Eur-Usd in coming weeks!
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- #6,824
- Edited 4:02am Jul 10, 2014 3:49am | Edited 4:02am
Correction for the EUR/USD move from 1.40 to 1.3575 has ended at 1.3650. After a break of support @ 135(trendline from july 30 2012) this pair will skyrocket down 
. But will kill this trade when trading above 1.3670, great r/r in my view.
Don't wanna make huge calls here but reckon this trade has a huge risk reward potential. Similar setups at Swissie, Aussie but still think Cable needs to make a new (marginally) high above 1.71.67 to create a fifth of 5. I have put these EUR/USD charts on my blog this morning.
. But will kill this trade when trading above 1.3670, great r/r in my view.Don't wanna make huge calls here but reckon this trade has a huge risk reward potential. Similar setups at Swissie, Aussie but still think Cable needs to make a new (marginally) high above 1.71.67 to create a fifth of 5. I have put these EUR/USD charts on my blog this morning.
- #6,826
- Edited 6:43pm Jul 11, 2014 6:30pm | Edited 6:43pm
- Joined Feb 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,796 Posts
Correction for the EUR/USD move from 1.40 to 1.3575 has ended at 1.3650. After a break of support @ 135(trendline from july 30 2012) this pair will skyrocket down
I'm with u on EURUSD, and it's now on the 3rd of 3rd of 3rd wave down; also GBPUSD got another leg up to go and can be counted alternately as follows:
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
- #6,827
- Edited 3:19am Jul 12, 2014 1:15am | Edited 3:19am
{quote} Great charts and EW counts u've got there, FXBeppie.
see: http://fxbeppie.blogspot.be/2014/07/...ave-count.html
What I labeled wave 5 is then wave 5 of iii, which means we are now in iv of 5 after which wave 5 will be completed. In that case 1.7050 is critical because that's the end of wave 1 of 5 (no overlap), then we know which scenario is right. See the attached 4hr alternate chart.
However for now I stick with my latest count. Main reason: see attached 30min chart and check out the inner waves in aqua. It looks to me as a fully completed wave 5. For now, this bearish count invalidates when trading above 1.7150 (high of wave ii of a smaller degree)
The reason for my initial thinking of one move higher is the sideways action of the last week. This LOOKS corrective, and looks like a wave 4 but in this chop all kind of things happen.
Let's wait and see. Again, a break of 1.7050 will show us which scenario is right.
Edit: Took a closer look at your chart , I can see your case for the double zigzag, what I labeled as wave 1 of 5 are actually 2 three's but then you have a irregular b which exceeds the length of wave a by far more then 1.382%. But enough mumbo jumbo from my side for now.
Cheers.
- #6,829
- Jul 13, 2014 12:47am Jul 13, 2014 12:47am
- Joined Feb 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,796 Posts
{quote} Hi Skyhok, I completely understand why you expect another stab higher on Cable, I was thinking the same initially see: http://fxbeppie.blogspot.be/2014/07/...ave-count.html What I labeled wave 5 is then wave 5 of iii, which means we are now in iv of 5 after which wave 5 will be completed. In that case 1.7050 is critical because that's the end of wave 1 of 5 (no overlap), then we know which scenario is right. See the attached 4hr alternate chart. However for now I stick with my latest count. Main reason: see...
Thank you for the charts and discussion, FXBeppie - for looking at the counts objectively.
Please excuse me if I do count the waves differently or even have different views. Sometimes it is good to have as many alternate counts or views available for making decisions; and that's what i like about sharing in these trading forums - that if your count works better I'll hop onto it, if not, I'll get onto mine.................... It's a WIN-WIN.
I'll just explain a little about how I counted recent GBPUSD:
1. Since wave (ii) is simple, the alternation between wave (ii) and (iv) requires wave (iv) to be complex and time consuming - thus in a running correction, with the low and high extremities at a and b, and wave b being extended and wave c as an ED probably ending with a non-extended e wave.
2. A clean (ii)-(iv) bottom channel line is required with no parts of wave (iii) or (iv) sticking out.
3.Wave v has the potential of finishing at 1.7316 area where wave v = i, thus completing the advance of an impulse wave from July 2013 low.
While I can also see your wave i down as a Leading Diagonal and subsequent PA is probable and valid too, I do agree that time will tell.
Look forward to your next post.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
- #6,830
- Jul 13, 2014 9:12am Jul 13, 2014 9:12am
{quote} Thank you for the charts and discussion, FXBeppie - for looking at the counts objectively. Please excuse me if I do count the waves differently or even have different views. Sometimes it is good to have as many alternate counts or views available for making decisions; and that's what i like about sharing in these trading forums - that if your count works better I'll hop onto it, if not, I'll get onto mine.................... It's a WIN-WIN.
I see your case for 2-4 alternation, but personally I see it this way. When there is alternation it's great, if not I ignore it, but that's just me. I'm concentrating more on counting of innerwaves, channeling, fib relationships, overlap etc.
But looking at your charts i changed my mind back.
Initially I expected a stab higher, but changed my mind seeing bearish setups on all dollar pairs except Cable. Also, in my view there is a top made in stocks (see: http://fxbeppie.blogspot.be/2014/07/...nally-top.html) which is USD bullish. So something went wrong here ! 
The attached charts demonstrate we are currently in a double zigzag and after a small decline we are up for a last stab higher. Which is wave 5 of the impulse which started in may 2014. It's also wave 5 of wave 5 of the impulse which started in July 2013. BTW This should also be the end of a larger wave C which is part of the ABC correction which started in January 2009.
Anyway, I'm short at 1.7117, stop above 1.7150, but now I'm back to my short-term bullish view. But this double zigzag will probably go a bit lower. Trading under 1.7050 would invalidate this view, then this pair will go down a lot more in my view.
Keep those charts and views coming !
- #6,831
- Edited 5:13am Jul 14, 2014 12:21am | Edited 5:13am
- Joined Feb 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,796 Posts
I think Kiwi is at interesting levels as well, might turn here for the long run, but I don't want to make big calls here. Still an interesting setup, keep an eye on this one. Personally I will wait for 5 waves down and a wave 2/b up on the intraday charts to get myself positioned into this pair. I reckon the channel line at 79 is a nice first target if this plays out. 88.42 is critical, a break would invalidate all of this. Charts: {image} {image} {image}
I have similar long term view - that since 2008 (or 2007) top, this pair is in a multi-year correction. While I counted differently that it is still in corrective wave B as a Double Combination which will also complete very soon.
However, the Aug 2011 top @ 0.8841 is also a concern for me, too, whether it will be broken or not in the next week or so? and if broken would it invalidate my count? Like to hear your view on that.
While the latest impulse wave from 4th June low does seem very near to a reversal at least for the short term.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
- #6,834
- Jul 15, 2014 8:05am Jul 15, 2014 8:05am
- Joined Feb 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,796 Posts
Probable right shoulder formation of EURUSD.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
- #6,837
- Jul 16, 2014 3:15am Jul 16, 2014 3:15am
- Joined Feb 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,796 Posts
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
