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A delicate secret

  • #521
  • Jun 13, 2014 9:17am Jun 13, 2014 9:17am
Version 4:

- added Largest Bullish Deviation in pips.
- added Largest Bearish Deviation in pips.
- added # of chart bars

Carl



PS. Sorry I keep throwing new versions out... but, "that's how I roll."

PSS. Wait... there was an error. fixing...

PSSS. Good to go.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 !crodzilla-Price action V4.mq4   7 KB | 615 downloads
  • #522
  • Jun 13, 2014 9:18am Jun 13, 2014 9:18am
Quoting TradeFinder
{quote} Hi, excellent work on the indie I have been drawing these by hand for the last week on a single chart but adding each timeframe as i scroll through them. I operate a colour convention for all my TF's M1=white, M5=lime, M15=yellow, M30=orange, H1=aqua, H4=red, D1=hotpink, W1= Darkorchid and MN1=silver This helps any multiscreen/desktop/chart setup to instantly understand the Tf of origin whether this or stochastic (MTF), fractals (MTF) or any graphical object Now with the original price point it had a variable for TF and I put multiple indies...

Hi just attached a copy of yesterdays GJ response to Carneys comments

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpym5.png Size: 30 KB
  • #523
  • Edited 10:15am Jun 13, 2014 9:40am | Edited 10:15am
Keep in mind that as your terminal adds bars (to history), your stats may change.

*** I have noticed that I have to change timeframes several times to get MT4 to cooperate, and allow for accurate stats.

I can't help that.

It also helps if you know how to manually force MT4 to load more data.

Carl
  • #524
  • Jun 13, 2014 10:50am Jun 13, 2014 10:50am
As someone rightly said, youre quite the gentleman Carl. Thank you for the indicator.
  • #525
  • Jun 13, 2014 11:10am Jun 13, 2014 11:10am
Quoting crodzilla
Version 4: - added Largest Bullish Deviation in pips. - added Largest Bearish Deviation in pips. - added # of chart bars Carl PS. Sorry I keep throwing new versions out... but, "that's how I roll." PSS. Wait... there was an error. fixing... PSSS. Good to go. {file}

Please don't even think of apologizing Crodzilla!

So awesome you share your programming skills ...I have zero.
  • #526
  • Jun 13, 2014 11:24am Jun 13, 2014 11:24am
Version 5:

-Added: Largest Open BULLISH deviation
-Added: Largest Open BEARISH deviation

Carl
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 !crodzilla-Price action V5.mq4   8 KB | 692 downloads
  • #527
  • Jun 13, 2014 11:37am Jun 13, 2014 11:37am
hi everyone,

these pictures are what i learned from eurusdd.
i have no idea when the price return to these levels.
levels in the pictures are all good and successful, but if i backtest 2010-2013, some levels grow +50 days and +400pips...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu1.png Size: 21 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.png Size: 21 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu3.png Size: 21 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu4.png Size: 20 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu5.png Size: 21 KB


i have one question.
do you have any idea about how to maximise the profit from these signals?
once eurusdd said he do not use stop loss but he hedges, but i cannot create good strategy so far...

have a good weekend watching world cup!
jim,
  • #528
  • Jun 13, 2014 11:40am Jun 13, 2014 11:40am
Quoting crodzilla
Version 5: -Added: Largest Open BULLISH deviation -Added: Largest Open BEARISH deviation Carl {file}
You make us blush with ur humbleness .
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #529
  • Jun 13, 2014 11:41am Jun 13, 2014 11:41am
Quoting crodzilla
Version 5: -Added: Largest Open BULLISH deviation -Added: Largest Open BEARISH deviation Carl {file}
Carl thanks for the indicator, I was going to ask M Laden to make it at Tsd but surprise surprise here it is.

could you please explain the significance of the bullish and bearish deviation.

thanks

Eamonn.
  • #530
  • Jun 13, 2014 11:43am Jun 13, 2014 11:43am
Quoting crodzilla
Version 5: -Added: Largest Open BULLISH deviation -Added: Largest Open BEARISH deviation Carl {file}
thank you for the indicator, carl!
i try it during the weekend!
  • #531
  • Jun 13, 2014 12:15pm Jun 13, 2014 12:15pm
Quoting jimsterk
hi everyone, these pictures are what i learned from eurusdd. i have no idea when the price return to these levels. levels in the pictures are all good and successful, but if i backtest 2010-2013, some levels grow +50 days and +400pips... {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} i have one question. do you have any idea about how to maximise the profit from these signals? once eurusdd said he do not use stop loss but he hedges, but i cannot create good strategy so far... have a good weekend watching world cup! jim,
If we think of the levels as providing signals then only one strategy is clear to me at the moment but I suspect its a 'dangerous' one. (i.e. placing entry and exit pending orders at x and y points of the 'signal' candle; with the SL above/beneath the nearest pronounced support or resistance zone). However I surmise the R:R ratios and win-rate would be terrible but I could be very wrong since I've no tests done.

If we think of the levels as profit targets then we can use them as a rough measure for R:R ratios with signals generated from any other normal TA systems we already individually apply, of course we'd still require a dynamic exit function that adjusts to market conditions (in case the price doesnt make it to said level before significantly reversing)

Would be interesting to hear what everyone else is thinking.

Ps. I've got a question concerning the indicator stats. While they might vary from broker to broker, does everyone find its relative descriptions are consistent? For example, if the indi on Broker A account states that un-cleared levels above are greater than un-cleared levels below, Broker B account's indicator also agrees; though the number of levels dont match in Account A and B?
  • #532
  • Jun 13, 2014 12:44pm Jun 13, 2014 12:44pm
Quoting Thoughts
{quote} Ps. I've got a question concerning the indicator stats. While they might vary from broker to broker, does everyone find its relative descriptions are consistent? For example, if the indi on Broker A account states that un-cleared levels above are greater than un-cleared levels below, Broker B account's indicator also agrees; though the number of levels dont match in Account A and B?
It would be difficult to compare brokers, because you would have to have the exact same number of historical bars for each.
I could probably be done, but, I wouldn't think any deviation would be significant.

Carl
  • #533
  • Jun 13, 2014 12:57pm Jun 13, 2014 12:57pm
Quoting Eamonn
{quote} Carl thanks for the indicator, I was going to ask M Laden to make it at Tsd but surprise surprise here it is. could you please explain the significance of the bullish and bearish deviation. thanks Eamonn.
Someone talked about when you know an average deviation, you could scale in starting from that average deviation.

Just for discussion:
On the GBPUSD 15min you are biased to the long side, why?
Because there are ZERO cleared levels to the upside (because they get cleared).
The largest BEARISH deviation is 138 pips, for the history of 41,696 bars (my chart).
So, when you get a LONG signal, but prices move down, you can wait for a 75 pip drawdown (or whatever your risk tolerance is).
Then start buying. You can scale in or whatever, with a target at the LONG signal, because there is a higher probability that they get cleared.
The average time to wait is 129 bars, or a little over 32 hours.

I guess we need a good strategy tester, or a way to easily test different strategies.

I don't know if there is anything out there that will do that.

Carl
  • #534
  • Jun 13, 2014 1:02pm Jun 13, 2014 1:02pm
Quoting Eamonn
{quote} Carl thanks for the indicator, I was going to ask M Laden to make it at Tsd but surprise surprise here it is. could you please explain the significance of the bullish and bearish deviation. thanks Eamonn.
You are welcome Eamonn!

If you get a BULLISH signal, but prices move down, the BEARISH deviation is how far (maximum) that prices have moved before returning to the BULLISH signal.
If you get a BEARISH signal, but prices move up, the BULLISH deviation is how far (maximum) that prices have moved before returning to the BEARISH signal.

Carl
  • #535
  • Jun 13, 2014 1:16pm Jun 13, 2014 1:16pm
Quoting crodzilla
{quote} It would be difficult to compare brokers, because you would have to have the exact same number of historical bars for each. I could probably be done, but, I wouldn't think any deviation would be significant. Carl
Thanks Carl. I agree; so if we find that the number of levels above or below provide any bias for future price direction then everyone using your indicator should have the same expectation.
  • #536
  • Jun 13, 2014 1:30pm Jun 13, 2014 1:30pm
Good day to all! Been following the branches EURUSDD, but the greatest benefit brought Carl. Heartily thanks.
  • #537
  • Edited 3:26pm Jun 13, 2014 2:17pm | Edited 3:26pm
Version 6:

-Lets you choose # of bars to use for historical analysis.


Interestingly, I found that stats can change dramatically due to change in market dynamics.
You can choose how far back you would like to use.

Initially, the smaller timeframes have some interesting potential profit profiles.
Must study more.

Carl

- DELETED INDY DUE TO BUGS.
  • #538
  • Edited 3:25pm Jun 13, 2014 3:10pm | Edited 3:25pm
Found some more bugs...

Updated V6 - bugs fixed. Please download this one and delete the one from above (deleted from post).

Carl
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 !crodzilla-Price action V6.mq4   8 KB | 653 downloads
  • #539
  • Jun 13, 2014 3:42pm Jun 13, 2014 3:42pm
Quoting crodzilla
Found some more bugs... Updated V6 - bugs fixed. Please download this one and delete the one from above (deleted from post). Carl {file}
Thanks for all the work Carl. Interesting profit profiles indeed. I haven't started applying some of the deviation ideas, but managed 32% growth in the last week and a half applying just the concept. Basically scaling in every 50 pips (4hour chart) looking for a return to the indicated levels. Pretty good stuff. Pretty exciting to consider adding in some more sophisticated layers.
  • #540
  • Jun 13, 2014 4:02pm Jun 13, 2014 4:02pm
Carl - thanks for version 6. A question - if you you went back say 10 years on some pairs and still found levels that hadn't been returned to wouldn't that rather disprove the theory to some extent?
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