Anyone trade economic news releases successfully? | Forex Factory

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Anyone trade economic news releases successfully?

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 28, 2014 9:49am Jun 28, 2014 9:49am
Anyone trade economic news releases successfully?
  • #2
  • Jun 28, 2014 10:09am Jun 28, 2014 10:09am
I have in the past, depending on your definition of "successful". I was profitable overall - I'm not doing it now due to time considerations and the stress levels involved. It is very difficult. Most important thing is take into consideration the fundamental backdrop - the same news release hitting two different economic environments will have two very different results.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #3
  • Jun 28, 2014 10:15am Jun 28, 2014 10:15am
http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/ses...news-20140320/
tradewith60
  • #4
  • Jun 28, 2014 8:57pm Jun 28, 2014 8:57pm
To trade the economic news successfully you need to have a 4 year BS economic degree OR better a MASTER degree in Economic.

You think if it were simple as "ohhhh GDP -2.6 for usd" so result let's sell your whole house to sell USD surely you must win...

There are lot of factors and sometime news data that you "miss while you were sleeping". You have to read all the economic news and watch tv news....


The only benefit to master "News trading" is to "bet the whole farm like George Soros with NO Stoploss".

If you PLAN to master news trading just to "get small ice cream profit" you might as well focus on your "Money management" plan... It's less stress and get little profit...


One of the economic blog that I like to read is...:

http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/
  • #5
  • Jun 28, 2014 9:01pm Jun 28, 2014 9:01pm
Quoting victor_ray
To trade the economic news successfully you need to have a 4 year BS economic degree OR better a MASTER degree in Economic. You think if it were simple as "ohhhh GDP -2.6 for usd" so result let's sell your whole house to sell USD surely you must win... There are lot of factors and sometime news data that you "miss while you were sleeping". You have to read all the economic news and watch tv news.... The only benefit to master "News trading" is to "bet the whole farm like George Soros with NO Stoploss". If...
i do not think so if we have degree economic we trade the news successfully....because actually the news impact is nondirectional bias when the result come.....hehhee
Bismillah
  • #6
  • Edited 9:37pm Jun 28, 2014 9:22pm | Edited 9:37pm
Warrent Buffet does pretty well in his "investing" field utilizing the knowledge he gain with his "Master of Science in economics" Degree....

“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.” - Warren Buffett

It's obviously Warrent Buffet bet a huge farm like George Soros too, but Warrent Buffet is successful because he is able to "analyze the economy" for the next 10 years.


But I highly doubt that if you have a Master Economic Degree you would lose, since you already know the future. Remember Recession doesn't happen just because one day news release USD GDP -2.6!! But with a Master Economic Degree you should be able to logically project "when will the recession / bubble happen and how many years will it take to recover to normal ".

I wonder who remember when the world was saying: "GOLD will HIT 2000 !!! " Majority was buying gold around 1600 to 1920...
If only they know the "timing of the WORLD is not in recession anymore" They wouldn't have get trap....

Incase some people here are clueless on why Gold have to do with fundamental. During 2008 Market crash it start the recession fear and people "can't trust money anymore so they CONVERT money to GOLD " That's why Gold was high as 1950... But since the world is FINE NOW... there is no need to "keep gold"
So the big banks...just Sell their gold for Currency..." If you don't understand fundamental economic you can't get rich fast betting the farm sell gold with the big shark...

Just a gold article people should read:

http://goldinvestingnews.com/39414/w...k-in-2014.html
  • #7
  • Jul 1, 2014 11:19am Jul 1, 2014 11:19am
This guy; http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCcnrfjcqqxoVdbasgeQc_6w

His track record according to Barclays hedge ;
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Jarratt-Ranking-ending-Dec-2013-NEW.pdf   213 KB | 875 downloads
I see it all in between ...
  • #8
  • Jul 2, 2014 8:43pm Jul 2, 2014 8:43pm
I took this trade because of Aussie Retail Sales. Let's see what happens.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud - 7.2.2014.png Size: 22 KB
  • #9
  • Jul 11, 2014 3:10pm Jul 11, 2014 3:10pm
Have to admit that im no guru @ fx, however having an econ degree has really come thru for me since most of my trades are fundametally based. I profit from fundamentals to cover loses from trading technicals which im currently tryna grasp, its been good but not as profitable..hey as long as iv not wiped out my a/c until my technical game is as good as its supposed to be
  • #10
  • Jul 11, 2014 5:59pm Jul 11, 2014 5:59pm
You cant trade profitably with just technical's. It may work for a while but then you end up giving everything back.
  • #11
  • Jul 11, 2014 6:07pm Jul 11, 2014 6:07pm
I don't but I'm starting an experimental thread next week on using data trends to predict the likely reaction the news will have, whatever number is posted .
like totally failure brah
  • #12
  • Jul 12, 2014 3:53am Jul 12, 2014 3:53am
Quoting pbylina
Anyone trade economic news releases successfully?
hi pbylina,its been along time since you dropped bye.

The problem with news release trading ,the initial movement often has no bearing on the positive or negative outcome from the numbers.personally i do somtimes trade news.but not the result of the news itself.im only interested in were the the pools of liquidity are ,price takes the route of least resisistence to the liquiditity,from that point the news release dictate the bias.

where is the liquidity ?

thats all this whole game is about.
  • #13
  • Jul 12, 2014 4:31am Jul 12, 2014 4:31am
Quoting simonb
I don't but I'm starting an experimental thread next week on using data trends to predict the likely reaction the news will have, whatever number is posted .
Good idea, since positive or negative news for a currency doesn't necessarilly dictate direction other factors come into play before movement is determined and for how long it can be sustained. the bad thing about fundamentals is that effect interpretation is relatively achievable only if comm. banks lack personal agendas since specuator volumes DONT DRIVE MARKETS
  • #14
  • Jul 12, 2014 8:59am Jul 12, 2014 8:59am
Yes Dice, Long time no see. There's not much here valuable.

In my honest opinion: Liquidity is usually at OLD highs.

To be honest. I have a news trading strategy but I wanted to see if someone had the same one too. But I should of known that no one will share it if they have it just like I won't.

I'm also interested in looking into data trends like simonb said.
  • #15
  • Jul 12, 2014 9:17am Jul 12, 2014 9:17am
I don't know if news reactions can be predicted by data trends or not, Simon's a smart cookie so I'll be following his thread with interest. A basic fundamental strategy is to pay attention to the words of central bankers, they usually tell you which economic indicators they are currently following, and trade in that direction against short term news flows.

For example, the Bank of England keeps saying it is keeping a close eye on the unemployment rate - so as long as unemployment is trending down, look to buy GBP. Whenever another indicator comes in low, such as worse than expected retail sales or manufacturing data, use the reaction to buy at the discounted price. Much easier said than done, but profitable in the long run
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #16
  • Jul 12, 2014 9:31am Jul 12, 2014 9:31am
i cant lie i have tried to trade news in the past multiple times and have never had success, if anything the opposite...maybe i dont understand exactly how to do it but it seems to be more complicated that buying or selling depending on the result of the news.

i have no experience in economics or schooling or degree, so maybe that plays a part in me not fully understanding how to trade the news or how it impacts the market and in what time frame.

even sometimes i notice that with technical analysis for example EURUSD would be at a critical resistance area and all technicals indicate resistance would most likely hold ...then later on what do you know, the resistance holds as i expected and eurusd drops and i may take a glance at a news release for fun and find that some news came out at a certain time which may have initiated the move, but what i notice is if i had depended on news release alone i probably still would have been unsuccessful in that trade in one way or another, thats the case all the time, the technicals show me the way and news seems to relate, but if i depend on news for that same trade i would be unsuccessful. its strange but it all stems back to me not understanding fundamentals 100%.


so my advise is if you have no economic background either get some or avoid news trading.
  • #17
  • Jul 12, 2014 10:06am Jul 12, 2014 10:06am
i also trade news
although we all trade news, as that's all the market is,
a discount mechanism
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/...-mechanism.asp

but i'll be brutality honest here
if anyone spills the beans too much on Forex Factory or on any major Forex site, after a short while methods will stop working (for obvious reasons)

text robots scan all Forex sites, twitter and such like and use the gathered info to see what traders really know
and if they know enough, then the biggest market makers change their strategy's and eventually trade against the herd,
this is one of the reasons methods that once worked very well suddenly fail

my advice is, if you have discovered a method or methods that work and pay your bills
(and usually through hard work or time served)
keep it to yourself and close friends (same as the Market Makers do)
  • #18
  • Jul 12, 2014 5:47pm Jul 12, 2014 5:47pm
Quoting diceman555
{quote} hi pbylina,its been along time since you dropped bye. The problem with news release trading ,the initial movement often has no bearing on the positive or negative outcome from the numbers.personally i do somtimes trade news.but not the result of the news itself.im only interested in were the the pools of liquidity are ,price takes the route of least resisistence to the liquiditity,from that point the news release dictate the bias. where is the liquidity ? thats all this whole game is about.
*slow clap
like totally failure brah
  • #19
  • Jul 12, 2014 10:20pm Jul 12, 2014 10:20pm
Quoting Carlsberg
i also trade news although we all trade news, as that's all the market is, a discount mechanism http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/...-mechanism.asp but i'll be brutality honest here if anyone spills the beans too much on Forex Factory or on any major Forex site, after a short while methods will stop working (for obvious reasons) text robots scan all Forex sites, twitter and such like and use the gathered info to see what traders really know and if they know enough, then the biggest market makers change their strategy's and eventually...
Not true at all! If more people used one strategy to even come close to the forex markets volume which undoubtedly would not even dent it, would only make the strategy better off! If market keeps getting orders to go long the price will continue to rise until a large enough offer comes in. Look at the SP500! Thing is, people who use a so called method are doomed from the start whether one uses it or 5hundred. You have to look at the underlying edge and when it comes to news there are so many variable s going against you today that your edge is definitely zero. On top of spread and price mechanics. maybe back in older days, but ony from longer term perspective is where you have greatest edge. Having a degree has nothing to do with trading. You wanna go become analyst then yea sure! But to be trader you only need to focus on major macro theme, meta game, sentiment and your own mindset.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #20
  • Jul 13, 2014 7:23am Jul 13, 2014 7:23am
To me, news trading is mostly gambling. Especially before the facts. If there is a technical and fundamental reason, news can be considered as an acceleration of a normal move. It can also make sense to evaluate the situation after the facts and wait for a retest of the break out area, which happens very often. But just jumping in with hoping is close to tossing a bundle of money in the fire with the hope of doubling it.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
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