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Basic - trading extreme positioning

  • #61
  • Jul 1, 2014 9:41am Jul 1, 2014 9:41am
Quoting Indrek
{quote} Thanks, 5abi. Basically, my modifications would be as follows: 1. We trade pairs that are over 70% long or short on at least two big brokers. 2. We calculate entries using ATR not % of price. For example: 0,5*daily ATR, 1*daily ATR and 2*daily ATR. What period of ATR to use is matter of choice, I like ATR(20) for daily. 3. We set pending orders up or down from last important low or high on hourly chart according to the calculation. Today we would have four trades triggered with these rules: long GBPUSD at 1.7017, short USDCAD @ 1.0679, short...
Indrek,

I will have to test this sometime tonight or tomorrow when i get to my hotel room. But thanks for pitching in. Good luck with your trades.
Its all in the mind.
  • #62
  • Jul 1, 2014 10:02am Jul 1, 2014 10:02am
Indrek can you load a template if you have one you can share?
  • #63
  • Jul 1, 2014 11:22am Jul 1, 2014 11:22am
Quoting 5abi
{quote} I think it will be a great idea if a smart programmer could take this data source and create a MT4 dashboard. My coding skills are elementary. But if some one could do it, I can definitely see value for this.
Thinking about it some more, it would probably be just as useful to have it plot as an oscillator at the bottom of the chart.

The only downside is that it wouldn't print anything historically or when your platform is closed.........
  • #64
  • Edited 11:37am Jul 1, 2014 11:24am | Edited 11:37am
Quoting 5abi
Introduction: I want to share a trading approach that has worked fairly well for me of late. I started trading fx in 2008 and was a break even trader for a long time. Back when I started trading, my approach was mostly technical- lot of indicators, volume, fancy systems etc. I lost money some months, I made money some months. Overall, nothing spectacular. I ended the year where i started if not worse. Approach: Needless to say a purely technical approach did not work for me. Beginning April of last year, I came across this feature that Forex Factory...

Agree with using sentiment to have the best idea of where prices are heading…..

Support & Resistance levels all you need on a chart, if you even need a chart
  • #65
  • Jul 1, 2014 11:57am Jul 1, 2014 11:57am
Wish they'd allow us to enter XAU/USD in here...
  • #66
  • Jul 1, 2014 12:02pm Jul 1, 2014 12:02pm
Quoting Indrek
{quote} Did you check the trades I mentioned yesterday? GBPUSD is by now +128 pips, USDCAD +20, USDJPY -8, EURCHF +22, USDCHF not triggered.
Hi Indrek, yes I did looking impressive,even if this dosent work in this format Im sure we can use it in some form,cheers.
  • #67
  • Jul 1, 2014 12:11pm Jul 1, 2014 12:11pm
Quoting eaglefaith7
Indrek can you load a template if you have one you can share?
Clean chart is the best template for the system. What else could we need? We take statistical data from websites and rest is pure math.

Quoting buster48
{quote} Hi Indrek, yes I did looking impressive,even if this dosent work in this format Im sure we can use it in some form,cheers.
Sure, so far we have just a nice idea and no real proof. The version that I described was a result of only couple of hours of research and analysis. Real conclusions can be made after 6+ months of trading.
  • #68
  • Jul 1, 2014 12:14pm Jul 1, 2014 12:14pm
OK Thanks!
  • #69
  • Jul 1, 2014 12:15pm Jul 1, 2014 12:15pm
Clean chart always best, indicators are worthless.. actually worse than worthless.
  • #70
  • Jul 1, 2014 12:23pm Jul 1, 2014 12:23pm
Quoting Ck87
Clean chart always best, indicators are worthless.. actually worse than worthless.
Don't forget that candles are an indicator..........

They are just arbitrary snapshots of time.............

All markets are rigged...........

All designed so that the big guys can take money off the little guys..........
  • #71
  • Jul 1, 2014 12:39pm Jul 1, 2014 12:39pm
Quoting Gt3rs
{quote} Don't forget that candles are an indicator.......... They are just arbitrary snapshots of time............. All markets are rigged........... All designed so that the big guys can take money off the little guys..........

Couldn't agree more.
  • #72
  • Jul 1, 2014 1:15pm Jul 1, 2014 1:15pm
Quoting Gt3rs
{quote} Don't forget that candles are an indicator.......... They are just arbitrary snapshots of time............. All markets are rigged........... All designed so that the big guys can take money off the little guys..........

So you think candlesticks should be avoided too ?

Considering using line charts instead… I'm so sick of all indicators at this point, don't even want to look at charts.. but obviously it is good to show you where prices have gone/marking support resistance... instead of having to write it down

For some reason I'm noticing the line charts don't show when price has gone up to certain points but didn't last there too long (pin bars) … so I guess i'll stick w the candlesticks for now
  • #73
  • Jul 1, 2014 1:36pm Jul 1, 2014 1:36pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} So you think candlesticks should be avoided too ? Considering using line charts instead… I'm so sick of all indicators at this point, don't even want to look at charts.. but obviously it is good to show you where prices have gone/marking support resistance... instead of having to write it down For some reason I'm noticing the line charts don't show when price has gone up to certain points but didn't last there too long (pin bars) … so I guess i'll stick w the candlesticks for now
All I'm saying is that candlesticks are an indicator - and you should be aware of that fact.

For example, why do we have a 1 hour candle? Or a daily candle?

Because it fits with our psyche.

A 1 hour candle doesn't mean anything more than a 3 hour, 27 minute and 51 second candle. It just shows a snapshot of price movement within a given amount of time. As human beings, we like to divide it up nice and evenly.......

Think about it..............
  • #74
  • Jul 1, 2014 1:38pm Jul 1, 2014 1:38pm
Quoting Gt3rs
{quote} All I'm saying is that candlesticks are an indicator - and you should be aware of that fact. For example, why do we have a 1 hour candle? Or a daily candle? Because it fits with our psyche. A 1 hour candle doesn't mean anything more than a 3 hour, 27 minute and 51 second candle. It just shows a snapshot of price movement within a given amount of time. As human beings, we like to divide it up nice and evenly....... Think about it..............
Agree about time frames basically being irrelevant ….
  • #75
  • Jul 1, 2014 2:11pm Jul 1, 2014 2:11pm
"The market will move to cause most pain to most traders".

It sure looks that way at times. But beside being a catchy bit, what makes you so sure of that this is true?

Insider.
  • #76
  • Jul 1, 2014 2:44pm Jul 1, 2014 2:44pm
I have no frustration about indicators. If they are properly chosen and read, they are of great help. You just have to know their possibilities and limits. Indicators are always for visual aid, while all trades have been executed by traders not indicators.
As trading is globally a zero sum game, it is correct to trade against the crowd of retail traders who basically are losers in this game. Main question is how to catch the right moment. It can be predicted with mathematical methods most of the time but then at some point shit happens.
But one thing is sure: if you recognize that market is causing you very big pain and you really feel anger about it, then you have to either make a pause in your trading or even quit forever.
  • #77
  • Jul 1, 2014 8:57pm Jul 1, 2014 8:57pm
Quoting Indrek
As trading is globally a zero sum game, it is correct to trade against the crowd of retail traders who basically are losers in this game. Main question is how to catch the right moment. It can be predicted with mathematical methods most of the time but then at some point shit happens.
But one thing is sure: if you recognize that market is causing you very big pain and you really feel anger about it, then you have to either make a pause in your trading or even quit forever.

Very true.
  • #78
  • Edited Jul 2, 2014 12:30am Jul 1, 2014 11:47pm | Edited Jul 2, 2014 12:30am
Quoting Indrek
{quote} 2. We calculate entries using ATR not % of price. For example: 0,5*daily ATR, 1*daily ATR and 2*daily ATR. What period of ATR to use is matter of choice, I like ATR(20) for daily. 3. We set pending orders up or down from last important low or high on hourly chart according to the calculation.
Hi Indrek,
Possible to show example via chart base on the concepts mentioned and do you have SL/TS? Thanks

Sam
  • #79
  • Jul 2, 2014 1:49am Jul 2, 2014 1:49am
Interesantly strategy

how about TP and SL
  • #80
  • Edited 6:35am Jul 2, 2014 1:55am | Edited 6:35am
Quoting sam2vt
{quote} Hi Indrek, Possible to show example via chart base on the concepts mentioned and do you have SL/TS? Thanks Sam
Not much to show on chart. Here is the situation in the morning of Monday, June 30 when we could buy GBPUSD according to the data. New week started, GBPUSD was over 70% short on at least three big brokers (even over 80% on Alpari). So, we started to look at hourly chart where to set our pending orders. We identified last important high at 1.7051. As daily ATR(20) was 67, we entered 34 pips lower - at 1.7017. If price would go against us then next pending order would be 33 pips lower than that - 1.6984, and the third one 67 lower than second - 1.6917.
I have no SL nor TP solution right now. But in general I think that if we enter based on the fact that a pair is above 70% long or short, then we should not hurry to close our trade before the open position ratio falls to certain level. Depends on how strong our nerves are
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