Should I go LIVE? | Forex Factory

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Should I go LIVE?

  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 5, 2014 1:15pm Jul 5, 2014 1:15pm
Hi. I have been trading on a program that allows you to make trades from REAL historical charts. The benefit is you dont have to wait the real time it takes for the candle to close - you can just hit the next candle button. Anyways, I think that I have found a strategy that works. Attached are the results. Should I go LIVE?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: historical investor results 1 - 7.5.2014.png Size: 115 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: historical investor results 2 - 7.5.2014.png Size: 107 KB
  • #2
  • Jul 5, 2014 4:14pm Jul 5, 2014 4:14pm
Ok let's think about this...


When you win on the back test what SYSTEM did you use? Moving average, MacD, Trendline, Price action... etc also can you put in "custom indicator (i doubt it)
". I am not interested in you showing the world what system you use to profit $$... I just want you to be aware that you are not trading blindly when in the real life you use "different custom indicator filter which CAN mess up your backtest result".

Also when you play live you have what you ca the "EMOTION and PATIENCE game..." I bet you might feel market is so slow you will just take profit at 5 pip or even close loss at the extreme low....

Even if you decide to go live you shouldn't play big volume.. just play "1 cent per pip" for 1 month see how it go. The problem here is can you handle the "patience playing very small to test out the system live for 1 month" ? if not then....don't go live.
  • #3
  • Jul 5, 2014 4:16pm Jul 5, 2014 4:16pm
Your graphic shows a total of 14 trades. If it was me, I'd want to see something like a minimum of 500 trades over many different market scenarios (trending, sideways, volatile, inert, etc) to get a better feel for how well the entries and exits perform under different conditions, and also to attain some statistical validity (i.e. prove that the results are not the result of 'blind luck'). However, if I knew that the strategy was grounded in some kind of orderflow (i.e. the hows and whys of price movement), then I might be willing to settle for a smaller test sample. Much would depend on how confident I felt about the strategy.

IMO the question of "should I go live?" is somewhat nondescript, because there's a massive emotional difference between trading for 10c/pip and (say) $50/pip. In other words, there's probably no reason why anybody couldn't go live trading microlots. It will also provide a more rigorous test than a simulator, as the latter may not consider real life factors like slippage. How quickly you scale up from there depends on performance and confidence; only you know what level of stakes you personally feel comfortable with. When starting out live, the golden rule is to trade only with money that you can afford to lose. Good luck.
  • #4
  • Jul 5, 2014 4:26pm Jul 5, 2014 4:26pm
Quoting hanover
Your graphic shows a total of 14 trades. If it was me, I'd want to see something like a minimum of 500 trades over many different market scenarios (trending, sideways, volatile, inert, etc) to get a better feel for how well the entries and exits perform under different conditions, and also to attain some statistical validity (i.e. prove that the results are not the result of 'blind luck'). However, if I knew that the strategy was grounded in some kind of orderflow (i.e. the hows and whys of price movement), then I might be willing to settle for a smaller test sample. Much would depend on how confident I felt about the strategy.

IMO the question of "should I go live?" is somewhat nondescript, because there's a massive emotional difference between trading for 10c/pip and (say) $50/pip. In other words, there's probably no reason why anybody couldn't go live trading microlots. It will also provide a more rigorous test than a simulator, as the latter may not consider real life factors like slippage. How quickly you scale up from there depends on performance and confidence; only you know what level of stakes you personally feel comfortable with. When starting out live, the golden rule is to trade only with money that you can afford to lose. Good luck.
+1

Especially the bolded part
  • #5
  • Jul 5, 2014 6:01pm Jul 5, 2014 6:01pm
You have to go live on demo account. Simulator . .... Then see what happens after 3-5 months. After that you decide if you ready to trade with small lots.
  • #6
  • Jul 5, 2014 6:08pm Jul 5, 2014 6:08pm
Quoting pbylina
Hi. I have been trading on a program that allows you to make trades from REAL historical charts. The benefit is you dont have to wait the real time it takes for the candle to close - you can just hit the next candle button. Anyways, I think that I have found a strategy that works. Attached are the results. Should I go LIVE? {image} {image}
Definetely go live ! Invest in your education
like totally failure brah
  • #7
  • Jul 5, 2014 6:33pm Jul 5, 2014 6:33pm
One cannot really tell whether something tastes good until trying out a small piece. No need to grab a big one, because you may not like it.

Go live, but small. Then you will know how it works out for you. There is nothing wrong with going back to demo or historical data. Learning is a cyclical experience. At the very least, try live demo. Simulator is even further detached from reality than a live demo account.
  • #8
  • Jul 5, 2014 8:09pm Jul 5, 2014 8:09pm
I've always been of the opinion that Demo should only be used to learn where all the buttons are, sort of speak. That should take no longer than a day or two. Once you are familiar with the platform setup, I recommend going live.
  • #9
  • Jul 6, 2014 12:49am Jul 6, 2014 12:49am
Quoting pbylina
Hi. I have been trading on a program that allows you to make trades from REAL historical charts. The benefit is you dont have to wait the real time it takes for the candle to close - you can just hit the next candle button. Anyways, I think that I have found a strategy that works. Attached are the results. Should I go LIVE? {image} {image}
hi pbylina,

good for you.i would say the altimate test of your method and your self will only become evident with some real dosh on the table.you will learne so much more about yourself and it will quickly become evident if you have the complete package.i don't think its possible to answer those questions in demo.i test everthing I do live.

good trading and im sure you will be fine

regards
  • #10
  • Edited 1:48am Jul 6, 2014 1:33am | Edited 1:48am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
I've always been of the opinion that Demo should only be used to learn where all the buttons are, sort of speak. That should take no longer than a day or two. Once you are familiar with the platform setup, I recommend going live.
2+2,

I don’t think there’s anything wrong with demo, but only if trading conditions, most especially the price feed, are 100% realistic.

I believe it’s important to be able to assess whether any performance failure is due to implementation, or to the strategy itself; i.e. whether the trader needs to spend time revising (and possibly overhauling) his strategy, or working on his personal psychology. Hence if a trader wants to test a strategy, without his emotions getting in the way, and microlots are enough to compromise his ability to execute consistently, then IMO he should use demo.

The widely-touted idea that “going live tests emotions” doesn’t work for me, because I find demo and microlots to be equally boring; being up or down a few dollars each week is of no consequence. By a process of trial and error, I discovered that my nerves start to be tested at around $5/pip. IMO everybody should know the level which triggers pain, and causes emotion to start overriding their decision making....... and there’s only one way to find out!! My guess is that it’s a lot lower than many people realize.

David
  • #11
  • Jul 6, 2014 2:24am Jul 6, 2014 2:24am
Quoting pbylina
Hi. I have been trading on a program that allows you to make trades from REAL historical charts. The benefit is you dont have to wait the real time it takes for the candle to close - you can just hit the next candle button. Anyways, I think that I have found a strategy that works. Attached are the results. Should I go LIVE? {image} {image}
Try cent account first, will make you "feel" like having the real live trading..
  • #12
  • Jul 6, 2014 8:41am Jul 6, 2014 8:41am
Yes playing 1cent per pip on live is very boring especially playing for 1 month. But 1cent live DO test emotion but it test with a different kind of "non nerve wrecking"

Emotion 1 cent per pip live testing:
1 - It test your patience in your system (aka watching paint dry very boring it can even make you go crazy)
2 - It give you an accurate system entry and exit (meaning some live system have custom indicator that work only on live, and what ever result that you achieve from entry and exit is the "real" real stats.


Emotion 5$ per pip live "trading" (not testing.... you don't test with 5$ per pip..)
1 - It test your patience of accepting a "huge floating draw down"
2 - It test your patience of no fear to enter and exit like your system plan. (usually after lose couple of big loss people give up hope and enter less and cut loss longer and tp fast which was NOT the way they test on demo or live 1cent testing)
3 - It test your ability to DARE to scale up % wise.. meaning if you keep wining eventually you have to play 6-10$ per pip. Will you have TRUST in your system to win where you can scale up...
4 - If you do a good job with 1-3, then It give you an income where you can pay your food and housing...
  • #13
  • Jul 9, 2014 12:58am Jul 9, 2014 12:58am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
I've always been of the opinion that Demo should only be used to learn where all the buttons are, sort of speak. That should take no longer than a day or two. Once you are familiar with the platform setup, I recommend going live.
+1 on that.
however if don't know what you are doing, keep away from live accounts all together.

On the "successful" historical strategy,

- past results aren't always an indicator of future performance.
- consider a larger sample space before branding the strategy as good.
  • #14
  • Jul 9, 2014 2:48am Jul 9, 2014 2:48am
As others have suggested, you may want to go live with a small account and test out your strategy..there's nothing to match real trading environment..and that's a fact. So go live with a small acc..and good luck, let us know how it pans out.
  • #15
  • Jul 9, 2014 7:59am Jul 9, 2014 7:59am
From the title I thought you were referring to LIVE as a verb, and I thought this was an inspirational story about you making a lot of money, and wanting to go live the REAL life, we all dream of...hahah
As to whether or not your should start live trading, I'd say you should probable wait a bit more, coz when you get enough self-confident in trading, you won't feel the need to ask for an advice concerning this matter, as this is very individual and there is no general advice.
Anyways, good luck and I wish you a lot of pips earned!
  • #16
  • Jul 9, 2014 8:16am Jul 9, 2014 8:16am
I went live too early, and lose money for 4 years. Average daily loss 0.5-3.0%, i blew 4 accounts and was on the verge of giving up. Don't go live until you yourself are confident enough to trade without asking unknown strangers for advice on the forums.

Be sure to understand the importance of liquidity. Technical analysis is designed to find support/resistance. Support/resistance is important because they are areas where imbalances in LIQUIDITY will change the price. Liquidity is everything.

GL to u.
  • #17
  • Jul 9, 2014 10:32am Jul 9, 2014 10:32am
Quoting d0ta
I went live too early, and lose money for 4 years. Average daily loss 0.5-3.0%, i blew 4 accounts and was on the verge of giving up. Don't go live until you yourself are confident enough to trade without asking unknown strangers for advice on the forums. Be sure to understand the importance of liquidity. Technical analysis is designed to find support/resistance. Support/resistance is important because they are areas where imbalances in LIQUIDITY will change the price. Liquidity is everything. GL to u.
Golden words ! If you do not have experience and enough knowledge, will keep loosing.
  • #18
  • Jul 11, 2014 5:01pm Jul 11, 2014 5:01pm
I see you have 2 things going for ya
1. I see no indicators on the charts. very nice ahead of the game already!
2. your practicing before throwing money in an account and praying to the forex gods.

keep practicing on your software till its boring, then go to open demo account trade demo real time till that's boring then open account (MICRO) and trade till its boring and nothing more than another day win or lose, then add to your capitol if your are profitable should be profitable through each step or return to go and donot collect 200$ just my 2 cents trading is more mental than you may think following these guidelines will help with the psychological aspect every trader faces
  • #19
  • Jul 11, 2014 8:10pm Jul 11, 2014 8:10pm
Quoting pbylina
Hi. I have been trading on a program that allows you to make trades from REAL historical charts. The benefit is you dont have to wait the real time it takes for the candle to close - you can just hit the next candle button. Anyways, I think that I have found a strategy that works. Attached are the results. Should I go LIVE? {image} {image}
It is up to you.

Why ask anyone else ?
The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan.
  • #20
  • Jul 11, 2014 10:22pm Jul 11, 2014 10:22pm
Probably not for a few reasons.

- Market is likely different from what you've been trading.
- You have a very small sample size.
- You haven't demo tested.
- You have very little experience.

If you do start live trading anyway, please only open a small $200 account and trade with 0.01 lots. If you profit say 7/10 days then consider going up to 0.02 and so on.
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