Fugazi - Order Flow hot data

More Orderflow
04:34 06/26USDJPY- s/t stops above 101.85, some bids 101.60 but really nice stops ‘just unda’
04:20 06/26GBPUSD- doing the wiggle ahead of BoE event, stops intact above 1.7005 and building below 1.6950
04:15 06/26EURUSD- clears short term stops below 1.3625, some bids seen ahead of 1.3600, stops below 1.3595 and again below 80

AUDUSD- offers 0.9420/25 with stops above 30. Larger offers 0.9430, stops above 0.9445

June 26 EUR/USD trading on Thursday was largely a reaction to EUR/GBP moves with selling was noted around London fixes at 8/9GMT. There was further selling of the cross after the UK's FPC announced plans to cap some mortgage lending. Aside from the cross trades EUR/USD flows were very small. Macro funds said to have more interest to sell rallies from 1.3650. Fast money names said long EUR after yesterday's weak US GDP data. Interestingly though US/Bund spreads are wider, 10's almost 130bp, suggesting that EUR/USD could come back under pressure. Masses of 1.3600-50 expiries are very likely to contain trade again today.

Order Flow

order flow

audusd, nzdusd, usdcad orderflow

AudUsd- Downside risks are mounting
Australian dollars bears - including ourselves – have been frustrated by the currency's
recent strength, but we stick to our view that AUDUSD downside from here is the path of least resistance. Scanning the horizon, we find the coming holiday-shortened week holds enough event risk to potentially kickstart another bout of currency weakness.

EURUSD small stops above 1.3400, larger stops 1.3650 and strong offers 1.3660/65 with stops above 1.3675

GBPUSD- weak stops 1.7020, bids ahead of 1.7000, stops below lead to bids 1.6980

USDJPY- testing 101.30, stops below lead to offers ahead of 101.00, and major stops seen 100.80/70. N225 closed –1.39%, US10yr testing 2.51%… Ruh Roh!

GBPUSD- clears noted weak stops and back to 1.7027 following UK GDP release

order board levels for eurusd, usdjpy, gbpusd

Take your weekend seriously. Check the order flow! The Swissquote Boyz know!

I didn't eat any corn! COT: what does it all mean Basel?

UBS FX Morning Adviser- Japan's Inflation Outlook

order flow on the order board

The Black Report: EURUSD Analysis and Trade Plan 6.30.2014 by Black
Overview________________________________________
Since Uncle Mario’s jawbone, Fiber has fallen from 1.3990 to find support around 1.3600. Not that far imho. Following the ECB IR and Policy Decision in June ’14, Fiber tested 1.3500 and now again is above 1.3600 at 1.3645. Given that price action, we will have a bias towards ‘what does not go down, will go up’, barring any significant talk or action from the ECB or the FED. This is what many term as ‘EUR resilience’ in the face of seeming pressures to the downside.
Risk Events________________________________________
2am German Retail Sales, 4am EUR Money Supply, and the biggie 5am CPI Flash Estimate.
Trade Plan________________________________________
Looking for a pullback to enter LONG defined by:
 assessed on hourly touch or close
 in the 1.3635/20 zone
 followed by a second hourly inside bar OR
 break of the previous hourly high
 no news pending within 1 hr
 SL 5 pip below session low
 TP 1.3655
_________________________________________________

ORDERFLOW GAME PLAN June 30th 2014

Planning the week ahead

by JupaFX

In this weekly report, we will try to direct our attention to the currency pairs and assets that are most likely to offer trading opportunities during the comming week, based on a combination of sentiment, orderflow and price action analysis.

1. On the docket for this week

Taking a glance at our calendar we can notice the more important news events for the week. For the coming week starting June 30th 2014, the main events are:

Monday: GER Retail Sales, EU CPI, CAD Gdp, US Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales (bullish expectations)

Tuesday: Canada Day, AU AIG Manuf. Index, JPN Tankan report, CNY Manuf. PMI + HSBC Manuf. PMI, RBA Decision, GER Unemployment + Markit Manuf. PMI (bullish espectations), EU Markit Manuf. PMI (bullish expectations), UK Markit Manuf. PMI (bullish expectations), US Markit Manuf. PMI + ISM Manuf. Pmi + Construction Spending

Wednesday: AUD Trade Balance, EU PPI (bearish expectations), US ADP + Factory Orders

Thursday: AUD AiG Services Index + Retail Sales, CNY Non-Manuf. PMI, GER Markit Services + Composite PMI, EU Markit Services + Composite PMI, UK Official Reserves Change + Markit Services + Composite PMI, EUR Retail Sales + ECB Decision, CAD International Merchandise Trade (bearish expectations), US Trade Balance + NFP + Avg. Hourly Earnings + ISM Non-Manuf.

Friday: US Independence Day, GER Factory Orders

2. Strong vs. Weak
Looking at the CME FX futures market, we can see that:
- DXY has closed last week in quite a bearish manner. Further downside is possible and we are seeing this move affect the basket.
- Cad has a bullish bias
- Eur has a bullish bias
- Nzd has a bullish bias
So if we combine and filter the most evident FX pairs to analyze, we come up with:
1) NzdUsd long bias
2) UsdCad short bias
3) EurUsd long bias

3. Sentiment Analysis on relevant assets
With a few of the main European teams out of the FIFA World Cup (England, Italy, Spain), traders overseeing their desks might actually pay more attention to the market. In other news, Canada is celebrating Canada Day on July 1st and the US is celebrating Independence day on June 4th so remember that NFP this week will be issued on Thursday (together with the ECB's meeting). So Thursday will definitely be exciting. Before that, on Wednesday, Yellen is scheduled to speak on financial stability and central banking at an International Monetary Fund conference in Washington – so that should be interesting. All this QE we've seen since 2008 has had the objective of creating inflation, but the only place we've seen inflation is in asset prices (stocks and bonds). It's hard to create endogenous inflation when unemployment is high and growth is low. Central Banks like to speak of the ways they attempt to avoid bubbbles, when they have created quite the bubble themselves.The main geo-political risk remains Iraq. Other geopolitical risks have been pushed to the sidelines, though they remain a source of lingering uncertainty and potentially an additional drag on global growth. The European-leaning Ukraine is attempting to defuse tensions with Russia over its eastern borders. Despite all this, FX volatility remains quite subdued – as does the VIX.

USD: sentiment is turning negative. It's not a very strong bias yet, but big disappointments in GDP (especially the downwards revision) and a steep decline in durable goods have raised concerns about the strength of the US recovery. The expectations for future rate hikes have been pushed slightly further out into the future, keeping a cap on the greenback, and ten year Treasury yields dropped more than 10bp from last week's high.

Euro: sentiment is negative. Nothing has changed in the EU, but the downwards move needs a new driver in order to continue. The most important event risk for the Euro this week will be Thursday's ECB meeting: the tone of Draghi's press conference could decide whether we hit 1.37 or reverse back to 1.35. The consensus is for Draghi to reinforce the central bank's dovishness and make it clear they are ready to increase stimulus if inflation or economic activity refuse to rise. A dovish tone would cap gains in the euro.

Cad: sentiment is positive. Much of this week should be marked by thin volumes on the Looney as Canadian markets will be closed on Canada Day and are dead quiet on US Independence Day. The Canadian economy has had a mixed performance during the second quarter, so only expect modest growth from the GDP print. Recent Cad strength is probably due to the uprise in Crude and various pipeline concessions recently established. As a canuck, I need to emphasize something: Canada Day marks the 147th anniversary of the birth of Canada as we know it today, when the British North America Act of July 1st 1867 joined Nova Scotia, Ontario, Quebec and New Brunswick. Other provinces joined later with Newfoundland being the last to enter Confederation in 1949.

Nzd: sentiment is positive. The Kiwi rose to its strongest level since August 2011 on the back of better than expected trade numbers, which validates the RBNZ's hawkish bias. Although the country's trade surplus shrank to $285 million from a downwardly revised $498 million, the dip was less than expected and more importantly, the export balance exceeded expectations which is surprising given the recent decline in dairy prices. Dairy demand remains strong with rising volumes offsetting the decline in prices.

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