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Looking for Real Trading Method

  • #541
  • Jun 28, 2014 6:59pm Jun 28, 2014 6:59pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Well you are clearly no climate scientist. Anyway, I will tell you about Magix. He is a talented and successful trader who spends quite a bit of time helping others around here and elsewhere. You can't tell him his method does not work, when it does. Non-starter. If you would like to debate, I can assure you he loves a good debate. He is direct and a self-described a8shole, but I happen to think he is just no nonsense and funny. Much less harsh than the market. I think you might actually have...
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #542
  • Edited 3:07am Jun 29, 2014 2:50am | Edited 3:07am
Quoting Magix
{quote} {quote} {quote} All the smack talk by Kuat and his friends in high places and using EAs, we find this: {quote} Real quality posting there, Kuat. You can't trade live and think all others are the same. You've tested a single EA that is losing money, and can't figure out why we test these on demos, or how we've shown 400% gains in a month, automated! You are a valuable member of FF. A lot of others can learn from you...as you are the perfect example of what not to do in forums and forex.
sigh this demo-man is even more noob than i give him credit for..well since he brings up how valuable a member of FF he must be, i guess i must chime in a little so that the new ppl or new learners who wants to go the EA route have some understanding and pointers rather than bullshit from mr demo man... I was gonna ignore his post, but just cant stand him polluting minds out there..u remember the school bully, all noise no substance? thats our demo man MR Magix.. 10k post but 0 substance

1) Trading EA.
First of all there is no EA on the institution side. there can be automation, but these days institutions hire phds in math or physics to scrub data and to code and to automate. so if you dont have these credentials, its tough, as they deal with stats and other maths..not quantum stuff,but at least enough to get by. Most use C, matlab and other scripting language like perl or python.. but for connection to exchanges there are other low level languages to learn as well.

There are processes to follow for example, (these are not hard coded and differs a little from insto to insto)
A) you need to define your problem nd univers
b) then if it fundamentally makes sense, you get the data and code up to back test
c) then you can code for automation or trade manually following your model (there is a difference between model trading and automated trading, the former is done manually)
d) normally in the step above, you put in a sum of money. usually low % of your total portfolio to test out how slippage works out and if there are any kinks in the model
e) then you add more money if its a good model

Now where Mr Magix aka demo man fails.
2) mentality. trading demo all the way. Why dont you hear any fund house/hedge fund/ bank trade demo? if you have already done your research and back-testing and sanity test, this means statistically and fundamentally you as a trader/portfolio manager agrees to take on the risk offered by the model for the potential returns offered by it. Meaning it has to be of HIGH CONVICTION. who the fuck trades demo after doing all the process above? noobs that gamble and have no conviction..and also research ppl who cant trade for nuts (no offense but you need to have the right risk taking attitude and correct mentality which can only be gained when you are managing the trades/portfolio/book). also you can calculate what is your expected returns, std dev, sharpe ratio and draw down and draw period to see if the risk/reward suits you.

3) running a demo and a real live trading account even though a small one is VERY DIFFERENT. Things really change when you have skin in the game (where Mr demo man fails here again). Dont need much elaboration.. just try it out yourself

4) Again pls know that whilst the market offers you unlimited potential which can be very rewarding, it is also constantly changing, although some simple models do survive over time, just always keep thinking and learning. Never doubt that one day your model can fail, but if you know how and why, and what risks you are taking, you can cover the eventuality of these risk events and watch out for them before they happen.

I guess this will be my final post in this thread as i wish not to add more rubbish since there is already too many dumped by mr demo man..

so open your minds, keep learning (do not be like mr demo man ), be humble but never let an arsehole overstep at your expense.

Too much dmg in the world was done when good men keep quiet.

Cheeers

ps demo man : 400% model? lol next month -1000%?.. why dont you put $100 dollars into it run it.. get 400% returns and then talk.. On demo, too bad, in my books, only kids play demo..
  • #543
  • Jun 29, 2014 3:45am Jun 29, 2014 3:45am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Well you are clearly no climate scientist. Anyway, I will tell you about Magix. He is a talented and successful trader who spends quite a bit of time helping others around here and elsewhere. You can't tell him his method does not work, when it does. Non-starter. If you would like to debate, I can assure you he loves a good debate. He is direct and a self-described a8shole, but I happen to think he is just no nonsense and funny. Much less harsh than the market. I think you might actually have something to offer if you choose. Anyway,...
I am happy for you to have a good opinion of Magix and if he has helped you that is to be applauded. But one fact will remain true until it is disproved. His methods of technical analysis have never been proven to offer anything more than a coin toss offers, that is a fact. Now if he has found a way to use those techniques and be profitable then congratulations to him, But the facts remain the facts until disproven.

Secondly he cannot call any other technique stupid because it is entirely possible for any technique to be profitable. Remember it is not the majority that are profitable, so if you're doing what everyone else is doing you are unlikely to be in the profitable group.

If traders think that simple technical analysis offers a proven edge then it would of been exploited by algo's already and would most likely no longer work - trading is about risk control, it always has been and always will.
tradewith60
  • #544
  • Edited 4:14am Jun 29, 2014 3:52am | Edited 4:14am
Quoting Kuat
Trading EA. First of all there is no EA on the institution side. there can be automation, but these days institutions hire phds in math or physics to scrub data and to code and to automate. so if you dont have these credentials, its tough, as they deal with stats and other maths..not quantum stuff,but at least enough to get by. Most use C, matlab and other scripting language like perl or python.. but for connection to exchanges there are other low level languages to learn as well.
So, everybody should take the advice from somebody like yourself who:
a)doesn't understand programming language enough to code for the platform he trades.
b)borrows code and ideas from others
And most importantly
c)can't make it work past the point of consistent losses.

Quoting Kuat
A) you need to define your problem nd univers b) then if it fundamentally makes sense, you get the data and code up to back test c) then you can code for automation or trade manually following your model (there is a difference between model trading and automated trading, the former is done manually) d) normally in the step above, you put in a sum of money. usually low % of your total portfolio to test out how slippage works out and if there are any kinks in the model e) then you add more money if its a good model
What I work with are a predefined criteria based on standard market movements and not on calculations.

Whether you realize or not, all systems are fundamentally based on the same things. Identifying the current trend/direction, seeking a trade point based on that, and looking for an exit, be it profit or loss. This is trigger based dynamics and can be coded to any consistent/profitable trade system. I just happen to study the market under several optics and can throw these ideas into profitable systems.

Quoting Kuat
2) mentality. trading demo all the way. Why dont you hear any fund house/hedge fund/ bank trade demo? if you have already done your research and back-testing and sanity test, this means statistically and fundamentally you as a trader/portfolio manager agrees to take on the risk offered by the model for the potential returns offered by it. Meaning it has to be of HIGH CONVICTION. who the fuck trades demo after doing all the process above? noobs that gamble
Well noob, your Mentality should tell you that after you have done all of your research and launch your little EA in market and it loses money, your idea is shit and your studies are worthless.

Quoting Kuat
just spent some time check an FX model (my friend do one..quite interested to test so i just put some money run it)...this month theo profit published is 10%.. but i make -2%.. my slippage really bad.. seems market at time move too fast to catch..want put only stop orders..sometimes get hit and signal become non-signal..tough tough.. wonder how to capture..hmm..
You can't figure out why you have your ass handed to you after your back tests show success?


Quoting Kuat
3) running a demo and a real live trading account even though a small one is VERY DIFFERENT. Things really change when you have skin in the game (where Mr demo man fails here again). Dont need much elaboration.. just try it out yourself
I have tested demo to live on my EAs and happen to have found a broker that has almost identical returns live to demo...Sure there are a lot of brokers whose demo accounts are not a very close relation to live, but there are others where it is close enough to be called accurate. The problems you are speaking about, again relates to your limited exposure to automation and working with a piece of shit! I don't have slippage as an issue as my method of trading isn't during the spike highs/lows aren't volatility driven and aren't HFTs. They trade direction based on market movements...

So, Here is the kicker!!

You've spent zero time finding a broker worthy of testing, and wasted a lot of time working with back test data and wonder why your little EA is a total failure.


Quoting Kuat
4) Again pls know that whilst the market offers you unlimited potential which can be very rewarding, it is also constantly changing, although some simple models do survive over time, just always keep thinking and learning.
And here is the perfect example of why you continue to fail at manual trading...The market doesn't change, it plays by the same standard rules from session to the 24 hour day to the weekly cycles. What does change, is when these events occur...the market really only has 2 cycles, trend and consolidation and only has 2 directions, up and down...where is the change?

You would do well to have taken thodies advice on trying to learn, instead of posting this tripe...this just shows your outright market ignorance and arrogance.

Quoting Kuat
I guess this will be my final post in this thread as i wish not to add more rubbish since there is already too many dumped by mr demo man.. so open your minds, keep learning (do not be like mr demo man ), be humble but never let an arsehole overstep at your expense. Too much dmg in the world was done when good men keep quiet. Cheeers ps demo man : 400% model? lol next month -1000%?.. why dont you put $100 dollars into it run it.. get 400% returns and then talk.. On demo, too bad, in my books, only kids play demo..
I think we all know that you will continue to post here and it will be every bit as worthless as all of your input. Putting on the tough guy act and still unable to actually prove you have a live account or have even taken a single trade since your join date at FF.

So, when you actually know something, or can actually prove that trade, lemme know...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #545
  • Jun 29, 2014 4:09am Jun 29, 2014 4:09am
Quoting 60minuteman
But one fact will remain true until it is disproved. His methods of technical analysis have never been proven to offer anything more than a coin toss offers, that is a fact. Now if he has found a way to use those techniques and be profitable then congratulations to him, But the facts remain the facts until disproven.
Actually, I have proven this...I've posted the stats showing greater than a 50% edge in market based on a trade system. Why continue to beat this dead horse?

Quoting 60minuteman
Secondly he cannot call any other technique stupid because it is entirely possible for any technique to be profitable.
I didn't say other techniques are stupid...I say that people are stupid, or ignorant...I do this because I can actually back up the information I provide through the use of a technical analysis....

As for your limited abilities...

You insist that fundamentals are a requirement to gain an edge...this is an ignorant perspective, because you haven't a lick of statistical evidence to back you up on this...zero...zilch...nothing!!!

And you continue to state this in the face of evidence I can show on technical based EAs that don't read the news...

Quoting 60minuteman
If traders think that simple technical analysis offers a proven edge then it would of been exploited by algo's already and would most likely no longer work - trading is about risk control, it always has been and always will.
This is a standard reach for people that don't understand the market or trading software. And if you would have just thought about the statement and how moronic it actually is, you might have just left it out of your response.

In stating that you are aware of algos, you are taking a leap into realm of possibilities of them being used...because they are being used, they must at some level be successful or they wouldn't be used!! So, they either already work off of a technical analysis, or they aren't being used? Which is it??

Quoting 60minuteman
trading is about risk control, it always has been and always will.
Trading isn't about risk control. Trading is about consistency. Finding a trade methodology that will allow greater gains than losses.

You are so busy watching your risk, you are missing the idea of finding the reward.

Your entire post was filled with ignorance...why do you even bother?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #546
  • Jun 29, 2014 5:50am Jun 29, 2014 5:50am
Well it seems the debate can finally move on.

Like magix I also was surprised to see 60 minutes finally except that the proof is there by his admission that algos are trading successfully using technical analysis.
Kuat has also excepted this truth only he believes you need a phd to work out something that goes up and down.

So keeping with the theme of controversy ,I would like to ask a question regarding the threads that claim to know a secret ,or something in the market which they have discovered which they can exploit .does anybody believe this or actively using or searching for ?

regards
dice
  • #547
  • Jun 29, 2014 7:55am Jun 29, 2014 7:55am
Quoting diceman555
So keeping with the theme of controversy ,I would like to ask a question regarding the threads that claim to know a secret ,or something in the market which they have discovered which they can exploit .does anybody believe this or actively using or searching for ? regards dice
Hey Dice, long time since we spoke man

A great question. For me? The first and biggest Red Flag is the word "secret". If it's a secret, why do they come to an open, international forum to say so?? ...lol

Do they intend to "let the cat out of the bag" at some point? ... Is it a method of attention getting for some sort of investment? You know, invest capital for me to trade or "buy my secret system" type thing. As for does anybody believe them? I can only speak for me but my eyes glaze over at the word secret and I never look back.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #548
  • Jun 29, 2014 8:59am Jun 29, 2014 8:59am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Hey Dice, long time since we spoke man A great question. For me? The first and biggest Red Flag is the word "secret". If it's a secret, why do they come to an open, international forum to say so?? ...lol Do they intend to "let the cat out of the bag" at some point? ... Is it a method of attention getting for some sort of investment? You know, invest capital for me to trade or "buy my secret system" type thing. As for does anybody believe them? I can only speak for me but my eyes glaze over at the word secret and I...
Yes its been somtime,we get so rapped up in our world of trading weeks seem to fly bye.
Yes the word secret is probably badly chosen, although its used often.
Ok ill put it another way,has any body discovered an oddity within the price structure that has lead them to a edge,
I like to study the price structure on very small t/f ,s .its fascinating watching the the structure unfold ,you can see the waves being created,it has a clear structure,the way price in a up move produces a new high and the way it exhausts and falls to higher low,but it leaves tell tale signs of firstly it exhaustion point which was created from the previous swing high and a tell tale sign as it gains momentum to create a new high.im not sure theres a tradable edge within it but non the less its quite fascinating to watch,im sure others have found exploitable signs from such study.

so im quite curious if anybody has found anything tradable from oddities in price
  • #549
  • Jun 29, 2014 9:36am Jun 29, 2014 9:36am
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} ppl in glass houses? - don't think I've ever seen so many grammatical errors in 2 sentences lol
ooh the irony
tradewith60
  • #550
  • Jun 29, 2014 9:44am Jun 29, 2014 9:44am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Actually, I have proven this...I've posted the stats showing greater than a 50% edge in market based on a trade system. Why continue to beat this dead horse? {quote} I didn't say other techniques are stupid...I say that people are stupid, or ignorant...I do this because I can actually back up the information I provide through the use of a technical analysis.... As for your limited abilities... You insist that fundamentals are a requirement to gain an edge...this is an ignorant perspective, because you haven't a lick of statistical evidence...
mate if you think algo's are plugged in and left to do their thing, with no human intervention then you're more stupid than your wife said you were, grow up chump!
tradewith60
  • #551
  • Edited 10:06am Jun 29, 2014 9:53am | Edited 10:06am
Quoting diceman555
Well it seems the debate can finally move on. Like magix I also was surprised to see 60 minutes finally except that the proof is there by his admission that algos are trading successfully using technical analysis. Kuat has also excepted this truth only he believes you need a phd to work out something that goes up and down. So keeping with the theme of controversy ,I would like to ask a question regarding the threads that claim to know a secret ,or something in the market which they have discovered which they can exploit .does anybody believe this...
Just because technical analysis has no scientific edge it does not mean it can not be used to trade profitably , but you must be aware of it's limitations. All algo traders I have listened too said their algo's needed constant tweaking and nearly always required a human to give it the bias, either daily or weekly. Real edges are quickly discovered by other algo traders and quickly become useless. This is what I have been told and seems logical to me.

As for discovering secrets - pure illusion, anyone who has spent any time studying the mind will know that it is a perfectly normal human reaction to uncertainty. If you know for sure BOE are going to increase interest rates in July, then that is real.

Inserted Video
tradewith60
  • #552
  • Jun 29, 2014 10:11am Jun 29, 2014 10:11am
i guess we demotraders do something wrong hm?

just look at the profitfactor....
EA exit on countertrigger, not fixed TP no fixed SL...

an account funded with 1000$ and 0.01 startlot would make round about 650% in that period with 14% DD.
not curvefitted
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EA.PNG Size: 47 KB
just do it
  • #553
  • Jun 29, 2014 10:17am Jun 29, 2014 10:17am
Actually your demo isn't an accurate representation of price (mainly the spreads widening)
Why demo? Just do it live then.

The main thing about demo is .. It's not real
like totally failure brah
  • #554
  • Jun 29, 2014 10:27am Jun 29, 2014 10:27am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Hey Dice, long time since we spoke man A great question. For me? The first and biggest Red Flag is the word "secret". If it's a secret, why do they come to an open, international forum to say so?? ...lol Do they intend to "let the cat out of the bag" at some point? ... Is it a method of attention getting for some sort of investment? You know, invest capital for me to trade or "buy my secret system" type thing. As for does anybody believe them? I can only speak for me but my eyes glaze over at the word secret and I...
Yep, I have always wondered that too. The whole I have a secret shtick is so third grade.

It is almost a guarantee that they are going to try to sell something.

Another one is the line: I can't tell you here, PM me for details. Twee should ban folks just for using that line.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #555
  • Jun 29, 2014 10:36am Jun 29, 2014 10:36am
Quoting simonb
Actually your demo isn't an accurate representation of price (mainly the spreads widening) Why demo? Just do it live then. The main thing about demo is .. It's not real
imho a spread widening of 20pipettes is no main factor in a 150pip pricerange.
Backtests are just to control the trigger / exitlogic, backtest even 99%tick is shitty because of shitty history data.

but ask yourself, when you cannot make profit in the warm and smooth demo environment, how could you on the "hard" real market

so imho your statment lacks, the main difference between demo and life is not the spread itīs the own psycology.
just do it
  • #556
  • Jun 29, 2014 10:41am Jun 29, 2014 10:41am
I have checked in to this thread, not knowing where I can contribute because it became a pissing match, and anything I say would be taken as choosing a side.

About EA's

Markets are fractal. If we can agree on that, trading an EA on M1 can give you structural data that you can't get any other way without a tremendous time commitment. Think about it. 1440 M1 bars is one day. On a daily chart that is 4 years. All an EA on M1 is doing is compressing the data to give you the chance to see if a concept has legs. You can forward test and rule out ideas fast. I don't see how this is controversial.

Not picking on anyone in particular, but demo can teach an awful lot. No, it is not real, but if you set realistic parameters, then it can to a lot. Did you know that astronauts learn to fly and soldiers learn to drive tanks on "demo"? It is not about whether or not it is real, but how realistic the simulator is. Unless you are trading GBPZAR or something like that, a demo getting the spread not quite right is not going to impact a robust system.

Money management techniques can also be tested out very quickly.

Simply put, I do not know any complex operations that are not done on a simulator first.

Just my penny.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #557
  • Jun 29, 2014 10:46am Jun 29, 2014 10:46am
Back to looking for real trading method. I think that entries are pretty much irrelevant. Pick a way to enter the market, and a timeframe, and stick with that. I think how trades are managed are much much more important. A real trading method is about making entries that make sense, and then managing risk. There are a lot of ways to skin that particular cat.

Just sayin.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #558
  • Jun 29, 2014 10:49am Jun 29, 2014 10:49am
Quoting jmn5611
Back to looking for real trading method. I think that entries are pretty much irrelevant. Pick a way to enter the market, and a timeframe, and stick with that. I think how trades are managed are much much more important. A real trading method is about making entries that make sense, and then managing risk. There are a lot of ways to skin that particular cat. Just sayin.
Inserted Video
tradewith60
  • #559
  • Jun 29, 2014 10:53am Jun 29, 2014 10:53am
Quoting simonb
The main thing about demo is .. It's not real
You see? Now that's helpful! I just love this place as I everyday I learn something I had no idea about before.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #560
  • Jun 29, 2014 10:53am Jun 29, 2014 10:53am
Quoting jmn5611
About EA's Markets are fractal. If we can agree on that, trading an EA on M1 can give you structural data that you can't get any other way without a tremendous time commitment. Think about it. 1440 M1 bars is one day. On a daily chart that is 4 years. All an EA on M1 is doing is compressing the data to give you the chance to see if a concept has legs. You can forward test and rule out ideas fast. I don't see how this is controversial....
Just my penny.
you have choosen the ""right"" side

but i donīt agree that entries are irrelevant at least not on a grid system if martingale or not. When you look at some backtestkings like the cyberia trader, high leveraged for 2pip TP and 30pip SL, slippage and possible requotes not included, that canīt work in real market environment.
When you are looking for 150pip you donīt give a fuck if there is a 3pip slippage on the longer run
just do it
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