Fugazi - Order Flow hot data

EURUSD - Large option at 1.3550(1.91B) attracts active option-related offers on a break above. Bids ahead of 1.350

The full menu looks like this:

1. Thursday: 1.3720(672M) 1.370(749M) 1.360(5.35B) 1.3550(1.91B) 1.350(1.10B)

We may be stuck near this till 10am NY

to me is a sell my friend! 3475 is still calling

Deutsche Bank FX Daily is on the Aussie today!

Do options have impact on spot fx? How do you use this tool?

Made some comments in post #267

for me, they can help explain price action up to 10amNY. If there is little data or other catalyst to move the market, price may be attracted to that area. If you are diligent, you proly could look at the upcoming week of options for a pair and see if there are some large strikes on specific days and have the shape your trade plan. Then of course after 10am NY, PA may pick up.

What I did fail to point out is that there are different types of options. The ones posted for recently for EURUSD are vanilla options. There are holders on either side of price and are valid till the cut time.
Exotic options have other properties. Like DNT, or do not touch, sometimes called a barrier option, where that price may be 'defended' so that it is not touched. These can be pretty profitable if you can identify their location and be part of the final attack that breeches the barrier.

more here http://www.forextraders.com/forex-st...x-trading.html

Geronimo!

Instructions: Read daily.

Wa wa wa!

but recouped in GbpJpy...

did anybody else close their EURUSD short?

EURJPY- stops build above 138.60

EURUSD- offers 1.3585/95

Why Traders Fail. You proly dont want to read this.

Technical Analysis by the big boys.....guess that they did not anticipate Carney Speak either...

ORDERFLOW GAME PLAN June 16th 2014
Planning the week ahead
by JupaFX



In this weekly report, we will try to direct our attention to the currency pairs and assets that are most likely to offer trading opportunities during the coming week, based on a combination of sentiment, orderflow and price action analysis.
1. On the docket for this week
Taking a glance at our calendar http://www.orderflowtrading.com/ForexNews/EventCalendar.aspx we can notice the more important news events for the week. For the coming week starting June 16th 2014, the main events are:

1. Monday: (Sunday: NZD Cons. Conf. And PSI + BOE Quarterly Bulletin) EU CPI, US Empire State + TIC flows + Ind. Prod., NZD House Price Index
2. Tuesday: RBA Minutes, UK CPI + RPI + PPI, GER ZEW, US CPI + Housing Starts + Building permits (bearish expectations), NZD Current Account (bullish expectations)
3. Wednesday: BoE minutes (bullish bias), US Current Account + FOMC, NZD Gdp (bullish expectations)
4. Thursday: SNB Decision, UK Retail Sales, US Philly Fed + Leading Index + Jobless Claims
5. Friday: GER PPI, EU Current Account, CAD Retail Sales + CPI

2. Strong vs. Weak
Looking at the CME FX futures market, we can see that:

1. - DXY has had an inside week, thus a neutral stance with a slight bullish accent
2. - Gbp has a bullish bias to it
3. - Nzd has a bullish bias
4. - Chf has a bearish bias
5. - Eur has a bearish bias

So if we combine and filter the most evident FX pairs to analyze, we come up with:

 

1. 1) EurGbp short bias
2. 2) GbpChf long bias
3. 3) EurNzd short bias
4. 4) Take into account also the rather bearish action on YM where further downside might be warranted

To understand more about strong vs. weak, come over to Orderflowtrading.com and check out our HeatMaps.

3. Sentiment Analysis on relevant assets
Sentiment in the coming week will probably be driven by the FIFA World Cup...or maybe not. The markets seem to be reacted positively to the series of new initiatives launched by the ECB; negatively to still downbeat growth prospects as pointed out by the World Bank; cautiously to the uprising in Iraq. This sense of hesitation seems to push into the future any hope of normalization of rates and growth. The markets still require a combination of accommodative monetary policies which will keep downward pressures on the yield curve and a quite an inflated equity market. The main risk for policymakers remains tied to the ample liquidity in the system, which is pushing asset prices to excessively high levels relative to effective economic conditions in the near term.
USD: sentiment is neutral with positive vibes. The Fed will most likey dominate global market attention next week as there is the two-day FOMC meeting with the statement and full Summary of Economic Projections including the infamous dot plot on Wednesday andYellen’s press conference shortly thereafter. But do not forget the rather unusual timing of former Chairman Bernanke’s speech before the European Securities Exchanges in Zurich just fifteen minutes before Yellen's statement. The key to USD could well lie in Yellen’s press conference as some additional clarity on sequencing exit steps may arise. After the Q1 GDP contraction that might get worse pending another healthcare related spending revision due by the end of the month, and in the wake of greater concern expressed over housing markets, Yellen is unlikely to say that now is the time to expedite exit paths. Plus, there are a couple of other opportunities for delivering some substance: the semi-annual testimony to Congress next month or the keynote address at the annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August. On the data front there's not much to be aware of and expectations are mixed.

Euro: sentiment is negative. The mix of truly disappointing CPI and monetary data, along with the aggressive monetary policy stance, has had a significant downward impact on investor expectations of the average level and volatility of EUR interest rates. After the sharp drop in yields and implied vols, the correction that took place over the past week is not unexpected. In any case, evidence regarding the global economy and policy stance is far from one-way, and current EUR rate market levels are pretty extreme. These broad themes will continue to shape market dynamics in the coming week. Inflation is the key data rubric right now, and on that front there is little fresh information, suggesting no challenge to the low-yield environment from the macro side. With the current monetary policy stance adopted by the ECB, the theme has switched somewhat to other central banks, especially after the surprisingly hawkish comments by the BoE’s Carney.

Gbp: sentiment is positive. The BoE will be in the spotlight again this week with the minutes to the June 5th meeting. The UK will release CPI figures and retail sales. Carney’s recent comments may have been an effort to front-run a hawkish dialogue among MPC members that could be more evident in the minutes. For the record, GBP has risen over 1% versus the USD since Carney’s hawkish comments on Thursday. His remark was that rate hikes “could happen sooner than markets currently expect.”Carney is coming up on his first anniversary at the central bank and it has been a volatile period for him in the new environment. Recall that Carney started with a faulty unemployment rate threshold and guidance to be on hold until later in 2016 and then abandoned that framework and brought forward rate hike risk by a year or so through carrying over theBoC's output gap framework. Now we have this latest shift, which is a u-turn on the “forward guidance stance”: like at the RBNZ and Riksbank (which both have the longest experience when it comes to providing explicit forward rate guidance to markets) forward guidance has not worked. At best, all that low-for-long forward guidance has done is defer volatility. Carney’s change of heart was likely some unknown combination of realistically acknowledging that the UK economy has been stronger than many had anticipated, bowing to a changed MPC consensus with some members having consistently challenged Carney’s views and within a very different culture than Carney was used to at the BoC (we all know that Canadians are much more polite), and coming under the influence of government pressure to cool housing in the context of granting the BoE powers to cap mortgages either to value and/or incomes. The latter argument would be consistent with the possibility that Carney marched with the Canadian federal government's bias to try to cool housing though one cannot prove definitively whether that was by coincidence or design. As a result, consensus on the BoE call is already starting to shift.


4. To sum up: best looking charts & comments

http://www.orderflowtrading.com/Port...02_thumb_1.jpg
Source: tradingview.com

EurGbp Daily chart –differences in monetary policy are driving this pair lower

http://www.orderflowtrading.com/Port...04_thumb_1.jpg
Source: tradingview.com

GbpChf Daily chart – a strong pair top play Gbp sentiment

http://www.orderflowtrading.com/Port...06_thumb_1.jpg
Source: tradingview.com

EurNzd Daily chart– still bearish on the back of the RBNZ's recent stance.

It’s a tough challenge to combine sentiment, price action, technical analysis, and fundamental analysis all together to turn these thoughts in to actionable order flow trade ideas.
As always, good luck out there!

UBS FX Morning Adviser- AUD & Verbal Non-Interventions