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Basic - trading extreme positioning

  • #81
  • Jul 2, 2014 1:58am Jul 2, 2014 1:58am
Also important to note if you look at the history in that section, you can see whenever extreme 80-90%+ levels are reached , it's not too far from a turn around, at least short term….. So it's not as simple as one would think.

At times a big move is about to happen against the majority, other times it's the bottom/top at least short term..
  • #82
  • Jul 2, 2014 2:08am Jul 2, 2014 2:08am
We were speaking about possible selling of USDCHF that is over 70% long on at least two different brokers and near 70% on third. After last adjustment (based on new low) the pending order would be set at 0.8878 and triggered today. Let us see where it goes.
If price will go against us then next pending sell limit is 0.8900 and third one 0.8944.

Edit: One obstacle for trading USDCHF could be the fact that EURUSD is still very neutral.
  • #83
  • Jul 2, 2014 2:15am Jul 2, 2014 2:15am
Quoting Ck87
Also important to note if you look at the history in that section, you can see whenever extreme 80-90%+ levels are reached , it's not too far from a turn around, at least short term….. So it's not as simple as one would think. At times a big move is about to happen against the majority, other times it's the bottom/top at least short term..
Exactly. Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. Zero sum game overall, game of playing with probabilities for one trader.
  • #84
  • Jul 2, 2014 2:41am Jul 2, 2014 2:41am
Taking a look at USD/JPY, the market has been sideways for months, and every time we've seen 80-90% extremes it's been a top or bottom…. currently at 80% long coming off 90% long the day it bottomed few days ago……. so I think we can expect a rally there
  • #85
  • Edited 6:05am Jul 2, 2014 3:19am | Edited 6:05am
Quoting Ck87
Taking a look at USD/JPY, the market has been sideways for months, and every time we've seen 80-90% extremes it's been a top or bottom…. currently at 80% long coming off 90% long the day it bottomed few days ago……. so I think we can expect a rally there
USDCHF is now a good example for monitoring what will happen when price goes against us sharply. Crowds are long and USDCHF is also going long. Let us see if all our possible entries trigger, and what happens next.
And one more thing: we may trade whatever system but nothing ever protects us from sudden fundamental moves. We can stay aside before big events included in the calendar but we never know when someone is going to say something that moves the market etc.
  • #86
  • Edited 4:43am Jul 2, 2014 3:53am | Edited 4:43am
Update on trades that we could take so far this week:
long GBPUSD +153
short USDJPY -3
short USDCAD +48
short EURCHF +20
short USDCHF -10

Edit: EURGBP could be also tradeable by now. Pending sell limit orders should be set @ 0.7969, 0.7987, 0.8023.
  • #87
  • Jul 2, 2014 7:32am Jul 2, 2014 7:32am
There's the usd/jpy rally.. so on point.
  • #88
  • Edited 8:19am Jul 2, 2014 7:57am | Edited 8:19am
Quoting Ck87
There's the usd/jpy rally.. so on point.
We need at least 100 trades or 6 months data to say at least something about a system.
Besides, USDJPY is not over 70% on all brokers any more today. On Alpari it is even 59%. So, time to close or avoid it anyway. If still keeping it, nothing terrible has happened yet. Two sell orders triggered: 101.43 and 101.62. Next sell level is 101.99.
  • #89
  • Jul 2, 2014 8:15am Jul 2, 2014 8:15am
Hi 5abi,

I tried doing the same idea earlier this year, but I was entering at market - I made tons at first, but then lost it all - so your idea of staggered orders away from the market is of interest to me, and I have a few questions.


In your very first post, you say:

"If USD/JPY trades at 101.40 today, I will have 3 sell orders at below levels -

Order 1 : Sell 100 K at 101.65 (0.25% of current price)
Order 2: Sell 100 K at 101.90 (0.5 % of current price)
Order 3: Sell 100 K at 102.40 (1 % of current price)

Stops and Targets:

I use mental stops based on price action. If I am bearish USD/JPY but it behaves like bullish (goes thru major resistance etc) I will close the positions manually.
For targets, I take off positions at round numbers, like 101, 100.5, 100 etc.

Risk Management:

For any trade, my maximum risk is 5 % of equity in account. So on a 100 K account, I will risk not more than 5, 000."


My questions are:
TARGETS
1) For targets at round numbers, would you close Order 1 at 101.50 , or 101.00 ?
2) If you were filled on your first two orders, would you close them both at 101.50 ?
3) If you were filled on all 3 orders, would you close Order 3 at 102.00 while still keeping the other orders open ?

RISK
4) Is that 5% of your equity when you add up the risk from all 3 positions ?

Thanks.
  • #90
  • Jul 2, 2014 8:19am Jul 2, 2014 8:19am
Quoting Indrek
{quote} We need at least 100 trades or 6 months data to say at least something about a system. Besides, USDJPY is not over 70% on all brokers any more today. On Alpari it is even 59%. So, time to close or avoid it anyway.
Told you if you check history on USD.JPY past months it's been sideways and nearly every time we see 80-90% extreme the market has topped or bottomed. You have to have different ways of predicting the information we get and check how it's been reacting to the extremes in previous times for the highest probability signals.
  • #91
  • Jul 2, 2014 8:36am Jul 2, 2014 8:36am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Told you if you check history on USD.JPY past months it's been sideways and nearly every time we see 80-90% extreme the market has topped or bottomed. You have to have different ways of predicting the information we get and check how it's been reacting to the extremes in previous times for the highest probability signals.
Yes but question is if we win more than we lose long term on all pairs together. It is hard to estimate without proper backtesting that would be big waste of time. So, I will just go on with monitoring the behaviour of the system in real time.
  • #92
  • Jul 2, 2014 8:42am Jul 2, 2014 8:42am
Quoting Indrek
Update on trades that we could take so far this week: long GBPUSD +153 short USDJPY -3 short USDCAD +48 short EURCHF +20 short USDCHF -10 Edit: EURGBP could be also tradeable by now. Pending sell limit orders should be set @ 0.7969, 0.7987, 0.8023.

same like gbp/jpy ~~!
  • #93
  • Jul 2, 2014 10:04am Jul 2, 2014 10:04am
Usd/jpy is moving the same as the forex factory lots chart. Could jpy pairs not be favourable using this system? I wonder.
  • #94
  • Jul 2, 2014 12:09pm Jul 2, 2014 12:09pm
Quoting menpowerup
Usd/jpy is moving the same as the forex factory lots chart. Could jpy pairs not be favourable using this system? I wonder.
By now, USDJPY has even not triggered the third trade. According to my version of the system we would have just two trades open at -51 pips total. Not even worth mentioning, and certainly not worrying. Let us see what will happen next.
USDJPY is now only 57% long at Alpari and 60% long at FF. So, rest would be our own risk if we had the trades still open.
  • #95
  • Jul 2, 2014 12:20pm Jul 2, 2014 12:20pm
SHORT GBP/USD - GBP/JPY -CAD/JPY

LONG EUR/GBP - USD/CAD I hope Im raight way
  • #96
  • Jul 2, 2014 12:29pm Jul 2, 2014 12:29pm
Quoting mara1
SHORT GBP/USD - GBP/JPY -CAD/JPY LONG EUR/GBP - USD/CAD I hope Im raight way
Hi mara1..

What I understood from the system of 5abi is the opposite of what you stated.. so the majority wants to go short we go long.. and vice versa.. that's what I understood. Now you are saying "short" for GBP/USD for example.. isn't that wrong? Or did I get you wrong? Could you check please?

Happy Trades
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #97
  • Jul 2, 2014 1:45pm Jul 2, 2014 1:45pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Hi mara1.. What I understood from the system of 5abi is the opposite of what you stated.. so the majority wants to go short we go long.. and vice versa.. that's what I understood. Now you are saying "short" for GBP/USD for example.. isn't that wrong? Or did I get you wrong? Could you check please? Happy Trades
OMG Thx Ata!
  • #98
  • Jul 2, 2014 2:13pm Jul 2, 2014 2:13pm
Quoting mara1
{quote} OMG Thx Ata!
You're welcome.. just wanted to be sure..
Happy Trades
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #99
  • Jul 2, 2014 3:06pm Jul 2, 2014 3:06pm
Trying to help you guys make better use of these numbers but if you want to have a set system on information and positions that are changing day to day and add to losing positions be my guest.
  • #100
  • Edited 4:09pm Jul 2, 2014 3:24pm | Edited 4:09pm
Quoting Ck87
Trying to help you guys make better use of these numbers but if you want to have a set system on information and positions that are changing day to day and add to losing positions be my guest.
Nobody is adding to losing positions - three pending orders at different levels were part of original rules.
So far, we have still two trades for USDJPY and their floating result is -47 pip total. In parallel we have one GBPUSD trade at +148 pip. I see no problem with that.
I cannot comment on historical data from FF Trades because I am not using this data. Like I said before, such a small group of good traders in FF cannot represent the forex retail market that in general consists of losers who are mostly wrong.
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