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Looking for Real Trading Method

  • #181
  • Jun 18, 2014 2:41pm Jun 18, 2014 2:41pm
60 minutes and the science brigade are correct.

every paper written on this subject that has been excepted by the powers that be support this truth.

these papers and excepted truths are based on the fair game,

casinos excepted this truth,and adopted an unfair game,

markets by default are an unfair game,

the truth being ,from a scientific mathematical correct view point pre martingale is the only process with a positive expectancy !BUT ACCORDING TO THE TRUTH OF THE PAPERS THERE IS NO STOP POINT.it does not exist in a fair game.BUT THIS IS NOT A FAIR GAME
  • #182
  • Jun 18, 2014 2:46pm Jun 18, 2014 2:46pm
Quoting lakhan
the fact is technicals are based on fundamentals. Fundamentals drive the market up or down. Technicals are the bits inbetween that everyone here on ff relies on. I don't see many ( i've seen a handful) saying longing cable since 2013 because ive seen the stats for example. Then again i don't have the balls ( or capital, patience whatever) to hold a position for months. Magix. Great results. However you only have those results because of the fundies, even though those results were pure technical. My opinion. May the piperinos be with you
thats not quite true,

the fundies are nothing more than a natural occurance within a cycle,
  • #183
  • Jun 18, 2014 2:55pm Jun 18, 2014 2:55pm
Quoting lakhan
The fact is technicals are based on fundamentals. Fundamentals drive the market up or down. Technicals are the bits inbetween that everyone here on FF relies on. I don't see many ( I've seen a handful) saying longing cable since 2013 because Ive seen the stats for example. Then again I don't have the balls ( or capital, patience whatever) to hold a position for months. Magix. Great results. However you only have those results because of the fundies, even though those results were pure technical. My opinion. May the piperinos be with you

I actually believe that technicals are more due to the fact that we have active and inactive sessions trading around the clock.

Watch the rollover prices on the USD crosses...
Watch the previous day rollover price of GBP during Frankfurt...

These are fundamentals...this is 100% technicals.

Press is already in play before it hits the open market. Money already knows way ahead of the rest of us schleps.

There is an impact from press, and it can drive price...but as far as it technically changing the market...I just don't believe there is any actual quantifiable proof of this.

Spikes through support and resistance are Trends. Spikes into support and resistance are retraces...

Does the sun come up because the rooster crows?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #184
  • Jun 18, 2014 3:29pm Jun 18, 2014 3:29pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} I actually believe that technicals are more due to the fact that we have active and inactive sessions trading around the clock. Watch the rollover prices on the USD crosses... Watch the previous day rollover price of GBP during Frankfurt... These are fundamentals...this is 100% technicals. Press is already in play before it hits the open market. Money already knows way ahead of the rest of us schleps. There is an impact from press, and it can drive price...but as far as it technically changing the market...I just don't believe there is any...
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #185
  • Jun 18, 2014 4:26pm Jun 18, 2014 4:26pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} I actually believe that technicals are more due to the fact that we have active and inactive sessions trading around the clock. Watch the rollover prices on the USD crosses... Watch the previous day rollover price of GBP during Frankfurt... These are fundamentals...this is 100% technicals. Press is already in play before it hits the open market. Money already knows way ahead of the rest of us schleps. There is an impact from press, and it can drive price...but as far as it technically changing the market...I just don't believe there is any...
By spikes into and spikes through do you mean that if a price spikes through the S/R it means that that S/R will be broken, but if it only touches it, it will hold?
  • #186
  • Jun 18, 2014 5:27pm Jun 18, 2014 5:27pm
Quoting merquise
{quote} By spikes into and spikes through do you mean that if a price spikes through the S/R it means that that S/R will be broken, but if it only touches it, it will hold?

Great question...

Have a look at the chart...
1. We see a spike into, what is a supported area...the area held.
2. The spike crushed through the supported area...this was a continuation of trend.

When support is broken, it becomes resistance.

3. We see a spike into resistance, the previous supported area.

How do you know it will hold? You don't...but when you see that it does...what would you do?
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #187
  • Jun 18, 2014 8:04pm Jun 18, 2014 8:04pm
Example B?

Link

Current
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #188
  • Edited 9:48pm Jun 18, 2014 9:24pm | Edited 9:48pm
Quoting ocd
I love this thread Chicky. Only a couple of pompous, foul mouthed hoodlums but some awesome dialogue by everybody else. I am convinced that just about every trading method or system (and I don't care about the semantics) will work...support/resistance, supply/demand, moving averages, bands, channels, indicators, formations, whatever. I am also fully convinced that everything you trust and believe in will fail you when it comes to trading. The chart by 60minuteman was a pretty good example. Here's one sure fire way to prove my point for anyone who...
Thanks for the kind words OCD.

Most of us start trading fascinated by the 50:1 or 100:1 margin, realizing only later that this margin is nothing but a tool to enable people trade pennies instead of dollars. Going deeper, we realize margin can make or break us. Then there are brokers offering (and people really trading) with 400:1 or 500:1 margin. This is what makes people find a way to trade with minimum drawdown. This in its own turn leads to endless efforts in perfecting entries aiming at exactly the right level with 100% precision only because there is either no or very little cushion for a drawdown with high leverage. When these efforts fail, most refuse to accept that perfection does not (and cannot) exist, at least to the narrower limits they have for their stoplosses. They refuse to accept this fact beacuse acceptance of this logical thing shatters their dreams of financial freedom. On getting to this level, they create an illusion that their system works without fail. No matter what others tell them, they refuse to break this illusion of theirs. Unfortunately, this insistence on validity of an invalid and illogical system blocks their minds and they miss good opportunities of creating a good and workable system.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #189
  • Jun 19, 2014 12:25am Jun 19, 2014 12:25am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Maybe, but not for me. You risk, look for reward, its gambling.
Any business investment could be labelled gambling. I owned a vending machine business a while ago. I would approach a site, look at the no. of employees etc to see if it was a viable. I would then purchase a machine for $8,000 for example in the belief that over "x" no. of years it would generate enough sales to pay back the machine and turn a profit to me. However, some sites would turn out to be duds and not generate a fraction of what I anticipated. Eventually i would pull the plug and relocate the machine if possible. This is just the same as trading. In fact I believe trading is pure unadulterated business. When I place a trade I am prepared to risk $8,000 (like the vending machine) but only in the belief that it can generate more than that. Moving the trade to BE is like the machine paying itself off and then enjoying whatever the market/workplace gives me.

Every business venture is based on a risk/reward model, that's why I believe professional gambling is a valid business model. The only gambling which is pointless (or true gambling) is Poker machines because they are purely random, there are no factors you can control or accommodate to gain an edge. A worked as gaming analyst and know this as a fact with regard to Poker machines.
  • #190
  • Jun 19, 2014 12:32am Jun 19, 2014 12:32am
I agree that it is not the system but the trader that makes one profitable (obviously within reason).

I am not consistently profitable but when I look at my trade journal it all comes down to me moving stop losses or risking more than my agreed upon trade plan. Chicky your post about stop losses and moving them was spot on but my conclusion is different. I believe you need to have them but the most difficult thing in trading, at least for me, is not letting winners run but just taking the loss. No matter how many times I say to myself "take the loss" I find myself moving stops and taking a much bigger losses than originally anticipated.

It takes months to build a house but only moments to burn it down. That it what i have struggled with in trading. I will have numerous small winners only to be wiped out by a monstrous loss. It is an inverted R:R. The crazy thing is, I know this but keep repeating the mistakes. I believe it is a gambling mentality that takes over, I need to keep working on it.
  • #191
  • Jun 19, 2014 12:38am Jun 19, 2014 12:38am
Quoting Magix
Example B? Link Current {image}

Magix I've been following your posts for a while, I like you trading style though different to what I am pursuing. I am one of those who is more quiet on these forums because I feel I have more to learn rather promoting my opinion. The only thing I wanted to ask is that don't you agree it all comes down to trade management? You can pick Support/resistance but who knows if it will bounce 5 or 50 pips (or just break though)? Also your SL is relevant. A 20 pip SL with 5 pip TP isn't my style of trading. When I look at your charts, i think that looks good but where would I place my SL and TP? when would I BE? that is what I find is the real challenge with any system, charts are good but trade management is the key.

Cheers.
  • #192
  • Jun 19, 2014 12:43am Jun 19, 2014 12:43am
Quoting oztrader79
{quote}Every business venture is based on a risk/reward model, that's why I believe professional gambling is a valid business model. The only gambling which is pointless (or true gambling) is Poker machines because they are purely random, there are no factors you can control or accommodate to gain an edge. A worked as gaming analyst and know this as a fact with regard to Poker machines.
Excellent analogy. Just like whenever I call my Mom, and when she asks me, "Are you still doing that day trading thing?" "Isn't it basically just gambling?" I then turn the tables on her. First, I ask her, do you have a job? And when she says, duh, yeah. I then point out that she has to drive to work, and when she does, she's taking a gamble at getting into a wreck, while driving to work, to make some money. But just to be safe, she'll put on her seatbelt, just in case, which us traders do, when we put in our SL. Then I ask her, while at work, what if you had a disgruntled employee come walking in and started shooting up the place. Are you going to take that risk to make some money, while at work? The conversation gets awfully quiet after that..............................."So, how's the weather up there, Mom?" I like your poker machine analyst. Good point.
Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #193
  • Jun 19, 2014 12:51am Jun 19, 2014 12:51am
Quoting Chicky
I am NOT a professional trader but have deep interest in foreign currency trading. Have spent many years in this market and have developed and tested countless trading methods, also tested methods invented by others. I don't know how much and what is true in whatever is posted or claimed here. When I say I don't know, I honestly mean I have no means to check accuracy or otherwise of these claims. Therefore, all who claim 3% a year to 3,000% a year are innocent until proven guilty. However, everytime I read a claim about a system that is consistently profitability or profitable out of proportion, I start doubting those claims if they do not mention downside of such systems. I tested several Forex Trading myths or general believes. Without prejudice to anyone believing on these myths, my experience tells me that they may or may not work. When I say myths or believes, these include, but not limited to the following: 1. Fibs work 2. R:R should not be less than 1:1 3. Put a stoploss 4. Don't put a stoploss 5. Realize partial profits 6. Go for big swings 6. Trendline or Support / Resistance Break-Out Trading (Thanks to Jesse Livermore for this) 7. Range Trading 8. It is game of probability (Thanks to Mark Douglas for this one) 8. Trend is your friend (Everyone saw what happened to Wayne Jacko.) 9. Cut your losers and let your winners run .........(and let them as well turn into losers so that we could finally cut them), etc. etc. I don't say these myths work or they do not work. I simply say I don't know if they work or not. Thanks to FF Thread Moderator who modified a bit the title of this thread to make it more appropriate. It sounds better. I will try my best to keep this thread as clean and useful as possible contributing only what is good and logical.





If by "Real Trading Method" you mean "profitable"
Then the method to use is one that closes all trades for a profit.
(This is the secret for making money in the forex)
  • #194
  • Jun 19, 2014 1:01am Jun 19, 2014 1:01am
Quoting Chicky
I am NOT a professional trader but have deep interest in foreign currency trading. Have spent many years in this market and have developed and tested countless trading methods, also tested methods invented by others. I don't know how much and what is true in whatever is posted or claimed here. When I say I don't know, I honestly mean I have no means to check accuracy or otherwise of these claims. Therefore, all who claim 3% a year to 3,000% a year are innocent until proven guilty. However, everytime I read a claim about a system that is consistently...
I don't trust in any technical analysis as the reason to make a trade. Predicting markets is very dificult, specially if you want to predict more than 25 pips. I also don't believe in trends in the market.
I do believe in themes, markets tell a narrative, you will never see anything irrational on a market. Markets will always self-correct if its irrational. A irrational market would be a market that can't go any higher (any lower) and someone buys (sells) that is irrationality, you wont ever see it in a market.
  • #195
  • Jun 19, 2014 1:03am Jun 19, 2014 1:03am
I'm saying this because all your myths are "technical analysis"ish, so thats my opinion on all on this
  • #196
  • Jun 19, 2014 1:11am Jun 19, 2014 1:11am
Quoting merquise
Interesting video... http://youtu.be/y1tb9lNZQhg

Great video. He mentions about the difficulty of taking a loss and also how most businesses fail, just like most traders, so its nothing unique. Also the need for precise execution of trades, not jumping in to early or to late. He's quite down to earth.

Thanks for that link!
  • #197
  • Jun 19, 2014 2:43am Jun 19, 2014 2:43am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Most of us start trading fascinated by the 50:1 or 100:1 margin, realizing only later that this margin is nothing but a tool to enable people trade pennies instead of dollars. Going deeper, we realize margin can make or break us. Then there are brokers offering (and people really trading) with 400:1 or 500:1 margin. This is what makes people find a way to trade with minimum drawdown. This in its own turn leads to endless efforts in perfecting entries aiming at exactly the right level with 100% precision only...

This post for this SPECIFIC subject that Chicky has dialed into is both awesome and devastating.

A beginner is pure in his innocence and his naivety. A beginner will have much trouble using any system because of all the confusion he creates for himself. My opinion, develop a trading set of skills using a demo account with a million dollars...and attempt to have 50 straight successful trades. A foundation of successful trading is crucial. Margin smargin - if you can't trade then 1:1 or 400:1 matters little.

If this process is NOT done then an inexperienced trader will soon box himself in (just like Chicky said) looking for the perfect entry/stoploss set up.

Had the rookie trader opened the demo account and entered trades (preferably really bad trades) then he could hone his exit skills. A good entry is the preference but it's the exit that determines the profit or the loss. We must always fall forward.

Much like sex, a wonderful conclusion to the event is remembered longer than the initial entry.
Everything easy was hard at first
  • #198
  • Jun 19, 2014 3:14am Jun 19, 2014 3:14am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Great question... Have a look at the chart... 1. We see a spike into, what is a supported area...the area held. 2. The spike crushed through the supported area...this was a continuation of trend. When support is broken, it becomes resistance. 3. We see a spike into resistance, the previous supported area. How do you know it will hold? You don't...but when you see that it does...what would you do? {image}
So what you're saying is if a price spikes through the S/R level, get ready for it to be broken some time into the future? Like some sort of a glimpse into what's going to happen...
  • #199
  • Jun 19, 2014 3:41am Jun 19, 2014 3:41am
Quoting merquise
{quote} So what you're saying is if a price spikes through the S/R level, get ready for it to be broken some time into the future? Like some sort of a glimpse into what's going to happen...
Even prior to working with EAs and code...

I always thought of market and price in terms of, IF/THEN.

IF support gets broken, THEN the previous support will get tested as resistance.
IF Support Holds, THEN we can continue to be long...

Tested does not necessarily mean that any support or resistance area will hold, it just means that we can effectively find these areas and use them to look for opportunities.

If you buys support and support fails, you can see this and find a quick back door. Depending on your frame of reference by time or range that you trade, you are either flipping on your decision after cutting losses, or you are waiting for the area to be tested on a longer time line and looking for a larger range.

A glimpse into the future...I would say so...

Look at the chart that was posted HERE.

And look at the current.

IF you bought support, or in this area, can you see where you would have to cut losses?

IF support held...IF support failed...THEN?
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #200
  • Jun 19, 2014 3:50am Jun 19, 2014 3:50am
Then reverse the trade if it fails, no? I am thinking like that..if the support fails I will set a SL below it and another sell stop there Actually it's what I did this morning on demo acc
I'm trying to grasp what you said..for this week on EURAUD price retraced and exactly touched the 61.8 Fib level

https://charts.mql5.com/5/12/euraud-...l-services.png
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