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US Crude Oil with smart VSA and Dark Seasons [only]

  • #201
  • Jun 26, 2014 9:45am Jun 26, 2014 9:45am
4th consecutive day and Oil is not getting out of its trend, ranging between +-107 and 105.3, currently holding 2 shorts wish to have some more at 107 and 109 area so a fall from there would be much appreciated. Hoping that it will not break 109-110. These are risky days and uptrend is more likely.
Waleed Khan your opinion plz.
  • #202
  • Jun 26, 2014 10:10am Jun 26, 2014 10:10am
Hard to judge right now. I'll watch it next week to derive a conclusion.
Hello World!
  • #203
  • Jun 26, 2014 10:31am Jun 26, 2014 10:31am
Quoting ClockTrader
Hard to judge right now. I'll watch it next week to derive a conclusion.
You are very right, i remember the bull run of Gold in the area 1395 and then a strong run of Bears in it. At that time Ukarine crisis was the cause of this, now in Oil, Iraq is the main reason (despite its seasonal impact) of Bulls.
Still convinced with ur theory of Seasons.
  • #204
  • Edited 12:06pm Jun 26, 2014 11:35am | Edited 12:06pm
Quoting hamidshah.pk
4th consecutive day and Oil is not getting out of its trend, ranging between +-107 and 105.3, currently holding 2 shorts wish to have some more at 107 and 109 area so a fall from there would be much appreciated. Hoping that it will not break 109-110. These are risky days and uptrend is more likely. Waleed Khan your opinion plz.
Hi Hamidshah

You are still holding your position?

Well my view is stilll the same as my last post; but I have gone a little weary ever since brent took off and wti did not follow...therefore I am a little concerned...
but geo politically not much has changed... therefore I really don't see oil going to $100-102 levels in the near term...

Technically I am still waiting for price to reach 104.8-105 area; which is the support area from the previous leg up (seeing price action and volumes here is going to be key)....If you measure the last consolidation area with this one... the length is about the same; which indicates to me that a move is about to start... Will it hold or go down at that level..I don't know? but whatever happens there will be crucial for the near term bias (104.5 will be next support) ...

But with all this said; I think there is a case for a 5 wave elliott wave here; judging it from the 4 hr chart; if you notice the first corrective wave (may 26 to june 6th) to the one now; that was more steep than the one right now (which is sideways) hence that fits the rule for a 5 cycle elliott wave...and this will be valid until ultimately we have a close below 104.5...

Hope this makes sense...?
  • #205
  • Jun 26, 2014 1:09pm Jun 26, 2014 1:09pm
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} Hi Hamidshah You are still holding your position? Well my view is stilll the same as my last post; but I have gone a little weary ever since brent took off and wti did not follow...therefore I am a little concerned... but geo politically not much has changed... therefore I really don't see oil going to $100-102 levels in the near term... Technically I am still waiting for price to reach 104.8-105 area; which is the support area from the previous leg up (seeing price action and volumes here is going to be key)....If you measure the last...
Thanks Waleed dear, though i am still holding but don't know how far i can hold them .
  • #206
  • Jul 1, 2014 10:45pm Jul 1, 2014 10:45pm
Nice Support has built up around 104

PS: Using smart VSA patterns
Hello World!
  • #207
  • Jul 1, 2014 11:51pm Jul 1, 2014 11:51pm
Looking to go long against 104.55.Expect 108.3 from here.
  • #208
  • Jul 3, 2014 4:00am Jul 3, 2014 4:00am
Quoting hamidshah.pk
{quote} Thanks Waleed dear, though i am still holding but don't know how far i can hold them .

Hi Hamid; Price has retraced below 104.5 and hence the Ew structure is broken...

We have seen good buying on 104 level; but there is still no supportive price action candles to drag the price up... I would watch these levels carefully as it is also the 61.8 retracement area...

If it breaks then there might be more downside to come... I have not been trading this instrument ever since Brent had taken off and left it behind... I am not confident about this pair as yet...

I would look at Brent to see for future price direction...as it seems to be leading US oil right now!
  • #209
  • Jul 3, 2014 5:18am Jul 3, 2014 5:18am
Hello Waleed I have been away for a couple of weeks can you let me know if there are any significant gaps too look out for.
  • #210
  • Jul 3, 2014 6:08am Jul 3, 2014 6:08am
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} Hi Hamid; Price has retraced below 104.5 and hence the Ew structure is broken... We have seen good buying on 104 level; but there is still no supportive price action candles to drag the price up... I would watch these levels carefully as it is also the 61.8 retracement area... If it breaks then there might be more downside to come... I have not been trading this instrument ever since Brent had taken off and left it behind... I am not confident about this pair as yet... I would look at Brent to see for future price direction...as it seems...
I closed 2 shorts at 104.46 and now waiting for the price to go up so i can load them again. I think it will not give me an opportunity to Sell it again at higher price. Anyway thank you so much for your care and inputs.
  • #211
  • Jul 3, 2014 6:10am Jul 3, 2014 6:10am
Quoting don555
Hello Waleed I have been away for a couple of weeks can you let me know if there are any significant gaps too look out for.
Hi Don

The gaps that I have from the start of june are on

103.7
103.4
102.4
101.88

These levels could act as both support and resistance levels... I am staying away from this pair right now... plus I do not recommend shorting it; even if the technicals indicate... it's too risky considering the geopolitical and seasonal bias etc...
  • #212
  • Jul 3, 2014 6:19am Jul 3, 2014 6:19am
Quoting hamidshah.pk
{quote} I closed 2 shorts at 104.46 and now waiting for the price to go up so i can load them again. I think it will not give me an opportunity to Sell it again at higher price. Anyway thank you so much for your care and inputs.

Hi Hamid... No problem

The Ew structure has broken...so there could be more downside and hence you could have sold for a better price...

You just have to watch price action and volume on s/r areas...and the moment you notice pinbars appearing and volume building; that should be an indicator that the downside is about to stop....

But the fact that you have closed is good nonetheless... "to me this is a big thing -- and was a big lesson to learn: the fact is when you know you are beat; you should cut your losses and get out...when one holds on to a trade "hoping" that it will come back in their direction...that becomes gambling and one from that point is not playing to make money but is playing for pride and for the notion of "not being wrong"...

Trading is a tough game...and one can only become better after realizing and learning from their mistakes...

Good luck to you
  • #213
  • Edited 9:11am Jul 8, 2014 9:05am | Edited 9:11am
Hello everyone, can anyone let me know the reason for this thread being so quiet for the past 5 days.

Correction I should have said quiet for the past 3 trading days.
  • #214
  • Jul 8, 2014 11:07am Jul 8, 2014 11:07am
perhaps they're on Holiday
abducted by aliens
walking the dog
doing their home work
feeding the pigeons
given up trading Oil
who knows?

Oils in a downtrend nr support
where it goes next is anyone's guess
  • #215
  • Jul 8, 2014 6:09pm Jul 8, 2014 6:09pm
Quoting Carlsberg
perhaps they're on Holiday abducted by aliens walking the dog doing their home work feeding the pigeons given up trading Oil who knows? Oils in a downtrend nr support where it goes next is anyone's guess

  • #216
  • Edited 10:24am Jul 9, 2014 10:07am | Edited 10:24am
Quoting don555
Hello everyone, can anyone let me know the reason for this thread being so quiet for the past 5 days. Correction I should have said quiet for the past 3 trading days.

Well I haven't been trading it because I said so in my last post...

When I don't understand the movement of price I stay away from it (plus gold had become a more attractive instrument in the past month)...

Oil is acting against all the geo pol and seasonal expectations...plus most of my indicators are not matching a short sell right now... For me it is too risky to do anything in oil right now...

I have one more gap at 101.8 to be taken out... lets see if price reaches that level and how it acts...perhaps then the picture might become clearer! My max support area is 101.5... if it starts holding in the range of 101.5 to 101.8.. I might look to buy? if not then I will not do anything until the chart starts looking clearer...
  • #217
  • Jul 9, 2014 10:41am Jul 9, 2014 10:41am
Quoting Carlsberg
perhaps they're on Holiday abducted by aliens walking the dog doing their home work feeding the pigeons given up trading Oil who knows? Oils in a downtrend nr support where it goes next is anyone's guess

You missed suffering with "soccer fever"...
  • #218
  • Jul 9, 2014 11:21am Jul 9, 2014 11:21am
Quoting ClockTrader
Nice Support has built up around 104 PS: Using smart VSA patterns
The support @ 104 has broken, some bounce may be left, but, on broad level, the Dark Seasons are in
Hello World!
  • #219
  • Jul 11, 2014 10:40am Jul 11, 2014 10:40am
Seeing Price action and volume on the 1 hr and 4 hr candle...

Looking for a pinbar with a lot of volume... lets see if 101.5 holds like it did yesterday...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usoilh1.png Size: 40 KB
  • #220
  • Jul 11, 2014 11:03am Jul 11, 2014 11:03am
Quoting waleed.khan
Seeing Price action and volume on the 1 hr and 4 hr candle... Looking for a pinbar with a lot of volume... lets see if 101.5 holds like it did yesterday... {image}
failed on the hourly...lets see if 4 hr can do something.. if not then we can go lower!
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