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Looking for Real Trading Method

  • #421
  • Jun 24, 2014 9:35pm Jun 24, 2014 9:35pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Correct. Spread is not trading but brokers' commission. Are there any edges in this market that give clear cut advantage to even small retail traders? The answer is Yes. I am not talking about technical probabilistic edges like fibs or patterns or averages, etc., that people use and win on balance when their tactic works more than 50% of the time on equal/risk reward (or any combination of risk/reward and achieved win/lose ratio that's resultant sum is positive). I am talking about logical and solid edge that is free from technical studies...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=245149
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #422
  • Jun 24, 2014 9:53pm Jun 24, 2014 9:53pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=245149
Excellent. I participated in Graeme's this thread and it is one example of what I was talking about. Method given in Building an Equity Millepede thread of PipEasy (Graeme) is very close to one more method developed by X.oden. I did some research on these footings and have yet another similar method for myself.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #423
  • Jun 24, 2014 10:01pm Jun 24, 2014 10:01pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Excellent. I participated in Graeme's this thread and it is one example of what I was talking about. Method given in Building an Equity Millepede thread of PipEasy (Graeme) is very close to one more method developed by X.oden. I did some research on these footings and have yet another similar method for myself.

I've built 2 trigger based millipedes that are currently testing.

Not really my favorite strategy, but it is effective and does help minimize risk....

Myself and a few friends have a comparative test running on a few strategies, my participation is on the millipede.

Millipede
All others

The idea is to test a few different logics with the same broker, same pairs over a 3 month period.

The goal is to find ideas that are not only profitable over that length of time, but also offer the lowest risk.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #424
  • Jun 24, 2014 11:29pm Jun 24, 2014 11:29pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} I've built 2 trigger based millipedes that are currently testing. Not really my favorite strategy, but it is effective and does help minimize risk.... Myself and a few friends have a comparative test running on a few strategies, my participation is on the millipede. Millipede All others The idea is to test a few different logics with the same broker, same pairs over a 3 month period. The goal is...
Glad to see you participate Magix. You once mention about M5 strategy using Moving Average, (price above, buy. Price below, sell). It has been testing on live for about 4 months now. Of course, it has been developed into details, but you sure have an interesting idea to start with. I am not expecting to be completed in a year or two, but surely looks promising enough to study.
I keep in touch. For my part, my strategy involving astro, and i do not think it belong to this thread.
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #425
  • Jun 24, 2014 11:42pm Jun 24, 2014 11:42pm
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} Glad to see you participate Magix. You once mention about M5 strategy using Moving Average, (price above, buy. Price below, sell). It has been testing on live for about 4 months now. Of course, it has been developed into details, but you sure have an interesting idea to start with. I am not expecting to be completed in a year or two, but surely looks promising enough to study. I keep in touch. For my part, my strategy involving astro, and i do not think it belong to this thread.

The DTEMA is just an idea that can be translated in many ways...price above daily roll...price below daily roll...

Identifying the trend is only a single part of any strategy, because even having an idea of the overall or general trend of the day, you do still need to find a good time to actually take that trade.

Great to see that you have set somewhat of a realistic target on your improvements, Kecoa!!

This game can be won and lost overnight...but consistency is a time based relative.

One of the places I have never much strayed was into the ASTRO.

So far, Chicky hasn't really set the rules as to what Shouldn't be posted and I believe that if you too can spread a little information that is trade relevant, your ideas will find a home here.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #426
  • Jun 24, 2014 11:51pm Jun 24, 2014 11:51pm
Quoting skfx
Big money marking it up. 52.00 floor in the ES with a large playing accumulating 52.25 and other big hitters front-running them blocking into the offer. You can see them if you have the tools. These jokers will work prices over sessions. They do their numbers. I'll get a video up at some point of a live trade. rgds {image}
Looking forward to your continuation regarding alternative view points other than charts.

my most successful trades are also taken with out using the chart for entry .in fact if I refrained from taking any other trades my gains would be growing much quicker.

without the advanced tooling you have suggested ,I am, if only by default ,able to to see flows ,with a high degree of accuracy.my knowledge lacks some of the reasoning ,but non the less gives me a advantage over a chart entry.

I only trade cable so will use yesterdays break down as an example.

From my chart, price was trading at its daily and hourly average .17025.12 hours price traded within a 12 pip range.at London open I refer to a group of related pairs values , refreshed from roller over, i can determine the over all market stall point .initially I went long prior to secondary news figures from uk,at 17025,directed by related pairs stall point broken in favour of dollar weakness . within 5 or six minutes I was able to determine the pound was being sold against the overall market . first seen on the yen and chf. the selling on those pairs was significant .or I should say ,was visible on these pairs in advace to cable. i immediately reversed my trade taking a 6 pip loss from the long .price immediately dropped 40 pips .this is not an isolated case,i trade these set ups with very positive results . and the r/r is often greater than 3/1.at this point I refer to my chart for my calculated technical levels on my exit . again the values play a key role here as they re adjust .almost like recalibrate.

The chart alone could not offer me any advanced knowledge with confidence to the drop off.but they showed me through technical the ideal exit.

so any advancement in tools or a nudge in a favoured direction would be most welcome.i have looked at level two but couldnot really figure out its advantages,having said that I didn't really give it to much study.

thanks

So any advancement on tools than can enhance these flows in advance would be very welcome.
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  • #427
  • Jun 25, 2014 1:27am Jun 25, 2014 1:27am
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} Glad to see you participate Magix. You once mention about M5 strategy using Moving Average, (price above, buy. Price below, sell). It has been testing on live for about 4 months now. Of course, it has been developed into details, but you sure have an interesting idea to start with. I am not expecting to be completed in a year or two, but surely looks promising enough to study. I keep in touch. For my part, my strategy involving astro, and i do not think it belong to this thread.
Nice of you to visit this thread Kecoa.

This thread welcomes all, any ideas will be appreciated. No limits or restriction on any discussion here, only that we should all respect each other.

Now, I have to go check my Horoscope.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #428
  • Jun 25, 2014 3:03am Jun 25, 2014 3:03am
Quoting skfx
{quote} Pip, You'll need to see money put down on the table. You get around this by working 'their'(the jokers that run the show) base prices. If you are shooting your pistol at every tick that moves, you'll end up with your nickers in a twist. That price 'they' are working,they'll mark it up every time. They passively sit there and get slapped. Then either they or someone else will feel them out and block hit the bid/offer above/below the accumulated price. As mentioned, to get price to reverse or continue, you'll need accumulation and block hitting....
Thanks for your reply (noticed ur using P.D's software).

So the odds increase based on size and flow of mkt orders hitting into them bids/offers.
I see you put an emphasis on accumulation at levels. is this for you to gauge the amount of money in.
What do you think of filtered tape? Considering a lot of HFT hit the market in small lots...?
  • #429
  • Jun 25, 2014 4:49am Jun 25, 2014 4:49am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Even prior to working with EAs and code... I always thought of market and price in terms of, IF/THEN. IF support gets broken, THEN the previous support will get tested as resistance. IF Support Holds, THEN we can continue to be long... Tested does not necessarily mean that any support or resistance area will hold, it just means that we can effectively find these areas and use them to look for opportunities. If you buys support and support fails, you can see this and find a quick back door. Depending on your frame of reference by time or...
while im away, i lag behind 12 pages.
interesting opinion by magix.
that raised my newbie questions.
in the term of IF THEN logic and technical analysis, what is the purpose of Stop Losses and Take Profit check-points? did it have to do with identifying change of price direction for some minimum timeframe and/or price range from current time when entered a trade? IF NO, THEN why would one use Stop Loss and Take Profit instead of letting the trade run and close it whenever we like?
IF YES, THEN does it have the logic and the scientific approach behind the determination of the Stop Loss in accordance with the trading system that the trader's using ?
IF it DOES have the logic and scientific approach, then how to calculate the accuracy of the stop loss in accordance with timeframe and/or price range from spesific current price and time ?
i have heard that the scientific approach sometime use some level of confidence or margin of error.

i have heard that some traders loosing confidence after in slump / bad trades.

i believe there's a way to calculate the margin of errors/ level of confidence of the technical analysis levels, since it is technical...there should be a technical explanation.
since its a systematic trading method, there should be a systematic explanation too?

meanwhile, let me read from page 10
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #430
  • Jun 25, 2014 6:03am Jun 25, 2014 6:03am
Quoting diceman555
{quote} Looking forward to your continuation regarding alternative view points other than charts. my most successful trades are also taken with out using the chart for entry .in fact if I refrained from taking any other trades my gains would be growing much quicker. without the advanced tooling you have suggested ,I am, if only by default ,able to to see flows ,with a high degree of accuracy.my knowledge lacks some of the reasoning ,but non the less gives me a advantage over a chart entry. I only trade cable so will use yesterdays break down as...
Hey dice,
Charts have there place but trading solely from them is a disaster waiting to happen. Just ask every other retailer on the planet. If it was so easy, my next door neighbor would be tearing it up using one.
I refuse to believe that so many retail traders fail because they are either stupid, ignorant or undisciplined. Knowing what is going on is a wonderful thing.
Charts aid memory and give context, that's all.
L2 is no good.
You know where to find me(pm) for further direction.
rgds
  • #431
  • Jun 25, 2014 6:15am Jun 25, 2014 6:15am
Quoting Pipalicious
{quote} Thanks for your reply (noticed ur using P.D's software). So the odds increase based on size and flow of mkt orders hitting into them bids/offers. I see you put an emphasis on accumulation at levels. is this for you to gauge the amount of money in. What do you think of filtered tape? Considering a lot of HFT hit the market in small lots...?
Hey Pip,
Yes, correct with the software.
You'll need two things as mentioned to reverse prices:
1.Accumulation/absorption=passive
2.Block hits=aggressive
When big money combine the two, that is, they passively make and then they themselves or someone else front-runs that price and you then get block hit(the take), price moves.
If you get the maker but no one will run and take, then price will sit there all day until it fails.
Sometimes a price move in a certain direction will be so powerful, no accumulation is done. But its all block hits into the bid/offer.
But you see it ALL.
Bund sep09 contract and you tell me where the big money was? They were working a price the whole of London.
I didn't get this number from a chart. I saw them doing it by the numbers. Not only that the seller wouldn't run prices under that.
Its ok, but I have all the information on my DOM I need. I start from the left of my DOM and work right. I call them 'outside' and 'inside'.
Guys fail with order flow trading because they are working the 'inside', trying to run for every tick that moves. You need to find the prices big money is working, and that's the price you do.
Rgds
  • #432
  • Jun 25, 2014 6:35am Jun 25, 2014 6:35am
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} while im away, i lag behind 12 pages. interesting opinion by magix. that raised my newbie questions. in the term of IF THEN logic and technical analysis, what is the purpose of Stop Losses and Take Profit check-points? did it have to do with identifying change of price direction for some minimum timeframe and/or price range from current time when entered a trade? IF NO, THEN why would one use Stop Loss and Take Profit instead of letting the trade run and close it whenever we like? IF YES, THEN does it have the logic and the scientific approach...
Hey ud,
There is no logic, that's the thing.
If big money move markets and they are working a price through sessions and this time around they fail, then your lean is gone and you exit, that is your stop.
When the breeze stops blowing your in trouble.
If you place stops based on price charts you are in the crosshairs. They will come after you with a vengeance.
rgds
  • #433
  • Jun 25, 2014 6:53am Jun 25, 2014 6:53am
Quoting skfx
{quote} Hey ud, There is no logic, that's the thing. If big money move markets and they are working a price through sessions and this time around they fail, then your lean is gone and you exit, that is your stop. When the breeze stops blowing your in trouble. If you place stops based on price charts you are in the crosshairs. They will come after you with a vengeance. rgds
By "working a price in" you're talking about a nice patch of liquidity that is holding the market up..?

So a large "zone or buy limits" that is acting as support and allowing sellers to offload at this price ...

IF you have a Bullish bias.. You will probably say "oh yea look at that the level is holding as the buying keeps defeating the selling, but keeps returning to this price to buy more...

If you have a sellers bias you might say.. well yes there are large buyers holding this price but this is allowing sellers to load up at large quantities ... once it is exhausted the market will fall and also hit sell stops...

One wins one loses... If you guessed right you sound smart. If you lose, no harm done, it just didn't work out this time.

But how is this any different to a tech trader selling a strong resistance level? Or buying a strong support. It just doesn't sound as intelligent I guess.

A large block has a large stop also
like totally failure brah
  • #434
  • Jun 25, 2014 6:56am Jun 25, 2014 6:56am
Here's the Bund.
What's the prime price?
0ne number, but can you pull that from a chart real-time without guessing or hoping it works?
rgds
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #435
  • Jun 25, 2014 6:57am Jun 25, 2014 6:57am
Quoting skfx
Here's the Bund. What's the prime price? 0ne number, but can you pull that from a chart real-time without guessing or hoping it works? rgds {image}
Somewhere around 146.30 I'm guessing bro
like totally failure brah
  • #436
  • Jun 25, 2014 7:02am Jun 25, 2014 7:02am
Quoting simonb
{quote} By "working a price in" you're talking about a nice patch of liquidity that is holding the market up..? So a large "zone or buy limits" that is acting as support and allowing sellers to offload at this price ... IF you have a Bullish bias.. You will probably say "oh yea look at that the level is holding as the buying keeps defeating the selling, but keeps returning to this price to buy more... If you have a sellers bias you might say.. well yes there are large buyers holding this price but this is allowing sellers to load up at large quantities...
Simon,
There's a bit more to trading than buying/selling double bottoms/tops or triples and HOPING it holds.
I'm not talking a 'patch', im talking a price.
Too many IF's and GUESSING here Simon. Not good for trading profits matey.
You going to have to do better than that.

Block hits are not block orders! Block hits are money on the table champ. Block orders are still in your hand.
Huge difference.
rgds
  • #437
  • Jun 25, 2014 7:03am Jun 25, 2014 7:03am
Quoting skfx
{quote} Simon, There's a bit more to trading than buying/selling double bottoms/tops or triples and HOPING it holds. I'm not talking a 'patch', im talking a price. Too many IF's and GUESSING here Simon. Not good for trading profits matey. You going to have to do better than that. rgds
so tell me... Where is it? It's where price fked around the most... isn't it

I only need to guess. If I'm wrong I lose like ... nothing

I don't do any of that sh*t you mentioned anyway... I was just saying that what you do is no different to that... Really
like totally failure brah
  • #438
  • Jun 25, 2014 7:06am Jun 25, 2014 7:06am
Quoting simonb
{quote} so tell me... Where is it? It's where price fked around the most... I only need to guess. If I'm wrong I lose like ... nothing
Well guess then Simon.
By the way, where's your stop on your guess?
There's a bit more to trading than taking a guess and running your stop off structure.
What does guessing do for your confidence levels?
Rgds
  • #439
  • Jun 25, 2014 7:10am Jun 25, 2014 7:10am
Quoting simonb
{quote} I was just saying that what you do is no different to that... Really But you won't hear that.
What is evident is that you don't know what you don't know.
If you are assuming I guess, take a stab punt or a tickle of a gamble you got it wrong.
Rgds
  • #440
  • Jun 25, 2014 7:12am Jun 25, 2014 7:12am
Quoting skfx
{quote} Well guess then Simon. By the way, where's your stop on your guess? There's a bit more to trading than taking a guess and running your stop off structure. What does guessing do for your confidence levels? Rgds
Well I don't exactly flip a coin.. But it's nice to not have to "know" everything. So there's always a silver lining I guess.
like totally failure brah
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