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Looking for Real Trading Method

  • #561
  • Jun 29, 2014 10:54am Jun 29, 2014 10:54am
Quoting jmn5611
a timeframe, and stick with that.
Good points but that's where most go wrong imo
like totally failure brah
  • #562
  • Jun 29, 2014 10:55am Jun 29, 2014 10:55am
Quoting jmn5611
I have checked in to this thread, not knowing where I can contribute because it became a pissing match, and anything I say would be taken as choosing a side. About EA's Markets are fractal. If we can agree on that, trading an EA on M1 can give you structural data that you can't get any other way without a tremendous time commitment. Think about it. 1440 M1 bars is one day. On a daily chart that is 4 years. All an EA on M1 is doing is compressing the data to give you the chance to see if a concept has legs. You can forward test and rule out ideas...
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #563
  • Jun 29, 2014 11:03am Jun 29, 2014 11:03am
Quoting thodie
{quote} you have choosen the ""right"" side but i donīt agree that entries are irrelevant at least not on a grid system if martingale or not. When you look at some backtestkings like the cyberia trader, high leveraged for 2pip TP and 30pip SL, slippage and possible requotes not included, that canīt work in real market environment. When you are looking for 150pip you donīt give a fuck if there is a 3pip slippage on the longer run
Irrelevant was a bad word. I meant that as long as the entries are "logical".

Full disclosure. I do own some of Magix's EAs. Trading on grid is a "logical" way to get into entries. What I did not see is discussion on how those EAs manage DD. That is what makes them winners in my humble opinion. When the EA gets it wrong how does it manage that? I think that is the true linchpin of a real trading method.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #564
  • Jun 29, 2014 11:08am Jun 29, 2014 11:08am
Quoting simonb
{quote} Ok Thodie, but my main statement was simply that demo is demo. Real is real, the spreads are definetly one elements though. I've had the ask on low spread pairs widen 15 pips in the Asian session just to stop me out and reverse back in my direction. You can't see that on a price chart because it tracks the bid. I won't pretend to know more about your trading than you so that's all I'm gonna say {quote} Why not? I think I'm done with this thread, it's been fun but reached that point of no return L
answer is pretty simple, no fixed SL or TP exit on a countertrigger if you are in loss or profit, when the trigger is sufficient* youīll be fine. And its much more precise. But i agree very difficult while you are sleeping during asia session.

*And thats what an self coded EA even on demo can told you.
just do it
  • #565
  • Jun 29, 2014 11:08am Jun 29, 2014 11:08am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} mate if you think algo's are plugged in and left to do their thing, with no human intervention then you're more stupid than your wife said you were, grow up chump!
First off...
The wife thing, hey??

I must have hit a nerve with you here, must be the reason you are so delicate.

Well, Peaches...

Maybe you just aren't cut out for conversations over the Internet if you have such a soft underbelly and make for this easy of a target. Your problem, not mine.

But, lets move on here and keep with the Convo that you still know nothing about.

Your first error here is stating that I have said something and rebutted it. What post did I state that all "algos", are left unattended? Just because I stated that I have proof that some of the code I have written has traded for months with a high wining ratio, doesn't mean that I would claim to openly know the strategy of all trade software. The point there was to prove that fundamentals aren't a requirement of having an edge. Sadly, because of your sensitivity, you've missed the point because you are more concerned with defending yourself than actually being able to mount a suitable reply.

Poor little you.

Here's the thing and it has been stated before...you spend more time studying why things shouldn't work than do on analyzing what does and when it does. This will always keep you having the same worthless replies. The thread isn't about finding what others say, can't be done. It is about finding what can be.

Inside of all of the majority of my posts, if you bothered to take the time to realize, I have been keeping with this same theme. It is yours, Cindy's and kuats posts that have hidden this.

Take your lack of knowledge and instead of trying to win a game you cannot, and form questions that will lead to your understanding. Now that we've opened the doors on your contradiction that edges require fundamentals, your ignorance is just going to further spiral out of control and detract from the thread and the true spirit of the conversation.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #566
  • Jun 29, 2014 11:09am Jun 29, 2014 11:09am
Quoting simonb
{quote} Good points but that's where most go wrong imo
It's too bad that you have decided to leave simonb. I was wondering how most go wrong with timeframes? I am aware that candle are an artificial construct. But then we get into point and figure charts and market profile and auction market theory.

Most people do not engage in eliminating the time factor because it is too difficult to build a life outside of trading is what I have found.

At any rate, I hope you don't bow out of the arena of ideas. It is an arena, it requires a thick skin.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #567
  • Jun 29, 2014 11:19am Jun 29, 2014 11:19am
Quoting Magix
{quote} First off... The wife thing, hey?? I must have hit a nerve with you here, must be the reason you are so delicate. Well, Peaches... Maybe you just aren't cut out for conversations over the Internet if you have such a soft underbelly and make for this easy of a target. Your problem, not mine. But, lets move on here and keep with the Congo that you still know nothing about. Your first error here is stating that I have said something and rebutted it. What post did I state that all "algos", are left unattended? Just because I stated that I have...
are you still at the stage where you think trading is all about win rate, jeez you're a slow learner
tradewith60
  • #568
  • Jun 29, 2014 11:21am Jun 29, 2014 11:21am
Quoting simonb
{quote} Ok Thodie, but my main statement was simply that demo is demo. Real is real, the spreads are definetly one elements though. I've had the ask on low spread pairs widen 15 pips in the Asian session just to stop me out and reverse back in my direction. You can't see that on a price chart because it tracks the bid. I won't pretend to know more about your trading than you so that's all I'm gonna say {quote} Why not? I think I'm done with this thread, it's been fun but reached that point of no return L
One aspect of a real trading method is to keep hard stops out of the market.............
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #569
  • Jun 29, 2014 11:23am Jun 29, 2014 11:23am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} are you still at the stage where you think trading is all about win rate, jeez you're a slow learner
Again...

You make a point, putting words into my mouth, for only the sake of rebuttal...

Go back and read again...and again, and again...

Why do you insist on coming to this gun fight, holding a banana?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #570
  • Jun 29, 2014 11:25am Jun 29, 2014 11:25am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} are you still at the stage where you think trading is all about win rate, jeez you're a slow learner
I think a relevant question to ask is why the win rate is so high?

Just trying to foster solid discussion.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #571
  • Jun 29, 2014 11:27am Jun 29, 2014 11:27am
Quoting diceman555
{quote} Yes its been somtime,we get so rapped up in our world of trading weeks seem to fly bye. I like to study the price structure on very small t/f ,s .its fascinating watching the the structure unfold ,you can see the waves being created,it has a clear structure,the way price in a up move produces a new high and the way it exhausts and falls to higher low,but it leaves tell tale signs of firstly it exhaustion point which was created from the previous swing high and a tell tale sign as it gains momentum to create a new high.im not...
As do I and I agree. Recently I've been really into tick charts. Well, actually I've always been interested in them it's just recently I found a way to get them in my MT4 platform. At this point I really feel the study of PA "structure" is easier (maybe clearer is a better word), with them because the data remains constant for each bar.

As we all know the data from a retail broker is far from accurate in the market as a whole but, since it's the same data I get to trade a time based chart with, the difference between tick and time is seeable and thus just as valid for study IMHO. If each bar (regardless of TF) is in fact a battle between the bulls and bears (I think it is) then having that data be even shows a better picture of who won each little battle in the overall war. I am very new to this (just a couple weeks now) but already I begin to see patterns that allow me to gauge the outcome of price direction better.

An edge or a tradable oddity yet? I honestly can't say but it shows very good promise as of now.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #572
  • Jun 29, 2014 11:31am Jun 29, 2014 11:31am
Quoting albchr
{quote} As do I and I agree. Recently I've been really into tick charts. Well, actually I've always been interested in them it's just recently I found a way to get them in my MT4 platform. At this point I really feel the study of PA "structure" is easier (maybe clearer is a better word), with them because the data remains constant for each bar. As we all know the data from a retail broker is far from accurate in the market as a whole but, since it's the same data I get to trade a time based chart with, the difference between tick and time is seeable...
I have nothing but terrible things about MT4 and their tick charts. How have you managed to overcome the gaps in data?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #573
  • Jun 29, 2014 11:32am Jun 29, 2014 11:32am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Again... You make a point, putting words into my mouth, for only the sake of rebuttal... Go back and read again...and again, and again... Why do you insist on coming to this gun fight, holding a banana?
no, you go back and read again... you're the one getting upset first and throwing the insults because I questioned the reliability of TA to predict the future price movements. it's on page 8 chump. Up till your arrival on the scene this thread had some value and you, as it appears is often the case, have ruined a thread with your stunted intellect. Go draw some lines on a chart please!
tradewith60
  • #574
  • Jun 29, 2014 11:41am Jun 29, 2014 11:41am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I have nothing but terrible things about MT4 and their tick charts. How have you managed to overcome the gaps in data?
I honestly can't say I have. But if there are gaps (I really don't know so I take your word on this. Of all platforms, MT4 is the retail slot machine I hear), then those gaps would exist in the data whether displaying time based or tick based bars...no?

LOL... you have me curious now. Yet another variable to consider?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #575
  • Jun 29, 2014 11:43am Jun 29, 2014 11:43am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} no, you go back and read again..
Quoting 60minuteman
I am still standing by my statement that these technical studies (with the absence of any fundamental studies) have no proven statistical edge.
HERE
HERE
HERE

I know exactly what you've said...you are the one trying to skate on your own words.

Again, You have been proven WRONG.
Are now Contradicting your own statements.
And continue to put words into my mouth for only the sake of rebuttal.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #576
  • Jun 29, 2014 11:46am Jun 29, 2014 11:46am
Quoting albchr
{quote} I honestly can't say I have. But if there are gaps (I really don't know so I take your word on this), then those gaps would exist in the data whether displaying time based or tick based bars...no? LOL... you have me curious now. Yet another variable to consider?
I was warned away from tick analysis awhile back. When I did look at the data, the granularity got really bad the further back you went. It is less bad as you go up the TFs. It was so long ago( which could be only weeks in my ADD mind) that I don't remember the details. Just be careful about data gaps. At that granularity, 10 minutes of bad data will significantly influence your results.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #577
  • Jun 29, 2014 11:59am Jun 29, 2014 11:59am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I was warned away from tick analysis awhile back. When I did look at the data, the granularity got really bad the further back you went. It is less bad as you go up the TFs. It was so long ago( which could be only weeks in my ADD mind) that I don't remember the details. Just be careful about data gaps. At that granularity, 10 minutes of bad data will significantly influence your results.
I will take it into consideration. Thank you Our exchange has given me an idea to test out though. I'm not studying the ticks per say. Just looking for a better visual representation of the bars. I guess much like renko maybe? Which I know very little to nothing about.

I've often tried to find the closest time based comparison to a 233 tick per bar chart. I could never do this "visually" as the data varies so much per bar in every TF. I have two indicators that are placed on a 1M. One collects and records the ticks, the other posts them to an offline 233 chart. When stacking the offline and any other TF chart together, the visual comparison is useless.

But If I were to add up a block of tick bars, say for example 10 bars = 2333 ticks, and then find the same number of ticks in a block of bars on say a 1M, 5M, 15M etc... that would give me the visual comparison. I shall be back!! ... LOL
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #578
  • Jun 29, 2014 5:10pm Jun 29, 2014 5:10pm
Newly on board so pardon me if this post is inappropriate. I have traded stocks & futures, on & off over the years but forex only 18 months. Having purchased a number of systems, indicators & enrolled in several pricey courses, all leading to only moderate/inconsistent results. I am therefore reevaluating my options. After browsing many of the posts herein, it is obvious that there are many well informed knowledgeable traders here, traders that should be able to answer a few basic questions;

a) Having seen many claims of annual returns on bankroll ranging from 5% - 2,000% is it realistic seek a strategy that can produce a consistent 10% monthly averaged over a 12 month period?

b) Am I barking up the wrong tree by looking for a signal service or trade room that has a track record of 10% monthly returns on account capital?

c) What is the best product to trade with a $50K account?

All comments will be most appreciated.
  • #579
  • Jun 29, 2014 6:55pm Jun 29, 2014 6:55pm
Hi Rscr,

Judging by your switching from stock & futures to forex I can only imagine it didn't go well for you. In my opinion trading stock should have "better result than forex"
due to "dividend". And it's more control meaning company news is easier to "control" than as oppose the the whole Euro nations random FAKE/Opinion news. In stock your company data should be fact there is no if and or but... So it's safe to say When a company release bad profit Q1... you should know that Q2 ain't going to be better. So selling stock should be easy as pie without "other intervention by the government". The only thing is with stock it's require you to have high capital to be able to make some sort of "income for a living".

Ofcourse this is about forex..not stock so I will answer your question.

Answer A) There are "some like 5-10 EA/manual live system" on myfxbook that show profit of around 20% each monthly consistently for 1-3 years...
But it's very hard to obtain a system like that... You have to create one with experience. If human can fly.... I am sure you can make 20% monthly consistently too.

Answer B) Yes you are barking up the wrong..tree. Stay away from ALL signal service. You don't know when they will be drinking... you can't trust your income on some signal service that one day can disappear. So it's best you make/buy a wining system yourself so you don't have to depend on drunk trader..

Answer C) I love forex because of leverage. Stock have 10:1. While at least in USA it's 50:1 leverage. So you can get the MOST out of your 50,000$ account.
You can play option but risk obviously high. Where as forex you can "micro manage your money to the cents level"


Tip D) I can see you are serious on forex since you actually enroll in course and buy system. I am not going to straight out tell you to "stop buying system" some of the one out there is actually good "like you say moderate , which mean not rich but good enough to pass by". But the main killer in forex to make people not success is your "psychology and greed". It's usually not the system. Just look at how many forex factory system "claim profitable by the author"... I don't see not even 1% claim they are rich..using it. Hell... even the author of the system is probably not in the millionaire range.


Tip E) Since you have 50,000$ i will give you a "REALISTIC expectation of what you should get if you are good in forex".
For each 10,000$ balance you SHOULD BE able to make around 800-1,000$ with a 10% risk...

Tip F) Alway remember if you can "lose 1,000$ easily that mean you can WIN 1,000$ EASILY " <-- this is very important.
So with that fact, you should be able to achieve 1,000$ a monthly with 10,000$ starting balance...

Tip G) you should start with 5,000$ balance... if you really don't know how stuff work... But if you already understand the "trend line and price action" you should start your account at 15,000$ ...... OR you can just play demo starting with 15,000$ and see how you do for 1 month!!
  • #580
  • Edited Jun 30, 2014 2:47am Jun 29, 2014 9:41pm | Edited Jun 30, 2014 2:47am
Quoting rscr
Newly on board so pardon me if this post is inappropriate....... All comments will be most appreciated.
Rscr,

I'm a retired investor, and I've tinkered with forex with mixed success since 2006. I've found forex to be the most complex market to analyze and trade (some comparisons between stocks and forex here). Having said that, I regularly correspond with a number of forex traders, a few of whom are very successful. However, I doubt that many genuine pros are likely to share their methods on forums like this one (and the few that do are occasionally chased away by hostile naysayers insisting that their claims are false and that they post proof of their performance).

Return is a function of risk. Pros (and money managers) tend to trade large accounts so that they can make worthwhile returns, while keeping risk low. In my view risking 10% per trade** (as the previous poster may have suggested) is way too high, unless your $50k account is 'play money' that you can easily afford to lose.

I recall reading somewhere that trading is not about making money, it is about correct decision making: if you make good decisions, profits will ensue as a matter of course; whereas if you chase money, you'll tend to make bad decisions. Hence if you're relatively new to forex I would suggest that you trade either demo or a very small account, while focusing on learning how and why price moves, and without the added problems of overleveraging yourself emotionally or performance-based stress; then gradually grow your trade sizes as your experience and confidence increases. I certainly wouldn't expect to be able to make consistent monthly returns right off the bat. As the saying goes, success is hard won in forex, but money is easily lost.

With the signal service, do they have a 30 day trial period? Either way, if it was my money, I'd try their signals in demo for maybe 3-6 months. Even though that means you'd be initially paying their subscription fees without any possibility of return, it's arguably better to risk merely the fees, than the fees plus a chunk of the $50k, right from the outset. As a newbie some time ago, I lost almost NZD 8,000 to a fund manager (he used to post as 'lostinspace' on FF), hence I'm naturally a bit more cautious now. I assume you're already aware that the forex industry has its share of snake oil salesmen.

Anyway, whatever path you take, good luck.

David

______________________________

[EDIT]
** There's a table in the link here that gives risk of ruin (ROR%) for various win and payoff rates (RR), at 10% VAR. (Thanks to 60minuteman for originally posting the link).
NOTE: I assume that the ROR% calculation is based on the assumption of an infinite number of trades. Obviously the ROR% is going to increase along with the number of trades, i.e. to be strictly correct, the stats should be framed something like "the trader has an X% risk of ruin within Y trades".
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