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Oktoberfest Nightclub

  • #5,641
  • Edited Jun 12, 2014 12:39am Jun 11, 2014 10:40pm | Edited Jun 12, 2014 12:39am
Good morning.

You've been busy during the night, I see....

EA: my view, after the break of 4507 the target 4136 is open. Will start at about 456 to short this again. Getting into a long will be tricky for me. In H4 the pair has reached it's final target, but I don't have a new setup, for this I'd need a b/o north and/or a bottom. Wouldn't be too surprised if it gets to 4347 before going upwards for 1000 pips.... (Edit: I guess I have to think what this would imply for correlations, EU at 1.44, AU at 0.83?)
for in AU, we might have finished this run up, but this would be unfortunate, because it might open up a test of the lows sub 0.88 again. I'd rather see this break out 9458, then a substantial retrace and run to 9585.

EU: no clue, Schicks view makes absolute sense, play the range...
GU: waiting for 6876
UJ: how hard can it be to get to frigging 101.79 (and please lower)?
Fail better.
  • #5,642
  • Jun 12, 2014 1:27am Jun 12, 2014 1:27am
Quoting LarryDarrell
Good morning. You've been busy during the night, I see.... EA: my view, after the break of 4507 the target 4136 is open. Will start at about 456 to short this again. Getting into a long will be tricky for me. In H4 the pair has reached it's final target, but I don't have a new setup, for this I'd need a b/o north and/or a bottom. Wouldn't be too surprised if it gets to 4347 before going upwards for 1000 pips.... (Edit: I guess I have to think what this would imply for correlations, EU at 1.44, AU at 0.83?) for in AU, we might have finished this...
morning

to hot here to sleep
  • #5,643
  • Jun 12, 2014 1:40am Jun 12, 2014 1:40am
Quoting Schickeria
EURUSD EU never touched 1.3521/0 most time we go back to 3521/0 to start a new PA to 1.3570. Majormove for today is from 1.3521/0 to 1.3570 {image}
if no lower low of 1.3519/20 1.3570 is norm and in extension 1.3600
  • #5,644
  • Jun 12, 2014 1:43am Jun 12, 2014 1:43am
PA in E/U and E/A is too high for me. Whenever I think I got the bottom, A/U is driving E/A further down and E/U is dropping even more ... waiting game now.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #5,645
  • Jun 12, 2014 1:44am Jun 12, 2014 1:44am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} if no lower low of 1.3519/20 1.3570 is norm and in extension 1.3600
That is what I was hoping for earlier, but the bears keep flexing. Let's see how it turns out.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #5,646
  • Jun 12, 2014 1:47am Jun 12, 2014 1:47am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} That is what I was hoping for earlier, but the bears keep flexing. Let's see how it turns out.
should not be a problem now

SL is green i watch for more upwards on EURUSD 1.35333 is keypoint up or down
  • #5,647
  • Jun 12, 2014 1:52am Jun 12, 2014 1:52am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} should not be a problem now SL is green i watch for more upwards on EURUSD 1.35333 is keypoint up or down
I have been loading longs from 1.3556, but kept it small. The risk of a margin call is always high with a small account if over leveraged. MM is much, much easier with a big account (tried that on Demo with 50 k just for experience for some weeks).
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #5,648
  • Jun 12, 2014 2:43am Jun 12, 2014 2:43am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} morning to hot here to sleep
Cooler here tonight, but heating up again... EU: first b/o south, two little longs stopped at BE, next at 3511 + spread (um). ECad: full position long now, see how that zone holds up. Might have to put that one in 'storage'.
Fail better.
  • #5,649
  • Jun 12, 2014 3:08am Jun 12, 2014 3:08am
Quoting LarryDarrell
next at 3511 + spread (um)
Fail better.
  • #5,650
  • Edited 4:41am Jun 12, 2014 3:55am | Edited 4:41am
Quoting LarryDarrell
Good morning. You've been busy during the night, I see.... EA: my view, after the break of 4507 the target 4136 is open. Will start at about 456 to short this again. Getting into a long will be tricky for me. In H4 the pair has reached it's final target, but I don't have a new setup, for this I'd need a b/o north and/or a bottom. Wouldn't be too surprised if it gets to 4347 before going upwards for 1000 pips.... (Edit: I guess I have to think what this would imply for correlations, EU at 1.44, AU at 0.83?) for in AU, we might have finished this...
sorry for late reply for EURAUD

i will try it here
Attached Image
  • #5,651
  • Edited 4:42am Jun 12, 2014 4:03am | Edited 4:42am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} sorry for late reply for EURAUD i will try it here {image}
this was one before 1.43644 and i will long it again @ 1.43614 for one norm trade to 1.4422

LONG @ 1.43614

NORM Target @ 1.4422
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Unbenannt.PNG Size: 5 KB
  • #5,652
  • Jun 12, 2014 4:05am Jun 12, 2014 4:05am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} sorry for late reply for EURAUD i will try it here {image}
You long on EAUD, right. What is your TP, if you don't mind me asking ?

I have a very small long on EAUD from 1.4416, might add a few more longs around 1.4340 area if it goes there, will T/P in above 1.4550.

Did exit my DAX short entries yesterday. Again could not resist myself on trying a long, have a long from 9943, will look for 10000 region again for TP. How is your DAX going ? I would have hold my DAX but the only trouble is my broker has 20th June as contract end date, so will exit soon with some green pips, hopefully.
  • #5,653
  • Jun 12, 2014 4:07am Jun 12, 2014 4:07am
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} Cooler here tonight, but heating up again... EU: first b/o south, two little longs stopped at BE, next at 3511 + spread (um). ECad: full position long now, see how that zone holds up. Might have to put that one in 'storage'.
ECAD should run to 1.4709 min and extension 1.4730

Bei mir explodiert gleich der Lüfter vom Rechner so heiß ist es hier.
  • #5,654
  • Jun 12, 2014 4:13am Jun 12, 2014 4:13am
Quoting workingforex
{quote} You long on EAUD, right. What is your TP, if you don't mind me asking ? I have a very small long on EAUD from 1.4416, might add a few more longs around 1.4340 area if it goes there, will T/P in above 1.4550. Did exit my DAX short entries yesterday. Again could not resist myself on trying a long, have a long from 9943, will look for 10000 region again for TP. How is your DAX going ? I would have hold my DAX but the only trouble is my broker has 20th June as contract end date, so will exit soon with some green pips, hopefully.
EURAUD:

if 1.43644 hold minimum normal upmove is to @ 1.4422 as a first TP and second TP is 1.4625
  • #5,655
  • Jun 12, 2014 4:17am Jun 12, 2014 4:17am
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote}
maybe we go again lower to 1.3511 i will load longs here too
  • #5,656
  • Jun 12, 2014 4:31am Jun 12, 2014 4:31am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} ECAD should run to 1.4709 min and extension 1.4730 Bei mir explodiert gleich der Lüfter vom Rechner so heiß ist es hier.
Aiming for 526x myself, but at the look of it we'll at least get a re-test of this zone. So I might try to get out of the upper ones and add more on the retest.

Lüfter: seit dem MT4 update habe ich öfter so manische Lüfterphasen. Vielleicht ist auch einfach der Rechner alt...
Fail better.
  • #5,657
  • Jun 12, 2014 4:32am Jun 12, 2014 4:32am
It’s not unusual during a period of structural change to see the market lose momentum and focus.
The big inter-bank players are being forced out of prop trading through a combination of regulation and Basel III, and market making is also becoming an increasingly difficult proposition for many of them.
The retail market had been taking up some of the slack over the last few years but this market is also in a consolidation phase, becoming more mature with many marginal participants (both brokers and traders) being forced out due to their lack of competitiveness.
Which brings us back to the professional traders, the true backbone of the market, providing pricing and liquidity. In years gone by all professional traders were trained in the inter-bank space but those days are gone. Now the new breed of professional trader will almost certainly start their trading life in the retail space. This is another structural change which the FX marketplace will take some time to adapt to.
So all those aspiring professional traders out there should stay patient and keep the faith. As long as there are currencies, there will be a currency market needing pricing and liquidity. Once the ‘new’ market order rises after this current phase of structural change, the demand for good traders will increase sharply.
  • #5,658
  • Jun 12, 2014 4:35am Jun 12, 2014 4:35am
Quoting Schickeria
... the demand for good traders will increase sharply.
The question is: why should a successful retailer (e.g. someone who can earn his living in the markets on his own terms) try to get into employment?

On a different topic, AEP's view of Japan. Doesn't really correlate with my current UJ short, but nice reading nevertheless:
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Japan to keep printing money for years to come, so learn to enjoy it - Telegraph.pdf   174 KB | 308 downloads
Fail better.
  • #5,659
  • Jun 12, 2014 4:37am Jun 12, 2014 4:37am
Goldman Sachs will short EURUSD

@ 1.3600

SL 1.3680

TP1 : 1.3503
TP2: 1.3350
  • #5,660
  • Jun 12, 2014 4:46am Jun 12, 2014 4:46am
Aussie: Double top or breaktout soon?
Fix up, trade sharp ...
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