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take the opposite trade solution

  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 11, 2014 5:03am Jul 11, 2014 5:03am
I opened a demo account.

I soon discovered I have a special talent for losing money as I went from 20k to 10k in a couple of weeks.

So I think the answer is quite simple and all I have to do is take the opposite position to the one I believe I should take.

Plan my entry, set up the sl and tp - but before I actually execute the order, simply sell instead of buy and swap the sl with the tp level and i should do exceptionally well.

Of course, tricking my subconscious brain into not switching what I think I want to do might be a problem (dose that make sense?).

So, to train my brain not to do what it thinks it should do I might open 2 fresh demo accounts and trade the way I think I should trade on one account and do the exact opposite on another account and analyze the results periodically.

The only way I see both of these accounts going negative is by over trading and losing on all those ~10-15pip spreads
  • #2
  • Jul 11, 2014 5:32am Jul 11, 2014 5:32am
BabaYaga, you have a long way to go. But to admit that you are consistently losing is a very good start. Try another thing - trade the exact same way, just with the smallest position on a large demo, but never put a stop to any of the positions. Put only a tp and leave them. You may be surprised after some time And there will be more questions after that..
  • #3
  • Jul 11, 2014 5:35am Jul 11, 2014 5:35am
Here we go again!

You should read the forum. You will find at least 1 thread like yours opened each month since the last 10 years or so ...

There's no way to make a losing strategy into a winning one by reversing the entry. You should instead concentrate on trading ...
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #4
  • Edited 6:04am Jul 11, 2014 5:47am | Edited 6:04am
Quoting FerruFx
Here we go again! You should read the forum. You will find at least 1 thread like yours opened each month since the last 10 years or so ... There's no way to make a losing strategy into a winning one by reversing the entry. You should instead concentrate on trading ...
what if one has 9% winning rate system on 1:1 RR?
  • #5
  • Jul 11, 2014 5:48am Jul 11, 2014 5:48am
Quoting FerruFx
Here we go again! You should read the forum. You will find at least 1 thread like yours opened each month since the last 10 years or so ... .
rofl... fk it, just do it.. Yes trading the opposite is the holy grail,

great thread, great idea

subscribed, vouched... sticky this thing
like totally failure brah
  • #6
  • Jul 11, 2014 1:46pm Jul 11, 2014 1:46pm
As others have suggested, do review the threads in the forum - there was another thread on the same topic with the idea of swapping positions. We may as well all stand up and do a tango in the reverse..
  • #7
  • Jul 11, 2014 9:44pm Jul 11, 2014 9:44pm
The issue is never going to be with your entries and exits that you've planned prior to a trade, it's just that you're not yet a good trader. Work on yourself as a trader, keep logs, journals and review your trades, stick to a few setups and keep at it. That's whats important right now. Quality practice is key.
  • #8
  • Jul 12, 2014 1:19am Jul 12, 2014 1:19am
Quoting BubaYaga
The only way I see both of these accounts going negative is by over trading and losing on all those ~10-15pip spreads
A spread of 1-2 pips is enough to defeat the vast majority of aspiring retail traders, if they trade often enough. Approximately half of those folk are buying, and half are selling, at any given point in time, and yet they all eventually lose. Figure out why that is so, and you'll have reached the next step on your trading journey.
  • #9
  • Jul 12, 2014 9:22am Jul 12, 2014 9:22am
Quoting hanover
{quote} A spread of 1-2 pips is enough to defeat the vast majority of aspiring retail traders, if they trade often enough. Approximately half of those folk are buying, and half are selling, at any given point in time, and yet they all eventually lose. Figure out why that is so, and you'll have reached the next step on your trading journey.

This is the key point. Because many are scalpers it just makes the situation that much harder.

If you make 100 pips profit and pay 2 pip spread it is effectively a 2% cost. Whereas if you are in and out for 10 pips at a time paying 2 pips this works out at a 20% cost. You have to be right 1 in 5 times just to cover the cost of the spread.
  • #10
  • Edited 11:45pm Jul 12, 2014 11:09pm | Edited 11:45pm
BubaYaga, your idea of "trading opposite of yourself because you have "talent in losing" is not going to work out as you planned.


Did you know that there are million of losers in forex?

Everyone who lost have asked this question... if you lose 95% of the time... if you trade opposite side you SHOULD win 95% of the time.
But you need to ask if that were true HOW COME there still million of loser?

This is one of the "myth" that the million loser can not understand.
Even if spread is 2 spread or 4 spread. The loser alway lose way more pip so spread is NOT the cause for lost...


I'll give you a hint, you have ZERO believe in yourself because you lack experience/chart time.
You do NOT believe you can win.
You DO Believe you will lose.

So when you "trade opposite of yourself" and you "are wining 10 pip". Do you BELIEVE you can win?

Think about it very hard............ this are the kind of thinking that will make or break you...

If you can't solve this you ain't going to beat the market.


I have an indicator that keep track of all my loss and win and profit.
Yes this is a live account.
You should print this out and put on your wall.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UsdChf - Status 7-12-2014.png Size: 89 KB


If I can can profit $231.13 live money with an huge -1492 pip loss....

What do you THINK happen when I get POSITIVE pip win...?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AudUsd - Status 7-12-2014.png Size: 78 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EurUsd - Status 7-12-2014.png Size: 123 KB



-----------------

Good Luck.
  • #11
  • Jul 12, 2014 11:59pm Jul 12, 2014 11:59pm
Quoting BirminghamUK
{quote} This is the key point. Because many are scalpers it just makes the situation that much harder. If you make 100 pips profit and pay 2 pip spread it is effectively a 2% cost. Whereas if you are in and out for 10 pips at a time paying 2 pips this works out at a 20% cost. You have to be right 1 in 5 times just to cover the cost of the spread.
Absolutely correct.

Quoting victor_ray
Even if spread is 2 spread or 4 spread. The loser alway lose way more pip so spread is NOT the cause for lost... I'll give you a hint, you have ZERO believe in yourself because you lack experience/chart time. You do NOT believe you can win. You DO Believe you will lose.
An EA has neither negative self-belief nor positive self-belief. It simply trades a strategy with perfect discipline and consistency. Virtually every EA that is shared publicly loses money. Reverse both the entry and exit signals like the OP suggested, and the EA will still lose money. Hence I must disagree with you. Lack of self-belief is not the primary cause of trading losses.
  • #12
  • Edited 1:24am Jul 13, 2014 12:17am | Edited 1:24am
Yes, most EA on the web are really bad.

Like many people I did tried to reverse EA signal.

However I back test a 10 year sample on many EA both reverse and non reverse signal. Both result is "not desirable".

When you choose the "non reverse signal" option: the balance blow...

But when you choose the "reverse signal" option: the balance does not "blow as fast" because there are win that prevent it from losing fast..
Also sometime, it do win but it's so horrible like 10% profit for 10 year = trash to me.

However, I do know that because "human is not an EA", many people will not have the belief/strong will to STICK to the system the moment they see 20 loosing streak (randomly). Many would lose all hope and abandon the plan and therefore take loss.


There is one theory that I know but haven't been able to prove that is:

IF you keep sticking to ANY "fixed rule system" till the end of time.. No matter how unlucky you were as long as "your balance is not blown.." your balance SHOULD return back to the "initial Deposit".

Likewise the reverse is true too. IF you stick to any "fix rule system" till the end of time. No matter how LUCKY you were ... eventually your balance SHOULD return back to the "initial deposit".

Long story short, Forex "fix rule" system is like a "sine wave" .... The only way to "break the sign wave" is to NOT play the fixed rule system forever.."
  • #13
  • Jul 13, 2014 9:50am Jul 13, 2014 9:50am
Quoting victor_ray
I have an indicator that keep track of all my loss and win and profit. .
//-----

hey victor_ray....... that indicator looks vaguely familiar.......

there is even a version that takes every trade and matches them individually against several dozen indicators..... and grades your trades..... it reveals bad habits as buying at the top or selling at the bottom..... or closing winners to quickly....

and given enough trades, if it can see a pattern in those trades, it can approximate the time till your next trade and it's direction......
//-----

i probably average 1 new ea and 1 new indicator every day..... 7 a week..... during hunting season, that number doubles.....

in my experience, the best ea's are ones where you can reverse the trades and yet still be profitable.... that is seldom possible.....
//------

far more often, if you reverse the trades under certain conditions it is possible to improve the results..... but actually that is more like filtering than purely reversing the trades......

as a real life live example that has nothing to do with me, look at webjeffs explorer....... it is probably the longest running public explorer....... it should be obvious what he is doing...... he was once up over 300%....

there was a point where, if he reversed his trades, he would have done better..... or at least lost less..... but to my knowledge, by checking his trades, he has never once wavered from his ea/system..... here is an example of an ea in the simplest form, that has more than doubled his money....... the simplest form.....

so what's our excuse.......h

//-------
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzddaily.png Size: 50 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #14
  • Jul 13, 2014 10:50am Jul 13, 2014 10:50am
Hi hayseed,

Thanks for the info on the other version of the profit/loss indicator. I think I will just stick to simplicity of this old version.


Fear is the excuse.

EA do not fear, but the human controlling it can stop the EA from running.
  • #15
  • Jul 14, 2014 6:06am Jul 14, 2014 6:06am
Quoting victor_ray
Yes, most EA on the web are really bad. Like many people I did tried to reverse EA signal. However I back test a 10 year sample on many EA both reverse and non reverse signal. Both result is "not desirable". When you choose the "non reverse signal" option: the balance blow... But when you choose..... The only way to "break the sign wave" is to NOT play the fixed rule system forever.."
Why the heck do people still keep purchasing EAs..I know that newbies do in the hopes of getting rich overnight or whatever but traders who have been trading for three or four years?? You would think that they would know better..Just doesn't make sense..unless of course the spam mail I got and the reviews listed were all fake which given the product in question, they are..sheesh
  • #16
  • Jul 15, 2014 7:22am Jul 15, 2014 7:22am
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} what if one has 9% winning rate system on 1:1 RR?
ha.

I should explain this poor system I was implementing.

eg. Open a micro buy and a micro sell on EURUSD
- put a stop loss at 34 pips & a take profit at 144 pips on both these orders.
Broker has spread between 17 and 21 pips.. let's say 19

When a sl got hit I was down 0.53 and when a tp got hit I was up 1.25
when trade goes bad both sl get hit. - down 1.06
when trade goes good one sl and one tp get hit. - up 0.72

-so that isn't a healthy risk reward ratio right there.. and the win rate was <50%

I think you may have guessed what happened when I swapped the sl to 144 and the tp to 34

When tp got hit I was up 0.15 and when sl got hit I was down 1.63
when trade goes bad one tp and one sl get hit. - down 1.48
when trade goes good both sl get hit. - up 0.30

⇒ and the win rate didn't even improve as much as I'd of though it would.
  • #17
  • Jul 15, 2014 7:55am Jul 15, 2014 7:55am
Quoting BubaYaga
{quote} ha. I should explain this poor system I was implementing. eg. Open a micro buy and a micro sell on EURUSD - put a stop loss at 34 pips & a take profit at 144 pips on both these orders. Broker has spread between 17 and 21 pips.. let's say 19 When a sl got hit I was down 0.53 and when a tp got hit I was up 1.25 when trade goes bad both sl get hit. - down 1.06 when trade goes good one sl and one tp get hit. - up 0.72 -so that isn't a healthy risk reward ratio right there.. and the win rate was <50% I think you may have guessed what happened...
How long did you play this initialy weak strategy?

How many individual trades were collected for statistics?

1:4 versus 4:1 is something else

Think like investor not trader.
______________________________
ITs not that easy as you think...so more digging and exploring please.
  • #18
  • Jul 16, 2014 3:37am Jul 16, 2014 3:37am
With spread playing such a large part in actual R:R.

Adjusted tp to 185 and sl to 35. -Assuming a 20 pip spread, 1 losing trade will equal one winning trade with the above (before swapping) mentioned strategy.

Playing around with it a bit more I found using a volatility action indicator for entry works better than a price action indicator.

I guess it's a straddle. Most people think of straddle as an option delta neutral volatility play.

http://i627.photobucket.com/albums/t...fatso/yaga.png
  • #19
  • Edited 1:26am Jul 20, 2014 1:05am | Edited 1:26am
This is a follow up to my "Theory: IF you stick to any "fix rule system" till the end of time. No matter how LUCKY you were ... eventually your balance SHOULD return back to the "initial deposit" ".

Live link so you can see other detail: http://www.myfxbook.com/members/fxgr...owth-bot/71611


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EA Failure after 3 year of Great result live.png Size: 204 KB




------

So as you can see, you would think a "fix rule that work for 3 years in forex should work forever...."
This EA profit curve show you that even if you "reverse the signal and make you win EARLY in the starting year... AS TIME GO ON you will lose (unless it's the holy grail then you won't lose)...

But of course the main question now "is this a win EA or a Lose EA" ?
You reverse the signal you "LOSE early game and blow your account soon",
You Do NOT reverse signal you "WIN early game and lose/blow your account "some day".....
You also do not know WHEN should you or should NOT reverse signal (because the market is random) so that way you keep wining forever....

There is another theory that's relate to this but you if can answer the the "question" above with full understand why you come to the conclusion, then it will lead you to the next theory . And If you solve the "next theory" you will have and edge.

After you have an edge, you can apply "medium risk mm" you will be rich.

  • #20
  • Jul 20, 2014 2:45am Jul 20, 2014 2:45am
Victor Ray,

I guess you could treat the growth/balance chart in the same way as most technical analysts might treat a price action chart.

-Follow the EA and let it do it's thing while the trend of the growth/balance chart is in an up trend.
When the growth/balance chart starts to trend downward - reverse the EA..

Simplest way to do that would be by placing a couple of MAs on the growth/balance chart and reverse EA signals once a bearish cross occurs on the MAs.

May not be possible to simply add MAs to that "myfxbook" growth chart, but you could always do it by hand.
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