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LON-NY Breakout

  • #41
  • Jun 15, 2014 4:33pm Jun 15, 2014 4:33pm
As far as I can see you are trading the sessions from the day before, isn't this strategy only working in trending market conditions, because if it's ranging, there would be absolutely no breakout, since both sessions overlap and they make the major market movements?
  • #42
  • Jun 15, 2014 4:45pm Jun 15, 2014 4:45pm
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting ksofty
As far as I can see you are trading the sessions from the day before, isn't this strategy only working in trending market conditions, because if it's ranging, there would be absolutely no breakout, since both sessions overlap and they make the major market movements?
Yes this should work well in trending markets with nice clean breaks. We want to avoid ranging days especially where we get false breakouts. You will see from the charts that there are not many days where there is no breakout.
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #43
  • Jun 15, 2014 5:28pm Jun 15, 2014 5:28pm
Yes, I get it, but I'm looking at g/u right now and it was in range for the better part of the last 2 weeks. Same thing with e/g so that means you're left with 1-2 pairs according to your trading plan, which is like putting all eggs in one basket. I'm trading at least 12 pairs and there is always a trend to find, but in your case this should be revised. And one more advice (or call it as you wish) - you aren't trading breakouts in a trending market, because if you were, you would just catch the trend and ride it until the end, but what you do is risk a lot of money (since the breakout range is somehow all the market volatility throughout a trading day) and you are trying to catch minor profits in such conditions where you can earn your profit x1000. I don't want to be 'the negative person' in here, but really, have a look! This breakout is nonsense! Imagine that you get only one S/L hit - all your profits fly away. It may seem profitable, but if you ignore the details and look at the bigger picture - a breakout strategy should be working even if the market is in the worst range you've ever seen. In your case, you catch a trend and leave it, on the next day you catch it again and then leave it... So if you want to improve it, you've got 2 options - either find a tighter range somewhere OR just stay with the trend. I sincerely hope you get my post from the positive side.

P.S. If you don't trust what I'm saying - fit your strategy into EA code - it's easy to implement and allows to be backtested.
  • #44
  • Jun 15, 2014 11:18pm Jun 15, 2014 11:18pm
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting ksofty
Yes, I get it, but I'm looking at g/u right now and it was in range for the better part of the last 2 weeks. Same thing with e/g so that means you're left with 1-2 pairs according to your trading plan, which is like putting all eggs in one basket. I'm trading at least 12 pairs and there is always a trend to find, but in your case this should be revised. And one more advice (or call it as you wish) - you aren't trading breakouts in a trending market, because if you were, you would just catch the trend and ride it until the end, but what you do is...
I appreciate your comments but everyone will have their own way of trading this as they see fit. What I hope I have done here by opening this thread is to share with members what I feel is a good point to catch some strong moves. Some people will look at it and see an opportunity others will think waste of time! Fair enough everyone is entitled to their views. My strategy is more of a scalping method while trying to catch a bigger move. I believe this will fit with my trading style and overall allow me to meet my daily profit goals without the need to hold it for days on end. Others may develop their own strategy where they hold onto it as long as possible.
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #45
  • Jun 15, 2014 11:30pm Jun 15, 2014 11:30pm
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
I did not catch this one as I had not set my orders.

E/J

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpyh1-20140626-01.png Size: 12 KB
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #46
  • Jun 16, 2014 9:57am Jun 16, 2014 9:57am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
A lot of fake breaks today. Maybe because it is a Monday and no major news?

Not a great start but early days....let's see what tomorrow brings.

My lot sizes are not correct at the moment. My lot size calculator is misleading me. I had planned to risk 2% a trade. Will hopefully sort it out for tomorrow.
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #47
  • Jun 16, 2014 12:18pm Jun 16, 2014 12:18pm
Yep...today was a bitch,
Difficult for me to read the markets today, patience , patience , patience
  • #48
  • Jun 16, 2014 11:23pm Jun 16, 2014 11:23pm
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Added updated template on 1st post

I noticed that the old template had the wrong start for London Session. LON-NY Session is 10:00 - 24:00 on my server (GMT +2)
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #49
  • Jun 16, 2014 11:25pm Jun 16, 2014 11:25pm
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Also will be adding a new explorer from a different broker. I had issues working out the required lot sizes on the other account and was not able to manage it properly. I will leave the old explorer up there for now.

The first trade was just to get the explorer going and to check lot sizing
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #50
  • Jun 17, 2014 3:13am Jun 17, 2014 3:13am
Hi Neio,

Just for fun I've tested your breakout system on GBPUSD. I've taken last 6 months.
I've checked if there were any breakout between 22-8 am and calculated its size.
We had 119 sesions and 46 breakouts (39%)
Here is detailed statistics:

25 up
21 down

Up breakouts:
6 less 10 pips (24%)
19 more than 10 pips (76%)

Down breakouts:
10 less than 10 pips (48%)
11 more than 10 pips (52%)

As GBPUSD is in uptrend safest strategy was to go with the trend and put your pendings only in that direction (16% of situations would end in 10+ pips move)
  • #51
  • Jun 17, 2014 2:32pm Jun 17, 2014 2:32pm
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting Szpons
Hi Neio, Just for fun I've tested your breakout system on GBPUSD. I've taken last 6 months. I've checked if there were any breakout between 22-8 am and calculated its size. We had 119 sesions and 46 breakouts (39%) Here is detailed statistics: 25 up 21 down Up breakouts: 6 less 10 pips (24%) 19 more than 10 pips (76%) Down breakouts: 10 less than 10 pips (48%) 11 more than 10 pips (52%) As GBPUSD is in uptrend safest strategy was to go with the trend and put your pendings only in that direction (16% of situations would end in 10+ pips move)
Hi Szpons,

Thank you for sharing. Did you test this manually?

Regards

Neio
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #52
  • Jun 17, 2014 2:55pm Jun 17, 2014 2:55pm
Quoting Neio
{quote} Hi Szpons, Thank you for sharing. Did you test this manually? Regards Neio
If you ask did I write EA, no I didn't. I'm not a programmer.
I've tested the strategy in excel using 1h MT4 data.
  • #53
  • Jul 6, 2014 9:46pm Jul 6, 2014 9:46pm
Quoting Szpons
{quote} If you ask did I write EA, no I didn't. I'm not a programmer. I've tested the strategy in excel using 1h MT4 data.
Hi Neio,
any updates?
  • #54
  • Jul 10, 2014 12:09am Jul 10, 2014 12:09am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting Patmontes
{quote} Hi Neio, any updates?
Hi Patmontes,

Thank you for your interest. Yes I traded this for about two weeks and ended positive but due to lack of interest and the lack of time and attention required to trade this manually I have abandoned for now.

I made a few mistakes on the demo due to my lack of attention. I was also trying a hedging strategy rather than stop loss to try and unlock trades that went against me at a later date. Worked pretty well.

Regards

Neio
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #55
  • Jul 10, 2014 10:39pm Jul 10, 2014 10:39pm
Is it okay with you if i seek help in another Forum to help code this to an EA to set pending orders automatically?
  • #56
  • Jul 10, 2014 10:49pm Jul 10, 2014 10:49pm
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting Patmontes
Is it okay with you if i seek help in another Forum to help code this to an EA to set pending orders automatically?

Fine by me.

Regards

Neio
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #57
  • Jul 23, 2014 3:43pm Jul 23, 2014 3:43pm
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Sorry everyone....I know I abandoned this for a while...was busy working on a few things.

I hope someone saw the potential. Anyone had any joy trading this?

I am going to use this for a live account that I am setting up for my set-and-forget style trade just on the E/J pair over the next few weeks. Trades will be set after NY closing with a fixed SL/TP. Will attach an explorer so everyone can watch the progress.

Stay tuned!

Neio
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #58
  • Jul 23, 2014 5:02pm Jul 23, 2014 5:02pm
Following!!!!
  • #59
  • Edited 6:07am Jul 26, 2014 3:13am | Edited 6:07am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
For my buddies. Trade Explorer is up in my profile. Account will be live from Monday.

Will be looking to enter on E/J at the following levels shortly after market open:

Entry
Buy 137.26
Sell 136.64

With a 12 pip SL and 24 pip TP.

Please note this is my first time trading this live so will be starting with a small account. I have back-tested this and believe this system has an edge.

Regards

Neio
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #60
  • Jul 26, 2014 6:08am Jul 26, 2014 6:08am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Just corrected the post above because I realised I put buy for both orders when of course one is a buy and the other is a sell as follows:

Entry
Buy 137.26
Sell 136.64

Regards

Neio
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
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