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Time analysis - "the other half of the picture"

  • #61
  • Jul 15, 2006 1:43am Jul 15, 2006 1:43am

.. and the others


http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/1674/moon3ln7.gif


http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/5078/moon4ya8.gif

You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #62
  • Jul 17, 2006 10:01pm Jul 17, 2006 10:01pm
I wish things were that simple it's supposed to be more than the moon.
  • #63
  • Jul 19, 2006 12:37am Jul 19, 2006 12:37am
I've just about done my head in reading some of Gann's original material, as well as Larry Pesavento's work and many others, I am not so convinced it is "more than the moon", i'll leave it at that for now ... the search continues.
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #64
  • Jul 19, 2006 2:02am Jul 19, 2006 2:02am
Akuma,
I might be wrong, but as I understood you are trying to predict price movement based on time. I think you are starting with the left foot, because in my opinion trading is not about predicting a move, it's about following it. So i don't want to predict a movement, I just wanna follow it.
Times goes even if nothing is happening. So we have to have something going for the price to move: economic/political event or whatever. What I'm trying to say is that every move is happening at a certain moment in time, but it doesn't happen because it was that exact moment, it happens because of something else that was going on at that particular time, independend of time (that means it could have been any other moment in time) like a news, like somebody's death, a war or whatever.
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #65
  • Jul 19, 2006 10:30am Jul 19, 2006 10:30am
"trading is not about predicting a move, it's about following it. So i don't want to predict a movement, I just wanna follow it."

I am assuming that you are along the lines of trading with the trend. That's definitely a valid approach to trading, in a strong trend it can also reap some good profits.

Have you ever wondered: if everybody follows the trend... wouldn't it go on for ever? Why then would it end and reverse so hard on our face? How do we know when a trend is over? with the many indicators out there, they indicate a trend change when the new trend is well underway. Who then are the people who set these new trends? they are definitely not trend followers are they?

if you study the history of markets you may notice cycles that are inherent
in the market as well as our society. If we're aware of these cycles then wouldn't we be able to position ourselves early for a particular move?
  • #66
  • Jul 19, 2006 10:39am Jul 19, 2006 10:39am
I certainly understand the trend following concept, in fact I have written a system and manual based on exactly that (http://www.forexfactory.com/forexforum/showthread.php?t=6233). However trends don't last forever as Whathell mentioned, at some point an exhaustion point is met and market sentiment shifts in the other direction. It is this thought, and the fact that all the systems I read about concentrate on one axis, that being price, that made me wonder why we are ignoring the second axis, time.

Whathell is also right in saying cycles exist in the market, I have done a lot of intensive research over the past weeks into astrology, market cycles, group psychology etc. and it is without question that cycles do exist in the world in general, and in the markets. They have since rice trading, since the 1900's and Gann's work and they still do now, whether they be seasonal, lunar or otherwise.

I am in the middle of some intense cycle, astro-trading, time based research and back-testing at the moment, and I have to say I doubt I will return to purely price based trading ever. Too many of the legends in the trading world say one thing, the most important thing is time, when a moves time is over, it is over.

Just my thoughts anyway.
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #67
  • Edited 6:53pm Jul 19, 2006 10:50am | Edited 6:53pm
I am sorry if you undersood trend trading. I didn't mention the word trend, I used movement. I don't think I am trend trader, I think I am a movement trader. I have to see some signs that the price is going in one direction. It doesn't have to be trend direction, it just have to be as clear as posible that is going up or it's going down.

Today for example, i had a down trend ( in my opinion) but I took a long trade when bernake spoke. I had some good signs that the price will go up, I followed the signs. The signs where in price action and time. I say time because I had the signs at the same time when Bernake spoke. It wasn't a fib time line, it wasn't the moon.
In my opinion, news move the market, not the moon.
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #68
  • Jul 19, 2006 6:47pm Jul 19, 2006 6:47pm
hello Akuma i have been reading some of the replies that were given to you about time amounts of techniques,methods and studies and they are all important and the replies were good and some even helped me.but when using price action and time it's not so confusing when you apply the right method of event and what i mean buy methods of events is for me to understand past price present price and where price may or can go is to only use more than one time frame that gives different price and those time frames that i use is the 1week for overall direction daily to see more of trend direction 4hr for weekly direction1hr for daily direction 15min for daily execution and confirmation with 5min entry and what all this does for me is let me know where the trend is and how to trade the london open without trading on the wrong side #1 rule never trade against the trend hope this helps
Quoting Akuma99
Hey all, as well all know the amounts of techniques, methods and studies on price action is both extensive and confusing and certainly there is no need to go into that here. What is becoming more and more clear to me though is that we are really only looking at half of the picture. Think of your charts, we have an x axis and y axis, price on the y axis, and time on the x axis. My question is why are we focusing only on one axis, i.e. the y axis (price), and over all, not spending as much time analysing the other half of the picture, time.

So I thought it might be a good chance to start a thread where we can look into time anaylsis, things like cycles, fibonacci timezones, harmonic beats etc and see if we can't make a few discoveries along the way. It can be very simple things, for example, pull up the 1H EUR/USD, and measure 40-45 bars from a major high or low.
  • #69
  • Jul 19, 2006 7:00pm Jul 19, 2006 7:00pm
It is always entertaining to read posts when the subject of trading based on time is the focus. Those who don't understand the concecpt revert to the default "trend trading" and "news moves the markets."

For those of you studying time, be of good cheer. When you understand, you will laugh at the bemoanings of those not willing to think outside the box or do the work that you are doing. Continue your pursuits and abandon the "group think" on forums such as this. You may make a modest living "following the trend" but you will only attain true financial wealth by knowing when it is time to sell the high and buy the low.

xt
  • #70
  • Jul 19, 2006 7:16pm Jul 19, 2006 7:16pm
Thanks xt and anthony for your replies, anthony your methodology sounds logical and is a smart way to trade in the "traditional" (whatever that is) sense. xt, your thoughts mirror mine, it is quite clear to me that timing the markets is more important than measuring it. For example, there is one method I have been working on that would have got me in short on the 7/7, and in long yesterday, 19/7, at what price? ... doesn't really matter too much, although it always helps to finetune entries of course, but it was "time" for the trend to change.

Were there news event on those dates, yep you better believe it, NFP on the 7/7, and CPI/Bernske yesterday, but knowing that the time was right for a reversal, meant I didn't worry about what the news was, or what the initial reaction was, instead I can use the initial reaction with the trend to open against it with a nice safe stop as I bought (in the case of the EUR) at the top of the range. These are just two examples of dates, 3 years of backtesting shows quite reliable results, although relatively few trades if you are someone who likes daytrading.

It is a work in progress, and anyone who has been around FF for a while will know this is way apart from my normal strategy, I don't change a winning strategy unless I can clearly see some value in it. To know in advance when I am going to trade is such a lifestyle advantage.
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #71
  • Jul 19, 2006 7:33pm Jul 19, 2006 7:33pm
Akuma99,

You are well into the journey. I have seen you handle appear in a few places as of late. You will do well to digest the material found there and then go beyond.

As for intraday trading, many of the strategies you will learn along the journey will allow for timing on such a level, but it is best to study and be well versed in timing the major swings and then move to the "noise." By the way, you can get your timing down to the minute....it takes much study and a great deal of work, but it is possible.

Be of good cheer, the journey you are on is one few dare to tread, but the rewards are great.

xt
  • #72
  • Jul 19, 2006 7:45pm Jul 19, 2006 7:45pm
thanks xtsunami for the kind words, yes I have travel far and wide on the net looking for little jewels of information, I have daytraded profitable for the last 1.5 years, but with a small bub it just doesn't suit the lifestyle I invisage, so it was on to swing trading I went as that will suit things better.

It sounds like you know a little about timing? Mind if I bang heads with you via PM?
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #73
  • Jul 19, 2006 7:48pm Jul 19, 2006 7:48pm
Again trend trading, it's not about trend.

Anyway guys, good luck with you research. I think trying to find a corelation between moon and forex tradind will end up nowhere. I think it's a waste of time, time that some people have, some people don't. It's my opinion.
I don't contest anybody's trading skills, or anything like that. I just wanna wish you good luck, and I'll watch this thread because I know I might be wrong.
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #74
  • Jul 19, 2006 8:40pm Jul 19, 2006 8:40pm
Akuma99,

Please feel free to p.m. me, I shall make sure the function is enabled for you.

dof,

I am not one to criticize ones trading style usless they first be arrogant about their strategies. You have not been thus far. It is my opininon, however, that you may need to consider this:

Gann said that when time is up, change is inevitable.
  • #75
  • Jul 19, 2006 9:40pm Jul 19, 2006 9:40pm
Akuma, is there anyplace that you know of that I can find what news will be coming out on august 3? There may be a big move on that date.


Quoting Akuma99
Thanks xt and anthony for your replies, anthony your methodology sounds logical and is a smart way to trade in the "traditional" (whatever that is) sense. xt, your thoughts mirror mine, it is quite clear to me that timing the markets is more important than measuring it. For example, there is one method I have been working on that would have got me in short on the 7/7, and in long yesterday, 19/7, at what price? ... doesn't really matter too much, although it always helps to finetune entries of course, but it was "time" for the trend to change.

Were there news event on those dates, yep you better believe it, NFP on the 7/7, and CPI/Bernske yesterday, but knowing that the time was right for a reversal, meant I didn't worry about what the news was, or what the initial reaction was, instead I can use the initial reaction with the trend to open against it with a nice safe stop as I bought (in the case of the EUR) at the top of the range. These are just two examples of dates, 3 years of backtesting shows quite reliable results, although relatively few trades if you are someone who likes daytrading.

It is a work in progress, and anyone who has been around FF for a while will know this is way apart from my normal strategy, I don't change a winning strategy unless I can clearly see some value in it. To know in advance when I am going to trade is such a lifestyle advantage.
  • #76
  • Jul 19, 2006 9:50pm Jul 19, 2006 9:50pm
3rd of August is a big news day (I know where you are coming from btw), Bloomberg have a good calendar for future and past dates not shown here in FF (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html).

Some highlights on that day ... ECB announcements, BOE announcement, Jobless claims, factory orders ...
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #77
  • Jul 19, 2006 9:52pm Jul 19, 2006 9:52pm
dof, thanks for the honest opinion and the ammicable approach to telling me that you think I am wrong , the only true measure is whether I make money from it or not, proof in the pudding so to speak (damn now I am hungry ... where is that custard). It is interesting discussion if nothing else
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #78
  • Jul 19, 2006 9:54pm Jul 19, 2006 9:54pm
"For example, there is one method I have been working on that would have got me in short on the 7/7, and in long yesterday, 19/7, at what price?
"

Nice work Akuma, looks like you have gone far Good to see

The ability to anticipate trend change is definitely profitable


XT would you happen to be a member of WITS??
  • #79
  • Jul 20, 2006 12:31am Jul 20, 2006 12:31am
Quoting Akuma99
dof, thanks for the honest opinion and the ammicable approach to telling me that you think I am wrong , the only true measure is whether I make money from it or not, proof in the pudding so to speak (damn now I am hungry ... where is that custard). It is interesting discussion if nothing else
Oh yes, it's all about making money, that's true. I apreciate everybody who's doing research about making money and I apreciate even more when that research is shared with everybody else. I am thankfull, but also I am entitled to my own opinion.
I don't want to sound arogant, I didn't want to sount arogant, I'm just trying to express my opinion about not wasting time in a matter that might be wrong, I repeat, in my opinion.

It's true, it comes a time for everything, for a change in price direction, for everything. I'm just saying it's not easy or it can't pe predicted based on time only. All I'm saying that tradind is more about following a move than predicting a move, especially predicting a move based on full moon or other stuff like that.
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #80
  • Jul 20, 2006 12:49am Jul 20, 2006 12:49am
Quoting dof

It's true, it comes a time for everything, for a change in price direction, for everything. I'm just saying it's not easy or it can't pe predicted based on time only. All I'm saying that tradind is more about following a move than predicting a move, especially predicting a move based on full moon or other stuff like that.
Good to see you've found your niche Dof.
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