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Attachments: US Crude Oil with smart VSA and Dark Seasons [only]
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US Crude Oil with smart VSA and Dark Seasons [only]

  • #121
  • Jun 6, 2014 6:29am Jun 6, 2014 6:29am
Quoting JoeNY
Attack like a Lion Don! Like a mutha F-in Lion! {image}
If I may interject….. LOL!!!
+1
  • #122
  • Jun 6, 2014 6:33am Jun 6, 2014 6:33am
My Man!

You got to have passion for the something if you truly want to succeed in it. What can I say... I'm a passionate guy for trading...

Quoting Seth1981
{quote} If I may interject….. LOL!!! +1
SPC * Swollen PocketZ Crew!
  • #123
  • Jun 6, 2014 7:20am Jun 6, 2014 7:20am
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} support and resistance areas should be viewed as blocks/zones as oppose to lines...but i see 103.3 to 103.6 as a zone... as price has found support and resistance there and thus swung... Above that one can argue there is an extention to that all the way to 103.8...that is why it becomes difficult to trade in a choppy area...
oops I hadn't considered Wed's chop thanks
  • #124
  • Jun 6, 2014 7:49am Jun 6, 2014 7:49am
Support @ 101-102 continues to sustain..

The way I see Bull path appears clear now
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Hello World!
  • #125
  • Jun 6, 2014 5:55pm Jun 6, 2014 5:55pm
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} I am going to wait for a little while and see how this hourly candle develops.. If it ends up as a bearish pinbar then I will be short... as price is close to 61.8 fib level which has been a pattern in this down trend; plus we made a lower low yesterday; hence until we don't take out the last top we are still bearish... As far as 'gaps' are concerned.. I have one at 101.8 region... Plus an ab=cd evaluation also projects price at 101.2 to 101.5 zone...(Plus when I see the market history there is some support in that area... Taking these things...

Hello Waleed you say that you have a gap at 101.8 region on what date did this occur and on what charts do you follow that give you those gaps ?

I believe that we will get there sometime soon, but personally I did not trade yesterday Friday because of NFP as I am of the opinion that the liquidity is not there to let us reach our open gap, liquidity gap or S&D areas which I now perceive as the same destination for making a trade.

Have a good weekend and all the best for next week.
  • #126
  • Jun 9, 2014 4:55am Jun 9, 2014 4:55am
Quoting don555
{quote} Hello Waleed you say that you have a gap at 101.8 region on what date did this occur and on what charts do you follow that give you those gaps ? I believe that we will get there sometime soon, but personally I did not trade yesterday Friday because of NFP as I am of the opinion that the liquidity is not there to let us reach our open gap, liquidity gap or S&D areas which I now perceive as the same destination for making a trade. Have a good weekend and all the best for next week.

Hi Don

Yes so I have 2 gaps between 102.40-102.41 on june 6 and another between 101.88-101.89 on june 5th... These are visible on the 5 minute chart but are rather hard to spot...

As for now... I have gotten out of the trade that I had said that I was going to take; but I liquidated that position as there seems to be good support on 102.3 level...

Currently I am seeing pa and the possibility of forming a new high ; which might be an early indicator that the trend is about to go upward... still have to wait and see...

Personally I would like to see one more leg down (Volume does not support this current rise) and then move up higher to hit our seasonal highs in august/september....

As for the gaps even though they are there; there is no guarantee as to when they will be filled now; I guess this is where context and discretion is used I suppose... because historically crude hits an interim bottom on june/july and peaks out in august and september... so there is a possibility that those gaps might be filled on the descent from the seasonal highs... (still to soon to say)

In an older post of yours; you mentioned you use ema's...Can you please tell me what you use; because I tend to use 150 and 365 ema on the 1hr chart for support and resistance levels...

Good luck to you too...
  • #127
  • Jun 9, 2014 9:28am Jun 9, 2014 9:28am
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the Opec Cartel has shouted very loud it wont allow oil to fall bellow $100, there are some production problems in libya and USA oil inventorias has been fallin,
look like there is big bull behind this move, i think long term is down but $108-110 area before a collapse in price cannot be ruled out.
  • #128
  • Jun 9, 2014 5:07pm Jun 9, 2014 5:07pm
is it supposed to retrace?
  • #129
  • Jun 9, 2014 7:58pm Jun 9, 2014 7:58pm
I think I said like few dozen times in the past 10 days that my sentiment for Crude is bullish with support around 101 and 102

and here it is @ 104

looks good, feels good to be right :-)

Thank you all for your contribution!
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Hello World!
  • #130
  • Jun 9, 2014 8:48pm Jun 9, 2014 8:48pm
Quoting ClockTrader
I think I said like few dozen times in the past 10 days that my sentiment for Crude is bullish with support around 101 and 102 and here it is @ 104 looks good, feels good to be right :-) Thank you all for your contribution! {image}
Hey CT, what will be the maximum High for Crude based on Technicals and to some extent Fundamentally.
Currently sentiment is looking very Bullish.
Thanking you in advance.
  • #131
  • Jun 9, 2014 9:35pm Jun 9, 2014 9:35pm
taking a light short at 104.65 to 103.80 area to trade a possible retracemente from resistance,
if USA Oil inventories come high i think were gonna be range for some days before a next leg up, day before the report prices should continue to edge lower temporarly.

there is a nice example in Natural Gas Prices, there is a wall of resistance at 4.70, when Russia and China made the trade prices spiked up but USA Natural Gas Rising inventories have the price capped and have sent them down many times even when analyst suggested a fast trip to $5 ( probably 90% usa data manipulation to cap the price )

this is my current trade, is a light short, if sl is hitted is discounted from the last Oil winning trade.

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  • #132
  • Jun 9, 2014 10:07pm Jun 9, 2014 10:07pm
Quoting hamidshah.pk
{quote} Hey CT, what will be the maximum High for Crude based on Technicals and to some extent Fundamentally. Currently sentiment is looking very Bullish. Thanking you in advance.
There is a peak out pattern on the charts, check my last image posted here.

However, that peak out does not essentially mean a peak out as per my clock patterns. A possible small dip / correction is possible. A peak out on broad level is not on my cards yet.
Hello World!
  • #133
  • Edited 11:53pm Jun 9, 2014 11:15pm | Edited 11:53pm
Quoting acidguy
taking a light short at 104.65 to 103.80 area to trade a possible retracemente from resistance, if USA Oil inventories come high i think were gonna be range for some days before a next leg up, day before the report prices should continue to edge lower temporarly. there is a nice example in Natural Gas Prices, there is a wall of resistance at 4.70, when Russia and China made the trade prices spiked up but USA Natural Gas Rising inventories have the price capped and have sent them down many times even when analyst suggested a fast trip to $5 ( probably...
Price is exactly at the 3 highs formed this year so if we are going to retrace it should be now but on other hand i don't think we are ready yet to go higher like 108. Maybe if inventories tomorrow support such a move but based on past years it's still early.
  • #134
  • Jun 10, 2014 12:32am Jun 10, 2014 12:32am
Quoting atom3
{quote} Price is exactly at the 3 highs formed this year so if we are going to retrace it should be now but on other hand i don't think we are ready yet to go higher like 108. Maybe if inventories tomorrow support such a move but based on past years it's still early.
Check post 2 of this thread, the season (May-June) belongs to Bulls. While a small correction cannot be ruled, but, that does not mean its time to short IMHO.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...41#post7501441
Hello World!
  • #135
  • Jun 10, 2014 6:29am Jun 10, 2014 6:29am
Quoting ClockTrader
I think I said like few dozen times in the past 10 days that my sentiment for Crude is bullish with support around 101 and 102 and here it is @ 104 looks good, feels good to be right :-) Thank you all for your contribution! {image}

CT well done you gave us plenty of warning what to expect.

As a matter of interest where did you get in and why ?
  • #136
  • Jun 10, 2014 6:50am Jun 10, 2014 6:50am
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote}Currently I am seeing pa and the possibility of forming a new high ; which might be an early indicator that the trend is about to go upward... still have to wait and see... Personally I would like to see one more leg down (Volume does not support this current rise) and then move up higher to hit our seasonal highs in august/september....
A new high has been made; and now shorting is not a good idea. Perhaps this is the start of a new wave (trend); we have to wait and see... It is crucial to see 105 area broken as that will confirm more upside and fit in with the seasonal highs that are expected...

Broadly I agree with CT's analysis; but I don't agree that May is a bullish month...for me end of june and july is when price really starts testing highs and peaks out in august/september....Maybe this time the uptrend is here in early june...( we have to wait and see...) Tomorrow there is also an opec meeting; which should give more direction as to where oil could head in the near term...

another thing to watch for trend direction; is the loonie a it is correlated with Us Oil; and since usdcad generally trends lower in the summer months; Oil moves higher...

Right now USDCAD is trending lower; so this can be used as another indicator for confirmation...
  • #137
  • Jun 10, 2014 8:35am Jun 10, 2014 8:35am
Quoting don555
{quote} CT well done you gave us plenty of warning what to expect. As a matter of interest where did you get in and why ?
I did not trade / invest in Crude. I was only sharing my views here. I will observe crude for the next 6 months and would like to invest in Crude using "Dark Seasons" as mentioned in Post 2 of this thread.

I am focused on investing in Gold these days.
Hello World!
  • #138
  • Jun 10, 2014 9:28am Jun 10, 2014 9:28am
im exiting my short Oil trades at 104.30 with some little profit, im personally amazed with the current down move, was not expecting it after news got released, a spike to 105 land for positive data, then started to fall quickly making lower lows M30.

would love to test some indicators related to volumes to have more accurate info about reversal and better entries, so far the most Accurate Indicator i have been using the last 2 months is "Parabolic Sars" (wow accuracy) sum it "RSI" and u have a powerful combination.
  • #139
  • Edited 10:23am Jun 10, 2014 10:07am | Edited 10:23am
What up Acid,

You don't need volume and any other crap. Check out this thread Acid if you haven't already. It's a gem. FX Institutional guys talking the game. They quote even if they had total volume, they can't see any use for it. Futures/Commodities we have it... I don't use..

Supply & Demand aka Order Flow aka Price Action

1. First top
2. Second top
3. Cap on Price
E. Price Engulfs previous low. Price is saying I want to go lower.
E. And yet again another engulf pin. Price is saying I want to go lower
4. Wishful thinking longs after a rally and... BOOM!
Red Line: is a buyers zone. Price will bounce back up and continue long or fall through and continue short possibly taking the shape of what will then be a sellers zone aka "the speed bumps."

You can just trade the speed bumps alone everyday.

The sky is falling .. almost everything is dumping... This is my world... SELL! SELL! SELL! Crude, Soybeans, Corn, Euro.. I LOVE IT!

Attached Image


Quoting acidguy
im exiting my short Oil trades at 104.30 with some little profit, im personally amazed with the current down move, was not expecting it after news got released, a spike to 105 land for positive data, then started to fall quickly making lower lows M30. would love to test some indicators related to volumes to have more accurate info about reversal and better entries, so far the most Accurate Indicator i have been using the last 2 months is "Parabolic Sars" (wow accuracy) sum it "RSI" and u have a powerful combination.
SPC * Swollen PocketZ Crew!
  • #140
  • Edited 11:14am Jun 10, 2014 10:59am | Edited 11:14am
Price is hanging on the 50 ema on the hourly; and there is a possibility of a doji being formed; which might be an early sign that price wants to pause and reverse...

but still its to early to trade this; one should see how Price reacts in this level first... Some hidden divergence is forming aswell.
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