Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 224 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #4,461
  • Jul 4, 2014 1:10am Jul 4, 2014 1:10am
Quoting panoramia
A quick update on my D1 buy trade on S&P 500, it was mentioned on last live webinar. What to do when price is making higher highs and making all time history over and over? Shorts because you expect a pullback and uptrend cannot be sustained. No way! Longs is the only way to go for higher odds. {image}
Just wanted to show how I do my trailing based on technical stops and new levels being created (sometimes potential levels). Trailing my S&P 500 D1 long a bit more on the Daily chart. I moved my SL underneath last month high. Trying to lock in some profits on this trade.

Potential D1 CP demand if price breaks higher and give us the right structure and imbalance
Have a great weeend!

Alfonso

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,462
  • Jul 4, 2014 1:13am Jul 4, 2014 1:13am
Hi Alfonso:

Nicely done on the S&P.

As an additional odd enhancer, do you look for demand zones on daily just below the previous month high when the monthly and daily both are in an uptrend?

thank you,
  • #4,463
  • Jul 4, 2014 1:54am Jul 4, 2014 1:54am
Quoting courier12
Hi Alfonso: Nicely done on the S&P. As an additional odd enhancer, do you look for demand zones on daily just below the previous month high when the monthly and daily both are in an uptrend? thank you,
Thanks a lot my friend!

Demand zones are located on the Daily based on the imbalance, basing structure, profit margin, etc. The last month highs/lows is just an odds enhancer, another confluence that will add a bit more probabilities for a level to work, the same applies to 20 EMAs on D1/WK/MN charts. They are just confluences, a last month/week high/low or a 20 EMA, or anything you might want to add like fibonacci retracements will just be confluences, they will not negate a level or confirm a level. A level is detected by supply and demand rules, all the rest is just confluences to add more odds to the trade.

Hope that makes sense.
Enjoy your weekend!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,464
  • Jul 5, 2014 2:02am Jul 5, 2014 2:02am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Thanks a lot my friend! Demand zones are located on the Daily based on the imbalance, basing structure, profit margin, etc. The last month highs/lows is just an odds enhancer, another confluence that will add a bit more probabilities for a level to work, the same applies to 20 EMAs on D1/WK/MN charts. They are just confluences, a last month/week high/low or a 20 EMA, or anything you might want to add like fibonacci retracements will just be confluences, they will not negate a level or confirm a level. A level is detected by supply and demand...
Yup! Perfect. Makes sense!

Thank you as always and have a Wonderful Weekend!
  • #4,465
  • Jul 6, 2014 4:06pm Jul 6, 2014 4:06pm
Hello fellow traders!

I will be organizing a new supply and demand live webinar next Thursday 10th July 2014 for all to join.

  1. TITLE: Live trading analysis for position longer term trading
  2. DATE: next Thursday 10th July 2014
  3. TIME: 10:00 AM - 11:30 AM CEST (Central European Time) | 1 hour after London Open
  4. LINK TO JOIN: if you have not joined one of my webinars before, you will need to fill in this form and you will get the link to join the webinar

We will go through a few pairs and analyze them with position type of trading in mind for longer term trading, one step beyond swing trading. The levels located can also be used for intraday and swing, it all depends on what type of trader you are and how much time or how busy you are in your personal live. We'll follow the rules one by one and you will be able to ask any questions.

The webinar will be recorded like always. Hope to see you there.

Have a great week!
Cheers,
Alfonso

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,466
  • Jul 7, 2014 1:24am Jul 7, 2014 1:24am
Quoting panoramia
I've created a small 25 minutes video on How to Draw Supply and demand Levels. It's a very mechanical, consistent and robotic way of drawing the levels the same way over and over and over. Consistency is key to success in any field of life, trading is not an exception. I've read some posts from other traders asking how to draw a level, why to use the closes or the highs, etc. This video will solve all of those doubts. Hopefully you will not have any more doubts as to how to draw them in a mechanical and consistent way. IMPORTANT: you will see SD...
Hello friends. sorry for my english. Please tell me where I can watch the video of this post(149) and 157? Unfortunately, these links to the video in these positions are no longer available. Thank you ...
  • #4,467
  • Jul 7, 2014 5:24am Jul 7, 2014 5:24am
Quoting lanmanager
{quote} Hello friends. sorry for my english. Please tell me where I can watch the video of this post(149) and 157? Unfortunately, these links to the video in these positions are no longer available. Thank you ...
Some videos are no longer available. All the videos avaialble can be found at the supply and demand youtube channel

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,468
  • Jul 7, 2014 5:38am Jul 7, 2014 5:38am

  1. Potential D1 demand long on USDSEK at 6.7034 if rules and scenario still apply. Top D1 supply is not fresh, this is the second pullback so it's a weak supply
  2. I had a D1 long winner from much lower at 6.2273 which I exited a bit below the D1 supply and now planning to go long on D1 demand at the D1 trendline and last month highs confluence. I didn't touch my SL so I could resist the pullback and retest of my entry. I could have held trade longer but I'm not greedy so now waiting for either a pullback to D1 demand or the opposing D1 supply to be removed solidly to continue to go long

Hope that it makes sense!

Alfonso

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,469
  • Jul 7, 2014 4:58pm Jul 7, 2014 4:58pm
Hi Alfonso,

Great thread and even better website. I will be registering later today. I have been studying S and D techniques for some years now and I have to say that up to date, your teaching is the most clear and comprehensive I came across with, also key is the strict set of rules as it helps to let subjectivity out of the equation. Looking forward to be an important member of your SD community. By the way, heads up on USDCAD hitting fresh weekly demand (flip zone)!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.png Size: 50 KB
Also worth noting usdcad seasonals... check this chart.
Attached Image
  • #4,470
  • Jul 7, 2014 7:21pm Jul 7, 2014 7:21pm
Quoting Fxww42
... By the way, heads up on USDCAD hitting fresh weekly demand
Hi Fxww42,

I would be keen to track your progress with your USDCAD long trade, as I entered on 2014-07-01 on the same setup at 1.0639 (see attached Weekly & Monthly charts)

This looked to me to be a great setup as price returned to a DZ that originated with an ERC (or OUT-candle as I like to call them) and coincided with a retouch of a weekly upwards Sloping Trend Line that already had 2 touches after the origin point.

My SL is currently sitting beyond the distal side of the Monthly DZ that triggered my trade (approx 130 pips). My initial target for the trade is way up at 1.2608 - the proximal edge of the Monthly SZ in control, and I will be looking for opportunities to add in positions along the way.

Keep posting your thoughts as the trade progresses and I will keep posting mine.

Cheers
Greg
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcadmonthly.png Size: 70 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcadweekly.png Size: 81 KB
  • #4,471
  • Jul 7, 2014 9:32pm Jul 7, 2014 9:32pm
Quoting GregT
{quote} Hi Fxww42, I would be keen to track your progress with your USDCAD long trade, as I entered on 2014-07-01 on the same setup at 1.0639 (see attached Weekly & Monthly charts) This looked to me to be a great setup as price returned to a DZ that originated with an ERC (or OUT-candle as I like to call them) and coincided with a retouch of a weekly upwards Sloping Trend Line that already had 2 touches after the origin point. My SL is currently sitting beyond the distal side of the Monthly DZ that triggered my trade (approx 130 pips). My initial...
Still not long Greg, waiting for confirmation signal as per rules.
  • #4,472
  • Jul 8, 2014 4:54am Jul 8, 2014 4:54am
Quoting GregT
{quote} Hi Fxww42, I would be keen to track your progress with your USDCAD long trade, as I entered on 2014-07-01 on the same setup at 1.0639 (see attached Weekly & Monthly charts) This looked to me to be a great setup as price returned to a DZ that originated with an ERC (or OUT-candle as I like to call them) and coincided with a retouch of a weekly upwards Sloping Trend Line that already had 2 touches after the origin point. My SL is currently sitting beyond the distal side of the Monthly DZ that triggered my trade (approx 130 pips). My initial...
I am with you on that USDCAD long Greg. I was triggered long on USDCAD D1 demand, a D1 imbalance nested within a WK and MN demand zone. Monthly is in an uptrend, weekly could be realigning with the Monthly uptrend. I drilled my entry down since the D1 imbalance has some tails. D1 imbalance was great. My SL has been moved underneath new H4 demand now which would result half of a loss, SL is underneath that H4 demand zone.

D1 demand zone taken had a strong imbalance and was nested within a Monthly demand zone with the MN chart still in an uptrend.
Alfonso

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad_d1.png Size: 63 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,473
  • Jul 8, 2014 5:28am Jul 8, 2014 5:28am
Quoting Fxww42
Hi Alfonso, Great thread and even better website. I will be registering later today. I have been studying S and D techniques for some years now and I have to say that up to date, your teaching is the most clear and comprehensive I came across with, also key is the strict set of rules as it helps to let subjectivity out of the equation. Looking forward to be an important member of your SD community. By the way, heads up on USDCAD hitting fresh weekly demand (flip zone)! {image} Also worth noting usdcad seasonals... check this chart. {image}
Thanks a lot for your kind comments and sharing your views on USDCAD, much appreciated.

I am already long on USDCAD, I am with Greg on this long based on the comments that I made on the previous post. Monthly is up, nested D1 demand with a great imbalance within that Monthly zone, also a Weekly demand zone.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,474
  • Edited 7:34am Jul 8, 2014 5:47am | Edited 7:34am
Hi Aflonso,
i am also long usdcad since yesterday and copper short today
after 3 years of "trading" and searching for something that made total sense of the markets to me i finally found this thread.

if im not mistaken there is a possible long crude coming up on D1. i cant post charts right now sorry

question about the webinar, when i registered for it it, the title said 17th but the the date section it said 10th or the other way around im not sure but just wanted to make sure its 10th (after tomorrow) correct?

Thanks
  • #4,475
  • Jul 8, 2014 7:48am Jul 8, 2014 7:48am
Quoting Fxww42
{quote} Still not long Greg, waiting for confirmation signal as per rules.
I am interested to understand your thinking about the confirmation you are waiting for. Can you please elaborate?
  • #4,476
  • Jul 8, 2014 10:35am Jul 8, 2014 10:35am
Quoting Dimi
Hi Aflonso, i am also long usdcad since yesterday and copper short today after 3 years of "trading" and searching for something that made total sense of the markets to me i finally found this thread. if im not mistaken there is a possible long crude coming up on D1. i cant post charts right now sorry question about the webinar, when i registered for it it, the title said 17th but the the date section it said 10th or the other way around im not sure but just wanted to make sure its 10th (after tomorrow) correct? Thanks
Hello there!

There was a mistake in the content of the webinar's email, but the link and description were ok, next webinar will be this Thursday the 10th July.

Post you charts later and let us what about that crude oil long on the D1 please.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,477
  • Jul 8, 2014 1:25pm Jul 8, 2014 1:25pm
Alfonso, thanks for that clarification on the webinar.
It appears to be at the demand zone that caused it to shoot up to new highs...(at least its what i see as i don't have much previous history to look back at). i still am not sure though how to handle levels that are on top of each other such as the two on the daily and three on H4, as reading the rules does very little for me because i am more of a visual learner so im in the process of watching all the videos on your youtube channel.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Crude Daily.png Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Crude H4.png Size: 47 KB
  • #4,478
  • Jul 8, 2014 3:39pm Jul 8, 2014 3:39pm
Guys,

Interesting approach. I'd like to watch or study some of the US futures contracts like the ES (S&P 500), NQ (Nasdaq), YM (Dow) and possibly the russell (TF) as well as the Crude oil future contract. However, i am not sure what broker(s) offer these instruments for MT4. Thanks.
  • #4,479
  • Jul 8, 2014 5:03pm Jul 8, 2014 5:03pm
Quoting GregT
{quote} I am interested to understand your thinking about the confirmation you are waiting for. Can you please elaborate?
Hi Greg, I am trading off the H4 chart and still haven't incorporated D1 triggers as part of my strategy as Forextester 2 still going based on that particular TF. I fully understand the reasoning of entering off the daily if taking into consideration the monthly uptrend line though
  • #4,480
  • Jul 8, 2014 6:44pm Jul 8, 2014 6:44pm
Quoting panoramia
A quick update on my D1 buy trade on S&P 500, it was mentioned on last live webinar. What to do when price is making higher highs and making all time history over and over? Shorts because you expect a pullback and uptrend cannot be sustained. No way! Longs is the only way to go for higher odds. {image}
hi panoramia,

could i request your SD_EA?

thank you
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