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Fractals, ZZ & the Pissing Dog

  • #741
  • Jun 15, 2014 11:02pm Jun 15, 2014 11:02pm
Quoting jimsterk
another try {image} maybe improving... {quote} currently i feel they are not very important, but i have to do backtest more. i need rest.
Great,

How do you calculate the big candle ? Example: ATR(5) is 5.28 pips. Current big candle is 25.32 pips (bull candle).
How many candle do you divide that 25.32 bull candle ? And all of them are bullish candle after dividing ?

Thanks
-pedma
Good friends are more valuable than gold ...
  • #742
  • Edited 11:04am Jun 16, 2014 10:36am | Edited 11:04am
continue on from yesterday post
obviously not good...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu11.png Size: 38 KB


@madmoney
nothing new. i keep tweaking to find best entry/exit points.
i have not experienced aha yet.
do you also play with this algo?

@samuelkanu
thank you.
im not sure if i am getting closer or not, but its fun

@pedma
25.32/5.28=4.795455.....
i round off it to 5. so bar length is now 5.
but the big bull candle is still "1", not "11111".
this is what i am doing so far, even i have never tried other methods.
im not good programmer and it takes loooong time.

edit: i found this post
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7445410#post7445410
"If it is, than the algo count that bar as 2 or 3 bars for the probabilities calculation."
if the probabilities calculation means next bar in opposite direction, it seems "1" becomes "11111". but im not sure...
  • #743
  • Jun 16, 2014 11:38am Jun 16, 2014 11:38am
Quoting jimsterk
continue on from yesterday post obviously not good... {image} @madmoney nothing new. i keep tweaking to find best entry/exit points. i have not experienced aha yet. do you also play with this algo? @samuelkanu thank you. im not sure if i am getting closer or not, but its fun @pedma...
Hey Jim, are you updating the database with only "error" predictions?

Yea I'm tinkering around with my algo, should be finished soon.
  • #744
  • Jun 17, 2014 11:38pm Jun 17, 2014 11:38pm
Quoting Madmoney
{quote} Hey Jim, are you updating the database with only "error" predictions? Yea I'm tinkering around with my algo, should be finished soon.
hi madmoney,
i am trying to put everything simple, so no adaptability, no error prediction, no 3-doors, and no atr5.



and this is next day prediciton.
blue rectangles are where i choke myself
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu3.png Size: 36 KB


possibly good mm can bring some $$ if i real-trade with this algo, but i dont like gambling.
i stop posting current algo, i will create new one.

has anyone got acceptable result?

thank you,
  • #745
  • Jun 18, 2014 4:43am Jun 18, 2014 4:43am
Quoting jimsterk
{quote} hi madmoney, i am trying to put everything simple, so no adaptability, no error prediction, no 3-doors, and no atr5. and this is next day prediciton. blue rectangles are where i choke myself {image} possibly good mm can bring some $$ if i real-trade with this algo, but i dont like gambling. i stop posting current algo, i will create new one. has anyone got acceptable result? thank you,
Hi Jim,

I started working on this as well 2 days ago. I'm not getting that good results. I'm actually getting very few signals. Did you use the Custom ZigZag and the SmallCatsFractals indicators?

Also do you run the calculation on each fractal to see if that fractal is a turning point or do you run it on each new bar? For example, if the last ZigZag on the chart is a bottom, then do you check on each new fractal if the prediction for the current bar a top of the ZigZag and fractals and a down bar? This is the logic that I'm a bit confused about..

Thanks for any clarification!
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #746
  • Jun 18, 2014 6:12pm Jun 18, 2014 6:12pm
Here is how mine looks like now.. got too many signals.

In the last step, where you check to see if the current candle pattern is the most probable compared to the next, do you only say its true if it is the highest for each and every bitstring?

For example..

probability of next Next Array for the next bar being an up bar vs down bar
[ Up Count , Down Count, Difference ]
[ 23520, 24344, -824 ],
[ 12251, 12127, 124 ],
[ 6187, 6090, 97 ],
[ 3127, 3161, -34 ],
[ 1644, 1515, 129 ],
[ 855, 750, 105 ],
[ 397, 362, 35 ],
[ 214, 184, 30 ]

Total bit strings up = 6
Total bit strings = 8
Total P of next being up = 6/8 = 75%

Here there were 2 bitStrings where a down bar next was more probable.

Should I only take if its over 60% or should it be 100%?
Also did you guys understand the error handling? I was very confused.. has this been programmed into yours?

Thank you!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 22 KB
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #747
  • Jun 18, 2014 6:27pm Jun 18, 2014 6:27pm
Quoting saver0
Here is how mine looks like now.. got too many signals. In the last step, where you check to see if the current candle pattern is the most probable compared to the next, do you only say its true if it is the highest for each and every bitstring? For example.. probability of next Next Array for the next bar being an up bar vs down bar [ Up Count , Down Count, Difference ] [ 23520, 24344, -824 ], [ 12251, 12127, 124 ], [ 6187, 6090, 97 ], [ 3127, 3161, -34 ], [ 1644, 1515, 129 ], [ 855, 750, 105 ], [ 397, 362, 35 ], [ 214, 184, 30 ] Total bit strings...
Have you read Crodzilla's document of how to calculate probabilities?
  • #748
  • Jun 18, 2014 7:53pm Jun 18, 2014 7:53pm
Quoting Madmoney
{quote} Have you read Crodzilla's document of how to calculate probabilities?
Yes I have Madmoney. Wondering if its any different from it now. Are you getting similar results to gg now?
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #749
  • Jun 18, 2014 8:20pm Jun 18, 2014 8:20pm
Quoting saver0
{quote} Yes I have Madmoney. Wondering if its any different from it now. Are you getting similar results to gg now?
i have the same question. Is there some one has the same result as GG ? It would very nice, if he/she share a clue how he/she doing it technically (using which database, creating own DLL/using wrapper, what programming language is used beside MQL, etc ...etc ... ) and may be some other non-technical information
  • #750
  • Jun 18, 2014 8:21pm Jun 18, 2014 8:21pm
Quoting saver0
{quote} Yes I have Madmoney. Wondering if its any different from it now. Are you getting similar results to gg now?
Not quite, I have three more things to implement and I believe I should see an improvement.
  • #751
  • Jun 18, 2014 10:30pm Jun 18, 2014 10:30pm
its a huge surprise that spain is already out...

hi saver0,
i used built-in zigzag indicator and fractal indicator to export the data. (used icustom and ifractal)
i have never checked SmallCatsFractals indicators before.
i currently did up-down-up-down..., so i always look for opposite signal. no double ups, no double downs.
but because of this, i sometimes miss good entry point.
and i always look for 100% probability, according to your explanation.
please remind that this is just my way of calculation. there are too many interpretations and too many logic.
i do not know the complete blue print of forex gt arrow.

hi elen21168,
so far, i have never seen the person who has got the same result.
gg53 stated there are some silent ones, but they are too silent...
there are so many people helped each other in order to achieve good result for almost 1 year, but i am sure they used different languages.
i use R because i can only use R. i am not a programmer and i am very slow minded.

i just want to keep alive this thread
  • #752
  • Jun 18, 2014 10:40pm Jun 18, 2014 10:40pm
Quoting jimsterk
its a huge surprise that spain is already out...
Really
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #753
  • Jun 18, 2014 10:58pm Jun 18, 2014 10:58pm
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} Really
my guess was spain vs brazil, like confederations cup final. but it will never happen
  • #754
  • Jun 18, 2014 11:20pm Jun 18, 2014 11:20pm
Quoting jimsterk
{quote} my guess was spain vs brazil, like confederations cup final. but it will never happen
Sure not in 2014 !!!

BTW and after seeing the Brazil results, I doubt that they will go to final ... Neymar won't do it alone.

2014 should be for Germany or Holland ... and of course I have great hope for France
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #755
  • Jun 18, 2014 11:40pm Jun 18, 2014 11:40pm
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} Sure not in 2014 !!! BTW and after seeing the Brazil results, I doubt that they will go to final ... Neymar won't do it alone. 2014 should be for Germany or Holland ... and of course I have great hope for France
yes, so far germany and holland are outstanding!
these days, i think brazil is good at defense and not very talented for offence. anyway, brazil is at home and so...
argentina, always messi and others...
tomorrow is the biggest match: japan vs greek!
i am japanese and so i have to wake up early and
  • #756
  • Jun 19, 2014 12:21am Jun 19, 2014 12:21am
Quoting jimsterk
i am japanese and so i have to wake up early and
I am also located in Asia and the matches times are not the best for us !
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #757
  • Jun 19, 2014 12:25am Jun 19, 2014 12:25am
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} I am also located in Asia and the matches times are not the best for us !
me too. match start 7:00am in my time zone.

and be careful about this:
https://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/blogs/the-rio-report/chinese-fan-dies-staying-watch-world-cup-095517534.html
  • #758
  • Jun 21, 2014 12:28am Jun 21, 2014 12:28am
me too 1st 9pm, 2nd 12pm, 3rd 3am.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #759
  • Jun 23, 2014 5:20pm Jun 23, 2014 5:20pm
Quoting jimsterk
continue on from yesterday post obviously not good... {image} @madmoney nothing new. i keep tweaking to find best entry/exit points. i have not experienced aha yet. do you also play with this algo? @samuelkanu thank you. im not sure if i am getting closer or not, but its fun @pedma 25.32/5.28=4.795455..... i round off it to 5. so bar length is now 5. but the big bull candle is still "1", not "11111". this is what i am doing so far, even i have never tried other methods. im not good programmer and it takes loooong time. edit: i found this...
Jim, your results are really good, considering the fact you have not implemented quite a few of gg's algo rules, I still think once those are implemented you would either hit the nail on the head or be very close.

This thread has become dead and without gg clearing up any misinterpretations or someone discovering what is missing by themselves and sharing, we are all stuck in the mud! It's unfortunate.

MM
  • #760
  • Jun 23, 2014 6:06pm Jun 23, 2014 6:06pm
I am curious how gg managed to create this algo straight from his head. Yes creativity is good and it's enjoyable to try out new things but if you are in the 20th version of your indicator and the results are more or less random and no one has ever done it before how did he keep himself motivated to move along? I don'T think he managed to get everything correct on the first try.
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