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Trading Crude Oil with price action + indicator

  • #121
  • Jun 16, 2014 7:10am Jun 16, 2014 7:10am
Guys tight now I'm in Iraq and I think oil going long because of the political situation in Iraq and now ISIS is near from the (Beji oil field) if they attack this oil field in my opinion it will go long for 110 or 112
  • #122
  • Jun 17, 2014 7:28am Jun 17, 2014 7:28am
Market has broken up from a triangle with a 113.07 target. Fibo at 107.75 holds initial test.
WTI crude oil has seen an acceleration higher through the 104.20/105.22 resistance (61.8% retracement of the move down from the September 2013 peak and the March high) and the rally has already reached the 78.6% retracement of the move down from the August 2013 peak at 107.75, which has held the initial test. this is the last defence for the 112.24 August high.
The market has recently broken higher from an ascending triangle and this offers an upside measured target to 113.07. A close through 107.75 will trigger the move to 112.24/113.07.
Intraday dips are indicated to terminate circa 105.00-104.20. Key support is the 2014 uptrend at 101.82. While above here will assume an upside bias. Read more: Market Watch​
  • #123
  • Jun 19, 2014 3:05am Jun 19, 2014 3:05am
Is the downside a retracement now ? Or is over and time to sell please ?
  • #124
  • Edited 4:51pm Jun 19, 2014 11:09am | Edited 4:51pm
I wish it wasn't lunch time. I don't want this day to end....
The last few days have been a dream come true. This may be a downward flag for the next big move but inside this range are whole dollar moves. This is sick trading at its best. I have only been selling off the lines cuz it's my thing but you can take this up or down and both for more ticks than the next full move will probably offer anyway.

Here's to sleeping good at night with no overnight positions. Just my philosophy. Trade away my friends for positive R:R whatever your style... Just no predictions unless you're counting the ships entering the harbor.

Downward Flag bouncing off a Buyer's Zone.... will it hold or will it fail? Who cares but a new leg is comin'.

If you're a Bear, don't stand in front of the Bulls.
If you're a Bull, no feeding the Bears.
...... and if you're both, God Bless you cuz you are makin' all the bacon.

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  • #125
  • Jun 19, 2014 12:13pm Jun 19, 2014 12:13pm
Quoting JoeNY
Downward Flag bouncing off a Buyer's Zone.... will it hold or will it fail? Who cares but a new leg is comin.... If you're a Bear, don't play with the Bulls. If you're a Bull, no feeding the Bears...... and if you're both, God Bless you cuz you are makin' the full killin' {image} {image}
Nice post. I agree its a bull flag, i bought a nice piece at the lower dips, im not in a selling mood, i think its got room to the upside, just a hunch, but yeah since in a medium term uptrend i wont be selling nada
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  • #126
  • Jun 19, 2014 12:17pm Jun 19, 2014 12:17pm
any opinions on why crude had a gap up on vantage fx
and a gap down on ava trade, then after 3 days they eventually are offering the same price!?!?!?
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  • #127
  • Jun 19, 2014 12:33pm Jun 19, 2014 12:33pm
Now we are waiting Obama to speak. i think will send boots on the ground to counter ISIS, and all the region will ignite completely. Oil will hit 112 next week now we are waiting to broke 107.5 then NOOOORTH
  • #128
  • Jun 19, 2014 11:52pm Jun 19, 2014 11:52pm
anyone going long... wouldn't hurt to buy some put protection....
  • #129
  • Jun 19, 2014 11:58pm Jun 19, 2014 11:58pm
Just threw in a short. Offers just above 115 seem rather strong. Personally I am buying wheat and more S&P500
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #130
  • Jun 20, 2014 3:18am Jun 20, 2014 3:18am
Quoting Rtm
Just threw in a short. Offers just above 115 seem rather strong. Personally I am buying wheat and more S&P500
im also long wheat, note the price wall.. could fall but likely it will break and head for 600

Crude light is still a buy just waiting for setups. closed above 106 so 107/108 still in reach imo
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  • #131
  • Jun 20, 2014 3:44am Jun 20, 2014 3:44am
Quoting Verve
{quote} im also long wheat, note the price wall.. could fall but likely it will break and head for 600 Crude light is still a buy just waiting for setups. closed above 106 so 107/108 still in reach imo {image}
Yes we still picking bit of a bottom here but we are in season!(wheat) Yeah I had a bit of revenge going on crude as I went long literally right before huge rally but sold out early. Too late for me now to buy it is at an extreme(crude). Nice to see others on board though
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #132
  • Jun 20, 2014 3:46am Jun 20, 2014 3:46am
Quoting ziyaze
{quote} How is it going Verve are you a happy man now?
Damn right im happy!!
ive almost double that account in a month, at first my strategy was shaky but i think i tamed the beast.
Hows your trading?

btw anyone know of a broker who compares with Ava trade - commodities and cfds, nevermind their fx spreads are harendous
  • #133
  • Jun 20, 2014 3:55am Jun 20, 2014 3:55am
Quoting Rtm
{quote} Yes we still picking bit of a bottom here but we are in season!(wheat) Yeah I had a bit of revenge going on crude as I went long literally right before huge rally but sold out early. Too late for me now to buy it is at an extreme(crude). Nice to see others on board though
yes lets keep this thread alive, im not much of a fundy as i trade technical but ill post market news and share trade insight
maybe we can make this thread a shared commodity outlook, no point starting one just for cotton ey

ill soon be long coffee, opened above 107 with a sharp rise in late US trading, i think coffee like crude are in limbo until data comes out how the conflict will have disrupted supplies and how the largest drought in 50 years will affect coffee produce
  • #134
  • Jun 20, 2014 3:59am Jun 20, 2014 3:59am
'Iraq produced approximately 3.5 million barrels a day of oil last month, making it OPEC’s second-biggest oil producer behind Saudi Arabia.'
'Concerns about potential supply disruptions due to fighting in Iraq persisted, as the conflict between Sunni Islamist insurgents and Iraqi army forces continued on Friday.' investing.com

this is current and like most coms they take a while to play out.
the second largest producer, and rebels have taken over the largest refinery.. this is a disaster, obama will send troops even if he doesnt want to now, my guess is he needs to warm up the us citizens into supporting another conflict
  • #135
  • Jun 20, 2014 4:04am Jun 20, 2014 4:04am
Quoting Rtm
{quote} Yes we still picking bit of a bottom here but we are in season!(wheat) Yeah I had a bit of revenge going on crude as I went long literally right before huge rally but sold out early. Too late for me now to buy it is at an extreme(crude). Nice to see others on board though
So in your opinion is it buy season for wheat, what are the cycles/ seasons ?
id say buy crude at 105.4s
the lower channel is in yellow, heck it may go back to it, but i think its about to start an upward channel
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  • #136
  • Jun 20, 2014 4:32am Jun 20, 2014 4:32am
Quoting Verve
{quote} So in your opinion is it buy season for wheat, what are the cycles/ seasons ? id say buy crude at 105.4s the lower channel is in yellow, heck it may go back to it, but i think its about to start an upward channel {image}
Wheat Trading Strategy
Like most crops, wheat tends to follow a seasonal price pattern based on the weather. If the winter wheat crop has broken dormancy in good shape and spring rains are sufficient, wheat prices may decline seasonally going into the harvest period as the market assumes an injection of new, larger wheat supplies. After harvesting reveals the size of the crop, wheat prices tend to move up seasonally from June/July through the end of the year. This seasonal price pattern is also the basis for a typical wheat/corn spread that is, buy wheat in June/July when prices presumably are at their lowest level of the season and sell corn, which often rallies to a seasonal high in mid-summer based on weather fears.

I would say judging by the major decline we have had this year that the weather has followed this similar approach although corn is not really something I feel comfortable trading just because there are MANY more variables involved being a major fuel source for animals humans and cars.
I do fundamentals along side technicals.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #137
  • Edited 7:11am Jun 20, 2014 5:59am | Edited 7:11am
Wheat, Soybean and Corn for me as well...

Awesome R:R on Soy. You think Crude takes off like a bat outta hell once everyone's loaded up? Soybean launches faster and further...

All technical. No long term views. Just a Bear who shorts off his lines "counter or with" for some daily shekels. I'm in the U.S. so I can trade the contracts.

Bar Chart .com for what's hot throughout the day. They update the rank/ volume totals as the day progresses.

Soybean

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Wheat (Obviously a bears dream for many weeks but this is the first turn in weeks... Who knows....)

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  • #138
  • Edited 7:10am Jun 20, 2014 6:55am | Edited 7:10am
Corn (December):
Bounce @ a good location. Fundis are tough as crops looking really good but very early in the season so any weather problems will give this a boost. Predictions of a record year (165+ bu/acre and 13.95+ billion bushels) despite 6 million less acres planted than last year which produced 158 bu/acre. Exports are good & ethanol production high as oil is high & margins are good. Supply of ethanol is getting heavy though now. Prices dropping but that should remove excess supply if oil remains high. Ethanol will use over 5 billion bushels of corn this year (40% of production) but parts of the byproducts go back to be fed to livestock so a bit misleading to say ethanol removes 40% of corn supply.
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  • #139
  • Edited 8:48am Jun 20, 2014 7:34am | Edited 8:48am
I was going to make a joke about me seeing something and going long which I don't really like to do. I was going to say get ready for Crude to drop like lead because JoeNY is going long.

Holy Motha of God. I placed my order and this thing blew through the roof. I thought my software was spazzing out...

For anyone who was looking at what I was looking at. I just for the first time EVER understood/saw in action the meaning of times frames being FRACTAL.... Wow! Look at both charts... What do you seeeee...:nerd: Flag + Flag =

....but I'm still a Bear at heart just always an opportunist...

Well anyway, I'm a take the money and run kinda guy so +41 ticks and I'm out. Lots of supply on the way up needs to be blasted through. Not my cup of tea to hold long through lots of mine fields. Probably the start of an upward leg but I hate being Long...

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  • #140
  • Jun 20, 2014 7:44am Jun 20, 2014 7:44am
hii mahak today i buy crude oil 6400 tgt 6440 sl 6385.. if u wish to join me call me
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