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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #4,481
  • Jul 9, 2014 1:30am Jul 9, 2014 1:30am
Quoting Dimi
Alfonso, thanks for that clarification on the webinar. It appears to be at the demand zone that caused it to shoot up to new highs...(at least its what i see as i don't have much previous history to look back at). i still am not sure though how to handle levels that are on top of each other such as the two on the daily and three on H4, as reading the rules does very little for me because i am more of a visual learner so im in the process of watching all the videos on your youtube channel. {image} {image} {image}

Good morning to everyone!
Hi Dimi, i want to try to reply at your question with a chart. I hope the chart and questions in it can help you

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  • #4,482
  • Jul 9, 2014 1:38am Jul 9, 2014 1:38am
Quoting thegatan
{quote} hi panoramia, could i request your SD_EA? thank you
The EA I've developped is for personal use only, it won't be sold, rented or shared sorry! Hope you understand that!

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,483
  • Jul 9, 2014 2:45am Jul 9, 2014 2:45am
Quoting crixus
Guys, Interesting approach. I'd like to watch or study some of the US futures contracts like the ES (S&P 500), NQ (Nasdaq), YM (Dow) and possibly the russell (TF) as well as the Crude oil future contract. However, i am not sure what broker(s) offer these instruments for MT4. Thanks.
There are a few MT4 brokers that offer indexes and commodities, IC Markets, Fx Pro, HotForex, etc.. Youo have the EA, NQ, Dow, crude oil, Russell and many others, in the shape of CFDs. There is no MT4 broker that offers future contracts like Tradestation, Ninja or anything, at least as far as I know.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,484
  • Jul 9, 2014 2:48am Jul 9, 2014 2:48am
Quoting Dimi
Alfonso, thanks for that clarification on the webinar. It appears to be at the demand zone that caused it to shoot up to new highs...(at least its what i see as i don't have much previous history to look back at). i still am not sure though how to handle levels that are on top of each other such as the two on the daily and three on H4, as reading the rules does very little for me because i am more of a visual learner so im in the process of watching all the videos on your youtube channel. {image} {image} {image}
I am not trading USOIL, don't have much data on that one but I guess it can be obtained from other brokers and imported in MT4, I've done that with a lot of instruments and indexes. As far as I can see on your charts, weekly is UP and it might produce some bouncing from that demand zone. There are D1 imbalances within that WK zone but in the shape of level on top of level, I'd definitely wait for confirmation to go long down there when there is level on top of level.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,485
  • Jul 9, 2014 3:53pm Jul 9, 2014 3:53pm
Thanks for pointing various MT4 brokers.

However, i'd like to hear your opinion about one aspect of your methodology. In particular, i am concerned by your average stop loss (SL)? I am asking this as given the size of the areas (supply/demand zones) that your draw, your average SL seems big even though your profit target is a multiple of it.

Given this, why not trade on a lower time frame horizon but with a normal contract size? I know that you can use micro lots on the spot Forex but on Futures market ( ES, NQ, CL etc.) it is not possible.

As i am not as rich as Croesus even though my nickname is crixus, i was wondering what would you suggest me to do in order to use your strategies on these instruments so that my SL be within my risk tolerance zone?

P.S. I prefer to trade on a central but regulated exchange like the CME. I do not trust Forex brokers even less their datafeeds.

I appreciate your opinion and your willingness to share.

Thanks
  • #4,486
  • Edited 5:43am Jul 10, 2014 5:24am | Edited 5:43am
Quoting crixus
Thanks for pointing various MT4 brokers. However, i'd like to hear your opinion about one aspect of your methodology. In particular, i am concerned by your average stop loss (SL)? I am asking this as given the size of the areas (supply/demand zones) that your draw, your average SL seems big even though your profit target is a multiple of it. Given this, why not trade on a lower time frame horizon but with a normal contract size? I know that you can use micro lots on the spot Forex but on Futures market ( ES, NQ, CL etc.) it is not possible. As i...
Thanks for your questions. As far as the SL and the zones is concerned, I trade what I see and I calculate my exits as multiples of the zones that I draw. Can lower timeframes be traded? Of course they can, but I don't. Why? The lower the timeframe the fewer the pairs I can trade and the more the time I have to spend in front of the computer analyzing the markets, because there will be many new levels every day in the lower timeframes. It's my decision then to take levels on H4 and D1 charts only and enjoy a lot of free time, travel and do fulfill my passions, it's my way of trading, a way of life, but each trader must learn about their goals and passions, I know mine very well.

If the level is too wide but valid and your risk tolerance is lower because of your broker or futures trading, you have to calculate the maximum width you can trade at any given instrument in order to risk the % you want to risk on any trade. In my case I risk only 1% and my contract size is based on that %, pip value of the instrument and width of the level, nothing else. The lots are adjusted dynamically, but I always need my profit margin not an opposing zone in my way, else it would be a very aggressive trading.

Data feeds in forex are not trust worthy, but it just works, so I have nothing to complain about, I add wiggle room to my SL, if the trade doesn't work, I will plan the next one, so I don't care what the brokers do, I just have my rules. Governments can't and shouldn't be trusted, but every single time there are elections, citizens will vote one party or another, when in fact they should be doing a very different thing, crazy isn't it?

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,487
  • Jul 10, 2014 6:36am Jul 10, 2014 6:36am
Following what we covered today on the live webinar for all free webinar's subscribers (being uploaded), I just looked at my D1 charts and it looks like I was triggered in some trades. One of them is USDHUF D1 demand.

  1. D1 TL intact, D1 and WK up, lots of room to to opposing D1 supply at MN supply proximal line
  2. Will be a bit aggressive with SL because there is that flip zone and last month high above which we could not close above

It follows all the rules as explained in the webinar and those laid out in first post. If you have any questions, don't hesitate to ask them

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,488
  • Edited 8:11am Jul 10, 2014 7:56am | Edited 8:11am
Hello fellow traders!

Today's live webinar covered position trading and analysis on the pairs requested by the attendees.

Many of the rules were covered and some running live trades were analyzed one by one.

I believe this is also a great webinar, many issues and rules were covered.

  1. Position trading analysis can be very fast as you will see on the video, you just need to have the experience (thousands of hours of analysis) and know the rules and nuances by heart. That can only happen if you practice a lot and practice is on your daily routine trading every the same way eating is
  2. We went through a few pairs in the live analysis: Russell 2000 index (US2000), AUDUSD, GBPAUD, EURAUD, AUDCHF and CADJPY
  3. We had a peak at the www.set-and-forget.com community where other members also post trades like AUDCHF H4 short, it's not just me. They are posted before they happen
  4. We talked about counter-trend and focus on one single direction in your daily trading. Thinking going long and short at the same time is not a good strategy, it will create a lot of indecision and you probably be taken too many losses
  5. We covered realignment rules and when to trade on a trendline break
  6. Decide on one direction and find the best entries trading in the direction of the bigger timeframes. Wait for D1 direction and removed of opposing zones before you even think of going counter-trend
  7. Don't look at the charts in hindsight and kick your head on the wall because you missed a trade, moreover if that trade was not valid, counter-trend and you tweaked one of the rules...there will be many others
  8. Don't break or tweak the uless until you are being consistently profitable trading the same plan for months
  9. Don't add more than 1 nuance/change to the rule (based on months of experience) at the same time or you will not know which rule/change is making your trading improve or go worst

Today's webinar can be seen here (it's 1h 45 min long):


Inserted Video


Have a great day!
Cheers,
Alfonso
www.set-and-forget.com
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,489
  • Jul 10, 2014 5:47pm Jul 10, 2014 5:47pm
Thanks for the great webinar alfonso, looking forward to the next one!
  • #4,490
  • Jul 11, 2014 12:51am Jul 11, 2014 12:51am
the webinar has been amazing!!
For me was the first live interaction and it has been instructive, inspiring, and psychologically it was like being part of a great community work.
To me that I follow you from the south of Italy, interact with other people just for the fact that they spoke and wrote in English, made ​​me feel a little less isolated.
From today i believe even more in my goals and i want to work very hard to keep it!
Finally thanks a lot to Alfonso for your patience and capacity of explanation!!
  • #4,491
  • Jul 11, 2014 2:00am Jul 11, 2014 2:00am
I want to discuss with all of you about the situation of aud\cad because i think it is a good exercise on the all of issue of this method...
This is my analisys


The monthly was in consolidation because the up movement don't broke any zone of supply, the extreme of the consolidation, supply and demand in controll are the zone between 1.0716 - 1.0529 supply, and 0.9189 - 0.9370.
Inside consolidation we can draw a trendline up because we have two valleys. Searching for confluences i've observed that we are at 38% of Fibonacci retracement from the last movement up.

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On the weekly we are in an uptrend

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In a daily we are in a downtrend

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We must find the weekly daily combo demand to search a vantage point to go long with 1.0520 as objective.


What do you think about my thought???
  • #4,492
  • Jul 11, 2014 4:54am Jul 11, 2014 4:54am
Hello everyone, I hope all is doing good
I want to ask does anyone here have indicator that will sound alert when price reach rectangle?
I know the S/D indicator that is shared have the alert function, I also know that we can right click on chart to set up manual price alert
But what I mean is alert when price reach our manual rectangle, thought that it will be very convenient, I have been searching the net but didn't found it
Appreciate the help thanks
In the end its just a stupid numbers game
  • #4,493
  • Jul 11, 2014 5:16am Jul 11, 2014 5:16am
Quoting danzka
Hello everyone, I hope all is doing good I want to ask does anyone here have indicator that will sound alert when price reach rectangle? I know the S/D indicator that is shared have the alert function, I also know that we can right click on chart to set up manual price alert But what I mean is alert when price reach our manual rectangle, thought that it will be very convenient, I have been searching the net but didn't found it Appreciate the help thanks
The actual rectangle reader indicator has no alert function for now, I don't need it so that's why I didn't developped it. I don't want to know when a rectangle has been hit, why? Because if the rectangle was a valid SD zone, I want to be on that trade, I don't want to be alerted "hey Alfonso, you are on EURUSD H4 demand zone, your rectangle was hit". I don't want to know if I was triggered on a trade, I want to be on that trade and forget about it, it's the whole thing behind Set and Forget. This is what the alert was not developped, I created and indicator that goes with my type of trading, not with other's. This indicator can help many, but I just added the functions that I need for my own trading.

Hope that it makes sense!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,494
  • Jul 11, 2014 5:17am Jul 11, 2014 5:17am
Quoting alegargano
the webinar has been amazing!! For me was the first live interaction and it has been instructive, inspiring, and psychologically it was like being part of a great community work. To me that I follow you from the south of Italy, interact with other people just for the fact that they spoke and wrote in English, made ​​me feel a little less isolated. From today i believe even more in my goals and i want to work very hard to keep it! Finally thanks a lot to Alfonso for your patience and capacity of explanation!!
Glad that you liked the webinar my friend, thanks for your words! It's in fact a community what we're trying to create, everybody trading the same tested rules and seeing the same levels so that we all can help each other!

See you in the next one!
Have a great weekend!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,495
  • Jul 11, 2014 5:21am Jul 11, 2014 5:21am
Quoting alegargano
I want to discuss with all of you about the situation of aud\cad because i think it is a good exercise on the all of issue of this method... This is my analisys The monthly was in consolidation because the up movement don't broke any zone of supply, the extreme of the consolidation, supply and demand in controll are the zone between 1.0716 - 1.0529 supply, and 0.9189 - 0.9370. Inside consolidation we can draw a trendline up because we have two valleys. Searching for confluences i've observed that we are at 38% of Fibonacci retracement from the last...
One thing about your Weekly chart my friend... Wk is down, descending trendline linking 2 peaks. Previous ascending WK TL was up but broken.

Cheers,
Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,496
  • Jul 11, 2014 6:51am Jul 11, 2014 6:51am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} The actual rectangle reader indicator has no alert function for now, I don't need it so that's why I didn't developped it. I don't want to know when a rectangle has been hit, why? Because if the rectangle was a valid SD zone, I want to be on that trade, I don't want to be alerted "hey Alfonso, you are on EURUSD H4 demand zone, your rectangle was hit". I don't want to know if I was triggered on a trade, I want to be on that trade and forget about it, it's the whole thing behind Set and Forget. This is what the alert was not developped, I...
Thanks for the reply, yes it makes sense,
as for me I like to observe PA when it hits the S/D zone, so I use the MT4 alert function a lot

Regards, Daniel
In the end its just a stupid numbers game
  • #4,497
  • Jul 11, 2014 9:46am Jul 11, 2014 9:46am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} One thing about your Weekly chart my friend... Wk is down, descending trendline linking 2 peaks. Previous ascending WK TL was up but broken. Cheers, Alfonso {image}

Yes Alfonso thanks a lot!
Is the same situation of usd\cad and at the moment I'm writing you the usd\cad give me 55 pips and di eur\cad give me 2:1 r\r.
I'll be careful at the daily, weekly zone of supply if they give us some bearish signal
  • #4,498
  • Jul 13, 2014 12:33am Jul 13, 2014 12:33am
Hi Alfonso / Greg:

Great trade on the USDCAD long! Congrats!

One question I have is: How do you handle important news? On Friday we had the CAD Employment numbers and this news is as volatile as FOMC, ECB or US Jobs numbers.

Do you open position before big news events like this? Had price gone against you, does slippage become an issue?

Thank you,
  • #4,499
  • Jul 13, 2014 1:08am Jul 13, 2014 1:08am
Quoting courier12
Hi Alfonso / Greg: Great trade on the USDCAD long! Congrats! One question I have is: How do you handle important news? On Friday we had the CAD Employment numbers and this news is as volatile as FOMC, ECB or US Jobs numbers. Do you open position before big news events like this? Had price gone against you, does slippage become an issue? Thank you,
Thanks Courier, but I am not smiling yet. I am pleased with the outcome so far as my analysis led me to be ready for this trade, but price needs to break through some previous resistance levels and a downwards monthly sloping trend line before I will become satisfied.

I handle news by using a Stop Loss.

  1. I have noticed over the few years I have been trading that news events sometimes cause a dramatic reaction in the market and sometimes they don't, depending on whether there is contradictory news for the opposing currency that is paired with the one I am trading.
  2. I have learned that it is risky to try and predict the reaction, so I always protect my trade and am now prepared to accept any loss without emotion if it goes against me all the way to my stop loss order.
  3. I let the market open my trade based on the price I have set as a limit order at the proximal edge of the Daily or H4 zone I have plotted on my charts.

I do not bother about slippage.

  1. I accept whatever the amount ends up being applied to my trade/s.
  2. I plan to trade with my final target usually being aligned to the opposing monthly or weekly zone so the reward is typically huge compared to potential slippage amounts
  3. For this USDCAD trade, I was triggered into the trade on July 1st at the price I requested, so the news on Friday was not a factor in any slippage applied to my trade

Cheers

Greg

  • #4,500
  • Jul 13, 2014 10:16am Jul 13, 2014 10:16am
USD/DKK

MN: Down, broken TL after hitting MN demand, engulfed.
WK: New wow level and CP created after the TL break
D1: Waited for confirmation of messy D1 level at wk cp proximal. TL broken, created 2:1, wow trade. D1 long.

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