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Time analysis - "the other half of the picture"

  • #81
  • Jul 19, 2006 11:03pm Jul 19, 2006 11:03pm
Quoting Akuma99
dof, thanks for the honest opinion and the ammicable approach to telling me that you think I am wrong , the only true measure is whether I make money from it or not, proof in the pudding so to speak (damn now I am hungry ... where is that custard). It is interesting discussion if nothing else
About making money, I friend sent me this joke, it might be funny

A stock analyst and a Wall Street broker went to the races. The broker suggested to bet $10,000 on a horse. The analyst was sceptical, saying that he wanted first to understand the rules, to look on horses, etc. The broker whispered that he knew a secret algorithm for the success, but he could not convince the analyst. "You are too theoretical," he said and bet on a horse. Surely, that horse came first bringing him a lot of money. Triumphantly, he exclaimed: "I told you, I knew the secret!" "What is your secret?" the analyst asked. "It is rather easy. I have two kids, three and five year old. I sum up their ages and I bet on number nine." "But, three and five is eight," the analyst protested. "I told you, you are too theoretical!" the broker replied,"Haven't I just shown experimentally that my calculation is correct?!"
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #82
  • Jul 19, 2006 11:18pm Jul 19, 2006 11:18pm
Not a problem dof, you aren't, weren't arrogant, so we will agree to disagree that time can't be used as a trading system Best of luck with your trading!
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #83
  • Jul 19, 2006 11:20pm Jul 19, 2006 11:20pm
Quoting Akuma99
Not a problem dof, you aren't, weren't arrogant, so we will agree to disagree that time can't be used as a trading system Best of luck with your trading!
Same to you!

If it makes money it correct, no matter how incorect it might look.
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #84
  • Jul 20, 2006 12:10am Jul 20, 2006 12:10am
Very true ... well said, now I go short EUR till the 25th.
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #85
  • Jul 20, 2006 2:04am Jul 20, 2006 2:04am
Akuma
Are you assuming that price always (or most of the time) change direction on new or full moon days
Johann Channels and cycles are everything
  • #86
  • Jul 20, 2006 4:26am Jul 20, 2006 4:26am
While there is some nice evidence for the past 3 years that it does happen, at least on a New Moon (have posted those charts previously), that is not the method I am developing.

I see on logging on the EUR has continued up, the method I am working indicated a reversal today, will it reverse back down?, or did that reversal come a day early, i.e. yesterday ... obviously it is still in its infancy so much work to be done.
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #87
  • Jul 20, 2006 4:56am Jul 20, 2006 4:56am
Thanks for the answer. I want to share a pic with you. I put some additional lines. It correspond to moonīs first quarter and last quarter (I donīt know if this are the right words but that is what Googleīs translation tool is giving to me) This are the intermediate phases between full and new moon. I found it interesting. Comment please.

http://img132.imageshack.us/img132/6...5528wr0.th.jpg
Johann Channels and cycles are everything
  • #88
  • Jul 20, 2006 5:57am Jul 20, 2006 5:57am
I assume you mean the dotted lines, it is interesting, some nic mid-move reversals there, of course there will be some who say, "well if you put enough lines on a chart you are bound to get lucky", and yes that is true, but to ignore the effects on the moon on human behaviour, forgetting the markets from a moment, is to ignore documented facts and statistics on the effect phases have on things like hospital admissions for example, behaviour in schools etc.... it is really quite interesting.
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #89
  • Jul 20, 2006 6:15am Jul 20, 2006 6:15am
Quoting Akuma99
I assume you mean the dotted lines, it is interesting, some nic mid-move reversals there, of course there will be some who say, "well if you put enough lines on a chart you are bound to get lucky", and yes that is true, but to ignore the effects on the moon on human behaviour, forgetting the markets from a moment, is to ignore documented facts and statistics on the effect phases have on things like hospital admissions for example, behaviour in schools etc.... it is really quite interesting.
If it's full moon in australia will affect the people in USA?
I'm just saying it can be full moon in one place and sunshine in another.
It's a global market.
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #90
  • Jul 20, 2006 7:10am Jul 20, 2006 7:10am
Very true, I personally do my analysis based on the London perspective, as that is when most of the liquidity starts anyhow, it is a global market, but a full moon is a full moon wherever you, just different times of day.
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #91
  • Jul 20, 2006 7:18am Jul 20, 2006 7:18am
Dof
This is how i see this topic. I donīt know if the moon has a strange force to rule the forex market. Repeat I donīt know. What I know: Gann theory works (Murray math lines), pivot lines work, fibonacci retracement and extension works but why they work, because the market believe they work. It is all psychological. The traderīs mind believe they work. Except for news like planes crashing the twin towers that surprise the market what i strong believe is the market is not ramdom and one of the things iīm studying is time. This is not esoteric. Gann was the first who related price and time (I guess). Big boys rule the market. They choose their turning points but the way they do is the question. The chart I posted is interesting. I donīt have time and tools to make a really good analysis. I think i need at least 10years of data and good software to find if what i see is just random or fact. But ītil now i work with the basic tools I have and believe it or not Iīve made some pips with the info this chart is giving to me (obviously added to the system iīm working)
Johann Channels and cycles are everything
  • #92
  • Jul 20, 2006 12:08pm Jul 20, 2006 12:08pm
Quoting dof
If it's full moon in australia will affect the people in USA?
I'm just saying it can be full moon in one place and sunshine in another.
It's a global market.

This reminded me of a blond joke. Two blonds were sitting on a park bench on a summer evening in Des Moines, Iowa. One looked up at the full moon and said, " Which do you think is closer, the moon or Austrailia?". The other said " duh!!! ... can you see Austrailia? ".


As was stated, market decisions are made by people. Various natural events effect people. Even the market reaction to news events occur because of the way people filter the news. Take for example, the recent financial news over the past trading days that did not react 'as usual' due to the fighting in the middle east. People filtered the financial news out in favor of the world news. There is no question that people are effected by the moon. There is no need to do research about that. It is not a guess or hypothesis. It is a fact. An age old fact.... hence the word lunatic.

Knowing this and trading history, there might be something to look at here.

Lou na tic
  • #93
  • Jul 20, 2006 11:39pm Jul 20, 2006 11:39pm
That's the right point,dof.
  • #94
  • Jul 20, 2006 11:55pm Jul 20, 2006 11:55pm
I dont know if this is the correct place for posting this, but i has time implications

I was trying to find the true timeframe to trade in. And i thought wouldnt that be the one that bar moved closest to the ends? if price moved all the way through a bar in a time frame wouldnt it mean that is the scale the price is attached too?

so if you took historical data and did abs(open-close) / (high-low) you could get the percentance of the movement in each bar. Then you could figure out which one has more "throughput" and trade that timeframe as the rest are fragments of it.

I hope some of that made sense hehe. I would say Daily bars would be the best choice as i believe that the market is based on what "most" people do. Like fibies work because people use fibbies, if everyone stopped using them the would quit working.
  • #95
  • Jul 21, 2006 8:14am Jul 21, 2006 8:14am
Quoting witchazel
I dont know if this is the correct place for posting this, but i has time implications

I was trying to find the true timeframe to trade in. And i thought wouldnt that be the one that bar moved closest to the ends? if price moved all the way through a bar in a time frame wouldnt it mean that is the scale the price is attached too?

so if you took historical data and did abs(open-close) / (high-low) you could get the percentance of the movement in each bar. Then you could figure out which one has more "throughput" and trade that timeframe as the rest are fragments of it.

I hope some of that made sense hehe. I would say Daily bars would be the best choice as i believe that the market is based on what "most" people do. Like fibies work because people use fibbies, if everyone stopped using them the would quit working.
There are different representation of candlesticks, different calculation. Search for heiken - ashi.
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #96
  • Jul 23, 2006 7:57pm Jul 23, 2006 7:57pm
Quoting Akuma99
Very true ... well said, now I go short EUR till the 25th.

I hope your short was enough to get you into profit tonight. Now the problem of what happens next.

When a correct call which is based on Delta and the moon is made, for profit do we say " we mooned 'em"

Lou
  • #97
  • Jul 23, 2006 10:03pm Jul 23, 2006 10:03pm
Hey Lou, I faded into the short from Friday, the move early Asia has provided enough to lock in some profit, but in truth, I got my timing right, but my direction wrong for the original move. I will be holding for tomorrow's New Moon.

Oh and I think you are right, mooning them is exactly what we are doing

P.S. Check out the classifieds section for a forum I have started you might be interested in
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #98
  • Jul 24, 2006 6:47am Jul 24, 2006 6:47am
Well tomorrow is the New Moon, and coupled with some interesting aspects with the Moon's node and Mercury, it makes me wonder if we are in for a nice reversal in the EUR. Like I said, a work in progress, but I will be looking for Asia tomorrow to start the reversal to perhaps test 1.2400 in the next week.

Ok enough reckless predictions that wil most likely not come true
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #99
  • Jul 26, 2006 1:04am Jul 26, 2006 1:04am
Hey Akuma pips are with you................... And with the Moon.

Quoting Akuma99
Well tomorrow is the New Moon, and coupled with some interesting aspects with the Moon's node and Mercury, it makes me wonder if we are in for a nice reversal in the EUR. Like I said, a work in progress, but I will be looking for Asia tomorrow to start the reversal to perhaps test 1.2400 in the next week.

Ok enough reckless predictions that wil most likely not come true
Johann Channels and cycles are everything
  • #100
  • Jul 26, 2006 3:22am Jul 26, 2006 3:22am
.. this time we were right ... as for next time .. well ... Lou, I think we can say it now ... "we mooned 'em"
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
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