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As simple as possible: 00 level trading

  • #6,241
  • Edited 6:17pm Jun 27, 2014 6:01pm | Edited 6:17pm
Quoting Qed
FOREX is not a team game its 1 person aginst another ...
Not at all my friend.... FOREX is 1 ORDER against ANOTHER but behind every order placed, most of the times, there are many peoples involved




Bloomberg News
Glenview’s Robbins Tops Hedge-Fund Ranking

http://www.bloomberg.com/image/iVKcMsHl0b2A.jpg


Also in Golf, that is the most individual sport I know, every victory is a teamwork.....


http://i.usatoday.net/sports/_photos...IS-x-large.jpg

Good week end all...
  • #6,242
  • Edited 6:40pm Jun 27, 2014 6:24pm | Edited 6:40pm
what you mean someone swings the golf club for Tiger? the bloke standing next to Tiger is UDINE... hes telling Tiger :"Follow the Rules ,but you have to swing the club: its your GAME Tiger ...."
Whats That? you're trading What?
  • #6,243
  • Jun 27, 2014 7:13pm Jun 27, 2014 7:13pm
Quoting Qed
what you mean someone swings the golf club for Tiger? the bloke standing next to Tiger is UDINE... hes telling Tiger :"Follow the Rules ,but you have to swing the club: its your GAME Tiger ...."
Nice
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #6,244
  • Edited Jun 28, 2014 3:48am Jun 27, 2014 9:52pm | Edited Jun 28, 2014 3:48am
Many people have made comment on RRR of this system. I also did some basic math based on somewhat hypothetical scenario.

<Scenario>
Your capital is USD 10000. You trade twice a day and make total 40 trades each month. In each trade, you open two lots. Your TP is 5 pips and SL is 10 pips (original rules), which is 2% risk. Your ECN broker charges around 0.5 pips value of commission ($25 per 1 million; $50 for roundtrip). Assume your win rate is 76% (same as Udine's).

<Result after a month>
Profit trade: 30.4 times / Loss trade: 9.6 times (fractions only for demonstration purposes).
Profit ($): 3040 (30.4 * $50 * 2 lots)
Loss ($): 1920 (9.6 * $100 * 2 lots)
Commission ($): 400 (40 * $5 * 2 lots)
---------------
Net profit: USD 720 (7.2 % capital increase in a month).

To make break even, you need to achieve 70% win rate (less than 70% leads to net loss).

If you trade 4 times each day under the same conditions, then your monthly gain will be 14.4%.

If you open 5 lots in each trade (5% risk, which is a bit risky) and trade twice a day, your monthly gain is 18% (36%, if your trade 4 times).

Please note this is a hypothetic result. Various factors can affect real end result. For example, your commission may be different ($50 for roundtrip is actually very nice.) Please also note that Rule 16, 3.5 pips trail stop wasn't considered in this calculation.
Kindly correct me if there's any mistake in my calculation.

Thanks
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #6,245
  • Edited 11:11pm Jun 27, 2014 10:46pm | Edited 11:11pm
Quoting heispark
Many people have made comment on RRR of this system. I also did some basic math based ...

I am afraid, Udine confirmed daily target is 2%, right?

If we use static number,

that is 10% weekly

40% monthly

If you use dynamic number, that would be far more than 40% montly
Outcome is not important at all, but correct technique is what only matters
  • #6,246
  • Edited Jun 28, 2014 12:18am Jun 27, 2014 11:27pm | Edited Jun 28, 2014 12:18am
Quoting szpowerx
{quote} I am afraid, Udine confirmed daily target is 2%, right? If we use static number, that is 10% weekly 40% monthly If you use dynamic number, that would be far more than 40% montly
The question is whether you can easily make 2% capital gain per day when your RR is 2:1 and win rate is 76%. To do this you need high leaverage.... You need to do some reality check here. Anyway, long term statistics will tell. People say to be a succesful scalper, your win rate should be over 90%.
By the way, don't get me wrong. I am not saying constant 10% monthly gain is not enough. It's actually a great performance and I think you can easily beat 90-99% of fellow traders....

EDIT: You also read: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...68#post7509568
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #6,247
  • Jun 27, 2014 11:44pm Jun 27, 2014 11:44pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} The question is whether you can easily make 2% capital gain per day when your RR is 2:1 and win rate is 76%. To do this you need high leaverage.... You need to do some reality check here. Anyway, long term statistics will tell. People say to be a succesful scalper, your win rate should be over 90%.
The question is whether you can easily make 2% capital gain per day when your RR is 2:1 and win rate is 76%.

With Udine's method, bulks of opportunity to trade per day, as for 76% win rate, you can deduce to reach 2% daily, how many trades you would make a day.

That isn't a high leverage issue, the risk is always fixed 2% per trade with 1% reward.
Outcome is not important at all, but correct technique is what only matters
  • #6,248
  • Edited 1:13am Jun 28, 2014 1:00am | Edited 1:13am
Quoting szpowerx
{quote} The question is whether you can easily make 2% capital gain per day when your RR is 2:1 and win rate is 76%.
I apologize upfront if I'm steering this thread off-topic, but it's always interesting to see what the latest and greatest system is on FF. I very much respect Udine as a person and trader. His current system and past systems are a product of hard work and market knowledge. However, his systems only work because he know hows to trade them and how the market moves.

A common misconception in this thread seems to be that you must earn 2% per day on this system in order to be successful.

Why must you trade every day? There is not a single system that handles all market conditions. One of the biggest keys of successful trading is knowing in what market conditions your system yields profit. Some days you should trade and trade. Other days you shouldn't do anything but sit on your hands.

People who talk about the need to earn x%/day tell me two things:

  1. They don't know the system they are trading backwards and forwards. See the above.
  2. They are still new to the Forex business.

Do you want a win-rate of >90%? Learn when to trade. Hint: it's not every day.


One of my favorite quotes on FF is something along the lines of "If you hand traders the holy grail, most of them won't know what to do with it."

"Serenity, you sound like a frustrated Canadian living your life in the US"
  • #6,249
  • Jun 28, 2014 1:19am Jun 28, 2014 1:19am
Quoting SerenityFX
{quote} I apologize upfront if I'm steering this thread off-topic, but it's always interesting to see what the latest and greatest system is on FF. I very much respect Udine as a person and trader. His current system and past systems are a product of hard work and market knowledge. However, his systems only work because he know hows to trade them. A common misconception in this thread seems to be that you must earn 2% per day on this system in order to be successful. Why must you trade every day? There is not a single system that handles all market...
I was just thinking about this same thing whilst walking my dogs and the ins and outs of this system, and weather 2:1 RR is really going to be profitable for me.

And I think the key to it is as you say, choosing when to trade and identifying when not to trade, and that might be that you dont trade at all, or it might be that you dont trade one of your pairs for that session. The key is identifying it before taking losses. Personally I like trading, as in I actually enjoy it so I find hard to stay out, it is a weakness I need to work on here.

Also in a system where your losses are twice the $ amount of your wins it becomes a situation where avoiding losses becomes more important than taking wins, its a different mindset that if the RR was reversed if you think about it.

Less is more
  • #6,250
  • Jun 28, 2014 1:27am Jun 28, 2014 1:27am
Quoting Callum
{quote} I was just thinking about this same thing whilst walking my dogs and the ins and outs of this system, and weather 2:1 RR is really going to be profitable for me. And I think the key to it is as you say, choosing when to trade and identifying when not to trade, and that might be that you dont trade at all, or it might be that you dont trade one of your pairs for that session. The key is identifying it before taking losses. Personally I like trading, as in I actually enjoy it so I find hard to stay out, it is a weakness I need to work on here....
Beautifully said. Impatience is the cardinal sin of trading. No matter what kind of R:R you use, the key is patience. Once you learn how to sit and wait, this game becomes infinitely easier. All long term, successful trading is discretionary. There's no way around it.

Some days I stare at charts for 10 hours and don't place a trade. I still feel quite happy with myself when the day is over.
"Serenity, you sound like a frustrated Canadian living your life in the US"
  • #6,251
  • Jun 28, 2014 1:39am Jun 28, 2014 1:39am
Quoting SerenityFX
{quote} A common misconception in this thread seems to be that you must earn 2% per day on this system in order to be successful. Why must you trade every day?
...
Hint: it's not every day.
Whether or not every day isn't an issue at all.


I believe to make you-self in profit, it would cost couple of years.


After couple of years' struggle, you almost would know what should be and what should not be.
Outcome is not important at all, but correct technique is what only matters
  • #6,252
  • Jun 28, 2014 1:40am Jun 28, 2014 1:40am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
If you take every signal on each hour of every trading session you will lose.

If you notice Udine takes most of his trades in the first couple of hours of London opening. He takes every valid signal during those first few hours. Forget the bonus trades...you don't need them and I am sure that is where more of the discretion (unwritten rules) comes in.

I have just done MY homework and I can see that the first 1 or 2 hours of London session have the higher percentage of winners. Why not check for yourself? Find your own SWEETSPOT!


Regards

Neio
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #6,253
  • Jun 28, 2014 1:43am Jun 28, 2014 1:43am
Quoting Neio
If you take every signal on each hour of every trading session you will lose. If you notice Udine takes most of his trades in the first couple of hours of London opening. He takes every valid signal during those first few hours. Forget the bonus trades...you don't need them and I am sure that is where more of the discretion (unwritten rules) comes in. I have just done MY homework and I can see that the first 1 or 2 hours of London session have the higher percentage of winners. Why not check for yourself? Find your own SWEETSPOT! Regards Neio

Absolutely, the first hour after session's open would make your self much easier.

It is from Sam Seiden, also a great trader, I got this invaluable concept the first time.

Only this concept would greatly increase the win rate.
Outcome is not important at all, but correct technique is what only matters
  • #6,254
  • Jun 28, 2014 2:22am Jun 28, 2014 2:22am
I think we must be careful Trading hours and
Highly ADR in most active parity and of course news flow
for example
Having the highest ADR pair GBPJPY
and the appropriate to the news flow
we only need to trade in the London opening time
London and Tokyo in two markets open
If GBPUSD that day is the highest ADR we need to trade new york opening
I'll try and then I'll share it here

regards
  • #6,255
  • Jun 28, 2014 2:55am Jun 28, 2014 2:55am
Quoting Qed
what you mean someone swings the golf club for Tiger? the bloke standing next to Tiger is UDINE... hes telling Tiger :"Follow the Rules ,but you have to swing the club: its your GAME Tiger ...."
No, they plan the shot together and then Tiger pulls the trigger alone.
We can do the same: Plan the trade together and pull the trigger alone (like a trading room if you know what I mean).

Thanks
  • #6,256
  • Edited 3:41am Jun 28, 2014 3:24am | Edited 3:41am
Has anybody else noticed that over the past week there were multiple entries (by the "Rules") which had been barely touched then moved to StopLoss really fast...?

Guess, why? Brokers, banks, institutional traders also read this thread, and NOW they know exactly where to hunt down the amateurs...
It is already HAPPENING...

One should consider how it will effect the neccesary 8:2 Win/Loss ratio absolutely necessary (read above posts) to keep this strategy profitable...

Attached Image
  • #6,257
  • Jun 28, 2014 3:31am Jun 28, 2014 3:31am
could some one help me? i cant use the indictor
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: use.jpg Size: 132 KB
  • #6,258
  • Jun 28, 2014 3:33am Jun 28, 2014 3:33am
Hi Udine,
Since you post numerous times every few hours on this tread,why don't you post a 10 min video of you trading??
showing your account balance at the bottom..?It would be just as easy as commenting all the time
  • #6,259
  • Jun 28, 2014 4:07am Jun 28, 2014 4:07am
Quoting pj9999
... showing your account balance at the bottom..?
As long as Udine isn't selling something, he has no obligation to prove anything about his profitability or even his trading balance.

He is sharing and teaching freely a trading method ... Take it, trade it ... and see if it is profitable for you.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #6,260
  • Jun 28, 2014 4:32am Jun 28, 2014 4:32am
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} As long as Udine isn't selling something, he has no obligation to prove anything about his profitability or even his trading balance. He is sharing and teaching freely a trading method ... Take it, trade it ... and see if it is profitable for you.
Totally agree. Although one should not "preach water and drink wine" - so to speak symbolically.

As it is turning out from multiple feedbacks, just by using the "rules" (i.e. without any additional discretion) may not produce the claimed 2% per day...
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