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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #48,361
  • Jul 9, 2014 10:13am Jul 9, 2014 10:13am
Quoting fti
{quote} oh thats because on top of about 15% historical price volatility builtin on the premium pricing models, one will have to pay additional for the higher impllied volitility component in the pricing models. so at higher implied , the premiums will be more expensive. mostly the more premiums will be used to hedge unhedge the writes according. regards

hi fti and appleboy, would like to addon to the discussion from another angle

1. options are like insurance, when one has a long position in the underlying and buys a put options, it is insuring against the fall in price
2. when price is in range, volatility is low, there is a higher chance that the options will expire worthless and not be exercised (of course one may just liquidate the almost worthless options before expiry), thus premium will be low because the risk to the writer is low
3. when price is move up/down crazily, voliatiltiy increases and the chances for the option to expire in the money increases, thus writer would not want to sell options unless they are compensated for the risk.
4. also i think that if one incorporate the current market trend, let say is trending up, then the premium for a call should be higher than put because chances are call will expire in the money, but this is just me thinking out loud as i think this is not incorporate into black schole and also i not sure whether a trend or impulse upwards can be considered as volality in terms of black schole. volatility in black schole seems to refer to only the standard deviation of average returns which is kind of different to the ATR type of volaitity we have been talking here.
5. back to topic, so the equivalent of volality to life insurances would be your lifestyle for example. if one always participlate in high risk activities like skydiving, dealing with explosives, naturally insurance premium will be higher than others.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #48,362
  • Jul 9, 2014 11:26am Jul 9, 2014 11:26am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} fti, thanks for showing the intestine. now, i able understand what you meant. understand what you show is just one example. so what you meant is that the downslope neckline can possibly mutate into a wedge which means the shs becomes dead pattern and expired because wedge becomes the now pattern. if breakout of wedge upwards, it would meant continuation, if it broke downwards, then is reversal. for upslope, as you have shown, it is possible to mutate into: 1. down rect flag which indicates reversal of prior upmove and favors a break of neckline...
wah seems you know some stuff hor.
not making thngs up.
but try not explain everything, there is a couple thousand combinations.
few hundred already analyst fainted already.
ok lor. steady as she goes.

regards
  • #48,363
  • Edited 11:52am Jul 9, 2014 11:27am | Edited 11:52am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} hi fti and appleboy, would like to addon to the discussion from another angle 1. options are like insurance, when one has a long position in the underlying and buys a put options, it is insuring against the fall in price 2. when price is in range, volatility is low, there is a higher chance that the options will expire worthless and not be exercised (of course one may just liquidate the almost worthless options before expiry), thus premium will be low because the risk to the writer is low 3. when price is move up/down crazily, voliatiltiy...
what bullshit.
options IS insurance.
you think the acturaial tables there for fun?
these table more chim than those that ..................your money give you back nothing.
these gives you back earnings reads.
insurance is derived from these reads.
markets go 3rd s.d. all you insurance brothers need coconut shell to hide under hor.
how you think they derive insurance pricing?

ai ya have eyes no see tarzan.
dog is not a wolf?
dog is derivative from wolf , my friend.

all monetary instruments are derivatives from treasury products.
even such simple thing can elude so many.


regards
  • #48,364
  • Jul 9, 2014 12:01pm Jul 9, 2014 12:01pm
chief this time 123 set up works.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...08#post7592308
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #48,365
  • Jul 9, 2014 12:05pm Jul 9, 2014 12:05pm
Quoting priceaction1
chief this time 123 set up works. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...08#post7592308
you not dancing, your rigidity will cause you pay one day.

regards
  • #48,366
  • Jul 9, 2014 12:16pm Jul 9, 2014 12:16pm
Quoting fti
{quote} you not dancing, your rigidity will cause you pay one day. regards
thanks chief. this is feed back I need. close loop network. when ever error in system +ve or -ve voltage need to back on line. I pay last night chief when try to get ride into second leg. all profit from short before news relies wash out.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #48,367
  • Jul 9, 2014 12:26pm Jul 9, 2014 12:26pm
short in euro is close as flow is not there and news is in less than 1 hour will re-enter but direction is not clear after news I will deiced which way I go. thank you chief
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #48,368
  • Edited 2:06pm Jul 9, 2014 1:39pm | Edited 2:06pm
Quoting priceaction1
short in euro is close as flow is not there and news is in less than 1 hour will re-enter but direction is not clear after news I will deiced which way I go. thank you chief
my friend.
What i gave, you must becareful when using.
because embeded is the sword of victory.
But i discovered, is only works for those God favours it works.

in my experiences , i had limited choice also trained bastards in high places.
they normally would adulterate what's taught them.
and for their dishonour, they create swords cut their own throats.
This my experiences. 1 even went rogue and went to jail to pay for it.
I cannot judge anyone because i not know everyone.
So the judgement is left to all knowing God.

I only hope what i show , shines light for deserving peeps.
Everyone have their own journeys.
The tools i already gave. The journey is out of my hands, i normally never knows.
even i have short coming, only can pray for God's mercy.

If peeps mis-use the tools because they smart kids lurking to steal( or for whatever reasons) or strays and brings their own demise.
It really has little to do with me. Like i said is not within my capacity to judge anyone.
i already tried show best i can how work it.
whether peeps have sins they need pay for, i can do little to assist.

peeps want do spreadsheets, or summarys or whatever i not care.
just asking peeps not throw shit in my face. only.
For those try show me where the short coming.
That which i can , i try redirect. That which i cannot see or detect, i not really bothered.

regards

you had been kind to many, i believe that you sow , you will be rewarded.
but also becareful your own journey. Try stay under radar.

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  • #48,369
  • Edited 2:28pm Jul 9, 2014 1:50pm | Edited 2:28pm
I must say I need feed back just before news I neutralize all the bias bcz of your feed back chief . after news I see the flow in the cable and get into long @ 1.7120. now well protected
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #48,370
  • Jul 9, 2014 2:19pm Jul 9, 2014 2:19pm
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  • #48,371
  • Jul 9, 2014 2:27pm Jul 9, 2014 2:27pm
Quoting fti
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECfaoePD7_E {image}

FOMC movement chief.. what u think of the volatility?

V
  • #48,372
  • Jul 9, 2014 2:29pm Jul 9, 2014 2:29pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} FOMC movement chief.. what u think of the volatility? V
i sidelined.
but watching.
seems somethings gone very array.

looks like i escape by the shirt tails.
but i trying get the bias out of me yet.
so i gonna sit on my hands for a little time.


regards
  • #48,373
  • Jul 9, 2014 2:34pm Jul 9, 2014 2:34pm
Quoting fti
{quote} i sidelined. but watching. seems somethings gone very array. looks like i escape by the shirt tails. but i trying get the bias out of me yet. so i gonna sit on my hands for a little time. regards

hmm i should have done it too... little in still...think should get out..

V
  • #48,374
  • Jul 9, 2014 2:37pm Jul 9, 2014 2:37pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} hmm i should have done it too... little in still...think should get out.. V

spectators can smoke cigar.
the one in arena decides.
i can take a look at the charts, but is only spectator perspective.
personally i feeling very strong force coming against the usd.
euro seems soft, but cable i cannot tell.is flagging.

most scary is the daily perspective.
is dollar weak across board.
maybe is time they soul search a little.
somethings seems very very broken.



regards
  • #48,375
  • Jul 9, 2014 3:07pm Jul 9, 2014 3:07pm
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As Above, So Below
  • #48,376
  • Jul 9, 2014 3:42pm Jul 9, 2014 3:42pm
Quoting tashkent
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1zGAFYAvH8


regards
  • #48,377
  • Jul 9, 2014 3:44pm Jul 9, 2014 3:44pm
Quoting fti
{quote} spectators can smoke cigar. the one in arena decides. i can take a look at the charts, but is only spectator perspective. personally i feeling very strong force coming against the usd. euro seems soft, but cable i cannot tell.is flagging. most scary is the daily perspective. is dollar weak across board. maybe is time they soul search a little. somethings seems very very broken. regards

yes i agree.... i am just resucing one troop or half troop at time....not feel ia m on right side...

V
  • #48,378
  • Jul 9, 2014 3:57pm Jul 9, 2014 3:57pm
Good Morning Chief,

I was watching this movie over the weekend to see if I can learn anything from this battle.

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Regards,

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  • #48,379
  • Jul 9, 2014 4:55pm Jul 9, 2014 4:55pm
Quoting trad8
Good Morning Chief, I was watching this movie over the weekend to see if I can learn anything from this battle. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVPm-nLRvHI Regards, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBkQGJkgp6Y http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHRktJY-iZ4

nee forgot this one leh.

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regards
  • #48,380
  • Jul 9, 2014 5:01pm Jul 9, 2014 5:01pm
Quoting trad8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBkQGJkgp6Y
wah this ChenDongRong belli tokkong.

regards
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