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Let's Trade Options

  • #3,961
  • Jun 15, 2014 1:54pm Jun 15, 2014 1:54pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} looking to next 2 weeks, a few on tap...quadruple witchings ER's, could be fun.... 6/17: ADBE; 6/18: FDX; 6/19: ORCL; 6/23: KBH, MU 6/26: CAG, NKE
in a thinly traded week a few ER's sometimes means big moves. ADBE has no weeklies. ORCL usually puts up some good ER pops. MU sitting at a 10-yr high, has gone from $5 to $31.50+ in < 2 yrs, expectations should be high...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,962
  • Jun 15, 2014 4:36pm Jun 15, 2014 4:36pm
http://www.marctomarket.com/2014/06/...opolitics.html

"Geopolitical events loom large......Higher oil prices may weigh on equities and support bonds."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,963
  • Jun 16, 2014 9:14am Jun 16, 2014 9:14am
Just entered a bullish put spread on IWM, 114/115 for this Friday expiration. Sold it for 0.26
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #3,964
  • Jun 16, 2014 9:48am Jun 16, 2014 9:48am
Quoting The Fool
... ORCL usually puts up some good ER pops. MU sitting at a 10-yr high, has gone from $5 to $31.50+ in < 2 yrs, expectations should be high...
MU 30/33 strangle for next Friday expiration is about 1.50
MU options looks expensive

ORCL 40/44 strangle for this Friday expiration about 0.45...

Used to trade straddles and strangles before ER, not so much now. Sometimes they are good, sometimes not...
What would be your strategy The Fool?
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #3,965
  • Jun 16, 2014 11:00am Jun 16, 2014 11:00am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} MU 30/33 strangle for next Friday expiration is about 1.50 MU options looks expensive ORCL 40/44 strangle for this Friday expiration about 0.45... Used to trade straddles and strangles before ER, not so much now. Sometimes they are good, sometimes not... What would be your strategy The Fool?
Hey StrayDog,

For now, I don't much like the look of either one of those. Getting into the cheap strangles right before the ER can pay really well but I have also done many where I lost everything on both legs. I have had better luck fading really big moves after the ER. Either way those are m/l daytrader strategies and I don't always have time/inclination to put in the screen time to get the best entry exit on those, and you often have to be very nimble and "right on time" with your entries/exits to keep a winner from quickly falling into loss.... That said, I will still look for good opps around the ER's, but maybe someday I will grow out of it.

Trading spreads fits my (lazy) personality better. That IWM put spread you are in looks kinda risky to me, though....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,966
  • Jun 16, 2014 11:12am Jun 16, 2014 11:12am
Quoting The Fool
Taking my lumps on bond spreads today, will be working to break even on several of those in TLT/TBT. Bought GLD $131 Sep calls @ $0.76 & will be looking to sell some otm calls against those soon, fingers crossed for a continuing gold rally north of $1300.
I was taking heart overnight when I saw gold pushing over $1,280, looking like it may fall back to flatlining around $1,275 now....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,967
  • Jun 16, 2014 11:33am Jun 16, 2014 11:33am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} ... Getting into the cheap strangles right before the ER can pay really well but I have also done many where I lost everything on both legs....
Agreed. Both thing happened to me also.

Quoting The Fool
{quote} .... and you often have to be very nimble and "right on time" with your entries/exits to keep a winner from quickly falling into loss....
Yes... Especially exit.

Quoting The Fool
{quote} That IWM put spread you are in looks kinda risky to me, though....
IWM has to stay above 115, I think its doable... Could sold it for more though, but I will be happy if that trade works.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #3,968
  • Jun 17, 2014 3:12pm Jun 17, 2014 3:12pm
^TNX up 6-7 bps today and the Fed better say the right soothing words tomorrow or there will be alot more bps up to come, and that's the break I have been waiting for....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,969
  • Jun 17, 2014 9:03pm Jun 17, 2014 9:03pm
Quoting The Fool
^TNX up 6-7 bps today and the Fed better say the right soothing words tomorrow or there will be alot more bps up to come, and that's the break I have been waiting for....
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-the-...k-the-markets/

omg omg omg the Fed is gonna shake things up fkuc I wisht something would....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,970
  • Jun 17, 2014 10:06pm Jun 17, 2014 10:06pm
http://www.hoadley.net/options/optionstools.htm

have any of you used the Hoadley options tools? I just got them last week and have been setting everything up. IB data feed is accessible but glitchy, so I am trying TDA this evening, but the free data from MSN and Yahoo are doable, too. It's especially well integrated with StockWatch data, but that's a subscription....only $20-$30 a month, though, depending on what you get....

Anyway, lots of useful functions for what you pay. I'm looking forward to building some customized tools.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,971
  • Jun 17, 2014 10:30pm Jun 17, 2014 10:30pm
http://www.thestreet.com/story/12747...o&cm_ven=YAHOO
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-06-17_ecyt_001.png Size: 163 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,972
  • Jun 18, 2014 1:37pm Jun 18, 2014 1:37pm
stocks up, bonds up, gold up....Yellen must be talking....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,973
  • Jun 18, 2014 1:41pm Jun 18, 2014 1:41pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasu...171848681.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,974
  • Jun 19, 2014 2:40pm Jun 19, 2014 2:40pm
I am using IB platform. I have added OI and Implied Volatillity % as columns, but I cant find IV rank for example... Is it there but only under some other name?
Attached Image



Also, when I watch tastytrade vids, they can see on thinkorswim platform the probability of option expiry ITM or not, like in this good vid (example of trade is at the very end of video). This is a good one.
Inserted Video


Is it also somewhere on IB, maybe on Probability Lab or Strategy Lab or somewhere?
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #3,975
  • Jun 19, 2014 2:43pm Jun 19, 2014 2:43pm
I am stunned today because the market is making some sense and most of my trades (which of course all make perfect sense) are doing well. I have GLD Sep $131 long calls I bought for $0.75 printing $1.77/$1.85 today. I made about a months pay today off the $40 pop in gold, looking for more soon. Bonds are dropping, finally. Looking for continuations in both those moves. Will sell near term GLD calls tomorrow, fingers crossed for another double digit move up in the metal. Happy trades to all....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,976
  • Jun 19, 2014 2:53pm Jun 19, 2014 2:53pm
Quoting StrayDog
I am using IB platform.
Hi StrayDog,

I am not up to speed on either ToS or IB and instead have been putting time into developing my own tools. Typical engineer, I don't trust anybody's calculations but my own....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,977
  • Jun 19, 2014 3:07pm Jun 19, 2014 3:07pm
Hi The Fool,

thanks for your reply. As a non American resident I don't get to choose the broker, but go with the ones that will accept me. IB is very good, no doubt, I just have to go deeper in that platform as far as option trades.

uuups ORCL is down big time... jus saw this, wanted to shut down platform. Never traded ORCL.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #3,978
  • Jun 20, 2014 12:08am Jun 20, 2014 12:08am
Quoting StrayDog
Also, when I watch tastytrade vids, they can see on thinkorswim platform the probability of option expiry ITM or not,
StrayDog,

You might check out https://beta.dough.com/ ...which is the trading platform the TastyTrade guys are putting out there. I'm pretty sure it's still free to demo. (You knew of course Tom Sosnoff on TastyTrade was the original developer of Think or Swim...so maybe dough does or will have similar functionality...)

Then, back on p. 186 of this thread we have some brief discussion of IV Rank.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7489817

IV Rank is very simple to calculate, just need access to historical IV data. You can get at that without having to have a trading account if you have a data feed through iVolatility.com (or others among many) - I'd be surprised if the data service sellers have any restrictions at all on who they will do business with.

Once you have access to raw data you can do whatever you like with it: change the lookback period, snapshot windows x days before and after earnings releases or other significant events, etc, etc....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,979
  • Jun 20, 2014 7:34am Jun 20, 2014 7:34am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} StrayDog, You might check out https://beta.dough.com/ ...
Thanks, I will look at it.


Gold Options Signal More Gains as Yellen Shakes Up Market
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...up-market.html
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #3,980
  • Jun 20, 2014 8:11am Jun 20, 2014 8:11am
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfund...rrons&ru=yahoo

does anyone want to fade the gold move? I'm not feeling it....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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