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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #47,081
  • Edited 12:42am Jun 13, 2014 12:14am | Edited 12:42am
Quoting fti
is either bulls no trust each other or is bear trap trying small shorts. aud also topping i start bargainsellings.

for AUD

1:30am CNYIndustrial Production
CNYFixed Asset Investment ytd
CNYRetail Sales

....

V
  • #47,082
  • Jun 13, 2014 12:45am Jun 13, 2014 12:45am
Quoting fti
{quote} nothing to blame. just need manage it best you can. otherwise run for cover. i cannot tell you what i would do, you probably already knows. By the way, i wondering is pain exceeding 3%?or X3 normal P&L. no need answer me. i just trying help you strategise in your mind. regards
Pain greater than 3%, less than 10%. Eating into past gains, not exceeding. Willing to wait & rescue some of the position when I feel it is time to do so.
  • #47,083
  • Jun 13, 2014 1:04am Jun 13, 2014 1:04am
wonder where euro will be come 4pm .. this week one big whale + (many penguins) push market very scary...
  • #47,084
  • Jun 13, 2014 1:08am Jun 13, 2014 1:08am
Quoting fti
{quote} fighter? huh, so long as health allows hor, my friend. Don't become like me. i am too hard head also, still not regrets. probably my friends predicted right. die standing type personality. Now already conferred title "last yoyo still standing". but only because we not in touch with the next wave. regards
chief It was fun, this one day is more than of last 2 week out put. no result posting
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #47,085
  • Jun 13, 2014 2:04am Jun 13, 2014 2:04am
Quoting fti
{quote} phil, are you going back to indicators trading? Just that i sensing that feel from the charting. regards

Hi fti

The boxes in my chart were hand drawn in MS paint, to try to explain what I was trying to say in the previous post, all I have on my charts while trading is the 2x 12 MA’S (one set at high and one set at low), am I relying on them to much?? , I am using them as a second aid/tool to help me not take trades to early which is something I find myself doing especially when my confidence grows I have noticed, I am not looking for price to cross anything to trigger me to trade, I use the daily 3k’s + X’s to detect possible movement or levels that I am interested in.......

Hmmm, reading what I have just wrote I am trying to justify this to myself I think. The back of my mind is saying of course your right it’s just my lack of ??? something.

I know you have only mentioned this as I am obviously straying a little from where I should be, I will take some time out to think about whether I really need the MA’s on my charts or whether I need a bit more discipline/patience/thinking/??? before I enter some of my trades. it is not like i am going through a bad patch in my trading, maybe i am trying to fix something that ain't broke??? or over complicating things???.

Thank you so much the lessons yesterday and for highlighting this my friend .

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #47,086
  • Jun 13, 2014 2:07am Jun 13, 2014 2:07am
now euro shorts ave 66.5

ave 69.9
  • #47,087
  • Jun 13, 2014 2:32am Jun 13, 2014 2:32am
in this market feels like getting water out of stone....

V
  • #47,088
  • Jun 13, 2014 2:34am Jun 13, 2014 2:34am
Quoting indianguyinny24
in this market feels like getting water out of stone.... V
calm before the storm
  • #47,089
  • Jun 13, 2014 5:58am Jun 13, 2014 5:58am
dozed off.

just squared 45

looks like cable markets trying to build in a 50 basis rates hike.
but maybe too early? so some nervous bulls profitaking.
looks like the ambience will remain.
i don't feel too exceptionally bearish today and range is already wide.
so mwybe i'll start looking for a bottom somewhere, when the pooping stops.


regards
  • #47,090
  • Jun 13, 2014 6:02am Jun 13, 2014 6:02am
Quoting fti
dozed off. just squared 45


making money while napping!! "dream" job for everyone..
  • #47,091
  • Jun 13, 2014 6:03am Jun 13, 2014 6:03am
mine was short @1.3567 close @1.3545
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #47,092
  • Jun 13, 2014 6:05am Jun 13, 2014 6:05am
just leave the baby when she was at 1.3562. little napping due to last night over time TP was set to 1.3545 support area. no chart this time.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #47,093
  • Jun 13, 2014 6:08am Jun 13, 2014 6:08am
Quoting fti
dozed off. just squared 45 looks like cable markets trying to build in a 50 basis rates hike. but maybe too early? looks like the ambience will remain. i don't feel too exceptionally bearish today and range is wide. so mwybe i'll start looking for a bottom somewhere, when the pooping stops. regards
your average was around 3567 toooh it was 35 69.9
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #47,094
  • Jun 13, 2014 6:13am Jun 13, 2014 6:13am
Quoting priceaction1
{quote} your average was around 3567 toooh it was 35 69.9
ya
still very sleepy.
i think I'll doze a little more.


regards
  • #47,095
  • Jun 13, 2014 6:14am Jun 13, 2014 6:14am
Quoting kinky
{quote} making money while napping!! "dream" job for everyone..
yes , seems these days maybe sleeping on the job.
body not very reliable already.

regards
  • #47,096
  • Edited 6:57am Jun 13, 2014 6:46am | Edited 6:57am
ok, after cold shower, ahh theres a world.

so whats cooking.

trying read the euro terrain.
peaking ranges 1.3580/00
lop ranges 1.3510/30
body 1.3530/80

ecb wants go negetive rates.
ironlady want up rates.
me not cares either way.

euro cable continues pooping.
question is where to? 0.7750?
now is too deep, need wait stablise a little.
  • #47,097
  • Jun 13, 2014 6:55am Jun 13, 2014 6:55am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi CookieMonsta Sorry for the late reply, I wanted to wait until everyone had finished the trading session so as not to disturb anything. I use the pump and rest motion of the market to try to guess where the ask/bid ranges may be, this takes time out of the equation, the interbank is a 4 digit market that is why the charts are so different. Here is the same retail chart with I hope a better explanation. This is just MY take on trying to work out the IB ask/bid rates no one has shown me this. So don’t take this as a tried and tested thing....
Hi Phil,

thanks for the reply, but won't that make the bid ask accuracy become 1 sided depending on which direction the markets move? which means the other side may require assumptions? also is it better to use the 1 min charts, since we can see how the bid ask readjust themselves in more resolution as compared to the 5mins?
  • #47,098
  • Edited 7:18am Jun 13, 2014 7:03am | Edited 7:18am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Hi Phil, thanks for the reply, but won't that make the bid ask accuracy become 1 sided depending on which direction the markets move? which means the other side may require assumptions? also is it better to use the 1 min charts, since we can see how the bid ask readjust themselves in more resolution as compared to the 5mins?
why?
O mins charts in the mind not good enough for you?

why need be 1 min, 5 mins?
what so special about fixing the time.
sometime 5 hours and not moves.
sometimes 10 seconds , if you stand in front of train , youcould be dead.


already have 5 mins candlebar charts, 15 mins, hourly, 6 hourly. want add more charts?
are you sure being rigid will work?

when i make you prices, i not even sure how many mins before i off my price.
if train coming. could be 1 second. otherwise i could give you few mins decide how much money you want to give me.
in panda land they give you 1 month decide. before refixing price.

Tell me.
is it better measure rate of flow per cubic cm of water in river 1 min 5 min 1 hour or 30 days?
a in a drought
b in a storm.

regards
  • #47,099
  • Jun 13, 2014 7:11am Jun 13, 2014 7:11am
Quoting fti
{quote} why? O mins charts in the mind not good enough for you? why need be 1 min, 5 mins? what so special about fixing the time. sometime 5 hours and not moves. sometimes 10 seconds , if you stand in front of train , youcould be dead. regards
hi fti, i asked about this because i thought the bid ask is read as an analog tape, and by using 5mins chart, we can't see how the gyration of the bid ask moves, which leaves out vital information, like the speed at which the bid ask adjusts itself, unless the read is done from tick to tick.

ah, maybe i got phil wrong, in that he is looking for areas where the bid ask could probably be at, rather than the actual accurate price.
  • #47,100
  • Jun 13, 2014 7:21am Jun 13, 2014 7:21am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hi fti, i asked about this because i thought the bid ask is read as an analog tape, and by using 5mins chart, we can't see how the gyration of the bid ask moves, which leaves out vital information, like the speed at which the bid ask adjusts itself, unless the read is done from tick to tick. ah, maybe i got phil wrong, in that he is looking for areas where the bid ask could probably be at, rather than the actual accurate price.
bid offer spread indicates what situation market feel is in.
sentiment of steadyness of the price.
what has it got to do with time?

ya fortune telling is good business.
I can know things before it happens.
predict mindset.

everyone thinks they can predict, then find need go on their knees.
are you economist? or trader?
they very different . one thinks he can manage, the other manages.
One is a general, the other is a commander, he on the ground.

regards
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