RBA Stevens: Economic Update | Forex Factory

RBA Stevens: Economic Update | Forex Factory

RBA Stevens: Economic Update

From rba.gov.au

This year marks a century of economics at the University of Tasmania, dating from the time Herbert Heaton took up duties as a lecturer in History and Economics in 1914. Heaton's pacifist and somewhat left-leaning views apparently caused some controversy, both in Tasmania and subsequently at the University of Adelaide. He left Australia in 1925 for Canada, and later had a successful academic career at the University of Minnesota.[1] Over the ensuing period, some of the greatest names in Australian economics studied here, taught here or otherwise carried out some part of their professional duties here. It's quite a ... (full story)

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Jul 3, 2014 6:39am

Quoting JollyBean

Disliked

Back to uptrend, but I expect more range-y movements to happen, or a slow climb. I just don't see this pair rising rapidly yet until 1) Stevens changes his tone from dovish to hawkish, or 2) US data continue to crash and burn. Else we're stuck in a range or slow climb/descend.

On the other hand if you're a bull, you'll be looking at these drops and possible further declines to add to longs like a few traders here are already doing and profiting.

Ignored

I agree with your comment...it was a perfect pullback to the 4hr 200ma for a "dip" in order to buy again. That being said, I personally don't mess with NFP as all bets are off and typically some big whipsawing takes place with this news...so I'm just watching from the sidelines. Many pips to you...Happy Trading!

Jul 3, 2014 10:07am

Quoting JollyBean

Disliked

Thanks, and many pips to you too

Actually there was an even better buying opportunity after the drop at the resistance-turned-support around 0.9330, hope someone caught it.

Anyway, trade safe!

Ignored

Yeah, I saw that too. I'm seeing some oversold conditions and divergence after these 2 days of drop to go along with the prior .9330 support area. Last hour was a nice push back up to .9360...if it comes down again I will probably take a small position long.

Jul 3, 2014 11:10pm

Think we have formed our bottom for now around .9330, I'm long .9350 with a s/l under .9330. Should see some type of retrace/retest above .9400...just need to see if we break above .9500 again or if we form a lower high for possible trend reversal. Althought with the US market closed, might not have too much action going on. Happy Trading!

Jul 4, 2014 8:42am

Quoting JollyBean

Disliked

Me thinks this is another case where everyone is going to pile on shorts here because of the large intimidating bearish daily candle, only to be get caught with their pants down when the bull trend proceeds to resume.

Anyway, good luck!

Ignored

Yeah, rarely do I see the a/u put in 3 bearish daily candles in a row...last time was back towards the end of Feb./early March. So it should retrace some at least. I was wondering if all the trading would die down today or if the low liquidity would allow someone to move the market....guess everyone is enjoying the long weekend. hehe Good luck on your trade too and have a good weekend everyone! Happy Trading!

Jul 3, 2014 3:37am

An honest and admittedly naive question, as I haven't studied the issue, but:

If I recall correctly, Stevens has acknowledged that the Aussie mining boom is over.

So I'm not clear on why he seems so interested in manipulating the AUD back down, just to benefit one sector, that is past its heyday, and that will need to rationalize its cost structure in any case.

Jul 2, 2014 9:56pm

Quoting JollyBean

Disliked

......In my opinion, his jawboning today has worked in bringing AUD lower, but now it's back to business

Ignored

JollyBean, back to business means back to bullish trend again or reversal of the trend?

Jul 2, 2014 9:44pm

Happily added to longs at 0.9375. At least the speech made it clear that Glenn understands we're living in unusual times. Says he doesnt want to jaw-bone the AUD, then proceeds to jaw-bone. lol. Says investors underestimating the risk of a fall in AUD, well the same can be said about USD.

In my opinion, his jawboning today has worked in bringing AUD lower, but now it's back to business

Jul 2, 2014 10:10pm — Edited

Quoting Kok Teong

Disliked

JollyBean, back to business means back to bullish trend again or reversal of the trend?

Ignored

Back to uptrend, but I expect more range-y movements to happen, or a slow climb. I just don't see this pair rising rapidly yet until 1) Stevens changes his tone from dovish to hawkish, or 2) US data continue to crash and burn. Else we're stuck in a range or slow climb/descend.

On the other hand if you're a bull, you'll be looking at these drops and possible further declines to add to longs like a few traders here are already doing and profiting.

Jul 3, 2014 9:54am

Quoting PA is King

Disliked

I agree with your comment...it was a perfect pullback to the 4hr 200ma for a "dip" in order to buy again. That being said, I personally don't mess with NFP as all bets are off and typically some big whipsawing takes place with this news...so I'm just watching from the sidelines. Many pips to you...Happy Trading!

Ignored

Thanks, and many pips to you too

Actually there was an even better buying opportunity after the drop at the resistance-turned-support around 0.9330, hope someone caught it.

Anyway, trade safe!

Jul 4, 2014 3:00am

Quoting PA is King

Disliked

Think we have formed our bottom for now around .9330, I'm long .9350 with a s/l under .9330. Should see some type of retrace/retest above .9400...just need to see if we break above .9500 again or if we form a lower high for possible trend reversal. Althought with the US market closed, might not have too much action going on. Happy Trading!

Ignored

Me thinks this is another case where everyone is going to pile on shorts here because of the large intimidating bearish daily candle, only to be get caught with their pants down when the bull trend proceeds to resume.

Anyway, good luck!

Jul 2, 2014 8:13pm

Quoting mmforexinfo

Disliked

It is very clear that even the RBA is not much happy with the AUD... just look at the charts....

Ignored

yes ....very clear now...add trade balance deficit in two month

Jul 2, 2014 8:27pm

Keep Calm and Buy The AUD ;-)

Jul 3, 2014 12:57am

" Nonetheless, we think that investors are under-estimating the likelihood of a significant fall in the Australian dollar at some point "

Anyone remember the threat back then from CHF central bank, before they actually surprise the market one day lol

Jul 2, 2014 8:18pm

RBA has dovish stance on AUD so it is only natural that they want to bring it down!

Jul 2, 2014 8:18pm

I will say, the selloff on a/u is impressive...haven't seen this much selling in a while. And with NFP tomorrow, all bets are off...I'll be staying out of the market. Trade Smart and Happy Trading.

Jul 2, 2014 8:46pm

Quoting Erebus

Disliked

Keep Calm and Buy The AUD ;-)

Ignored

haha yes! with you there

Jul 3, 2014 2:56am

Every man and this dog must be selling this pair at moment ,so.... WHO's BUYING all the sell orders... ;0 don't trade with the masses just wait patiently for AKA daily demand.

Jul 2, 2014 9:17pm

Last time Stevens jawboned AUD (Dec 12), it took about a month to make its first retrace back to pre-jawbone levels, and several more months to get sustained price action above pre-jawbone levels.

Jul 3, 2014 1:08am

Quoting autom

Disliked

Australia is an exporter

Ignored

See the trade balance chart, and zoom the range selector all the way out:

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php#graph=50629

Jul 2, 2014 8:10pm

Is downturn due to Steven's speech or CNY data?

Jul 2, 2014 8:07pm

It is very clear that even the RBA is not much happy with the AUD... just look at the charts....

Jul 2, 2014 8:21pm

This is what he said in the part about the exchange rate:
"...how to describe the exchange rate. For a period we described it as ‘uncomfortably high’."

"But lest there be any uncertainty about this, let me be clear, again, that the exchange rate remains high by historical standards. There is little doubt that significant parts of the trade-exposed sectors still find it quite ‘uncomfortable’: it continues to exert acute pressure for cost containment, productivity improvement and business model change."

"... most measurements would say it is overvalued, and not by just a few cents. Of course, we live in unusual times, with interest rates at the ‘zero lower bound’ in several major jurisdictions. Nonetheless, we think that investors are under-estimating the likelihood of a significant fall in the Australian dollar at some point."

Seems like the AUD is going for a deeper dive...

Jul 2, 2014 10:42pm

Quoting JollyBean

Disliked

Happily added to longs at 0.9375. At least the speech made it clear that Glenn understands we're living in unusual times. Says he doesnt want to jaw-bone the AUD, then proceeds to jaw-bone. lol. Says investors underestimating the risk of a fall in AUD, well the same can be said about USD.

In my opinion, his jawboning today has worked in bringing AUD lower, but now it's back to business

Ignored

They are only talking it down to buy more of it, think like massive banks people, they always do the opposite of the masses

Jul 2, 2014 10:43pm

Quoting Sun-Trader

Disliked

trend line is broken and I see it going down hard till atleast 0.9000 then we will see next move.

Australia being major importer cant afford strong currency.

Ignored

Australia is an exporter

Jul 2, 2014 8:12pm

Quoting Kok Teong

Disliked

Is downturn due to Steven's speech or CNY data?

Ignored

probably mix of both

Trader#7543

Jul 2, 2014 8:15pm

The Exchange Rate

Another issue in communication has been how to describe the exchange rate. For a period we described it as â€˜uncomfortably highâ€™. It subsequently declined, though we suspect that was due more to a change in mood in global capital markets than to our words per se. We altered our language to reflect that decline, and then adjusted it again as the currency re-traced some of that rise.
There seems to have been a very strong focus on whether the adjective â€˜uncomfortableâ€™ would be put into use once more in the post-Board statements. It hasn't been, though I don't regard that to be as significant as many people seem to think it is. We have tried to avoid frequent and large language shifts about the exchange rate. It can vary enough from month to month that we risk chasing our tails if we seek to engage too actively in â€˜jawboningâ€™ each month.
But lest there be any uncertainty about this, let me be clear, again, that the exchange rate remains high by historical standards. There is little doubt that significant parts of the trade-exposed sectors still find it quite â€˜uncomfortableâ€™: it continues to exert acute pressure for cost containment, productivity improvement and business model change. When judged against current and likely future trends in the terms of trade, and Australia's still high costs of production relative to those elsewhere in the world, most measurements would say it is overvalued, and not by just a few cents. Of course, we live in unusual times, with interest rates at the â€˜zero lower boundâ€™ in several major jurisdictions. Nonetheless, we think that investors are under-estimating the likelihood of a significant fall in the Australian dollar at some point.

Jul 2, 2014 8:19pm

The Exchange Rate

Nonetheless, we think that investors are under-estimating the likelihood of a significant fall in the Australian dollar at some point.

Jul 2, 2014 8:24pm

hmmmm.... sell aud

Jul 2, 2014 8:48pm

Quoting Erebus

Disliked

Keep Calm and Buy The AUD ;-)

Ignored

may be because it's facing strong support on daily

Jul 2, 2014 8:56pm

Quoting anytime1991

Disliked

may be because it's facing strong support on daily

Ignored

The fact that the Build Apps came in well helps support current levels as well

Jul 2, 2014 9:30pm

what could be lower target now? 0.9000?

Jul 2, 2014 10:11pm

trend line is broken and I see it going down hard till atleast 0.9000 then we will see next move.

Australia being major importer cant afford strong currency.

Jul 3, 2014 1:06am

Quoting autom

Disliked

Australia is an exporter

Ignored

not talking about iron ore lol

apart from that Ausi imports almost every thing.

Jul 3, 2014 1:07am

0.8888 is long term target for Ausi

Jul 3, 2014 11:25am

comon gbpusd crush u motherfuker fall lke shit

Trader#8554

Jul 2, 2014 9:26pm

If you confuse of aud . You should think a bout nzd . Good rate and same effect on cny data

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Jul 2, 2014 8:00pm
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AU RBA Gov Stevens Speaks