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How to flow with the order flow? 26 replies
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DislikedHEY SD, yeah, last couple of weeks have been tough waiting on Uncle Mario. So far, so good. {image}Ignored
Dislikedthks, i like browsing the EURUSD forum and seeing the longs jump in. I dont get it. =/ They have not met uncle Mario?Ignored
Dislikedmost of them do not want to be unplugged. They are happy in the Matrix. Im Still laughing from your EURUSD posts.Ignored
So if we combine and filter the most evident FX pairs to analyze, we come up with:
To understand more about strong vs. weak, keep an eye on heat maps posted to the news feed here.
Sentiment Analysis on relevant assets
The markets should have all the time they need this week, in order to digest the ECB's new measures and the recent NFP print. This week will be anything but intense from a data-perspective, and Monday has no data whatsoever to get the market moving. The general sentiment might come from the Chinese data that came out over the weekend and beat expectations (better trade balance, fuelled by a rise in exports and a big drop in imports). The Aussie will probably respond well to this, but again, there are probably better things to do Monday than stare at screens.
USD: sentiment is neutral. In spite of a dull session on Friday, the NFP print (in line with consensus) shows that the American labor market is improving with the U-6 unemployment rate dropping to 12.2% from 12.3%. However the NFP report was not strong enough to shift the Taper rate and hence the general stance the market could take is “as you were”. As a demonstration of this, the Dow and S&P hit new highs which indicate that investors are not worried about Taper.
AUD: sentiment is positive. With volatility so low in global markets, along with some sort of recovery in the Chinese economy, the Aussie is holding its ground. This shorter term sentiment view can also be enriched by some longer term considerations: Australian terms of trade have continued to slip and there's the question of the gradual drift of the Chinese economy towards a more sustainable – yet much lower – GDP growth rate. Another recent development in Australia is the tough austerity budget proposed by the federal government with the aim of slashing the fiscal deficit from AUD 50bn this fiscal year to AUD30bn next year and further narrowing in future years. This fiscal consolidation, if approved by the Australian Parliament, will be a drag on economic growth as consumer confidence and spending takes a knock.
GBP: sentiment is positive. European markets won’t really matter to the global risk trade next week because the macro release and event schedules are pretty tame. The UK unemployment rate is expected to hit a new low point not reached since early 2009, while the NIESR GDP estimate is showing continued bullish expectations for growth. The accelerating pattern of growth is accompanied by house price pressures that have been partly motivated by the Bank of England’s funding-for-lending scheme that — unlike the ECB’s recently announced program — does not exclude mortgages.
For updates on sentiment as it progresses throughout the week, stay active in our live trader chat.
To sum up: best looking charts & comments
http://www.orderflowtrading.com/Port...e002_thumb.jpgAUDUSD Daily chart – upwards momentum intact
http://www.orderflowtrading.com/Port...e004_thumb.jpgGBPUSD Daily chart – regaining strength into the end of last week
http://www.orderflowtrading.com/Port...e006_thumb.jpg
AUDNZD Daily chart – still bullish
It’s a tough challenge to combine sentiment, price action, technical analysis, and fundamental analysis all together to turn these thoughts in to actionable order flow trade ideas.
Dislikedi said it in GBPUSD and Ill say it here... lack of follow through on that data print would have em worried if I were long... or thinking long cause of pin baloney. {image}Ignored