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  • #581
  • Jun 29, 2014 10:04pm Jun 29, 2014 10:04pm
Quoting jmn5611
Markets are fractal. If we can agree on that,
I don't agree that markets are fractal. Price movements can appear that way when measured and presented a certain way, ie a candlestick chart with variable timeframes, but the process of different people buying and selling at different times is certainly not fractal.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #582
  • Jun 30, 2014 12:20am Jun 30, 2014 12:20am
Quoting numbnuts
{quote} I don't agree that markets are fractal. Price movements can appear that way when measured and presented a certain way, ie a candlestick chart with variable timeframes, but the process of different people buying and selling at different times is certainly not fractal.
I think that assertion takes us into the land of market profile and/or AMT. Not a bad way to analyse data, but I don't see a lot people building systems are around it, at least not around here. I wonder why that is?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #583
  • Jun 30, 2014 12:27am Jun 30, 2014 12:27am
Quoting hannele
{quote} Go on, you have my full attention (sorry about lack of vodka but I don't think we need it tonight - I'll get some merlot for tomorrow and a comfy chair, front of fireplace - you would not think it gets cold in Australia but it does.... - I anticipate a great story). cheers hannele
I can't write today. Moved into my new house, no Internet. Will post on getting one.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #584
  • Jun 30, 2014 12:55am Jun 30, 2014 12:55am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I think that assertion takes us into the land of market profile and/or AMT. Not a bad way to analyse data, but I don't see a lot people building systems are around it, at least not around here. I wonder why that is?
There are strategies floating around here that seek to manipulate time-of-day based inefficiencies - DIBS, London Open Breakouts, Seneca Pilot's ramblings among others. These strategies are built on the foundational belief that markets are not fractal - if markets are fractal then these strategies are wrong on a very fundamental level.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #585
  • Jun 30, 2014 1:04am Jun 30, 2014 1:04am
Quoting numbnuts
{quote} There are strategies floating around here that seek to manipulate time-of-day based inefficiencies - DIBS, London Open Breakouts, Seneca Pilot's ramblings among others. These strategies are built on the foundational belief that markets are not fractal - if markets are fractal then these strategies are wrong on a very fundamental level.
Good point.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #586
  • Jun 30, 2014 1:38am Jun 30, 2014 1:38am
Quoting numbnuts
{quote} There are strategies floating around here that seek to manipulate time-of-day based inefficiencies - DIBS, London Open Breakouts, Seneca Pilot's ramblings among others. These strategies are built on the foundational belief that markets are not fractal - if markets are fractal then these strategies are wrong on a very fundamental level.
I disagree with the logic of time of day strategies nullifying fractal patterns as applied to time frames.

By the very essence you are comparing apples to oranges.

Because of the strategies that I work with that have triggering logic on multiple time frames, I can actually attest to the fact that if a pattern is spotted on any time frame it can be traded to range of the time frame as would be traded across the board.

Though I cannot prove the same patterns apply to the yearly time frames as being a part of this same structure, I do watch for the same triggering logic from the M1 through the D1 charts and trade them to the session that is relevant.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #587
  • Jun 30, 2014 2:33am Jun 30, 2014 2:33am
Quoting Magix
I disagree with the logic of time of day strategies nullifying fractal patterns as applied to time frames. By the very essence you are comparing apples to oranges. Because of the strategies that I work with that have triggering logic on multiple time frames, I can actually attest to the fact that if a pattern is spotted on any time frame it can be traded to range of the time frame as would be traded across the board. Though I cannot prove the same patterns apply to the yearly time frames as being a part of this same structure, I do watch for the...
Maybe there are specific strategies which work across all timeframes, but I'm not sure that disproves my belief. What I think would disprove the belief in fractal markets, is the existence of strategies that work on some timeframes but not on others. Candlestick patterns, and individual candles, are the sum of all activity occurring in that particular block of time. For markets to be truly fractal, the activity occurring within each 1 hour block of time would need to be a scale replica of the activity occurring within a day - obviously that isn't realistic, since the market behaves differently at different times of the day.

I think candlestick charts create the illusion of fractal behavior. Imagine an open outcry market, or trading off a ticker screen - would anyone think price behavior was fractal when relayed through those mediums? I doubt it.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #588
  • Jun 30, 2014 2:52am Jun 30, 2014 2:52am
Quoting numbnuts
For markets to be truly fractal, the activity occurring within each 1 hour block of time would need to be a scale replica of the activity occurring within a day - obviously that isn't realistic, since the market behaves differently at different times of the day.
This is the exact observation I am talking about on a fractal level.

Comparing the activity inside of an hourly through the optics of an M1 chart is the same as comparing the daily candle through the optics of an H1 candle.

The application of the patterns created are applicable cross market through these observed time frames...and thus allow strategies to be applied to different time frames for the market applicable range.

Even by range of oscillators as applied to market, they are built off of the same structure. A comparison of price to time, or even more specifically, Stochastic as a measure of range in the pattern of predefined period.

If they can be applied and effectively utilized across the time frames, this in itself is the proof of a fractal based market.

Are the time frames the same to dictate the same patterns?

Depending on the tool used and the applicable strategy...yes,,,
Depending on the comparison from smaller time frames spread into larger, maybe not as much...

Example, maybe on the M1 chart you are comparing an indicator to the hour, where as you may compare the M5 to the H4 and H1 to daily...
60x M1 candles in 1 hour, is not the same as 48x M5 candles in an H4, is not the same as 24x H1 in a daily candle.

Depending on the application, can really define the fractals that are observed.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #589
  • Jun 30, 2014 3:13am Jun 30, 2014 3:13am
Quoting Magix
Comparing the activity inside of an hourly through the optics of an M1 chart is the same as comparing the daily candle through the optics of an H1 candle.
I think you are right, the relationships between different timeframes, the process of dropping to a lower TF to further analyze a higher one, is most likely fractal. I was talking about the activity within each individual timeframe - ie, price action on a M1 chart being a fractal form of price action on a 1D chart, which I think is an illusion.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #590
  • Jun 30, 2014 3:24am Jun 30, 2014 3:24am
Quoting numbnuts
{quote} I think you are right, the relationships between different timeframes, the process of dropping to a lower TF to further analyze a higher one, is most likely fractal. I was talking about the activity within each individual timeframe - ie, price action on a M1 chart being a fractal form of price action on a 1D chart, which I think is an illusion.
Though I view these as the same...

We all see what we all see.

Your interpretation of the market being fractal is different that what mine or JMNs may be.

Kewl....

Just wanted to clarify.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #591
  • Jun 30, 2014 3:46am Jun 30, 2014 3:46am
I think most get distracted with petty arguments and spoil threads that had something interesting building here.

Having said that, in reality it is this very simple principle which creates the machine we all trade - biased opinions.

Fractal or not fractal, orders move markets. Not price, not ta, not fa....ORDERS. And when these orders cluster (be it at london open, or ta levels of 'aligned' opinions)....one will win and one will lose.

Most people chase tails (and argue crap) instead of front running them (watching the blood splatter on the walls).

But who am i to say?...meh.
  • #592
  • Edited 3:27pm Jun 30, 2014 3:57am | Edited 3:27pm
Quoting numbnuts
{quote} Maybe there are specific strategies which work across all timeframes, but I'm not sure that disproves my belief. What I think would disprove the belief in fractal markets, is the existence of strategies that work on some timeframes but not on others. .......
I think there are obvious reasons why the market can’t be perfectly fractal. For example, red news spikes and weekend gaps can potentially cause havoc with (say) M1/M5 approaches (some scalpers deliberately avoid news), while they’re barely observable on monthly charts. Also session considerations: my Sydney based buddy was able to demonstrate small but statistically valid variations occurring at different times of the day. And I can’t prove this, but I suspect that longer TFs involve a greater cross section of participants, and therefore a higher degree of collective averaging. Then we have different players operating at various levels: for example, central banks acting strategically across longer timeframes, and some algorithmic and HFT operating on shorter TFs — to whatever extent their objectives differ, this could create an uneven effect.

I’m familiar with the theory that price moves as waves within waves, but am not yet convinced that waves align themselves perfectly with actual timeframes. There would need to be a high consensus among technical traders, in terms of their use of tools like candle patterns, to create such alignment. Of course not all market participants are technical traders.

Longer TF S/R is visible across a greater number of chart TFs than shorter TF S/R.

On the other hand, however, the fractal nature is well supported by evidence that some indicator based systems work profitably on multiple TFs. And we have the idea that human psychology and behavior is consistent, irrespective of a trading strategy.

So I’ll be diplomatic and won’t try to argue a definite case either way.
But I wouldn’t be brave enough to randomly select an EA that’s proven profitable on (say) a weekly chart, and then automatically expect it to deliver a similar profit factor on a 5 minute chart.

I’ll disappear now, and let the thread return to its original topic.
  • #593
  • Jun 30, 2014 11:48am Jun 30, 2014 11:48am
Quoting hanover
{quote} Rscr, I'm a retired investor, and I've tinkered with forex with mixed success since 2006. I've found forex to be the most complex market to analyze and trade (some comparisons between stocks and forex here). Having said that, I regularly correspond with a number of forex traders, a few of whom are very successful. However, I doubt that many genuine pros are likely to share their methods on forums like this one (and the few that do are occasionally chased away by...
Hanover,

Thank you for your comments and suggestions. I am a retired Real Estate Investor Developer retired to Costa Rica. During the past 18 years in CR I was able to successfully complete several projects with substantial returns for my investors. Yes, the bursting of the RE bubble in 2007-2008 took its toll and to this day numerous projects sit unfinished here. Today, RE opportunities are difficult to find and therefore alternative investments such as Forex etc. look attractive, especially for those with risk capital seeking better than bank rate returns. But of course a successful game plan/strategy is necessary and I agree with you 10% risk per trade is to high. Forex is attractive but the FX jungle is filled with snakes offering courses, systems, indicators etc., etc.. At the same time there are people like yourself, that are helpful in providing guidance.

On reflection I wish that I had joined this forum at the time I first started my Due Diligence, but there-again, better late than never. I fully realize that to build a house you need not first study to be an engineer, finding one is enough, but there-again, unless you have at least the basic knowledge, how will you know that you how found a good one? AS of now that is my goal and I believe I can make it attractive to the right person/s.
  • #594
  • Jun 30, 2014 2:16pm Jun 30, 2014 2:16pm
Quoting rscr
how will you know that you how found a good one?
For an equity fund manager you need about 175 years track record, so for an FX trader I would think that 25 years would be sufficient.
  • #595
  • Jun 30, 2014 2:43pm Jun 30, 2014 2:43pm
Quoting Pipalicious
I think most get distracted with petty arguments and spoil threads that had something interesting building here. Having said that, in reality it is this very simple principle which creates the machine we all trade - biased opinions. Fractal or not fractal, orders move markets. Not price, not ta, not fa....ORDERS. And when these orders cluster (be it at london open, or ta levels of 'aligned' opinions)....one will win and one will lose. Most people chase tails (and argue crap) instead of front running them (watching the blood splatter on the walls)....
+1 matey.
Liquidity providers run the show.They provide, then they hunt.
Rgds
  • #596
  • Jun 30, 2014 2:44pm Jun 30, 2014 2:44pm
Quoting euclid
{quote} For an equity fund manager you need about 175 years track record, so for an FX trader I would think that 25 years would be sufficient.
Yes that is the question. Lets start with verifiable past performance records.
  • #597
  • Jun 30, 2014 3:27pm Jun 30, 2014 3:27pm
Quoting Pipalicious
I think most get distracted with petty arguments and spoil threads that had something interesting building here. Having said that, in reality it is this very simple principle which creates the machine we all trade - biased opinions. Fractal or not fractal, orders move markets. Not price, not ta, not fa....ORDERS. And when these orders cluster (be it at london open, or ta levels of 'aligned' opinions)....one will win and one will lose. Most people chase tails (and argue crap) instead of front running them (watching the blood splatter on the walls)....

It's true, but 90 percent of traders don't want to know or care about this. And it's about the same number of them that fail go figure.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #598
  • Jun 30, 2014 10:27pm Jun 30, 2014 10:27pm
Quoting saneblane
{quote} You have no idea how true that is. I put it to you that the market as we know it is actually not live, Price itself lags at times even more times than others, why is this? I have no idea, my best guess is when the market is still busy filling the previous orders that come in, but the fact of the lag itself is what I care about and it is these situations that a trader must try to find and exploit. But if you look at it from the point of a movie and a script or a piece of written music,then the market just replays...
This interests me,ive tried to make sense at the way price hangs at certain moments,its as though it recalibrates across the whole market.im sure this is to iron out any advantages .I also believe the price is lagged enough to secure this anomaly .I think your correct its not live.if it was live we would see closer to the orders being transacted in real time and the over all effect on related pairs.
but as you have suggested this is not as efficient as the powers that be would like and offers advantage on occasion to us.
  • #599
  • Jun 30, 2014 10:41pm Jun 30, 2014 10:41pm
Quoting diceman555
but as you have suggested this is not as efficient as the powers that be would like and offers advantage on occasion to us.

Dice..I like you, dude...not in one of those manly kind of likes, but more so as you are one of the people that actually apply yourself and are eagerly learning....

So, really, let's see if I can lend a little perspective here.

Your broker, doesn't know who you are. Nor, where you actually live, how much money you have in your bank account and definitely no idea of the bills you have to pay...

What they do know is...the failure rate of traders in the forex market.

They don't need to conspire against traders...it'd be like Vegas dealers conspiring against the players. The house always wins, why would they need to tip odds in their favor....

More importantly, as you have suggested, why would they shell out a bone?

Look at the collapse of the economy and stock markets, globally. Sure there are some that still made money, but a lot more lost. Read through the FF news and see how "Traders" are struggling because of liquidity....poor fellas....

What you may see in lag, could be that exact thing. LAG. Nothing more than a latency between your terminal and broker.

The internet isn't what we could call perfect by way of stream, I can lend you a couple of sites that will crush you on lag alone...K...they are pr0n sites, but who wants to get close to climax and be stopped cold on a few bad packets?

If you think that a broker or any service is offering you a great deal, keep in mind how these have ALL turned out in past. Maybe a few winners...most likely a lot of followers on the same bread crumbs....but the inevitability doesn't change the overall stats of market.

The deck is stacked, dude.

Nobody is going to offer you anymore longevity than you can lend yourself.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #600
  • Jun 30, 2014 11:12pm Jun 30, 2014 11:12pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Dice..I like you, dude...not in one of those manly kind of likes, but more so as you are one of the people that actually apply yourself and are eagerly learning.... So, really, let's see if I can lend a little perspective here. Your broker, doesn't know who you are. Nor, where you actually live, how much money you have in your bank account and definitely no idea of the bills you have to pay... What they do know is...the failure rate of traders in the forex market. They don't need to conspire against traders...it'd be like Vegas dealers conspiring...


we have all been there ,

yes it may well be the stream ,its certainly not perfect.its the cause and effect that interests me ,a large transaction on one pair ,and the effect on related pairs.during these periods it seems as though the quotes hang whilst the overall market calibrates to feed us the new quotes
.maybe to many james bond movies.

I don't suggest my broker is adjusting the speed of our feeds ,I believe the way the overall system is set up tries to eliminate any advantage from the cause and effect.
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