step on the direction of a dollar free trade.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...-central-banks

A BRICS bank ( IMF/BIS like institution?) thats interesting!

Military, economically and culturally America still has the upper hand and I doubt they will let it go easily.

My bet is that the dollar will not disappear but morph in to something else.

Some people thing gold will come back.

I don't think so.

I believe the IMF's SDR will work beautifully to give a new face for the same system.

That will fool the masses without posing a problem to the ones in power.

If you keep your eyes open as a trader.

who knows?

We may have the opportunities of our lives!
Don't call me. I call you!
  • #139
  • Jul 15, 2014 10:48pm Jul 15, 2014 10:48pm
Quoting MarginCalled
If there is something that I learned in this business is that " where there is smoke there is fire" I'm keeping my eyes on the BRICS development and there is a lot of smoke coming out of it So far, well, there is just smoke but I believe we will see some fire soon. They are talking about trading in their own currencies for a while. Now according to this article from ZH we can see a big step on the direction of a dollar free trade. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...-central-banks...
You missed the point. By what zerohedge is saying it will kill the sdr not promote it.
So, you think you have rights? LOL
  • #140
  • Jul 15, 2014 11:12pm Jul 15, 2014 11:12pm
Quoting ForexOracle
{quote} You missed the point. By what zerohedge is saying it will kill the sdr not promote it.
Thanks for posting my friend, but I believe ZH is wrong.

The world will globalize in blocks.

Once the blocks are established you have few people to corrupt in order get your way.

SDR implementation easier IMHO.

But I'm more interested on the short term.

How this " bank" will affect the forex markets.

Any thoughts?
Don't call me. I call you!
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